天赢居在2020年12月发表《黄金分割是大自然的基本规律》明确计算了月线黄金目标位4018=（3288- 2440）*1.618+2646，站稳之后，"明白了这13年在3260附近横盘的原因，然后按照2.618的系数计算出 下个目标位4156=（1558.95-95.79）*2.618+325.89"。所以2025年10月13日和11月14日到了4018必然洗 盘，而站稳4018就要尝试4156。 前面几天在涨满55小时后KDJ死叉 → 引发分时级别洗盘。但一直都强调是5分钟级别的洗盘，并明确5 分钟K线图洗盘55根K线的时间是1月8日13:35，空间是5分钟K线图的144线。两个条件满足之后在1月8 日14:25满足之后站稳5分钟K线图144线4074就确认洗盘结束，然后继续冲4156。我们前几天说的4173和 4186以及上个交易日说的4156，其实是一回事，都是五条趋势线的点位，只是有共振的就更重要些。 因为16连阳超过了13天时间周期，所以春季行情已经从12月17日开始了，按照日线级别55个交易日计 划：初期（前11个交易日）—主升（12—34）—冲顶/磨顶（34—55）。主线有色金属和科技硬件"牛市 ...

黄金周三早盘在4342企稳上涨，在上涨至4373/4374附近受阻转跌，午后急跌，最低跌至4274附近，随后又快速上涨起来，欧美盘维持在4300上方震荡，美 盘最高4353/4354附近，日线收出一根带有上下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、黄金上涨核心驱动因素 政策层面：美联储开启降息周期，美国10年期公债收益率年度下跌（2020年以来首次），降低了持有无息资产黄金的机会成本。 地缘政治：俄乌冲突持续升级，全球不确定性加剧，黄金的避险资产属性被强化，吸引投资者涌入。 需求支撑：各国央行（除俄罗斯因战争少量出售外）持续增持黄金，以多元化储备、对冲通胀和地缘风险；资金大量流入黄金ETF，为市场注入充足流动 性。 其他贵金属额外动力：供应短缺叠加工业需求爆发——白银受益于低库存、太阳能/电子等工业应用及美国将其列为重要矿产；铂金、钯金依托汽车催化剂 领域需求，供应中断与替代需求抵消了电动车转型的冲击。 2、黄金2025年末回调原因 年末贵金属价格回调属短期技术性调整，非牛市终结：一是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）多次提高期货保证金要求，引发交易商大规模获利了结；二是假期 交易流动性低下，放大了市场波动性。另外，矿商不愿卖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing limited downward movement, with specific price targets set for short positions, while also highlighting the importance of technical analysis in understanding market trends [1][5]. Group 1: Bitcoin Analysis - The recent price drop for Bitcoin started from $107,499 and reached a low of $80,602, indicating significant market fear and the need for confidence to drive a recovery [2]. - A strong resistance level for Bitcoin is identified at $88,214, derived from Fibonacci retracement analysis, with the last significant drop's starting point at $93,130 [2][5]. - The current market sentiment suggests that Bitcoin has limited room to fall further, with indicators showing potential for a rebound if it can establish a new low [5]. Group 2: Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum's price analysis shows a strong resistance level at $2,894, with a top at $3,063 and a bottom at $2,621, indicating a different volatility pattern compared to Bitcoin [4]. - The recent price action for Ethereum, which includes a rapid drop followed by a new high, adds complexity to short positions, creating a cautious environment for traders [4]. - The strategy for Ethereum remains focused on maintaining a short position unless the price can break and hold above $2,894 [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The overall market is expected to experience significant volatility, with both upward and downward movements anticipated, particularly for Bitcoin [6]. - The primary strategy remains to favor short positions while selectively engaging in long positions, emphasizing the importance of timely profit-taking [6]. - The analysis suggests that traders should focus on key price levels and avoid holding positions for extended periods without clear signals [6].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a slight decline followed by a rebound, indicating a lack of strong upward momentum despite recent gains [1][3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping significantly to 32.8%, with some institutions estimating it as low as 27%. There was a notable division among committee members, with a 10:2 vote against rate cuts to prevent entrenched inflation [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of non-farm payroll data for October and November, leading to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve ahead of the December meeting due to the lack of key employment data [2]. - Former President Trump pressured Fed Chair Powell to lower interest rates, but the Fed's commitment to its independence has made rate cuts more challenging [2]. - Key economic data to watch includes the September non-farm report, initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, among others [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a rebound after a dip, but the overall trend lacks a strong upward direction. Key support is at 3998, while resistance is noted at 4132/4133 [3][5]. - The four-hour chart indicates that gold is in a corrective phase, with the current price action suggesting a C-wave adjustment. The recent price movements are categorized into sub-waves, with the potential for further upward movement if the price breaks above 4132/4133 [5][6]. - The recent drop to 4055 followed by a strong rebound suggests that the C-2-b wave may have completed, with the current rise potentially indicating the start of the C-2-c wave. Key levels to monitor are 4132/4133 for resistance and 4055 for support [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations surrounding the U.S. government funding bill and economic data indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Key drivers for gold's rise include the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown, with the House of Representatives moving towards a final vote on a funding bill, and President Trump indicating he will sign it. This has led to