博览宏图 20260105 摘要 中国"十五"规划（2026-2030）是实现 2035 年人均 GDP 达到中等 发达国家水平的关键阶段，需保持实际增速在 4.17%左右，参考波兰 2024 年人均 GDP 约 2.4 万美元，未来十年名义 GDP 增速需达约 5.06%。 预计中国未来几年经济增长目标将适度下调，2026 年两会可能设定 4.5%-5%的目标区间，旨在缓解债务扩张压力，避免过度依赖刺激政策， 实现更可持续的 4%左右的长期稳定发展。 未来五年，中国面临战略机遇与风险挑战并存的局面，需充分发挥超大 规模市场、完备产业链、丰富人才资源和制度自信四大优势，增强应对 外部复杂环境的信心。 中国供给侧改革将聚焦高质量发展与科技创新，建设现代化产业体系， 巩固实体经济，加快科技自立自强，发展新质生产力，并前瞻布局量子 科技、生物制造等未来产业。 保持制造业合理比重对维护国家竞争力至关重要，避免过早去工业化， 需提升产业链自主可控水平，确保制造业在经济中占据稳固地位，借鉴 美国制造业回流经验。 Q&A 规模市场带来的内需潜力、完备的产业链体系、丰富的人才资源以及制度自信。 这些优势使我们从过去更多强调战 ...

中经记者 杜丽娟 北京报道 在"十五五"即将开启之际，学界围绕"十五五"时期中国经济发展战略的特殊性、紧迫性及核心任务展开 深入探讨。 此外，还要坚持"质的有效提升"与"量的合理增长"并重，深化结构调整。党的二十届四中全会明确 了"十五五"高质量发展需实现"全要素生产率稳步提升""居民消费率明显提高"，这要求宏观政策既要推 动供给结构优化，也要着力提振消费、调整总需求结构，避免单纯追求"质"而忽视"量"，要在高质量发 展框架下实现"质"与"量"的平衡。 与此同时，还要破除约束释放增长潜力，避免"差距即潜力"的逻辑误区。陈彦斌强调，潜力并非源 于"差距"，而是通过发挥基于自身特点的优势才能获得。 经测算，若宏观经济结构得到优化，潜在增长速度至少可提升1个百分点，因此"十五五"政策改革需着 力去除各类约束，将优势转化为实际增长动力。陈彦斌提出三大政策建议： 一是巩固供给侧优势，推动工业体系"做优做强"。改变以往"做大"导向，通过保持制造业合理比重为工 业体系完整性提供支撑，加快补短板、锻长板，推进工业智能化、绿色化、融合化发展，持续强化中国 工业在全球的竞争优势，为中国经济长期增长奠定基础。 二是发力需求侧改革， ...

在外部需求波动与国内经济结构转型的双重压力下，激活内循环已成为推动高质量发展的关键命题。91 团帮的消费激励模式，通过"立减金+生态赋能"的创新机制，为破解消费动能不足、供需错配等难题提 供了新思路，其本质是以消费端改革撬动全产业链升级，或成畅通国内大循环的实践样本。 机制创新：从"单次让利"到"价值循环" 传统促销依赖价格战，易陷入"折扣依赖-利润压缩-服务弱化"的恶性循环。91团帮的突破在于构建"消费 即积累"的闭环：用户每笔消费获得立减金，可抵扣后续消费，形成"消费-积累-再消费"的良性循环。某 餐饮品牌通过该模式实现客单价提升18%，复购率显著提高，印证了"长期价值积累"对用户黏性的强化 作用。这种设计将商家给予平台的利润转化为用户资产，避免资金沉淀风险，同时通过数据追踪优化产 品结构，实现"成本中心"向"价值中心"的转变。 其核心逻辑与"建设强大国内市场"的政策导向高度契 合，通过需求侧扩容为制造业提供稳定订单预期，直接响应了内循环对"需求牵引供给"的要求。 生态赋能：打破"市场分割"的实践路径 内循环的堵点常源于区域壁垒与渠道割裂。91团帮通过"线上商城+线下社区体验中心"的融合，形 成"50%线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is crucial for achieving high-quality development goals in China, and its strength determines a country's competitive position in the global landscape [1][2]. Group 1: AI Investment and Development - AI investment is characterized as both a revolution and a bubble, indicating that the current investment trend in AI is unlikely to diminish [1]. - Major global tech companies view AI technology as a symbol of technological leadership and market share [1]. Group 2: Institutional Environment for AI - The advancement of AI requires a supportive institutional environment, which must be established through reforms [2]. - Three key directions for aligning AI development with supply-side and demand-side reforms include: 1. Balancing the creative and destructive aspects of new technologies through institutional construction, ensuring that creativity outweighs destruction [2]. 2. Ensuring that the elderly can contribute and receive support through institutional frameworks [2]. 3. Deepening household registration system reforms to unlock demand-side benefits [2].

