1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The bullish expectation of corn has basically been fulfilled, and it is waiting for policy guidance. The current futures market has basically reached the expected price range, and the future market will be affected by factors such as policies, supply and demand, and consumption [6][7][20]. - Pig: The supply of pigs is expected to increase, and the market is trading the logic of basis repair. The supply of pigs will increase in the second half of the year, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [9][10][55]. - Eggs: There is still an expectation of a seasonal increase in egg prices, but the overall trend may be up first and then down. The supply pressure of eggs is obvious, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and consumption seasons [15][16][86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn 3.1.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply - demand pattern of the corn spot market tightened in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated upward with the center of gravity shifting up. As of June 27, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan/ton, a 16% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. - Futures market: The bullish sentiment in the corn futures market was gradually fulfilled in the first half of the year, and the futures price oscillated upward. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, a 4.6% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. 3.1.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bullish expectation [7]. 3.1.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies, especially import policy orientation [20]. - Industry logic: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, and attention should be paid to policies such as directional rice/imported corn auctions and grain import policies [20]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, and there is still supply pressure in the US. Domestically, there is still a gap between production and demand in the long - term, and the pricing logic of substitutes remains unchanged. Consumption: Feed consumption is rigid, and industrial consumption is relatively stable [20]. - Variety view: In the short - term, the spot market is stable and slightly strong; in the medium - term, it may maintain a stable and slightly strong pattern, but the upside space may be limited; in the long - term, it maintains the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost [20]. - Trading strategy: Long - term wide - range operation; medium - term low - buying thinking; short - term test the upper pressure of the range [20]. 3.2 Pig 3.2.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply of the pig spot market increased in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated downward. As of June 27, the ex - factory price of pigs in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, a 9% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. - Futures market: The futures market fulfilled the downward expectation in advance and then traded the logic of basis repair. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 14005 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. 3.2.2 Strategy Review The main trading logic proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the strategy review effect is good [10]. 3.2.3 Market Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and pig prices and industrial policy orientation [53]. - Industry logic: After African swine fever, the normalization of diseases has led to significant fluctuations in pig prices. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding end is not over [54]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: In 2025, the supply of pigs will enter an upward cycle, and the supply in the second half of the year will still increase. Demand: The consumption of pork will gradually increase in the second half of the year, and the relative increment of supply and demand in the fourth - quarter seasonal consumption peak is the key driving force for the long - short game [55]. - Market view: In the short - term, there are both supports and pressures for pig prices; in the medium - term, the price in the third quarter depends on the release of weight pressure; in the long - term, the supply of pigs will continue to increase, and the profit of the breeding end in the fourth quarter depends on the contribution of weight to supply [56][57]. - Operation suggestion: Long - term short - selling thinking; medium - term wide - range operation around the expected support and pressure of spot prices; short - term trading the logic of basis repair driven by weight reduction [58]. 3.3 Eggs 3.3.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply pressure of the egg spot market was obvious in the first half of the year, and the price dropped significantly. As of June 27, the spot price of eggs in Handan, Hebei was 2.56 yuan/jin, a 38% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. - Futures market: The bearish expectation of the egg futures market was gradually fulfilled, and the futures price broke through and fell. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2508 contract was 3543 yuan/500KG, an 8% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. 3.3.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bearish expectation [16]. 3.3.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [84]. - Industry logic: The egg - chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four consecutive years, and the large - scale rate continues to increase [85]. - Supply - demand logic: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is mainly seasonally driven. The current egg - chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. The key to the price in the third quarter is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [86]. - Variety view: In the short - term, egg prices are weakly stable; in the medium - term, the supply pressure is high before mid - July, and if there is large - scale elimination in June - July, there may be a phased rebound in August - September [87]. - Trading strategy: The short - selling strategy in the first half of the year has been verified. For 08/09 contracts, there are differences in the expected high - point of spot prices in the second half of the year. It is recommended to enter the market after the market gives a safe space [88].