market expectations that upcoming economic data will confirm economic weakness in the U.S., further increasing gold's attractiveness [2]. - Economic indicators show weakness, with the ADP weekly employment report indicating a reduction of an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the private sector, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 65% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has fallen to 4.059%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, coupled with economic uncertainty, leading to increased investment in precious metals [3]. - Future focus areas include the final voting results and signing progress of the U.S. government funding bill, the release of delayed economic data, particularly employment and inflation reports, and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the gold market has shown a strong upward trend, achieving four consecutive days of gains, indicating increasing bullish sentiment [6]. - Technical indicators reveal a strong short-term trend, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a golden cross, suggesting the stability and continuation of the upward trend. The 5-day moving average is currently acting as a strong support level [6]. - On the four-hour chart, the current market is in the C-wave of a corrective structure, with expectations of a five-wave push within this C-wave. Monitoring the momentum and completion of this wave structure is crucial for future positioning [8]. - Key resistance levels to watch include 4211/4212, with potential further resistance at 4238 and 4275/4276. Support levels to monitor are 4168, 4155-4140, and 4120 [9].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold is currently trading above $4125, with a price of $4128.55 per ounce, reflecting a 0.07% increase, and has seen a high of $4144.99 and a low of $4098.29 during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for London gold appears to be leaning towards a volatile trading pattern [1] Group 2: Employment Market Insights - Recent data indicates a clear picture of a weakening job market, contrasting sharply with previous expectations of sustained strength [2] - The ADP report shows that, as of October 25, 2025, U.S. private employers averaged weekly layoffs of 11,250, highlighting the impact of recent government shutdowns on employment data [2] - The October non-farm payroll report revealed only 150,000 new jobs added, falling short of market expectations [2] - Economic slowdown signals have been accumulating, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance through multiple rate hikes to combat inflation [2] - Signs of economic weakness began to emerge in late summer and early fall of 2025, with manufacturing and services PMI entering contraction territory and consumer spending growth slowing [2] - A series of weak labor data starting in October has shifted market sentiment towards expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025 has surged to the 67%-70% range, a significant increase from previous forecasts [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - The 4070-4075 range is identified as a key Fibonacci retracement level and a critical support area for the current week [3] - The 4145 area is being tested repeatedly, which is close to previous high points of 4155-4161; a breakout after adjustment could lead to further upward movement towards 4165 and the 4188 level [3]

Group 1 - The market is currently in a phase of low-volume fluctuations and slow bullish consolidation, with the Shanghai index performing stronger than the Shenzhen index [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's adjustment is nearing its end, with expectations for a high-low switch [1] - The early trading session saw a divergence in the three major indices, with over 3,000 stocks rising, particularly in sectors like cultivated diamonds and photovoltaic equipment [1] Group 2 - Gold has a target level of 4018, which has been tested multiple times but has not yet been successfully breached; the key levels to watch are 4025 for a breakout and 3986 for a potential breakdown [1] - Market volume showed no significant change in the afternoon, and the sustainability of various sectors remains low [1] - The active investment direction is focused on new energy and resource chains, while defensive sectors are rising against the trend, complicating style switching [1] Group 3 - The market failed to break through the previous high of 4025, forming a potential double top on the hourly chart, indicating a need for caution regarding a pullback to the 144-hour moving average at 3911 [1] - Investment decisions should be centered around the critical levels of 3980 and 4025, emphasizing a cautious approach [1] - The overall market trend is mixed, with positive indicators such as intact weekly and monthly trends, but negative factors like insufficient volume and difficulty in breaking key levels [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market is currently experiencing a fluctuating