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting development paths of China and the United States, highlighting how China's rapid infrastructure development and engineering-driven governance have outpaced the U.S. in certain areas [3][5][27] - It emphasizes the need for the U.S. to revitalize its manufacturing base while China must shift from construction-driven growth to a more service-oriented economy [27][32] Infrastructure and Development - The comparison of train schedules from 1915 to 2025 illustrates the stagnation of U.S. infrastructure despite its historical strength in manufacturing and transportation networks [1][2] - China's investment in infrastructure over the past two decades has created a stark contrast, with high-speed rail networks significantly outpacing U.S. developments [2][3] Governance and Economic Models - Dan Wang's framework categorizes China as "engineer-led" and the U.S. as "lawyer-led," suggesting that this structural difference contributes to the U.S.'s challenges in implementing significant reforms [3][4] - The article argues that the U.S. legalistic approach may hinder innovation and responsiveness to new economic challenges, while China's engineering focus allows for rapid project execution [4][5] Manufacturing and Innovation - The article highlights the consequences of U.S. manufacturing outsourcing, leading to a hollowing out of its industrial base and a decline in engineering expertise [6][10] - It points out that China's manufacturing capabilities have been bolstered by a large pool of engineers who have gained practical knowledge through hands-on experience [8][10] Economic Transition - The need for China to transition from an investment-driven economy to one that emphasizes consumption and service provision is emphasized [5][27] - The U.S. is encouraged to focus on restoring its manufacturing capabilities to meet the needs of its population, particularly in housing and infrastructure [27][32] Employment and Service Sector - The article discusses the structural employment challenges in China, where the service sector must expand to absorb a growing workforce [30][31] - It suggests that improving wage levels and working conditions can stimulate consumer spending and economic growth in China [31][32] Global Economic Dynamics - The article notes that the competition in high-tech industries, such as electric vehicles and AI, reflects China's growing capabilities and the need for innovation in both countries [12][27] - It warns of the potential for economic disparity as a small elite in the U.S. gains disproportionate influence over economic outcomes, contrasting with China's broader growth model [21][22][26]

Group 1 - The core issue in the Chinese economy is insufficient consumer demand, particularly highlighted during periods of rapid production capacity growth [1] - Consumer spending accounts for only 40% of GDP in China, compared to 80% in the US and 60%-70% in other developing countries like India, indicating a significant demand shortfall [1] - The long-standing focus of macroeconomic policy has been on supply-side reforms aimed at enhancing productivity, stemming from historical shortages and low productivity levels [1] Group 2 - There is a call for a shift towards demand-side reforms, emphasizing the importance of improving the social security system to boost consumption [2] - Enhancements in social security are seen as crucial for addressing income inequality and ensuring social stability, which in turn can lead to substantial changes in consumer spending [2]

Core Insights - The core argument presented by Fan Gang emphasizes the long-standing issue of insufficient consumer demand in China's economy, particularly highlighted by the disparity in consumption as a percentage of GDP compared to other countries [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Demand - Fan Gang indicates that consumer spending constitutes approximately 40% of China's GDP, significantly lower than the United States at 80% and other developing countries like India at 60-70% [1]. - The current economic policies have predominantly focused on supply-side reforms, which have roots in historical contexts of scarcity and low productivity [1]. Group 2: Social Security and Consumption - The improvement of the social security system is identified as a crucial factor that could enhance consumer spending, addressing issues related to wealth disparity and social stability [2].

