韩国财政部长可能于7月31日与美国举行关税谈判。（韩联社） ...

Group 1 - South Korea has unexpectedly shifted its stance in handling China-US relations, imposing anti-dumping duties on China while showing intentions to engage in Taiwan Strait issues [1][3] - The cancellation of the scheduled US-Korea "2+2" economic talks did not deter the South Korean economic delegation from pursuing tariff negotiations, indicating a strong commitment to international trade cooperation [1][3] - South Korea's Ministry of Trade decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel plates and single-mode optical fibers from China, aiming to protect domestic industries during formal investigations [3][4] Group 2 - The economic relationship between China and South Korea is closely intertwined, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties by South Korea could disrupt normal trade and cooperation between the two countries [4][6] - Analysts suggest that while South Korea may increase military spending, the likelihood of direct involvement in Taiwan Strait affairs remains low, although vigilance is necessary due to potential trade-offs with the US [6] - China has expressed strong opposition to any actions that sacrifice its interests for US concessions, indicating readiness to take decisive measures to protect its rights in the international trade environment [6]

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：短期继续看回落；白银：上行空间基本饱和 强弱分析：黄金偏弱、白银中性 价格区间：760-780元/克、8800-9400元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落-0.35%，伦敦银回升1.22%。金银比从前周的87.5回落至86.3，10年期TIPS回落至1.96%，10年期名义利率回升至4.4% （2年期3.91%），美元指数录得97.6。 ◆ 本周黄金出现明显回落，外盘触及到3451美元/盎司后震荡下行，符合我们前期"黄金年内高点已现，3400-3500区间内可择机做空"的 观点。本周关税政策陆续敲定，美国对日本确定15%的"对等关税"，而日本则需要向美国投资5500亿美元并 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. It currently lacks fundamental guidance, with trading light and remaining in a volatile pattern. The US cotton growth is good, and export sales are in line with seasonal patterns. The tariff negotiations between the US and other countries also meet expectations. For domestic cotton futures, they maintained high - level volatility this week. The concern about tight old - crop inventory has been fully traded, and factors such as potential low - value warehouse receipts for September delivery and a cooling financial market sentiment have stopped the upward momentum. In the short term, the expectation of tight old - crop inventory will support prices, and as long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, with limited downward pressure on cotton prices. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [1][2][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 68.74, reached a high of 68.99, a low of 67.80, closed at 68.23, down 0.53 or - 0.77%. The trading volume was 74,713 lots, a decrease of 14,474 lots, and the open interest was 154,997 lots, an increase of 2,253 lots. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,295, reached a high of 14,330, a low of 14,095, closed at 14,170, down 100 or - 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,226,001 lots, a decrease of 230,373 lots, and the open interest was 504,805 lots, a decrease of 75,968 lots. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,540, reached a high of 20,540, a low of 20,270, closed at 20,370, down 150 or - 0.73%. The trading volume was 48,652 lots, an increase of 9,334 lots, and the open interest was 10,802 lots, a decrease of 8,256 lots [5] 3.2.基本面 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: Narrowly fluctuated this week, with good US cotton new - crop growth, average but seasonally - compliant export sales, and tariff negotiations in line with expectations. Trading was light due to lack of fundamental guidance [6] - US cotton weekly export sales data (as of July 17): 2024/25 US upland cotton net weekly signing was - 0.74 million tons due to contract cancellations. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 3.01 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 4.19 million tons, up 18% week - on - week but down 12% from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.7746 billion tons, accounting for 108% of the annual predicted total export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 2.539 billion tons, accounting for 92% of the annual total signed volume [6] - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: Sowing progress was slower than last year. As of July 18, the cotton planting area was 9.86 million hectares. Cotton sales by the Cotton Corporation of India were suspended. In May, raw cotton imports were 50,000 tons, up 10% from April and higher than last year. The cumulative import volume in the first ten months of this season was 569,000 tons. May raw cotton exports were 21,000 tons, down 4% from the previous month and 47% from May 2024. May cotton yarn exports were 83,900 tons, down 4% from April and 8% from last year. May textile exports were $2.013 billion, up 5% month - on - month and 10% from May 2024 [7] - Brazil: The US tariff increase on Brazil raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. As of July 18, the national cotton picking progress was about 15%. The 2024 - season cotton primary sales were almost completed, and about 70% of the 2025 - season and 25% of the 2026 - season cotton had been sold [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand was weak. The new - season cotton output was expected to be between 6.5 and 7.5 million bales. The policy of an 18% sales tax on cotton and cotton yarn imports was yet to be implemented, causing market uncertainty. In June, the export value of the five major textile categories was $1.27 billion, slightly higher than May and up 9% from last year. The cumulative export value in the 2024/25 fiscal year was $14.74 billion, up 8% from 2023/24 [9][10] - Bangladesh: