张宁 国联民生证券通信分析师: 尊敬的各位投资者大家好，我是国联民生通信团队的张宁，今天早上我和我的同事朱正庆 在我们开工的第一天的早 8 点。来给大家做一下我们春节期间对光通信，还有 CPU、OCS 等这些行业的一些观察。首先，也是给大家拜个年，也祝大家在新的一年里面，这个投资 顺利，业绩长虹。然后，因为很，因为这个，我们长话短说，因为 8 点的时间后面大家都 有很多的会议我们长话短说，第一个就是春节期间我们看到了什么？一个是围绕着 AI 的 资本开支的讨论，其实是在春节期间也没有停下来，特别是关于 OpenAI 他们的怎么开支， 到底是 2030 年 6000 亿，还是到 2033 年 8 年的时间，我们要投入这个 14000 亿。 以及这个资本开支的口径，到底是资本开支？还是算运营投入？之类之类的这样的讨论， 其实因为他们，因为都是一些非官方的访谈，或者是这种或者是发推测，这样的公出来的 数据，也没有谁有义务说给我们清晰的把所有的账单列出来。而且这是一个 8 年到 5 年后 的事情。我们从另另外一个就是从其他，像微软，还有其他几家，特别是亚马逊，谷歌的 角度去看。我觉得我们看的更短一点，至少 26 年、 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 在AI算力需求爆发的浪潮中，罗博特科无疑是A股市场上的一只"长牛股"。 截至2月11日午间收盘，股 价报405.10元，年内上涨近74%，总市值跃升至679亿元。若将时间线拉长，其股价表现更为惊人：从 2024年2月的低点至今，其后复权累计涨幅多达1212.82%，两年内实现超12倍的增长。 事实上，罗博特科能够在两年时间内狂飙12倍，离不开多重概念催化。罗博特科此前主营与光伏设备相 关，但现在可谓是集"科技感"于一身，具体涉及商业航天、OCS、CPO等多个概念，并借此"牵手"英伟 达、博通等核心大厂客户。 值得注意的是，浙商证券机械行业分析师邱世梁持续跟踪覆盖这只个股。 早在2021年11月27日，邱世梁曾发布题为《罗博特科：高端自动化设备龙头，受益光伏、半导体领域双 轮驱动》的研究报告，对罗博特科进行点评。彼时，罗博特科的收盘价仅为61.30元，离后来的百元 股、四百元股还有漫长距离。 2024年年初罗博特科股价持续在低位徘徊，2月6日达到39.63元/股的历史低点。邱世梁团队在行业周报 中连续数周推荐罗博特科。不完全统计显示，2024年1 ...

我们1月6日开始独家挖掘，近期获得市场逐步认可上涨接近40%，但科瑞技术作为全市场唯二光耦合设备供应 商，估值与市值较罗博特科仍有较大空间，公司26年3.5亿利润，对应当前市值仅36倍PE，估值水平仍低，逢低继 续关注，有同学关心科瑞技术和罗博特科在光模块设备的异同，昨天我们已发过文件整理，核心有3点： 1、二者供应的设备种类类似，包括耦合、共晶、光纤打磨、AOI检测等，价值量占到光模块整线投资的60%以 上。 2、目前罗博特科在CPO和OCS等新技术设备的进度可能领先于科瑞，Ficontech作为老牌光模块设备厂商，布局新 技术更早，但是科瑞与HW在光模块领域的合作接近10年，积累了大量的技术，随着光模块的放量，科瑞凭借过去 十年的经验迅速进入海外龙头客户如Lumentum及Finisar，现在是800G和1.6T设备放量初期。 科瑞技术看好逻辑再更新： 昨晚美股光通信概念股延续强势，光模块巨头Lumentum再创历史新高，得益于OCS和CPO的强劲需求，Lumentum 不仅交出了一份营收利润双超预期的成绩单，Q2营收同比暴增65%，AI业务订单积压超4亿美元，更给出了高达 85%同比增长的下季度指引，光 ...