pattern with alternating bullish and bearish candles, indicating a "downward test followed by recovery" trend [1] - The U.S. government shutdown continues to create record delays in key economic data releases, with consumer confidence dropping to a three-year low [2][4] - The Federal Reserve shows significant internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with market attention on the potential for interest rate cuts in December [2][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is trading in a range around $4,000, influenced by safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar [3] - The price has not broken below the key support level of $3,886 or above the resistance level of $4,046, maintaining a range-bound movement [5] - Key levels to watch include the resistance at $4,046 and support at $3,928 and $3,886, which will significantly impact future price direction [7][9]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in international risk aversion and gold prices stabilizing above $3,500 [1] - Following Powell's comments, gold prices rose significantly from a low of $3,311 on August 20 to a peak of $3,546, marking an increase of over 7% [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17, indicating a recognition of recession risks in the macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices experienced a gap down due to a court ruling that may invalidate Trump's tariff policies, which could severely impact economic confidence [2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is expected to show weak job growth, with a forecast of 75,000 new jobs, which could negatively affect the U.S. dollar index [2] - If non-farm employment falls below 100,000, it typically results in a bearish impact on the dollar index, regardless of whether the latest figure exceeds previous expectations [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the recent upward movement has broken the converging triangle structure established since April 22, with significant price action confirming the breakout [4] - The current price is fluctuating around $3,530, approaching a resistance zone of $3,546 to $3,568, which may encounter strong selling pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, stabilizing around 3342 before rising to a peak of 3370/3371, then retreating to a low of 3350 before rebounding to close at 3359, forming a small bullish candle on the daily chart [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Supporting Factors: U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a consensus in the market that weakened the U.S. dollar index (down 0.28% to a two-week low of 97.61) and reduced U.S. Treasury yields (10-year down 5.3 basis points to 4.24%, 2-year down 4.2 basis points to 3.689%), lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus supporting its price. Additionally, July CPI data showed moderate inflation, and weak non-farm employment data further supported the case for a rate cut, which is favorable for gold [2] - Suppressing Factors: U.S. stock markets reached new highs (S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set closing records for the second consecutive day, Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.04%, and Russell 2000 index increased nearly 2%), along with a potential easing of geopolitical tensions (Trump's upcoming meeting with Putin to discuss the Ukraine war and a 90-day extension of the U.S.-China tariff truce), which somewhat dampened gold's safe-haven demand [2] - Today's Focus: The U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 and July PPI data at 20:30 [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Daily Level: Following a significant drop on Monday, gold saw a corrective rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday, forming a small bullish candle. This rebound is viewed as a temporary correction rather than a trend reversal, indicating a brief balance between bullish and bearish forces after a sharp decline. The 5-day moving average is trending downward, suggesting continued short-term downward pressure on gold, while the 10-day moving average remains upward, indicating that the previous upward trend is not entirely broken. The formation of a death cross signals increased market uncertainty [3] - Four-Hour Level: Without a strong breakout above 3409, the expectation is for a C-3-3 wave decline. The focus is on the Tuesday low of 3331; as long as this level holds, a second wave of the C-3-3 rebound is possible. Recent price action aligns with this expectation, successfully executing two long trades [5] - Today's Market Outlook: Attention is on gold's rebound potential, with resistance levels at 3379/3380 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the drop to 3331) and 3392/3393 (the 0.786 Fibonacci level). Key support levels include the recent low of 3350 and the previous low of 3342, with 3331 being critical for determining if the market enters a C-3-3 third wave decline, which could lead to further downward movement if breached [6]