前面我们分析，本周价格一定会大涨大跌，尤其是比特币，大家一定要注意，但是我们主思路还是以空单为主，辅助性的去做做多 单，本轮下跌四小时属于连阴走势，空头压制一定很强，但是对于多头来说，从80602反弹，大涨近8000美金，多头也不弱，那本周很 明显，多空继续争夺，操作上以获利及时了结去做，留一部分小仓去博，继续给到进场价后，补回到正常仓。过长持仓不可取。 按照比特币的分析原理，我们继续套用以太坊，以3063为顶，2621为底部，强压力位置：2894美元，但是以太坊有一点不同，那就是 它的波动幅度远远不如比特币，所以，在持仓上更加考验耐心和忍耐力，最重要的一点是价格快速拉低后，又刷了新高，这对于做空 的朋友来说，无疑多了几分恐惧，那么在接下来的操作里，我们又该如何把握大的方向和进场价格，跟随老吕继续往下看。 比特币，接下来一定会有上下大涨大跌的走势，这也是我们在文章开篇里提到的需要大家注意的，我们重点来解释下这里面的两点原 因，第一个原因，前面我们提到了，比特币在日线上其实已经跌无可跌了，价格指标已经爆表了，再跌就没什么空间，当前反弹后， 我们希望它继续能破一个新低，然后形成指标上的顶底背离，这也为我们抄底做好 ...

1、日线级别：黄金价格于周二呈现下探回升态势，周三则冲高回落，尽管两个交易日均收报阳线，但整体并未形成极强的单边上行格局。指标层面，均线 系统排列较为紊乱，当前参考价值相对有限，短期需重点关注周二低点 3998 支撑，以及周三高点 4132/4133 区域的阻力表现。 昨日11月19日（星期三），黄金早盘小幅下探4055后开始企稳上涨，欧盘延续上涨，美盘最高上涨至4132/4133附近后受阻大跌，到凌晨最低跌至4055附 近，随后反弹4091附近受阻回落震荡，日线收出一根带有长上影线的小实体阳线。 一、基本面 1、美联储会议纪要鹰派凸显，12月降息概率大幅下滑至32.8%（部分机构仅27%），委员分歧达10:2，多数反对降息以防通胀根深蒂固。 2、美国政府停摆导致10-11月非农数据延迟发布，美联储12月议息前缺乏关键就业数据参考，决策更谨慎。 3、特朗普施压鲍威尔降息但遭硬刚，美联储为彰显独立性，降息难度进一步加大。 4、今日关注：21:30：9月非农报告、美国至11月15日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月费城联储制造业指数；23:00：欧元区11月消费者信心指数初值、美国 10月成屋销售总数年化、美国10月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations surrounding the U.S. government funding bill and economic data indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Key drivers for gold's rise include the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown, with the House of Representatives moving towards a final vote on a funding bill, and President Trump indicating he will sign it. This has led to market expectations that upcoming economic data will confirm economic weakness in the U.S., further increasing gold's attractiveness [2]. - Economic indicators show weakness, with the ADP weekly employment report indicating a reduction of an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the private sector, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 65% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has fallen to 4.059%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, coupled with economic uncertainty, leading to increased investment in precious metals [3]. - Future focus areas include the final voting results and signing progress of the U.S. government funding bill, the release of delayed economic data, particularly employment and inflation reports, and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the gold market has shown a strong upward trend, achieving four consecutive days of gains, indicating increasing bullish sentiment [6]. - Technical indicators reveal a strong short-term trend, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a golden cross, suggesting the stability and continuation of the upward trend. The 5-day moving average is currently acting as a strong support level [6]. - On the four-hour chart, the current market is in the C-wave of a corrective structure, with expectations of a five-wave push within this C-wave. Monitoring the momentum and completion of this wave structure is crucial for future positioning [8]. - Key resistance levels to watch include 4211/4212, with potential further resistance at 4238 and 4275/4276. Support levels to monitor are 4168, 4155-4140, and 4120 [9].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold is currently trading above $4125, with a price of $4128.55 per ounce, reflecting a 0.07% increase, and has seen a high of $4144.99 and a low of $4098.29 during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for London gold appears to be leaning towards a volatile trading pattern [1] Group 2: Employment Market Insights - Recent data indicates a clear picture of a weakening job market, contrasting sharply with previous expectations of sustained strength [2] - The ADP report shows that, as of October 25, 2025, U.S. private employers averaged weekly layoffs of 11,250, highlighting the impact of recent government shutdowns on employment data [2] - The October non-farm payroll report revealed only 150,000 new jobs added, falling short of market expectations [2] - Economic slowdown signals have been accumulating, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance through multiple rate hikes to combat inflation [2] - Signs of economic weakness began to emerge in late summer and early fall of 2025, with manufacturing and services PMI entering contraction territory and consumer spending growth slowing [2] - A series of weak labor data starting in October has shifted market sentiment towards expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025 has surged to the 67%-70% range, a significant increase from previous forecasts [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - The 4070-4075 range is identified as a key Fibonacci retracement level and a critical support area for the current week [3] - The 4145 area is being tested repeatedly, which is close to previous high points of 4155-4161; a breakout after adjustment could lead to further upward movement towards 4165 and the 4188 level [3]