农产品日报 | 2025-06-27 现货价格整体下调，豆粕维持弱势 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2936元/吨，较前日变动-57元/吨，幅度-1.90%；菜粕2509合约2550元/吨，较前 日变动-38元/吨，幅度-1.47%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2880元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-56， 较前日变动+27；江苏地区豆粕现货2790元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-146，较前日变动+27；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌-50元/吨，现货基差M09-136，较前日变动+7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2540 元/吨，较前日变动-50元/吨，现货基差RM09-10，较前日变动-12。 期货方面，昨日收盘玉米2508合约2378元/吨，较前日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.04%；玉米淀粉2508合约2728元/吨， 较前日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，辽宁地区玉米现货价格2150元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差为 C08+2，较前日变动-1；吉林地区玉米淀粉现货价格2750元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][8] Core Views - The apple market shows stable but light trading. The reduction expectation has weakened after the bagging stage. Attention should be paid to the game between low inventory and weak demand, as well as the actual bagging data and weather changes [2][3] - The红枣 market has a general trading atmosphere in the sales areas. The high - temperature and dusty weather in the production areas may affect fruit - setting. The new - season growth has potential risks, and the market is sensitive to weather changes [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 7,726 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+0.47%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose. The bagging quantity is similar to last year. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply of seasonal fruits suppresses apple sales. The inventory is low, but there is a risk of price decline due to quality issues [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance, focusing on the game between low inventory and weak demand and the post - bagging production data [3] Red Dates (红枣) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the红枣 2509 contract was 9,630 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is general. The high - temperature and dusty weather in the production areas may affect fruit - setting. The futures price has rebounded recently, and the multi - empty game is expected to intensify [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance, closely monitoring the weather conditions during the critical growth period of new red dates [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-27 豆粕进口预期重挫盘面，关注下方支撑 油脂：关注反弹持续性，美豆产区天气良好 蛋⽩粕：豆粕进口预期重挫盘面，关注下方支撑力度 ⽟⽶/淀粉：盘面震荡运行，现货依旧坚挺 ⽣猪：上游挺价情绪强烈，需求仍在淡季 橡㬵：宏观偏暖带动胶价上行 合成橡㬵：盘面跟涨幅度有限 纸浆：弱势不改，趋势依旧 棉花：棉价延续增仓反弹 ⽩糖：内外分化，内盘震荡反弹 原⽊：基本面无明显矛盾，短期震荡运行 【异动品种】 蛋⽩粕观点：⾖粕进⼝预期重挫盘⾯，关注下⽅⽀撑⼒度 逻辑：国际⽅⾯，6月30日USDA将公布面积终值报告，市场预计美豆面积 或上调，即面积降幅或不及预期。美豆出口检验量不及预期，但美豆优良 率低于预期。美豆产区未来十五天降水偏高温度偏低。6月旱情暂无大 碍，但季度展望仍有加重趋势。巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）预估， 巴西6月大豆出口量料达到1,499万吨，高于前一周预估的1436万吨。罗萨 里奥谷物交易所提高阿根廷大豆产量预估300万吨。原油和EPA利多情绪释 放。CFTC净多持仓环比走高。预计面积终值报告前，美豆延续区间震荡 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure due to concerns about production recovery and slowing export growth. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to fall further. CBOT soybean oil may continue to decline but with limited跌幅. Domestic soybean oil prices are supported, and basis quotes are expected to be slightly adjusted [1]. Meal Industry - Affected by the decline in crude oil and fully - priced - in short - term positive factors, US soybeans have recently declined. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, and the futures may follow the decline of US soybeans in the short term, but the downside support is expected to strengthen [2]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is still in a shock structure. The current breeding profit is declining, but self - breeding and self - raising still have profits. The market is cautious about expanding production capacity. The short - term futures may be strong, but there is a risk of decline near the delivery of the 09 contract if the live inventory continues to be postponed [4][5]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn price is firm, but the upside is limited due to feed substitution. In the long term, the supply is tight, the import volume is low, and the consumption is increasing, so the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Sugar Industry - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. If there are no new negative factors, the possibility of a sharp decline in sugar prices is small. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [11][12]. Cotton Industry - The market driving force is still weak, and the downstream开机 rate continues to decline while the finished product inventory rises. However, the basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively strong. The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range [13]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is still relatively sufficient. The price is expected to rise slightly and then stabilize this week, and may decline slightly later [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On June 26, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8240 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7626 yuan, down 0.52%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8490 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of P2509 was 8230 yuan, up 0.12%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9680 yuan, down 0.52%; the futures price of 01509 was 9242 yuan, down 0.04% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 250 yuan, unchanged; the 2509 spread was - 360 yuan, unchanged. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1440 yuan, down 3.47%; the 2509 spread was 1492 yuan, down 0.67% [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On June 26, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2880 yuan, down 0.69%; the futures price of M2509 was 2993 yuan, down 1.90%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan, down 2.80%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2588 yuan, down 1.47% [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread was 380 yuan, up 13.16%; the 2509 spread was 405 yuan, down 4.69% [2]. Pig Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the pig 2507 contract was 13615 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the price of the 2509 contract was 14000 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 0.75%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.10%, the piglet price increased by 3.17%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 768.97% [4]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the corn 2509 contract was 2377 yuan, up 0.04%. The import profit was 539 yuan, up 4.03%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 60.84% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2732 yuan, down 0.15%. The Shandong starch profit was - 81 yuan, down 17.28% [7]. Sugar Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5577 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; the price of the 2509 contract was 5757 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6070 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; the price in Kunming was 5860 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 11.63% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales increased by 26.07% [11]. Cotton Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13645 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14832 yuan/ton, up 0.84%; the CC Index: 3128B was 14938 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 22.6% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3658 yuan/500KG, up 0.05%; the price of the 07 contract was 2848 yuan/500KG, down 0.84% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.78 yuan/jin, down 0.74%. The breeding profit was - 27.88 yuan/feather, down 19.30% [15].

