我是中芯证券电子行业研究员刘航,今天上午是中芯证券2026年度策略会科技专场,然后电子行业的2026年主要我们认为还是围绕AI创新来进行一个挖掘,然后2025年,今天是2025年的 最后一天全年来看的话今年的整个市场首先是表现的不错的特别是创业版创业版的以硬科技AI为核心的这些相关的核心标题龙头白马走势都非常不错然后年初以来虽然也经历了比方说DeepSeek的开源模型的影响包括4月份的 中美的贸易博弈,包括下半年存储的价格,也经历了一个猛烈的上涨。整个电子板块的表现还是不错的,虽然也是跟上创业板的一个走势。然后从机构端来看的话,电子板块还是受到了机构投资者的一个追捧。 所以这个另外方面啊 我们认为啊 这个之后啊 这个因为AI对于整个电子板块影响非常大啊 这个整个的行业的这个创新层出不穷 主要就是几方面吧 一个就是算力啊 另外一个就是这个这个AI端测啊 包括这个PCB 包括这个 AI硬件和这个电力方面啊这个数据中心用电啊这个AIDC这个包括这个HVDC因为这个功率越来越高啊从原来的几十伏到这个八百伏到可能未来会更高啊一次电源可能不够啊可能需要二次电源二次电源到未来这个三次电源啊所以这个板块的这个需求啊这个新技术 ...

Investment Summary - The electronic industry index (CITIC) increased by 44.67% from the beginning of 2025 to December 5, 2025, driven by the innovation wave led by DeepSeek and the continuous iteration of AI applications on the terminal side [3][13][20] - The AI technology-driven innovation in the industrial chain and the recovery of terminal applications are expected to continue to push the electronic industry upward, with the storage sector entering a price increase cycle starting in the second half of 2025 due to supply-demand gaps [3][4][30] Market Review - The electronic sector's performance has outpaced the CSI 300 index, with a notable increase in institutional investment, as evidenced by the total market value held by funds in the electronic sector reaching 937.088 billion yuan, accounting for 5.07% of the circulating A-share market [3][20][25] - The top ten companies by fund holdings in the electronic sector include Maolai Optics, Lanke Technology, and Zhongke Feice, indicating a strong focus on the semiconductor core track [3][21][24] 2026 Investment Outlook - The report suggests capitalizing on the AI innovation cycle by focusing on new technologies, demands, and cycles, with a positive outlook for the following areas: 1. Semiconductor storage: The storage industry is entering an upward cycle driven by explosive demand for AI computing infrastructure, particularly in high-performance storage products like HBM and DDR5 [4][32][58] 2. Semiconductor testing equipment: The demand for testing machines is expected to rise due to the increasing complexity of AI chips and high-performance storage, with the global semiconductor testing equipment market projected to exceed $13.8 billion in 2025 [5][77][81] 3. Magnetic components: The transition to 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC) architecture is anticipated to accelerate the demand for magnetic components, driven by the increased power requirements of AI servers [6][30][56] Semiconductor Storage - The storage industry is expected to experience a "super cycle" due to the explosive demand for AI computing, with the global storage market projected to approach $300 billion by 2027 [32][36] - The report highlights that AI applications are significantly increasing the demand for storage, with AI servers requiring up to eight times more DRAM and three times more NAND than traditional servers [42][49] - The current inventory levels of NAND and DRAM are at historical lows, and major manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin products for servers, leading to anticipated price increases of at least 20% for DRAM and NAND products [36][40][58] Semiconductor Testing Equipment - The semiconductor testing machine market is expected to grow significantly, with the global market size projected to reach $9.3 billion in 2025 and $9.77 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing complexity of AI chips and high-performance storage [5][77][81] - The report emphasizes the critical role of testing machines in ensuring the quality and reliability of AI chips, as the demand for high-performance computing continues to rise [59][66][72] Magnetic Components - The shift to 800V HVDC architecture is expected to drive the demand for magnetic components, as traditional power supply structures face limitations under increased power demands [6][30][56] - The report identifies key beneficiaries in the magnetic component sector, including companies like Keli Ke and Jingquan Hua, which are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for efficient power conversion solutions [6][30]

Core Insights - The iPhone 17 series has significantly boosted Apple's smartphone sales in China, with a 37% increase in October, indicating strong growth momentum in this key market [1] - Apple's market share in China's smartphone sales reached 25% in October, the highest level since 2022, reflecting positive consumer response to the annual product upgrade [1] - The overall smartphone market in China saw an 8% growth, driven by the strong sales of the iPhone [1] Group 1: Apple Performance - The iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro Max have achieved double-digit sales growth compared to the previous iPhone 16 series, contributing to Apple's overall sales increase [1] - The new iPhone models account for over 80% of Apple's total shipments, with higher average selling prices expected to further enhance revenue growth [1] Group 2: Supplier Performance - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing, a key supplier in Apple's