来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 本周重点事件 & 指标 12 月 29 日 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国第三季度 GDP 远超预期，核心 PCE 符合预期，日本央行 10 月会 议纪要显示加息可能性；本周重点关注美联储货币政策会议纪要以及美联储主席人选或将揭晓等。 上周回顾日本央行 10 月会议纪要：若经济和物价预测如期实现，将继续加息。美联储克利夫兰联储主 席 Beth Hammack 表示，在通胀仍高于目标、数据存在失真背景下，未来数月内没有必要调整利率。她 称，11 月 CPI 的降温可能因政府停摆导致的数据问题而被低估，实际通胀或接近 2.9%–3.0%。在更清 楚评估关税对物价和经济影响前，倾向将政策利率维持在 3.5%–3.75% 区间至少至明年春季，并认为当 前利率可能已接近甚至略低于中性水平。美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值录得 4.3%，远超预期的 3.3% 和前值 3.8%。核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值为 2.9%，符合市场预期，高于前值 2.6%。此外， 实际个人消费支出季率初值为 3.5%，显著高于预期的 2.7% 和前值 2.5% ...

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Economic Growth Insights - The US GDP for Q3 2025 showed a significant growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%[7] - Personal consumption contributed 3.5% to GDP growth, up from 2.5% in the previous quarter, indicating strong consumer spending[7] - The final sales of domestic private purchasers recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, reflecting resilient domestic demand despite economic uncertainties[7] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a slight contraction of -0.3%, with non-residential construction and residential investment declining by -6.3% and -5.1%, respectively[7] - AI-related investments remain a key driver, with equipment and intellectual property investments growing at 5.4%, although this is a significant drop from earlier in the year[7] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is estimated at approximately 0.6% for Q3, but the growth rate is expected to slow down[7] Employment and Economic Risks - The job market shows signs of significant weakness, with a three-month moving average of new jobs at only 22,000, indicating a potential recession[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a level historically associated with economic downturns[7] - Risks of inflation rebounding and the economy slipping into recession are highlighted as major concerns for future growth[4]

新华社北京12月26日电（记者王雨萧）国家统计局26日发布关于2024年国内生产总值最终核实的公告， 经最终核实，2024年，GDP现价总量为1348066亿元，比初步核算数减少1018亿元；按不变价格计算， 比上年增长5.0％，与初步核算数持平。 GDP是国民经济核算的核心指标，也是衡量一个国家经济状况和发展水平的重要指标。按照我国GDP核 算和数据发布制度规定，年度GDP核算包括初步核算和最终核实两个步骤。近日，根据国家统计局统计 年报、财政部财政决算和有关部门年度财务资料等，国家统计局对2024年GDP数据进行了最终核实。 （来源：邯郸日报） 转自：邯郸日报 ...

（据新华社电） （文章来源：证券时报） ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Friday following a higher close on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing a decrease [1][2] - The Dow Jones futures fell by 0.12%, S&P 500 by 0.06%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.06%, and Russell 2000 by 0.27% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) decreased by 0.029% to $690.18, while Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell by 0.014% to $623.84 in premarket trading [2] Economic Data - U.S. initial jobless claims dropped by 10,000 to 214,000 for the week ending Dec. 20, better than market expectations of 223,000 [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield was at 4.15%, and the two-year bond yield was at 3.51% [2] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 84.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January [2] Company Highlights - Dynavax Technologies (NASDAQ:DVAX) shares surged by 38.19% following Sanofi's announcement to acquire the vaccines company [5] - Davis Commodities Ltd. (NASDAQ:DTCK) reported revenue of $95 million for the six months ending June 30, a 42.1% increase from $66.9 million a year earlier, leading to a 7.19% rise in its shares [4] - Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares rose by 0.58% after announcing a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chip startup Groq [5] - Sobr Safe Inc. (NASDAQ:SOBR) shares dropped by 15.61% after announcing a private placement of 1.29 million shares at $1.55 per share [5][6] - Biohaven Ltd. (NYSE:BHVN) shares fell by 14.06% after its Phase 2 study of BHV-7000 in major depressive disorder failed to meet its primary endpoint [13] Analyst Insights - University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers criticized the media's focus on record stock numbers, stating that U.S. markets are up 18% but lag behind global markets, which have risen by 30% [9][10] - Wolfers highlighted a disconnect between GDP growth of over 4% and a more modest Gross Domestic Income (GDI) growth of 2.4%, suggesting potential job creation stagnation [10]

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月25日星期四 有色板块集体调整叠加政策端有利空影响以及镍行情的共振，资金 流出，盘面大幅回调。建议暂时观望为主，关注其他有色品种走势 联系方式： 010-68518650 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 美国三季度GDP和通胀均高于预期，宏观层面利 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]

Mortgage rates fell again this week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Wednesday. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Wednesday, showed the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.18% from last week's reading of 6.21%. The average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.85% a year ago. THESE 10 MARKETS MAY SEE THE BIGGEST HOMEBUYING SURGE AS MORTGAGE RATES FALL "The modest decline reflects a bond market that moved throughout the week – albeit within a tight range – f ...

Market Overview - The three major indices are on a four-session winning streak, with expectations for a potential Santa Claus rally starting in the last five trading days of the year [1][2] - There is a historical concern as the last two years did not see a Santa Claus rally, and this year could break that trend [2] Trading Conditions - The S&P 500 is expected to have a trading range of about 30 to 35 points, with current volatility at approximately 13.7% [3] - A more defensive rotation is observed in the market, with interest rate-sensitive stocks, consumer staples, real estate, and financials leading the way [5] Economic Data - Mortgage applications have decreased by 5% week-over-week, with the 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 6.3% [7][12] - Jobless claims came in at 214,000, better than the expected 224,000, indicating a mixed picture in the jobs market with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [8][10] - The four-week moving average for initial claims is around 216,000 jobs, reflecting some normalization after previous outlier reports [11] Inflation and GDP - Recent economic data has exceeded expectations, contributing to equity gains, with GDP numbers coming in 1% above forecasts [13] - CPI inflation is reported at 2.7% on the headline and 2.6% on core, suggesting that inflation may not be a significant concern for the Fed [21] Commodity Market - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, indicating a shift towards commodity trading amid geopolitical risks and central bank policies [22][23] - The gold-silver ratio suggests that gold is currently outperforming silver, which may indicate positive market sentiment and economic growth [24][25] Future Outlook - There are expectations for potential fiscal policies around housing in 2026, especially in an election year, which could influence market dynamics [17] - The market is currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts, with the first not expected until June, but there is uncertainty about how the market will react if these cuts are backed out [20]