阿根廷农林渔业国秘处发布的月报显示，阿根廷 2024/25 年度大豆种植面积预估为 1780 万公顷，较 上月预估上调 0.6%，较上一年度的 1660 万公顷增加 7.2%。阿根廷 2024/25 年度大豆产量预估为 4990 万吨，较上月预估增加 1.8%，较上年度的 4820 万吨增加 3.5%。 Mysteel：截至 2025 年 06 月 20 日，全国港口大豆库存 783.3 万吨，环比上周增加 40.60 万吨；同 比去年增加 91.03 万吨。125 家油厂大豆库存为大豆库存 637.99 万吨，较上周增加 38.39 万吨，增幅 6.40%， 同比去年增加 91.56 万吨，增幅 16.76%；豆粕库存 50.89 万吨，较上周增加 9.89 万吨，增幅 24.12%， 同比去年减少 45.88 万吨，减幅 47.41%。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线调整 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王滚辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年6月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 臣湘 | 6月25日 | 6月24日 | 张跃幅 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | | | -0.24% | 8240 | 8260 | -20 | 江苏一级 | 现价 | 7626 | 7606 | 20 | 0.26% | 期价 | Y2509 | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 614 | ୧୮୩ | -6.12% | -40 | 09+250 | 09+250 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | - | 0 | | 0.00% | 仓单 | 18882 | 18882 | 0 | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 6月25日 | 6月24日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 广东24度 | 8490 | 8490 | 0.00% | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二，玉米 | | 7 月合约多空主力明显减持，多头主力移仓有限，获利了结加剧行情 价格下调 | | | 波动。周初，东北玉米价格上涨 | | 10-30 元/吨，深加工企业多数也上调收购价格， | | | 留粮意向也较为明显。产区敞口库存有限，贸易商心态较好。华北地区玉米主流 | | | | | 价格维持稳定。山东深加工企业门前到货量车辆增加，经过上周价格的上涨，除 | | | | | 了部分本地贸易商开始出货外，部分地区东北货源继续补充华北市场，少数企业 | | | | | 玉米 | | 6-10 元/吨，但主流价格保持稳定。河南、河北地区深加工窄幅上调。 | 上涨 | | 销区市场玉米价格整体稳定，部分地区窄幅上调。周末安徽省启动小麦最低保护 | | | | | 价，产区贸易商挺价心态增加，但高价下游接受度一般，执行前期订单为主，销 | | | | | 区成交价格逐步贴近报价，议价空间缩小。技术上，玉米 | | 7 月持仓向 9 月转移的 | | | ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-25 产区天气改善，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3037元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%；菜粕2509合约2662元/吨，较前 日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.19%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2940元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-97， 较前日变动+0；江苏地区豆粕现货2850元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-187，较前日变动-10；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2880元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-157，较前日变动+0。福建地区菜粕现货价格2640 元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差RM09-22，较前日变动-15。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部出口检验报告显示，截至6月19日当周，美国大豆出口检验量19.3万吨，上周为22.3万 吨，去年同期35万吨。2024/25年度迄今美国大豆出口检验量4562万吨，同比增长10.6%，达到全年出口目标的90.6%。 截至6月22日当周，美国大豆播种工作完成96%，上周96%，上年同期96%，五年均值97%。大豆优良率为66% ...

油脂全线下挫、棉花突破上扬 一、农产品板块综述 油脂全线下挫,受到原油暴力下跌的拖累,因以色列和伊朗全面 停火,中东局势急剧降温,原油重挫。同时国内大豆压榨量处于峰值 水平,豆油供应增加,库存累库,令豆油承压下跌。棉花突破上行, 棉花本月以来的横盘区间被突破,因新疆主产区遭遇高温天气影响, 考验棉花作物生长,且虫害也有提前爆发风险,市场担忧新棉花单产 下降,支撑棉价上涨。玉米大幅下跌,因小麦替代效应以及进口玉米 拍卖预期给玉米期价回落压力。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:大幅下跌 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约周二大幅下跌,受到原油暴跌的 拖累: 1.以色列和伊朗全面停火,中东局势急速降温,原油价格暴跌, 带动油脂板块全线下跌,豆油跌幅领先。国内5月大豆进口量攀升至 历史同期高位,油厂压榨量处于峰值水平,豆油供应增加,下游需求 步入传统淡季,豆油库存累积,豆油期价承压下跌。 2.豆油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,报收长阴,跌破 10 日均线, MACD 红柱四缩小,技术转弱,策略上轻仓空单,主力 2509 合约支 撑 7900,阻力 8000。 (二) 棕榈油:大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 ...