Focused on US tariff negotiations. Textile mills mainly purchased for near - term needs. The government cancelled the 2% advance income tax on imported raw materials. Exporters to the US were worried as the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline approached. If no agreement was reached, a 35% tariff would be imposed on imports from Bangladesh [10] - Southeast Asian textile industry operating rates: As of July 25, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 73.5%, Vietnam's was 64%, and Pakistan's was 63.5% [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot price: Slightly declined with weak trading. Some 2023/24 and 2024/25 cotton spot quotes increased, and some cotton merchants lowered the basis [12] - Cotton warehouse receipts (as of July 25): There were 9,265 registered first - grade cotton warehouse receipts and 350 pending warehouse receipts, totaling 9,615, equivalent to 403,830 tons. Among the 24/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 8,891 Xinjiang cottons and 374 local cottons [12] - Downstream trading: Slightly improved. In the pure - cotton yarn market, most spinning mills' quotes were stable, with actual transactions approaching quotes. Air - jet spinning sales were relatively good. Spinning mills' profits remained unimproved, and some continued to limit production. In the all - cotton grey fabric market, the off - season continued, with some local orders and stable quotes. Some weaving mills increased their operating rates, but overall it remained low. Inventory decreased slightly but remained high [13] 3.3.操作建议 - ICE cotton: Maintain a volatile trend. There is no new downside risk currently, but the good US cotton growth and uncertain global cotton consumption limit its upward momentum. It needs a driver to break through the oscillation range. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations between the US and China, India, etc. - Domestic cotton futures: Short - term support from the expectation of tight old - crop inventory. As long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, and the downward pressure on cotton prices is limited. Technically, pay attention to the 13,600 - 13,900 support range. Also, pay attention to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [18]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and Japan involves a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, with a total investment commitment of $550 billion from Japan to the US [2][4] - The agreement includes a 12.5% tariff on Japanese automobiles, in addition to a previous 2.5% tariff, totaling 15%, while steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50% [2][4] - There are ongoing disputes regarding the details of the agreement, particularly concerning the implementation date of the 15% tariff and the interpretation of the $550 billion investment [4][5] Group 2 - Japan plans to increase its import of US rice by 75%, which will raise the total import volume to approximately 600,000 tons, while maintaining a minimum market access quota [6] - The agreement also includes significant commitments in agriculture, energy, manufacturing, and aerospace, with Japan agreeing to purchase $8 billion worth of US goods [5][6] - The Japanese government emphasizes that the increase in rice imports will not harm domestic farmers, despite concerns about the impact on local agriculture [6] Group 3 - South Korea is under pressure to negotiate a similar agreement with the US, especially in light of the recent US-Japan deal [7][8] - The new South Korean government is considering leveraging a planned investment of over $100 billion by Korean companies in the US as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations [7][8] - If South Korea fails to reach a new agreement before the August 1 deadline, a 25% tariff could severely impact its industries, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and automobiles [8][9]

Group 1 - The EU and the US are set to hold a face-to-face meeting in Scotland to discuss trade cooperation and disputes, following a phone call between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Trump [1] - The upcoming meeting is viewed as a significant step in the ongoing tariff negotiations between the EU and the US, with Trump expressing optimism about reaching an agreement [1] - The US stock market reacted positively to the news, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] Group 2 - The three major US stock indices have collectively risen, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.26%, S&P 500 up 1.46%, and Nasdaq up 1.02% for the week [3] - The S&P 500 index has set a new closing record for the fifth consecutive time, surpassing the 6300-point mark for the first time [3] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 9 sectors saw gains, with the materials sector leading with a 1.17% increase [3] Group 3 - The EU has approved a retaliatory tariff list against US products worth €93 billion, combining two previous lists targeting various goods [8] - The first round of tariffs, amounting to approximately €21 billion, was approved earlier this year, while a second list worth about €72 billion was recently passed, focusing on high-value industrial products [8] - Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, with potential for further increases if the EU retaliates [8] Group 4 - The EU has indicated that if a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached before the US tariffs take effect, it will implement countermeasures starting August 7 [9] - Concerns have been raised on Wall Street regarding the potential for a market correction due to increased speculative trading [10] - Margin debt levels on the New York Stock Exchange have surged, indicating a potential overheating in the credit market [10]

