Report Overview - **Industry**: Agricultural products [1] - **Date**: November 21, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Yulan Lan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Report's Core View - The overall international vegetable oil market is trending downward due to the uncertainty of US biodiesel policy and the weakness of crude oil futures. The three major oils show differentiated trends: palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to be weakly volatile; rapeseed oil is policy - dominated and is mainly a long - position configuration in the short term; soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400 yuan. The external market of soybean meal may fluctuate at a high level, and domestic soybean meal will adjust weakly. Egg prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and the egg futures market may grind the bottom. Cotton prices are in a narrow - range shock, waiting for a direction [8][9][52][53][87][109][111] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Directory Summary Oils - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Palm oil is weakly volatile and continues to hit new lows due to high production, weak exports, and high domestic inventory. Soybean oil futures rise first and then fall, with supply pressure in the long - term and a possible de - stocking rhythm in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, supported by inventory reduction. The overall international vegetable oil market is under pressure, and different oils have different trends [8][9] - **Core Points** - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all decreased weekly, and their basis also declined [10] - **Domestic Three - major Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil inventory increasing, palm oil inventory increasing, and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [23] - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: As of the end of the 46th week, the soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate increased, and the soybean crushing volume increased. The import rapeseed opening rate was almost stagnant. The 2025/2026 annual soybean and rapeseed arrivals have different changes compared with the previous year [25][31] - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased, and exports decreased. India's palm oil imports are expected to increase. Malaysia and Indonesia have different outlooks on palm oil prices and production [35][36] - **CFTC Positions**: The CFTC report is suspended [46] Soybean Meal - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly. The external market of US soybeans may be in a high - level shock after the USDA report, and domestic soybean meal adjusted weakly. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock and focus on the straddle double - selling strategy for options [51][52][53] - **Core Points** - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA November report adjusted the new - season US soybean data, with a decrease in planting and harvest areas, a slight decrease in the expected single - yield, and a decrease in the export item. South American soybean production is expected to remain stable. The sowing progress in different regions varies, and the weather has different impacts [54][55][56] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of October 2, the US soybean exports in the 25/26 season are lower than last year. The market is concerned about whether China can meet the procurement volume [61] - **Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing**: The pressing profit of imported soybeans is negative. The opening rate and pressing volume of oil mills may decrease in the future. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the port inventory will change [70][71] - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: As of November 14, the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The transaction in October was tepid, and the terminal demand is expected to be positive [76] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of November 20, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract increased, and it is expected to operate at a low level in the short term. The 1 - 5 spread decreased, and there is a possibility of an upward trend [82] - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the quantity is at a relatively high level in the same period [85] Eggs - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The spot egg price stabilized after a decline. The futures market may grind the bottom. It is recommended to focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options and the reverse spread rolling operation for the spread [87] - **Data Summary** - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The current laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period. The replenishment momentum has slowed down. The proportion of different - age egg - laying hens and egg sizes has changed [89][91] - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: The egg price, egg - laying hen feed cost, and egg - laying hen chick price have different changes. The breeding profit is negative [96][98] - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume has increased slightly, the culling age has advanced, and the price is at a low level in the same period [98] - **Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price**: The egg sales volume is at a low level in the same period, the inventory is relatively high, and the pig price is at a low level in the same period [104] Cotton - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The external market of cotton is weakly volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates in a narrow range. The domestic spot market is cold, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is in a shock adjustment, waiting for a direction [109][110][111] - **Core Points** - **Main Cotton - producing Countries**: The USDA November report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with an increase in production, consumption, and inventory [112] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of October 2, the US cotton sales and shipments in the 2025/2026 season have different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year [119] - **Textile Enterprises Operation**: As of November 14, the inventory of cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton grey cloth in textile enterprises has