Core Insights - The main issue in the Chinese economy is insufficient consumer demand, which becomes more pronounced as production capacity rapidly increases [1][2] - The proportion of consumption in GDP is significantly lower in China compared to other countries, with consumer spending accounting for only 40% of GDP, while in the US it is around 80% and in other developing countries like India it ranges from 60% to 70% [1] - There has been a historical emphasis on supply-side reforms in macroeconomic policy, focusing on enhancing productivity, which stems from past experiences of shortages and low productivity [1] Demand-Side Reform - There is a call for a shift towards demand-side reforms, with a particular emphasis on improving the social security system to boost consumption [2] - The social security system is seen as crucial for addressing income inequality and ensuring social stability, which in turn can lead to significant changes in consumer spending [2]

Group 1: Economic Transformation - China's economic development is heavily reliant on population dividends, with a significant amount of previously underutilized labor being mobilized post-reform, leading to substantial productivity gains[2] - The traditional mindset of prioritizing investment over consumption has resulted in production surplus and insufficient consumption, necessitating a shift towards demand-side reforms to stimulate domestic consumption[2][22] Group 2: Labor Value and Distribution - Labor value is crucial for ensuring fair distribution and promoting consumption, with initial distribution being the most fundamental aspect influenced by market forces[3][28] - The current labor market dynamics indicate a need to stabilize and enhance labor value, which is determined by the balance of power between labor and capital, influenced by supply and demand in the labor market[3][10] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Labor demand is influenced by total demand, which includes both domestic and foreign components, with domestic demand being significantly affected by income distribution[4][34] - The reduction in labor supply is a prevailing trend, with a shrinking labor population and extended working hours contributing to a challenging employment landscape[6][43] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Recent policies, such as the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," aim to address the root causes of low consumption, emphasizing income growth and service sector development to enhance employment and consumption[9][65] - There is a pressing need for labor protection laws to mitigate excessive working hours, which exacerbate employment pressures and hinder job creation[8][64]

Group 1: Economic Transformation Insights - The core theme of the event was "Transforming Chinese Economy: Pathways and Prospects," focusing on macroeconomic background, opportunities, challenges, and policy directions [2] - Liu Qiao emphasized that China's strategy to maintain growth is through productivity enhancement, framing the US-China trade friction as a competition of total factor productivity (TFP) rather than a trade imbalance issue [4] - Liu Qiao noted that despite a decline in TFP growth, the "new quality productivity" strategy centered on technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and structural reform could restore TFP growth to 2%, supporting a sustainable GDP growth of 5% in the future [4] Group 2: Inflation and Demand Challenges - Color analyzed the current deflationary pressures in China, highlighting that both CPI and PPI are on a downward trend, with CPI recently turning negative, indicating increasing deflationary pressure [6] - The main causes of this deflation include strong supply capacity, weak demand, and tight monetary policy, with GDP growth projected at 5.3% and industrial value-added growth at 6.4% for the first half of 2025, while retail sales growth is only 5% [6][8] - Color pointed out that structural and long-term characteristics of deflation are evident, with traditional manufacturing facing overcapacity and a shift in demand towards high-end sectors [8] Group 3: Consumption and Trade Structure - Tang Yao focused on the need to develop consumer demand in China to lay a foundation for long-term economic growth, noting that while goods consumption is comparable to the US, service consumption is significantly lower [10] - The booming concert market and local sports leagues indicate a strong consumer willingness for service consumption, with the service sector seen as a key area for consumption growth [10] - Tang Yao observed that despite the turbulence caused by the Trump administration, global trade has shown resilience, with China's trade becoming more diversified and increasing integration with emerging economies [10]