Group 1 - The market is currently in a phase of low-volume fluctuations and slow bullish consolidation, with the Shanghai index performing stronger than the Shenzhen index [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's adjustment is nearing its end, with expectations for a high-low switch [1] - The early trading session saw a divergence in the three major indices, with over 3,000 stocks rising, particularly in sectors like cultivated diamonds and photovoltaic equipment [1] Group 2 - Gold has a target level of 4018, which has been tested multiple times but has not yet been successfully breached; the key levels to watch are 4025 for a breakout and 3986 for a potential breakdown [1] - Market volume showed no significant change in the afternoon, and the sustainability of various sectors remains low [1] - The active investment direction is focused on new energy and resource chains, while defensive sectors are rising against the trend, complicating style switching [1] Group 3 - The market failed to break through the previous high of 4025, forming a potential double top on the hourly chart, indicating a need for caution regarding a pullback to the 144-hour moving average at 3911 [1] - Investment decisions should be centered around the critical levels of 3980 and 4025, emphasizing a cautious approach [1] - The overall market trend is mixed, with positive indicators such as intact weekly and monthly trends, but negative factors like insufficient volume and difficulty in breaking key levels [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market is currently experiencing a fluctuating pattern with alternating bullish and bearish candles, indicating a "downward test followed by recovery" trend [1] - The U.S. government shutdown continues to create record delays in key economic data releases, with consumer confidence dropping to a three-year low [2][4] - The Federal Reserve shows significant internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with market attention on the potential for interest rate cuts in December [2][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is trading in a range around $4,000, influenced by safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar [3] - The price has not broken below the key support level of $3,886 or above the resistance level of $4,046, maintaining a range-bound movement [5] - Key levels to watch include the resistance at $4,046 and support at $3,928 and $3,886, which will significantly impact future price direction [7][9]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in international risk aversion and gold prices stabilizing above $3,500 [1] - Following Powell's comments, gold prices rose significantly from a low of $3,311 on August 20 to a peak of $3,546, marking an increase of over 7% [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17, indicating a recognition of recession risks in the macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices experienced a gap down due to a court ruling that may invalidate Trump's tariff policies, which could severely impact economic confidence [2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is expected to show weak job growth, with a forecast of 75,000 new jobs, which could negatively affect the U.S. dollar index [2] - If non-farm employment falls below 100,000, it typically results in a bearish impact on the dollar index, regardless of whether the latest figure exceeds previous expectations [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the recent upward movement has broken the converging triangle structure established since April 22, with significant price action confirming the breakout [4] - The current price is fluctuating around $3,530, approaching a resistance zone of $3,546 to $3,568, which may encounter strong selling pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, stabilizing around 3342 before rising to a peak of 3370/3371, then retreating to a low of 3350 before rebounding to close at 3359, forming a small bullish candle on the daily chart [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Supporting Factors: U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a consensus in the market that weakened the U.S. dollar index (down 0.28% to a two-week low of 97.61) and reduced U.S. Treasury yields (10-year down 5.3 basis points to 4.24%, 2-year down 4.2 basis points to 3.689%), lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus supporting its price. Additionally, July CPI data showed moderate inflation, and weak non-farm employment data further supported the case for a rate cut, which is favorable for gold [2] - Suppressing Factors: U.S. stock markets reached new highs (S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set closing records for the second consecutive day, Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.04%, and Russell 2000 index increased nearly 2%), along with a potential easing of geopolitical tensions (Trump's upcoming meeting with Putin to discuss the Ukraine war and a 90-day extension of the U.S.