different changes, and the load index has also changed [121] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of November 21, the basis of the cotton 01 contract decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [130] - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 30, the non - commercial net position of cotton decreased. As of November 20, the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts decreased [132]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply is expected to remain in surplus in the 2025/26 season. With ample supply, the raw sugar price will likely stay weak. In the Chinese market, the old - sugar stock has been mostly cleared, new - sugar pressure is increasing, and the October import volume exceeded expectations, so the overall sugar market is expected to be weak [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Related Products**: The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean meal supply is abundant. The downward space of the current futures price is limited, but it is difficult to strengthen based on cost and profit logic alone. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Pig**: The market supply has recovered, and the price has weakened again. Although the demand is expected to increase in the short - term due to cold weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the mid - term price is not optimistic, and the increased selling enthusiasm after price recovery is not conducive to the near - month futures market. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [6]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are stable, supported by strong demand in the USDA report. In the domestic market, the short - term pressure from new cotton listing and high production, combined with weak downstream demand, may lead to a weak cotton price within a certain range, although the relatively low inventory of downstream spinning enterprises provides some support [8]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The supply in the Northeast is sufficient but the selling enthusiasm is low, and the market is quiet with stable prices. In North China, the number of trucks at deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price has slightly increased. With about 20% of the new - season corn sold, there is still selling pressure. The demand from deep - processing and feed sectors is not strong. The corn market will have intensified long - short competition and narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term [10]. - **Edible Oils**: For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD futures may stop falling and strengthen after stabilizing at 4150 ringgit. The domestic palm oil may rise to the 8900 - 9000 yuan range. The overall view is near - weak and far - strong. For soybean oil, the CBOT soybean oil is in a short - term correction. The domestic soybean oil demand is weak, but the poor crushing profit provides some support, and the support for the January contract is around 8200 yuan [13]. - **Eggs**: The laying - hen inventory remains high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions and wait and see in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased, the ICE raw sugar主力 slightly increased, the 1 - 5 spread widened, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, the Nanning basis decreased, and the Kunming basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The national and Guangxi sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the national sales rate decreased, the Guangxi sales rate increased, the national industrial inventory decreased, and the Guangxi and Yunnan industrial inventories increased. The sugar import volume increased [2]. Soybean Meal and Related Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot and futures prices of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased, the basis decreased significantly, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased slightly [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price decreased slightly, the basis increased, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans increased, the futures prices of bean one and bean two decreased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal and rapeseed meal inter - month spreads, the oil - meal ratio, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed to different degrees [4]. Pig - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2601 and 2605 decreased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions decreased, and the slaughter volume, white - strip price, and other indicators changed slightly [6]. - **Industry Indicators**: The sample - point daily slaughter volume increased slightly, the weekly white - strip price decreased, the weekly piglet price increased, the sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased slightly, the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased slightly [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2601 and 2605 decreased slightly, the ICE US cotton主力 decreased, the 5 - 1 spread widened, the main - contract position decreased, the warehouse receipt increased, and the valid forecast decreased [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased slightly, the FC Index decreased, and the basis of 3128B to 01 and 05 contracts increased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories, the bonded - area inventory, and the cotton out - of - Xinjiang shipment volume increased month - on - month. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year, the yarn and fabric inventory days, and the clothing and textile exports changed to different degrees [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the south - north trade profit decreased, the import profit decreased, the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the starch - corn 01 spread remained unchanged, the Shandong starch profit decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [10]. Edible Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, the warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the inter - month spread decreased [13]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased significantly, the import cost decreased, the import profit decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [13]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis decreased, the warehouse receipt decreased slightly, and the inter - month spread increased [13]. - **Spreads**: The inter - month spreads, the bean - palm spread, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changed to different degrees [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 12 and 01 contracts increased, the basis decreased, and the 12 - 01 spread increased slightly [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, the culled - hen price increased slightly, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the yield per unit may be further reduced, the overall production remains high. The import profit of foreign corn is declining. In the short - term, the domestic corn spot is relatively strong, but there is a potential selling pressure later. The corn starch spot is also strong due to the strength of corn, but the 01 starch on the futures market is expected to decline in the short - term [4][6][7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Futures Disk - For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2168, 2237, and 2264 respectively, with price drops of - 7, - 8, - 8 and percentage drops of - 0.32%, - 0.36%, - 0.35%. Their trading volumes are 405,905, 43,153, 1,958 with volume changes of - 4.81%, - 6.73%, 47.89%, and open interests are 932,364, 322,392, 16,703 with changes of - 1.44%, 4.02%, 0.57% [2]. - For corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2473, 2552, 2607 respectively, with price drops of - 7, - 8, - 5 and percentage drops of - 0.28%, - 0.31%, - 0.19%. Their trading volumes are 88,848, 889, 72 with volume changes of - 18.46%, 3.37%, 100.00%, and open interests are 219,992, 6,328, 551 with changes of 1.29%, 1.61%, 5.76% [2]. Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang is 1995 yuan, Songyuan Jiji is 2070 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2350 yuan, Shouguang is 2280 yuan, Jinzhou Port is 2210 yuan, Nantong Port is 2320 yuan, and Guangdong Port is 2370 yuan. The price in Shouguang increased by 10 yuan, while others remained unchanged. The corresponding basis is - 269, - 194, 86, 16, 42, 56, 106 [2]. - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng is 2680 yuan, COFCO is 2700 yuan, Cargill is 2800 yuan, Yufeng is 2890 yuan, Jinyu Corn is 2800 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2900 yuan, and Hengren Industry and Trade is 2820 yuan. All prices remained unchanged, and the corresponding basis is 128, 148, 248, 338, 248, 348, 268 [2]. Spreads - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 is - 69 with a change of 1, C05 - C09 is - 27 with no change, C09 - C01 is 96 with a change of - 1 [2]. - Starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 79 with a change of 1, CS05 - CS09 is - 55 with a change of - 3, CS09 - CS01 is 134 with a change of 2 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 343 with a change of 3, CS01 - C01 is 305 with no change, CS05 - C05 is 315 with no change [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment Corn - The U.S. corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the yield per unit will be further reduced, the production remains high. The import profit of foreign corn is declining, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2137 yuan. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable at around 2210 yuan, and the northeast corn spot price is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is still large. The wheat price in North China has risen to around 2500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, making corn more cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. Some enterprises are building inventory in the northeast. The supply of northeast corn is low recently, and traders' hoarding sentiment is strong. The 01 corn futures contract is oscillating weakly, and the spot basis is strengthening. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2770 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also strong. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 110.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still making good profits. The 01 starch futures contract is oscillating narrowly following the corn, but the North China corn price may decline in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. It is expected that the 01 starch futures contract still has room to decline in the short - term [7]. Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. For example, on November 20, 2025, for the C2605 - P - 2160.DCE option, the underlying asset price is 2237, and the closing price is 20.50; for the C2601 - P - 2080.DCE option, the underlying asset price is 2168, and the closing price is 3.00 [11]. Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread between the corn starch and corn 01 contracts [13][15][19].

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 20 日） ②进口大豆升贴水报价：墨西哥湾(12 月船期)240 美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比持平；美国西岸(12 月 船期)225 美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比持平；巴西港口(12 月船期)210 美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相 比持平。 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米延续震荡，主力 | 2601 | 合约在 | 10 | 日均线支撑下以小阳线收盘。本周前 | 两个交易日，玉米远期 | 2611 | 合约领跌，近月 | 2601 | 合约跟跌，市场担心反弹结束 | | | | | | 后期价遇阻调整。现货市场中北港上量，玉米报价承压下行。近期北港玉米到货 | 量略显提升，加之期货市场未继续上涨，市场气氛受到一定的影响，价格略有回 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 调趋势。东北产区价格也结束上涨的模式，行情 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market has a tightened global balance, with the bottom of import costs possibly emerging, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate [3][5] - The palm oil market is suppressed by over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia, but recent export improvements provide support. It may reverse the inventory build - up in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the strategy is to view it as oscillatory, turning bullish if production drops [7][8][10] - The sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season. With weak external markets and high import profits, the suggestion is to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [12][13] - The cotton market has weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year. After some negative factors were digested by previous price drops, short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate [16][17] - The egg market's short - term focus is on demand support. Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures will likely oscillate. In the medium - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [20][21] - The pig market's long - term trend is bearish due to supply surplus, but short - term counter - rallies are possible. The recommended strategies are reverse spreads first, followed by short - selling on rallies [23][24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined after reaching the cost line, and Brazilian soybean premiums fell by 3 - 10 cents/bu. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly by 30 yuan/ton, with good sales and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3492 million tons, up from last week's 2.0776 million tons. Last week, soybeans and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In Brazil, soybean planting in areas with less rainfall in the early stage is expected to go smoothly as rainfall recovers, with a planting progress of 71% as of last Thursday. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was cut by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were also reduced, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton cut in inventory [3] - **Strategy**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward space needs more production cuts. With high domestic inventories, soybean meal is expected to oscillate [5] Oils - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, domestic oil prices opened high and closed low. ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the same period last month, and the first 15 days decreased by 10% - 15.5%. SPPOMA data showed different trends in production. China's palm oil imports in October were 220,000 tons, down 11.7% year - on - year, and 1.96 million tons from January to October, down 15.3% year - on - year. Domestic spot basis was stable [7] - **Strategy**: Over - production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market, but recent export improvements provide support. Observe the sustainability. Palm oil may reverse the inventory build - up in Q4 and Q1 next year. The strategy is to view it as oscillatory, turning bullish if production drops [8][10] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fall. The closing price of the January contract was 5,381 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing factories also decreased. The basis between Guangxi spot and Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 219 yuan/ton [11] - **Supply and Demand**: The International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 season, compared to a 2.92 - million - ton deficit in 2024/25. China's sugar imports in October were 750,000 tons, up 213,200 tons year - on - year, and 3.9054 million tons from January to October, up 13.8%. India's sugar production increased significantly this year [12] - **Strategy**: Stricter import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. With expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures slightly rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was 1,294 yuan/ton [15] - **Supply and Demand**: China's cotton imports in October were 90,000 tons, down 20,000 tons year - on - year, and 780,000 tons from January to October, down 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast in the 2025/26 season. As of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.28 million tons, up 370,000 tons year - on - year [16] - **Strategy**: With weak downstream demand and high domestic production, and after previous price drops digesting some negative factors, short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate [17] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 2.82 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream demand was average, with a small inventory pressure. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with a few declines [20] - **Strategy**: The short - term focus is on demand support. Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures will likely oscillate. In the medium - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [21] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally rose slightly, with some areas stable. The average price in Henan rose 0.14 yuan to 11.76 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan rose 0.05 yuan to 11.32 yuan/kg. Farmers' reluctance to sell decreased, and supply may increase, but demand boost was limited. Today's pig prices are expected to stabilize [23] - **Strategy**: The long - term trend is bearish due to supply surplus, but short - term counter - rallies are possible. The recommended strategies are reverse spreads first, followed by short - selling on rallies [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [1]. - Soybean oil has no breakthrough driving force and mainly fluctuates within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,852 yuan/ton (up 1.65% during the day, down 0.66% at night), soybean oil主力 at 8,356 yuan/ton (up 0.43% during the day, up 0.05% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,813 yuan/ton (down 0.62% during the day, down 0.37% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,226 ringgit/ton (up 0.38% during the day, down 0.99% at night), and CBOT soybean oil主力 at 51.45 cents/pound (down 2.00%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 822,062 lots (an increase of 349,773 lots) and an open interest of 380,300 lots (a decrease of 40,243 lots). Soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 375,221 lots (an increase of 118,519 lots) and an open interest of 462,799 lots (an increase of 134 lots). Rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 311,645 lots (an increase of 96,313 lots) and an open interest of 243,297 lots (a decrease of 7,957 lots) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong was priced at 8,740 yuan/ton (an increase of 120 yuan/ton), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong at 8,720 yuan/ton (an increase of 50 yuan/ton), and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi at 10,240 yuan/ton (a decrease of 100 yuan/ton). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,055 dollars/ton (an increase of 10 dollars/ton) [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 112 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 364 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 427 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,279 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 496 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Sarawak Oil Palms Berhad aims to maximize the output of its existing plantations. Sarawak has 1.62 million hectares of oil palm plantations, accounting for 29% of Malaysia's total, but its output only accounts for 21.6% of Malaysia's palm oil output. The company's CEO expects a 5% year - on - year increase in output this year, with last year's total output at 1.25 million tons [2][3]. - **US Crop Planting**: S&P Global Energy predicts that the US corn planting area in 2026 will be reduced by 3.8% (3.7 million acres) compared to 2025, while the soybean planting area will increase by 4% (3.4 million acres) [3]. - **US Soybean Exports**: On November 19, private exporters reported the sale of 330,000 tons of soybeans to China for shipment in the 2025/2026 market year [3]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: Due to irregular rainfall, Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output at 178.76 million tons, a reduction of over 2 million tons from the September forecast. However, it will still reach a record high, a 4% increase from the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.4% to 48.31 million hectares. Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in November to reach 4.71 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.68 million tons [4]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of the week of November 12, Argentine farmers sold 533,500 tons of 2024/2025 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 39.3662 million tons, and 41,900 tons of 2025/2026 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 4.2166 million tons [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn rebounded after the November report lowered the yield, but the production remained high, and it was in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn declined, and the price of Brazilian imports in December was 2138 yuan. The domestic corn spot was relatively strong in the short - term, with stable demand from the breeding industry and low inventory of downstream feed enterprises. The 01 corn futures had room to fall later. The starch spot was strong due to the corn rebound, but the 01 starch futures on the disk also had room to fall in the short - term [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2175 with a 0.32% increase, C2605 at 2245 with a 0.18% increase, and C2509 at 2272 with a 0.22% increase. For starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2480 with a 0.52% increase, CS2605 at 2560 with a 0.23% increase, and CS2509 at 2612 with a 0.23% increase. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, etc., and the spot prices of starch in different enterprises such as Longfeng, COFCO, etc., were reported. The basis of corn and starch in different regions and enterprises was also provided [2]. - **Spreads**: Corn inter - delivery spreads (e.g., C01 - C05 was - 70 with a 3 increase), starch inter - delivery spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05 was - 80 with a 7 increase), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09 was 340 with a 1 increase) were presented [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn was in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn declined. The northern port's flat - hatch price in the north dropped, while the northeast and north China corn spots were stable. The price difference between northeast and north China corn was large. Corn had cost - effectiveness compared to wheat. The domestic breeding demand was stable, and the downstream feed enterprises' inventory was low. The 01 corn futures were strongly oscillating, and the spot basis strengthened. The market was concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn and downstream inventory building [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased, and the Shandong corn spot was stable. The starch inventory decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 110.9 million tons, a 2.4 - million - ton decrease from last week, a 1.7% monthly decrease, and a 25.6% year - on - year increase. The starch price depended on corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price was strong, and the enterprise's profit was good. The 01 starch futures followed the corn to oscillate strongly, but the north China corn price might fall in December, and the starch spot would also decline later [7]. 3.3 Corn Options - The option strategy was a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. Information about two option contracts (C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE) including the underlying price, closing price, and price change was provided [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments - Six figures were provided, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract [13][15][19].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 生猪 周二，生猪近月合约持续调整，远期跟随下跌跌幅有限。现货市场，销区猪价企 稳，部分地区报价上涨。今日江西生猪市场均价为 11.28 元/公斤，价格偏弱 0.01 元/公斤。今日头部集团厂稳定，大猪成交较好，走量较好，成交较昨日稍有改 善。广东市场生猪出栏均价为 12.16 元/公斤 ，较昨日价格稳定，与全国均价价 差相差 0.90 元/公斤， 规模场主流牌价为 11.9-12.4 元/公斤。7kg 仔猪规模厂牌 价 260 元/头左右。110-130 公斤标猪与 150 公斤以上肥猪价差为-0.84 元/公斤。 技术上，周五自本周二，生猪 7、9 月合约延续调整，短线警惕猪价调整，短多 离场，等待低位企稳的机会。 震荡 农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米近、远月合约联动调整，最近两个交易日，玉米远期 2611 合约领跌， 近月 2601 合约跟跌。今日北港价格持续上涨，东北产区粮源发北港已开始顺价。 东北产区价格 ...

生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月19日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 165 | 前值 -45 | 涨跌 210 | 张跃幅 466.67% | 单位 | | 主力合约基着 生猪2605 | 12040 | 12140 | -100 | -0.82% | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 11535 | 11695 | -160 | -1.37% | | | 生猪1-5价差 | -505 | -445 | -60 | -13.48% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 142417 | 137254 | 5163 | 3.76% | 글 | | 仓单 | 90 | 90 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11700 | 11650 | 50.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11750 | ...

1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预计略低于正常水平。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | 豆粕 | | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 西种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作，美农 11 月报告显示美豆期末库存虽然环比 | | | | 回落，但与 8 月期末库存预估一致。本周国内大豆及豆粕库存环比回落，短线关注 | | | | 调整后逢低短多机会，关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | | | 近日加方表示暂无法取消对中国关税，导致市场对于中加贸易关税改善预期降温。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨。港口库存依然同比偏高叠加豆粕调整，昨日菜粕延 | | ★ | 短线回落整理 | 续回落调整。短线关注调整后看多机会。做空谨慎对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 15 日出口数据环比较弱，累库 | | | 偏弱整理 | 预期依然存在，短期阶段性调整行情。近日进口盘面利润快速回升修复， ...