【大河财立方消息】近日，中国保险资产管理业协会公布了2025年下半年保险资产管理业投资者信心调 查结果。本次调查覆盖宏观环境、市场判断、配置计划和收益预期四个方面，共有122家保险机构参 与，包括36家保险资产管理机构和86家保险公司。 债券市场方面，多数保险机构对下半年债券市场持中性偏乐观态度，预计10年期国债收益率将在1.4% 到1.6%区间，中高等级信用债收益率在1.5%到2.0%区间。下半年看好超长期特别国债、银行永续债、 可转债以及10年期以上信用债，认为经济基本面、货币政策宽松力度和市场流动性将是影响下半年债券 市场的主要因素。 A股市场方面，多数保险机构对下半年A股市场持较乐观态度，预计上证综指大概率维持在3200点至 3800点之间。下半年，保险机构更为看好沪深300相关股票，看好医药生物、电子、银行、计算机、通 信和国防军工等行业，关注人工智能、红利资产、新质生产力、高分红高股息和创新医药等投资领域， 认为企业盈利增速是影响下半年A股市场的主要因素。 境外投资偏好方面，港股投资下半年受到青睐，同时有四成保险机构还看好债券投资和黄金投资。 责编:陶纪燕 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 宏观经济 ...

来源：经济参考报 最新发布的监管数据显示，截至2025年二季度末，保险资金运用余额突破36万亿元，同比增长17.4%； 约4.74万亿元投向股票及证券投资基金，直投股票规模达3.06万亿元，较上年同期净增约1万亿元，险资 权益配置正稳步增长。 保险资金"长钱长投"正加速落地。从截至今年上半年金融监管总局已批复的保险资金长期投资试点来 看，合计总额已达2220亿元。今年新获批的机构中，泰康资产旗下的私募基金泰康稳行已于6月完成首 笔投资交易，太保资产出资设立的太保致远1号私募股权基金也于7月成立并进入运行阶段。 有业内分析指出，政策引导与权益市场回暖共同推动险资"长钱长投"落地，机构偏好从久期匹配和收益 改善出发，重点向价值股、盈利绩优和高股息标的倾斜。行业调查也显示，多数险企将股票列为下半年 首选配置方向。 股票直投金额同比增长近万亿元 监管数据显示，截至2025年二季度末，保险机构已将约4.74万亿元资金投向股票及证券投资基金，其 中，直投股票的规模为30686亿元，证券投资基金规模达到16604亿元。与去年同期相比，保险资金对股 票的直接投资金额大幅增长约1万亿元。 具体来看，2024年二季度末，财产险公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses, it predicts the price trends of major futures contracts on August 25, 2025, and also analyzes the market conditions on August 22, 2025, along with the expected trends for the month of August 2025 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast for August 25, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4500 and 4550 points, and support levels at 4394 and 4360 points [2][31]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and silver futures contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts, such as CU2510, AL2510, etc., are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, while fuel oil futures contract FU2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [6][7]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, while Y2601 is likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.2 Market Conditions on August 22, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 22, major stock index futures contracts, such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and showed strong upward momentum. The A - share market also performed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to 3825.76 points [19][26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 22, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened slightly lower, fluctuated weakly, and closed at 107.660 yuan, down 0.18% [46]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then declined, closing at 773.40 yuan/gram, down 0.36%. Silver futures contract AG2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 9192 yuan/kilogram, up 0.36% [52][57]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts showed different degrees of upward or downward fluctuations. For example, copper futures contract CU2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [63]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 493.6 yuan/barrel, up 1.42%. Fuel oil futures contract FU2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated upward, and closed at 2779 yuan/ton, up 2.47% [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 opened slightly higher and fluctuated downward, while Y2601 opened flat, fluctuated upward, and closed at 8458 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [138][141]. 3.3 Expected Trends for August 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF and IH being likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, while IC and IM are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts are expected to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [46][50]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures are likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, and silver futures are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [52][58]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts are expected to have a wide - range or strong - wide - range fluctuation [63][69]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Different agricultural product futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as M2601 being likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and Y2601 being likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.4 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025 [8]. - The central bank will conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on August 25, 2025, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan this month [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments jointly issued a document to regulate the rare - earth industry [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments solicited public opinions on the "Rules for Internet Platform Price Behaviors" [9].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise of the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to further catalyze the inflow of personal and institutional funds, indicating significant potential for residents' equity asset allocation, particularly in the non-bank financial sector, which is viewed positively for strategic allocation opportunities as the fundamentals improve [1] Group 1: Securities Industry - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 3.01 trillion yuan, a 21% increase week-on-week, with a cumulative average daily trading volume of 1.75 trillion yuan by August 22, representing a 90% year-on-year increase [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised and officially implemented the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which aims to guide the industry towards more concentrated development and differentiated growth for small and medium-sized institutions [2] - Market trading activity continues to rise, with an expansion in margin financing and securities lending, as well as increased self-owned equity positions and robust overseas business, which are expected to lead to better-than-expected performance for securities firms [3] Group 2: Insurance Industry - According to a recent survey by the China Insurance Asset Management Association, insurance institutions have shown a significant rebound in confidence regarding the A-share and bond markets for the second half of 2025, with stocks being the preferred investment asset [4] - As of June 30, the balance of insurance funds reached 36.23 trillion yuan, an 8.9% increase from the beginning of the year, with a continued increase in equity and bond allocations while reducing bank deposits and non-standard investments [4] - The stable long-term interest rates and improved asset yield expectations are expected to enhance the return on equity (ROE) for insurance companies, leading to a potential recovery in price-to-book (PB) valuations, with recommendations for undervalued companies like China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance [4] Group 3: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guosen Securities, Dongfang Securities, China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, Jiangsu Jinzhong, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and others [5] Group 4: Beneficiary Stocks - Beneficiary stocks include CICC, Tonghuashun, Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, and New China Life Insurance [6]