Group 1 - The US-Japan tariff agreement represents a significant advancement in economic and trade relations, with Japan committing to procure billions of dollars in defense equipment annually [1] - Japan's procurement decision is based on its established defense force enhancement plan, indicating a commitment to strengthening its national defense capabilities [1] - The agreement is expected to increase Japan's annual procurement amount by approximately $3 billion, equivalent to about 440 billion yen, reflecting efforts to improve trade relations with the US [1] Group 2 - Japan will immediately increase rice imports from the US by 75% and raise the total procurement of agricultural products like soybeans and corn to $8 billion, approximately 1.2 trillion yen [2] - The agreement acknowledges US safety standards for the automotive industry, potentially providing new opportunities and challenges for Japanese automakers in the US market [2] Group 3 - The White House spokesperson stated that the negotiations led by former President Trump resulted in an additional investment of $150 billion, bringing the total investment to $550 billion [4] - The reduction of Japan's "reciprocal tariffs" from 25% to 15% was attributed to Japan's innovative financing proposals, with future evaluations of the agreement's execution planned quarterly [5] - The agreement includes a reduction of additional tariffs on automobiles, reflecting a consensus and mutual support in economic cooperation between the US and Japan [5]

Core Points - Marcos' visit to the US aimed to negotiate tariff concessions and strengthen defense support from the US amid rising tensions in the South China Sea [1][5] - Trump's unexpected announcement of a visit to China during the meeting with Marcos undermined the latter's plans and expectations for US support [1][5] - The lack of substantial tariff benefits, with only a minor adjustment from 20% to 19%, led to criticism from Philippine media regarding Marcos' perceived capitulation to the US [5][6] Group 1 - Marcos sought tariff concessions and defense support from the US due to escalating South China Sea tensions [1][5] - Trump's intention to visit China was a significant setback for Marcos, indicating a lack of US commitment to confront China on behalf of the Philippines [1][5] - The Philippine media expressed disappointment, labeling Marcos' actions as "selling out" to the US [5][6] Group 2 - Marcos' failure to secure meaningful tariff reductions raises concerns about his political future, especially with upcoming midterm elections [6] - The rise of candidates from the Aquino family, focusing on economic and social issues, poses a challenge to Marcos' administration [6] - Public interest in the South China Sea dispute is low, with citizens prioritizing economic development and living standards over geopolitical tensions [6]

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new historical highs, driven by strong earnings reports and optimism regarding a potential trade agreement between the US and EU [1] - As of the market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 44,901.92 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.4% to 6,388.64 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.24% to 21,108.32 points [1] - European major indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX index down 0.32% and France's CAC40 index up 0.21% [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - US President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen agreed to hold face-to-face talks on July 27 to discuss trade cooperation and disputes [2] - Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, citing long-standing trade imbalances, and warned of additional tariffs if the EU retaliates [2] - The EU has approved retaliatory tariffs on US products worth €93 billion, combining two lists of tariffs targeting various goods including agricultural and industrial products [3] Group 3: Speculative Trading Risks - Wall Street analysts have raised warnings about increased speculative trading, which may heighten the risk of market corrections [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that speculative trading levels are at historical highs, with short positions in certain stocks rising over 60% [6] - Deutsche Bank highlighted that margin debt levels among NYSE investors have reached a "heated" state, with over $1 trillion in loans issued to clients [6] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - International precious metal futures saw a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.04% to $3,338.50 per ounce [8] - Crude oil prices also fell, with the main contract dropping 1.45% to $65.07 per barrel, amid complex market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks and macroeconomic concerns [8] - Agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.24% and corn futures down 0.42% [8]

Group 1 - Brazilian President Lula stated that Brazil remains open to negotiating tariff issues but has not received any communication from the U.S. expressing a desire for dialogue [1] - Lula emphasized that the outcome of former President Bolsonaro's case will be determined by the Brazilian judiciary [1] - Brazil firmly upholds its national sovereignty and does not accept interference from any country [1]