supply chain, reported a revenue of 37.59 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 19.25%, and a net profit of 1.941 billion yuan, up 37.66% [1] - Excluding stock incentive amortization, the net profit for the first three quarters reached 2.184 billion yuan, a 52.30% increase [2] Group 3: AI and Innovation - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing is expected to benefit from the AI innovation cycle, with optimistic prospects for its "human eye convincing" business, which may reshape its growth structure [4] - The company has established a diverse hardware product matrix in robotics and is actively involved in AI glasses and foldable screens, positioning itself to capitalize on market expansion [4] - Linyi has become a core supplier for AMD in cooling products for GPU, CPU, and AI applications, indicating strong collaboration with global clients [4]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing significant growth driven by government support, evolving global trade dynamics, and increasing domestic demand for AI and consumer electronics [4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index rose by 2.76%, with notable increases in stocks such as SourceJect Technology (up 17.04%) and Baiwei Storage (up 6.30%) [1]. - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) increased by 2.64%, with a trading volume of 2.128 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 5.42% [3]. - Over the past three months, the Sci-Tech Chip ETF's scale grew by 7.184 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF saw a significant increase in shares, with a growth of 1.005 billion shares over the past two weeks, also ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 91.1468 million yuan, with a total of 2.602 billion yuan net inflow over the last eight trading days [3]. - As of October 20, 2025, the ETF's net value increased by 132.31% over the past three years, placing it in the top 1% of index equity funds [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is entering a new upward cycle, supported by government policies and the AI innovation cycle, which enhances expectations for self-sufficiency in chip production [4]. - The domestic semiconductor sector is witnessing a wave of mergers and acquisitions across various fields, including materials, equipment, EDA, packaging, and chip design [5]. - Companies are engaging in horizontal and vertical mergers to expand their scale and improve the supply chain, reshaping the landscape of the domestic semiconductor industry [5]. Group 4: Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the Sci-Tech Chip Index account for 59.69% of the index, with notable performers including SMIC (up 3.32%) and Haiguang Information (up 2.61%) [3][7]. - Investors without stock accounts can access domestic chip investment opportunities through the Sci-Tech Chip ETF linked fund (017470) [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed strong performance on September 17, with major indices rebounding after initial declines, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which saw significant stock price increases and multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor supply chain experienced robust growth, with notable stocks such as SMIC reaching historical highs and five companies, including Xingtou New Science and Technology, hitting the 20% daily limit up [1] - According to a SEMI report, global semiconductor equipment shipments reached $33.07 billion in Q2 2025, marking a 24% year-on-year increase. However, sales in mainland China totaled $11.36 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year decline but an 11% quarter-on-quarter increase, maintaining a 34.4% share of the global semiconductor equipment market [1] - Guosen Securities highlighted that the focus on semiconductor self-sufficiency has returned to the market's attention, with companies like Deepseek and Alibaba increasing their commitment to domestic computing power adaptation and procurement [1] - The domestic advanced process capabilities are improving, indicating that the local computing power chain is experiencing a "Davis Double Click" effect, which suggests a favorable environment for growth [1] - The optimistic outlook for the electronics sector in 2025 is based on the convergence of macro policy cycles, industry inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles, leading to expected valuation expansion [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on September 16, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.17% during intraday trading [1] - The chip technology sector continued to strengthen, with the Chip ETF (159995) rising by 1.21% as of 10:17 AM, and notable increases in constituent stocks such as Longxin Technology (up 14.29%) and Haiguang Information (up 5.90%) [1] - According to招商证券, the evolution of the global trade landscape has elevated the importance of self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry as a key strategic focus for China's industrial development, supported by ongoing government policy initiatives [1] Group 2 - The AI innovation cycle, combined with the backdrop of tariffs, has reinforced expectations for self-sufficiency, leading to a sustained recovery in the semiconductor sector, which is now entering a new upward cycle [1] - The Chip ETF (159995) tracks the National Chip Index, comprising 30 leading companies in the A-share chip industry across various segments including materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing [1] - Notable companies within the ETF include SMIC, Cambricon, Changdian Technology, and Northern Huachuang [1]