年内，险资在市场上的表现愈发活跃，下半年将有哪些投资侧重？8月24日，北京商报记者了解到，中国保险资产管理业协会（以下简称"保险资管业协 会"）最新调查显示，股票是下半年我国保险机构首选的投资资产，多数保险机构对下半年A股市场持较乐观态度。这一趋势在监管披露的数据中也得到了 印证，今年二季度末，险资运用余额已突破36万亿元大关，其中股票投资余额较上年末增长47.57%，占比提升至8.8%。 一组统计数据为这轮"入市潮"提供了最直观的证据。 资产配置偏好方面，保险资管业协会近日公布的2025年下半年保险资产管理业投资者信心调查结果显示，股票是下半年我国保险机构首选的投资资产，其次 是债券和证券投资基金。多数保险机构预期下半年各类资产配置比例与2025年初基本保持一致，部分保险机构有可能适度或微幅增加股票和债券投资。 在低利率环境与政策引导的双重驱动下，保险机构正以历史性力度加码股票投资。金融监管总局披露的数据显示，截至2025年二季度末，险资运用余额已达 到36.23万亿元。其中股票投资余额较2024年末增长47.57%，突破3万亿元，明显超过资金运用余额整体17.39%的同比增速。 在业内人士看来，与全面大幅 ...

非银金融 行 业 研 究 非银金融 2025 年 08 月 24 日 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究报告 《慢牛下战略性增配非银，险资举牌 险 企 释 放 积 极 信 号 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.17 《两融规模达到 2 万亿，头部险企领 跑银保渠道—行业周报》-2025.8.10 《国债恢复利息增值税征收对险企投 资端影响较小—行业周报》-2025.8.3 赚钱效应有望进一步催化资金面，继续战略看多非银 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：赚钱效应有望进一步催化资金面，继续战略性看多非银 上证指数持续上涨，赚钱效应有望进一步催化个人和机构资金流入，居民股 ...