投资要点： OCS 核心厂商，AI 光通信驱动发展 腾景科技(688195) 腾景科技深度报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 余伟民(分析师) | 010-50949926 | yuweimin@gtht.com | S0880525040028 | | 王彦龙(分析师) | 010-83939775 | wangyanlong@gtht.com | S0880519100003 | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 吴小沛(研究助理) | 021-23187269 | wuxiaopei@gtht.com | S0880125042240 | 本报告导读： 光通信与新兴业务高速增长，OCS 市场呈现高速增长态势，主要受 AI 集群和高性 能计算需求推动。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- ...

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - The company, referred to as "Company," has signed a contract worth approximately 38 million RMB with a leading Nasdaq-listed company in Israel, referred to as "Company E" [1] - The total value of daily operational contracts signed from September 24, 2025, to January 26, 2026, amounts to approximately 9.22 million USD, which represents over 5.79% of the company's audited revenue for the fiscal year 2024 [1] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Contract Details** - The order signed on January 26, 2026, is valued at approximately 5.47 million USD (excluding tax), translating to over 38 million RMB [1] 2. **Market Demand and Client Relationships** - The company has received additional orders from a leading Swiss client, confirming the initiation of market demand and highlighting the importance of the company's equipment [2] - The ongoing collaboration with key clients indicates a deepening relationship and growing demand for OCS and silicon photonics technologies [2] 3. **Technological Leadership** - The company is recognized for its global scarcity in providing fully automated packaging and coupling equipment for silicon photonics and CPO optical modules exceeding 800G [1] - The company has also developed a 300mm dual-side wafer testing platform in collaboration with a leading testing company, which has successfully completed reliability testing [3] 4. **Positive Outlook** - The company is strongly recommended for investment due to the high growth in AI demand, increased orders from key clients, and the scarcity of its fully automated packaging equipment [4] - Potential risks include lower-than-expected penetration rates for silicon photonics, CPO/OCS, slower growth in the photovoltaic industry, and goodwill impairment risks [4] Additional Important Insights - The company is positioned in the high-speed optical communication sector, which is expected to see significant growth due to advancements in technology and increasing demand from the industry [3] - The strategic partnerships and technological advancements are likely to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [2][3]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - The company, referred to as "Company," has signed a contract worth approximately 38 million RMB with a leading NASDAQ-listed company in Israel, referred to as "Company E" [1] - The total value of operational contracts signed with Company E from September 24, 2025, to January 26, 2026, amounts to approximately 9.22 million USD (excluding tax), which represents over 5.79% of the audited revenue for the fiscal year 2024 [1] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Contract Details** - The order signed on January 26, 2026, is valued at approximately 5.47 million USD (excluding tax), equivalent to over 38 million RMB [1] 2. **Market Demand and Client Relationships** - The company has received additional orders from a leading Swiss company, confirming the initiation of market demand and highlighting the importance of the company's equipment [2] - The ongoing collaboration with key clients indicates a deepening relationship and growing demand for OCS and silicon photonics technologies [2] 3. **Technological Leadership** - The company is recognized for its global scarcity in providing fully automated packaging and coupling equipment for silicon photonics and CPO optical modules exceeding 800G [1] - The company has also secured orders for single-wafer testing equipment and is developing the world's first 300mm dual-side wafer testing platform in collaboration with a leading testing company [3] 4. **Positive Outlook and Recommendations** - The company is strongly recommended for investment due to the high growth in AI demand, increased orders from key clients, and the scarcity of its fully automated packaging equipment [4] - Risks include potential lower-than-expected penetration rates for silicon photonics, CPO/OCS, slower growth in the photovoltaic industry, and goodwill impairment risks [4] Additional Important Insights - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-speed optical communication technologies, which are becoming increasingly critical in the industry [3] - The strategic partnerships and technological advancements are expected to drive future growth and order volumes [4]