Group 1 - Semiconductor sector experienced a decline, with the semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) dropping over 3%, while funds are being actively purchased at lower prices [1] - Guosen Securities maintains a positive outlook for the electronics sector in 2025, driven by the convergence of macro policy cycles, industry inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles, leading to "valuation expansion" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant strength, with companies like Shanghai Xinyang, SMIC, Zhenlei Technology, and Yitang Co., Ltd. seeing stock increases of over 10% [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Guosen Securities remains optimistic about the semiconductor industry's "valuation expansion" driven by the convergence of macro policy cycles, industry inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles [1] - Tianfeng Securities projects a continued optimistic growth trajectory for the global semiconductor market, with AI driving downstream growth expected to persist into 2025 [1] Group 2: Performance Expectations - Companies across various segments are reporting strong earnings forecasts for Q2, with an optimistic outlook for the semiconductor peak season in Q3 [1] - It is recommended to focus on the design sector, particularly in storage, foundry, SoC, ASIC, and CIS, due to their performance elasticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility, particularly in the hard technology sector, with the Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF (588750) seeing significant trading activity and capital inflow as investors focus on high volatility ETFs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF (588750) has seen a capital inflow of over 60 million yuan in the past two days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The index components of the Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF have shown mixed performance, with notable gains from companies like Cambricon and Hengxuan Technology, while others like SMIC and Zhongwei have experienced pullbacks [3][4]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Cambricon's market capitalization surged by 90 billion yuan over five days, driven by its leadership in the AI sector, with projected revenue of 1.174 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65.56% [3]. - The performance of the Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF's index is expected to show a net profit growth rate of 70% in Q1 2025, with an annual growth rate of 97.12% anticipated for the entire year [9]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is entering an upward cycle, with global semiconductor sales expected to grow by 17% in 2024, and the chip sector's net profit showing a year-on-year increase of 15.1% in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment's localization rate has increased from 21% in 2021 to 35% in 2023, highlighting the acceleration of domestic substitution in key areas [9]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The current macroeconomic policies, inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles are expected to drive valuation expansion in the electronics sector [5][6]. - AI infrastructure investment is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential anticipated, particularly as major tech companies increase their capital expenditures in AI-related areas [8].

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant rise today, with Dongxin Co. and Star Semiconductor hitting the daily limit, while Guoke Micro and Shenkong Co. increased by over 7% [1] - Guoxin Securities maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, emphasizing the favorable opportunities in analog and memory sectors, and expects a valuation expansion trend in the electronics sector by 2025 due to the convergence of macro policy cycles, industry inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles [1] - Tianfeng Securities projects continued optimistic growth in the global semiconductor market through 2025, driven by AI-related downstream growth, while highlighting the ongoing risks related to supply chain disruptions and restructuring [1] Group 2 - The second quarter performance forecasts for various companies in the semiconductor sector are promising, and there is an expectation for a peak season in the third quarter, suggesting a focus on the performance elasticity of memory, power, foundry, ASIC, and SoC segments [1]