-China tariff truce), which somewhat dampened gold's safe-haven demand [2] - Today's Focus: The U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 and July PPI data at 20:30 [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Daily Level: Following a significant drop on Monday, gold saw a corrective rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday, forming a small bullish candle. This rebound is viewed as a temporary correction rather than a trend reversal, indicating a brief balance between bullish and bearish forces after a sharp decline. The 5-day moving average is trending downward, suggesting continued short-term downward pressure on gold, while the 10-day moving average remains upward, indicating that the previous upward trend is not entirely broken. The formation of a death cross signals increased market uncertainty [3] - Four-Hour Level: Without a strong breakout above 3409, the expectation is for a C-3-3 wave decline. The focus is on the Tuesday low of 3331; as long as this level holds, a second wave of the C-3-3 rebound is possible. Recent price action aligns with this expectation, successfully executing two long trades [5] - Today's Market Outlook: Attention is on gold's rebound potential, with resistance levels at 3379/3380 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the drop to 3331) and 3392/3393 (the 0.786 Fibonacci level). Key support levels include the recent low of 3350 and the previous low of 3342, with 3331 being critical for determining if the market enters a C-3-3 third wave decline, which could lead to further downward movement if breached [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement to reduce auto import tariffs to 15% and exempt certain goods from punitive tariffs. Additionally, positive progress in U.S.-EU trade talks is expected to lead to a deal with a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [3] - Strong economic data has boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000, the lowest in three months, and the composite PMI and services PMI both rising in July, indicating accelerated economic activity. This has led to a stronger dollar index (up 0.3%) and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.408%, reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3] - President Trump's rare visit to the Federal Reserve raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, which could provide medium to long-term support for gold prices. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September [4] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. June durable goods orders, which is an important indicator of manufacturing activity and economic health, likely to impact gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weakening trend after forming three consecutive bullish candles, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed. The price has broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [5] - Key support levels to monitor include 3339, the lower boundary of the current upward channel, and 3324, a trendline support formed by previous lows. Resistance is significantly higher at around 3450, making a rebound to this level unlikely in the short term [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a series of bearish candles, with a slight recovery after hitting 3351. Confirmation of the 3351 low is crucial; if the price rebounds above this level, resistance can be identified at 3393/3395 and 3402/3406. A drop below 3351 would lead to a focus on the daily support levels mentioned [6] - The one-hour chart suggests that gold may be in a corrective phase, with potential for a rebound from the recent low at 3351. The structure indicates that if the price breaks above key resistance levels, it could signal a shift in trend direction [7]

Fundamental Analysis - The trade agreement between the Trump administration and Japan has reduced tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. This agreement serves as a template for tariff policies and has led to a rally in Asian stock markets, diminishing the demand for gold as a safe haven [3]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have emerged, as a Reuters survey indicates that most economists believe there will be no interest rate cut in July. President Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chairman Powell, raising fears about the Fed's autonomy. If the Fed is forced to cut rates aggressively, it could lead to soaring inflation, which would support gold prices. Currently, the market anticipates a 58% probability of a rate cut in September, resulting in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments for gold [3]. - Key economic events to watch include the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 20:15, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde at 20:45, and U.S. initial jobless claims data at 20:30 [3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop after three consecutive days of gains, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. The recent low is near the 5-day moving average, and the price is currently below this average, indicating a potential weakening trend. Key support levels to monitor are around 3365/3360, with further support at trendline levels of 3334 and 3320 if the decline continues [4]. - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3381, gold showed a slight rebound. The price needs to stay above 3381 for a potential upward movement, with resistance levels at 3410, 3417, and 3426/3427, corresponding to Fibonacci retracement levels. If the price declines, support levels to watch are at 3374, 3359, and 3337 [6]. Summary of Key Levels - Support levels to monitor include 3381, 3374, 3365/3359, 3337/3334, and 3320. Resistance levels to watch are 3410, 3417, 3426/3427, and 3438/3439 [7].