高盛-罗博特科(300757.SZ)-中国CPO：罗博特科（300757.SZ）董事长调研纪要中国CPO： RoboTechnik（300757.SZ）董事长交流：CPO与OCS持续扩张，自动化测试与对准需求提升 我们于1月20日在香港举办的GS AllenChangTechAI展望企业日活动中接待了RoboTechnik（300757.SZ，未覆盖）董 事长。 管理层强调了公司在自研运动控制系统、机器视觉和数据库方面的优势。 横向参考：管理层关于光子封装设备需求强劲的观点，印证了我们对硅光子（SiPh）渗透率提升、规格向更高速 率升级以及CPO新兴应用落地的看法。 我们预计光模块出货量在2026-2028年间将以34%的复合年增长率增长，至2028年达到9400万只（报告链接）。 公司概况：RoboTechnik（300757.SZ）成立于2011年，最初从事光伏电池制造设备业务。 2020年，公司投资德国企业FiconTEC，后者为集成光子器件和高端光电元件提供自动化封装与测试设备，由此推 动公司进入硅光子/SiPh和CPO市场，并参与AI基础设施建设。 FiconTEC已于2025年成为RoboTech ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - On January 19, the A-share market showed a shrinking and fluctuating trend with differentiated performances among major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.29% at 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.02%, the STAR 50 fell 0.48%, the Wind All-A rose 0.41%, the Wind A500 rose 0.28%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.28%. The UHV and AVIC concepts exploded with many stocks hitting the daily limit, while the petrochemical and catering tourism sectors performed well. The CPO, OCS, semiconductor silicon wafers, and consumer electronics sectors led the decline. The A-share market's total trading volume for the day was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Index closing prices and changes: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 closed at 3075.9357, down 0.12%; the CSI 300 closed at 4734.4556, up 0.05%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8265.6462, up 0.40%. Their trading volumes were 55.87 billion, 267.61 billion, and 326.69 billion respectively, and their turnovers were 1661.80 billion yuan, 6551.49 billion yuan, and 5816.76 billion yuan respectively [3] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - Option trading volume and position: For the SSE 50, the call option trading volume was 2.84 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 1.88 million contracts, the daily trading volume was 5.25 million contracts, the call option position was 3.23 million contracts, the put option position was 2.02 million contracts, and the PCR was 0.62. For the CSI 300, the call option trading volume was 8.50 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 5.48 million contracts, the daily trading volume was 15.38 million contracts, the call option position was 9.17 million contracts, the put option position was 6.20 million contracts, and the PCR was 0.68. For the CSI 1000, the call option trading volume was 22.71 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 13.04 million contracts, the daily trading volume was 27.10 million contracts, the call option position was 13.94 million contracts, the put option position was 13.16 million contracts, and the PCR was 0.94 [3] Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility and volatility cone charts for the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, as well as their next-month at-the-money implied volatility and volatility smile curves [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market is characterized by a structural trend. On January 19, the four major index futures contracts for the current month showed mixed performance. On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. The positions of the four major index futures also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of various index futures showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4734.5, up 0.05%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3075.9, down 0.12%; the CSI 500 index closed at 8288, up 0.67%; and the CSI 1000 index closed at 8265.7, up 0.40% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of different index futures and their contracts also varied. For instance, the basis of IF2602 was -1.66, and that of IH2602 was 0.46 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each index futures contract changed. For example, the trading volume of IF2602 decreased by 5290 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1168 lots [1]. 3.2 Market Activity - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 34310 lots, IH by 18564 lots, IC by 21181 lots, and IM by 35971 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of index futures also changed. The total open interest of IF decreased by 4289 lots, IH by 1610 lots, IC increased by 6196 lots, and IM increased by 1234 lots [3]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions The positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts changed. For example, in the IF2601 contract, the long - position decreased by 1007 lots, and the short - position decreased by 724 lots [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - **A - share Market**: A - shares were in a shrinking and volatile state. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%, and the total trading volume of A - shares was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: Hong Kong stocks opened lower and closed lower. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.24%, and the total trading volume was 2256.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, down from 2550.79 billion Hong Kong dollars the previous day [7]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In 2025, China's GDP was 1401879 billion yuan, a 5% increase compared to the previous year. The national population at the end of 2025 was 1404890000, a decrease of 3390000 from the previous year, with a natural population growth rate of - 2.41‰ [7][8].

Market Performance - The three major stock indices closed mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation Index decreased by 0.21% [1] Sector Performance - The sectors leading the gains included ultra-high voltage, smart grid, and general aviation [1] - Conversely, the sectors with the largest declines were CPO, OCS, semiconductor silicon wafers, and consumer electronics [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.71 trillion yuan, which represents a decrease of 317.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]