Macro Economy - In the first seven months of this year, China's trade volume with other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reached $293.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Internet Information Office have jointly drafted the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules (Draft for Comments)," which includes 30 articles focusing on pricing autonomy, price marking behavior, price competition behavior, and consumer price rights protection [2] Investment News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised and officially implemented the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which have historically favored larger brokerages over smaller ones [5] - As of August 22, the number of A-shares priced over 100 yuan has increased to 132, a threefold increase compared to the same date last year, with 58 of these stocks being from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [5] - The price of lithium carbonate has remained volatile, with the main futures contract dropping by 4.41% to 79,000 yuan per ton, as several lithium companies announced normal capacity releases [5] - Insurance institutions have shown a significant rebound in confidence regarding the bond and A-share markets for the second half of the year, focusing on investment opportunities in artificial intelligence, high-dividend stocks, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] Company Movements - Sunac China reported that the fifth batch of 66 units at Shanghai Yihua Garden sold out quickly, with total sales exceeding 22 billion yuan this year [6] - Huawei's Intelligent Automotive Solutions Business Unit announced the upcoming release of Huawei ADS 4 and Harmony Space 5, indicating rapid advancements in automotive technology [6] - Lenovo has established a comprehensive "full-stack AI" system covering AI terminals, infrastructure, and services [7] - Xiaomi anticipates that the total number of its stores will exceed 20,000 by the end of this year, with over 200 stores integrating various ecosystems [7] - BYD announced the launch of its new model in Malaysia and plans to build an assembly plant there, expected to commence production in 2026 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Asset Management Association released a survey indicating that insurance institutions prefer stocks as their primary investment asset for the second half of 2025, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [1][4]. Macro Economic Aspects - Most insurance institutions expect stable economic growth in the second half of the year, with GDP growth projected between 4.5% and 5.5%, CPI growth between 0% and 0.5%, and PPI growth between -3.5% and -2.0%. The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to appreciate steadily, with a focus on exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. Macro Policy Aspects - Insurance institutions predict a moderately accommodative monetary policy in the second half, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity. Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, leaning towards expansion to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially increasing the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds [3]. Asset Allocation Preferences - Stocks are identified as the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half, followed by bonds and securities investment funds. Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in stock and bond investments [4]. Bond Market Outlook - Insurance institutions hold a neutral to optimistic view on the bond market for the second half, expecting 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.4% and 1.6%, and high-grade credit bond yields between 1.5% and 2.0%. There is a favorable outlook for ultra-long special government bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years, influenced by economic fundamentals, monetary policy easing, and market liquidity [5]. A-Share Market Outlook - A majority of insurance institutions are optimistic about the A-share market, predicting the Shanghai Composite Index to likely remain between 3200 and 3800 points. They favor stocks related to the CSI 300 index, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense. Investment areas of interest include artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a key factor affecting the A-share market [6]. Overseas Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half, with 40% of insurance institutions also optimistic about bond and gold investments [7].

Group 1: Insurance Asset Management Survey Results - The China Insurance Asset Management Association released the investor confidence survey results for the second half of 2025, covering macro environment, market judgment, allocation plans, and return expectations with participation from 122 insurance institutions [1] - Stocks are the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half of 2025, followed by bonds and securities investment funds, with most institutions expecting asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025 [1] - A majority of insurance institutions hold a neutral to optimistic view on the bond market, anticipating 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.4% and 1.6%, and high-grade credit bond yields between 1.5% and 2.0% [1] Group 2: A-share Market Outlook - Most insurance institutions are optimistic about the A-share market for the second half of 2025, predicting the Shanghai Composite Index to likely remain between 3200 and 3800 points [2] - Insurance institutions favor stocks related to the CSI 300 index, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [2] - Key investment areas include artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a major factor influencing the A-share market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant rebound in investor confidence among insurance institutions regarding the bond market and A-share market for the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Insurance institutions are primarily focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productive forces, high dividend and high yield stocks, and innovative pharmaceuticals for the upcoming period [1]