集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2025/11/24 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC主力收盘价 -5.2↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1142.100 | 1358.2 -7.70↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 +3.60↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 426.50 | 210.40 +4.30↑ | | | EC合约基差 -12.50↓ | 70.77 | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 135↑ | 16096 | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 281.70↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1639.37 | 1,107.85 -130.57↓ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） -57.82↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 集运指数（欧线）：02 短期补贴水，中期震荡市 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2512 | 1,790.0 | 1.57% | 6,881 | 14,520 | -1,922 | 0.47 | | 0.90 | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,605.0 | -1.16% | 20,006 | 38,043 | 759 | 0.53 | | 0.65 | | | EC2604 | 1,157.7 | -0.92% | 2,180 | 15,618 | 197 | 0.14 | | 0.13 | | | EC2512 - E ...

Report Information - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - Although the actual demand may not support a large price increase, the shipping rates are likely to have bottomed out and are expected to recover. It is recommended to maintain a bullish position on the December contract [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Expectations: With the arrival of the year - end peak season, market expectations have improved, and shipping companies have continued to raise their quotes for November and December. However, considering the current average demand and the decline of the SCFIS index, the price increase may not fully materialize [8]. - Regional Situation: The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, and the Red Sea is unlikely to resume normal shipping in the short term [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Continue to maintain a bullish position on the December contract and buy on dips [8]. 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From October 27 to 31, the China Export Container Shipping Market showed positive trends. The overall transportation demand was stable, and the freight rates of most routes continued to rise, driving up the comprehensive index [9]. - European Route: In October, the euro - zone's composite PMI rose to 52.2, and the freight rates in the European route continued to increase. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Route: The market conditions were similar to those of the European route. The supply - demand fundamentals were stable, and the spot booking prices continued to rise. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $1983/TEU, up 12.4% from the previous period [9]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS Index: On November 3, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1208.71, down 7.9% from October 27; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1267.15, up 14.4% from October 27 [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - Futures Data: The report provides trading data for various contracts on November 4, including EC2512, EC2602, etc., such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, and trading volume [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing data such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, etc. [17][18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three main factors driving the recent increase in shipping rates, including proactive price increases by shipping companies, geopolitical tensions boosting market sentiment, and strikes at key European ports disrupting supply chains [4]. Group 1: Price Increases by Shipping Companies - Major shipping companies such as Mediterranean Shipping Company, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have announced price increases for November, with rates for a 20-foot container rising to the range of $1,500 to $1,700 and for a 40-foot container to $2,500 to $2,700, reflecting an increase of nearly 30% compared to the end of October [8]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - China's response to the U.S. 301 investigation, which includes imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels, has significantly boosted market sentiment. The Chinese Ministry of Transport announced the implementation of these fees starting October 14, while also launching an investigation into the impact on the shipping and shipbuilding industries [10][11]. Group 3: Supply Chain Disruptions - Strikes at key European ports, specifically Rotterdam and Antwerp, have led to cargo delays and operational disruptions, resulting in capacity losses for shipping companies [13]. Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, current prices reflect some expectations of price increases, but further upward movement will require new catalysts, with a forecast of wide fluctuations. In the medium to long term, expectations of the Red Sea reopening may suppress the valuation of long-term contracts, maintaining a bearish outlook [5][15]. - The strategy suggests capturing structural opportunities in the market, particularly focusing on the spread between contracts 2512 and 2606 [5].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the main contract of the shipping index (European line) opening at 1101.6 points and reaching a high of 1159.8 points, reflecting a 4.94% increase [1] - The shipping index (European line) is currently exhibiting a strong upward trend, with institutions providing various outlooks on its future performance [1] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.5, falling below expectations and indicating ongoing pressure in the manufacturing sector, particularly in Germany and France [1] Group 2 - The "Istanbul Bridge" vessel has commenced its journey from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port to the UK’s largest container port, marking the launch of the world's first fast shipping route between China and Europe, which is expected to enhance international logistics for high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce [1] - Shipping companies are continuing to lower prices to attract cargo, with Mediterranean Shipping reducing rates to $890/TEU and $1490/FEU, while Hapag-Lloyd has adjusted some voyages to $935/TEU and $1435/FEU [1] - Current market sentiment remains weak, with ongoing pressure on spot prices and limited cargo volume ahead of the holiday season, leading to potential further price reductions if shipping companies do not implement effective capacity reduction measures [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to enter a high-level oscillation phase, waiting for a direction decision. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. - The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc., it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season, and it is recommended to refer to the price range. For other non-ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to their respective fundamentals [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions [2]. - For special commodities, trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - In the new energy sector, it is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market is expected to enter high-level oscillation. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. It is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. Commodity Sector - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, it is recommended to go long at low prices in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to a sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, coking coal futures are expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Coke is also recommended to go long at low prices as the coking profit continues to repair [2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season. Different trading strategies are given for other non-ferrous metals according to their fundamentals [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - **New Energy**: It is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as it is a off - season contract, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The risk for the December contract lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [6][7][9] - The supply of container ship capacity is affected by factors such as ship delivery and empty - sail filling. The freight rate is influenced by supply and demand, economic conditions, and shipping company strategies. [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 80,906.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 49,119.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1496.90, 1284.00, 1445.70, 2136.00, 1358.00, and 1696.70 respectively. [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210; HPL's quotes for the first half and second half of September were 1435/2235. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes for the second half of August and September were 1510/2620 and 1410/2420 respectively. [1][3] - The final delivery settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the freight rate center continues to decline. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. [5][6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU, and the capacity in week 35 was 30.84 TEU. The average weekly capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 36/37/38/39 were 326,500/276,000/314,500/325,500 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in October was 282,300 TEU. [4] - In September, the two empty sailings of the PA alliance were filled. In week 38, the FE4 route was filled by HMM AQUAMARINE (13,788 TEU), and in week 37, the FE3 route was filled by HMM ALGECIRAS (23,964 TEU). HPL announced information about two additional ships in October. [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 176,880 TEU. [9] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the fourth quarter, Western holidays are concentrated, and shipping companies usually adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level. However, if ships from the US route are transferred to the European route, it may put pressure on European route prices. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry (European route) is rated as "volatile" [4] Core Viewpoints - The extension of the tariff exemption period may not reproduce the first - round market for the US route, and the transmission effect of the second - round exemption on the European route will be significantly weakened. The European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - round 90 - day tariff exemption period US route market review - From April to May 2025, due to the change of US tariff policy, the US route market experienced three typical stages: short - term pulse - type rebound period, high - level shock adjustment period, and supply - demand weakening downward period. The overall market trend was weaker than the initial optimistic expectations [8][9] 2. Tariff exemption period extension, US route may not reproduce the first - round market - The freight rate upward cycle driven by the first - round tariff exemption policy was short - lived, with a particularly short high - level platform period. Constrained by high inventory and the approaching off - season, the second - round 90 - day tariff exemption window will have a significantly weakened marginal stimulation effect on new demand. On August 12, the tariff exemption was extended for 90 days, but the US route is difficult to reproduce the first - round market [15][16][20] 3. Second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route is weakened - Before the tariff exemption, the European route market faced supply - demand surplus and seasonal off - season pressure. During the first - round exemption, the European route freight rate was strongly supported. However, due to the US route's difficulty in reproducing the first - round market and the shipping companies' conservative deployment strategy, the second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route will be significantly weakened [28] 4. European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution - In August, the European route freight rate declined from the top due to increased supply and weakened demand. In the traditional off - season from September to October, the downward trend is established. Short - term bearish thinking is maintained, and the strategy of shorting October is recommended. If there is an unexpected suspension of voyages, the trading logic may switch, and opportunities such as going long on December or 10 - 12 reverse spreads can be considered [3][32][33]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the shipping index (European route) has seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 2% to reach 1432.5 points [1]