Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent may challenge $85 per barrel in the third quarter, but faces significant downward pressure in the medium to long term, potentially testing $50 per barrel within the year [6]. - In the short - term, due to uncertain Middle - East geopolitical situation, risk premium can be speculated or reversed. Fundamentally, OPEC+ production increase is lower than expected, Iranian supply is shrinking, inventory levels are low, and US shale oil supply growth is slowing, which may drive oil prices up. However, if OPEC+ effectively implements production increases, the market will face greater oversupply pressure in the medium to long term, and there may be deeper price drops within the year due to trade - war uncertainties [6]. - The recommended strategies are to hold long - position single - side orders and take profits as appropriate, and to clear long - spread positions and take profits [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - US long - term Treasury yields fluctuate significantly, and the gold - oil ratio drops from a high level [13]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and Sino - US trade relations ease [17]. - The RMB exchange rate strengthens, and social financing recovers [18]. 2. Supply - **OPEC+ Core Members**: Al - Shaheen crude in Qatar has a soaring premium, indicating supply tightness; Iraq is a key country for production - cut compensation; Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the UAE reduces Murban crude allocation; Saudi Arabia is expected to be the main driver of OPEC+ production increase, but other members' compensation cuts slow down the overall pace; Russia's oil revenue may be alleviated by rising oil prices [7]. - **Non - OPEC+ and Other Regions**: The US EIA predicts that 2025 crude oil production will reach a peak and decline in 2026. Drilling activities are decreasing, and the number of active rigs is at a low level. Iran's oil supply is at risk of interruption due to conflicts, and OPEC+ plans to gradually lift production cuts [8]. 3. Demand - Asian demand: China's crude oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz are significant. If Iranian supply is interrupted, refiners may turn to other sources. India's oil demand is growing, and Asian countries' demand for Saudi crude is affected by price [9]. - American demand: The EIA predicts an increase in US crude oil demand in 2026, and US refineries are increasing jet - fuel production [9]. - European demand: European refineries increase crude oil processing due to strong summer demand for transportation fuels, but the cost of importing Atlantic - basin crude has risen [9]. 4. Inventory - US inventory: Commercial inventory declines, and Cushing inventory stabilizes at a level significantly lower than the historical average [62]. - European inventory: Crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline [66]. - Domestic inventory: China's refined - oil profit margin recovers [69]. 5. Price and Spread - North American basis: It rebounds slightly [73]. - Calendar spread: It rebounds [74]. - SC performance: It is weaker than the overseas market, with a declining calendar spread and low valuation [75]. - Net long - position: It stabilizes [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Recent supply and demand conditions for crude oil have improved, and geopolitical risks have sharply increased, leading to a significant price increase. However, OPEC+ has sufficient idle capacity, and future production increases by OPEC+ along with the drag from the trade war on later demand, combined with high geopolitical risks, result in high volatility. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil call options [3][4]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened lower and closed higher today, with intraday pressure. The fundamentals remain loose, and the upward momentum of the market is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper have not changed significantly, maintaining the logic of a tight supply outlook and weakening marginal demand. Currently, copper prices fluctuate within a range, and the market is waiting for new guidance [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate industry chain still has a relatively loose fundamental pattern, with price games between upstream and downstream, low trading enthusiasm, and a bearish market sentiment [10][11]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea remains loose, and the demand provides only a phased rebound. The future direction of futures prices will affect market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and domestic export policies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt has been following the upward trend of crude oil recently, but due to the high volatility of crude oil, cautious operation is recommended. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt [13][14]. - **PP**: Although the inventory pressure of PP is still high, considering that China and the US have agreed to implement the results of the economic and trade talks and the significant increase in crude oil prices, it is expected that PP will rebound [15]. - **Plastic**: The inventory pressure of plastic is large, but with the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to rebound in the near future [16][17]. - **PVC**: Before the demand for PVC is substantially improved, the pressure is high. However, due to the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to have a slight rebound in the near future [18]. - **Rebar**: Although the supply of rebar has decreased, the weak demand makes it difficult to quickly digest the inventory, limiting the upward space of prices. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [19][20]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It is expected that the hot - rolled coil main contract will continue to show a narrow - range oscillating trend in the near future. Attention should be paid to factors such as demand recovery, inventory changes, and macro - economic policy adjustments [21][23]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. However, OPEC+ production growth has fallen short of expectations, and factors such as wildfires in Canada and the deadlock in the US - Iran nuclear deal negotiations have alleviated supply pressure [3]. - **Demand**: US non - farm and CPI data are better than expected, and the market risk appetite has recovered. The US has entered the traditional travel season, and crude oil inventories are decreasing. However, the current performance of refined oil demand and inventory data is poor [3]. Coking Coal - **Supply**: The operating rate of coal washing plants has increased this period, but coal plants are still affected by environmental protection factors and have a reduction expectation. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remains normal, but the inventory of coking coal is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists [5]. - **Demand**: The profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has declined significantly. After three rounds of price cuts for coke, there is still an expectation of further price cuts. The steel end remains weak, and the demand from steel mills is expected to decline [5]. Copper - **Supply**: The port inventory of refined copper ore has increased this period, and there is a risk of production reduction for smelters. However, copper production is still at a high level [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, the operating rate has slowed down, and the demand from the home appliance and real estate industries is weak [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, the utilization rate of production capacity is at a high level, and the total inventory has reached a high level [10]. - **Demand**: The terminal market has declined month - on - month, and battery enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement [10][11]. Urea - **Supply**: The supply remains loose, the daily production changes little, and there are no devices with long - term shutdown plans [12]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is expected to last until the end of June, with limited quantity, continuity, and intensity. The raw material price of compound fertilizer plants has risen, but the terminal sales are sluggish [12]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The operating rate of asphalt has rebounded, and the expected production of refineries in June has increased [13]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of most downstream industries have declined, and the national shipment volume has decreased [13]. PP - **Supply**: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, resulting in increased supply and high inventory [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream recovery is slow, and new orders are limited [15]. Plastic - **Supply**: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation, with high inventory [16][17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has declined, and new orders are limited [16][17]. PVC - **Supply**: The operating rate is high, and the supply pressure is large [18]. - **Demand**: The demand has not been substantially improved, and the real estate market is still in the process of improvement [18]. Rebar - **Supply**: Blast furnaces have reduced production for five consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of electric furnaces has continued to decline, resulting in a contraction of supply [19][20]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly, and the inventory pressure is large [20]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply**: The production is relatively stable, and there is no significant change in supply [21]. - **Demand**: The demand from the real estate, automobile, and manufacturing industries is weak, and the inventory has increased [21][23]. Market Performance - As of the close on June 18, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Crude oil rose by more than 6%, and many varieties such as p - xylene and PTA rose by more than 3%. In terms of decline, polysilicon fell by nearly 2%, and Shanghai lead fell by nearly 1%. In the stock index futures market, most contracts rose slightly, and in the bond futures market, there were both rises and falls [7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:03, funds flowed into varieties such as Shanghai silver 2508 and crude oil 2508, while funds flowed out of contracts such as CSI 1000 2506 and CSI 300 2506 [7][8].

【冠通研究】 原油：大幅上涨 制作日期：2025年6月18日 【策略分析】 轻仓买入原油看涨期权 欧佩克+同意7月份将石油产量提高41.1万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次增产与5月和6月的 增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于7月6日举行下一次会议，决定8月产量政策。据知情人士透 露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过OPEC+产量增长不 及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近35万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈 判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和伊朗近期已经将袭击目 标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色列核伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风 险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求 端，美国非农数据、CPI数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季，原油去库，只是目前成品油需求与库存数据表现不佳。 全球贸易战对经济的伤害悲观预期仍未完全扭转，最新的EIA短期能源展望报告将2025年全球石油库 存增幅从0.4万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term war situation has a risk of escalation, and the significant reduction in US API inventory supports oil prices. Although the IEA slightly lowered the expected increase in crude oil demand for this year and next year in its monthly report, the impact is limited. The market focus remains on the war situation. The domestic crude oil performs the strongest due to supply sources. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the future. The short - term range is 550 - 560, and long - term long positions should be closed at high levels [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump warned that the US patience is running out and urged Iran to "unconditionally surrender". He also said Japan was "tough" in trade talks and the EU hadn't proposed a fair agreement. The IEA lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day (previously 740,000 barrels per day) and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day (previously 760,000 barrels per day) [3]. - **Basis**: On June 17, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.74 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $73.62 per barrel, with a basis of 28.07 yuan/barrel, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels in the week ending June 13, far exceeding the expected decrease of 580,000 barrels. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.644 million barrels in the week ending June 6, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.96 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 403,000 barrels in the week ending June 6, compared with an increase of 576,000 barrels in the previous value. As of June 17, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 4.029 million barrels, remaining unchanged [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the price was above the average line [3]. - **Main Position**: As of June 10, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: The short - term range is 550 - 560, and long - term long positions should be closed at high levels [3]. 2. Recent News - There are reports that Trump is planning to provide direct military assistance to Israel in the Israel - Iran war, which may involve the US in another Middle - East war. Iran has warned that it will attack US bases in the region if the US intervenes. The US has sent about 30 refueling planes to Europe [5]. - The air war between Israel and Iran has entered the fifth day. Trump urged Iran to "unconditionally surrender" and said he knew the whereabouts of Iranian leader Khamenei. The US is deploying more fighter jets to the Middle East, and some of Khamenei's main military and security advisors have died in the Israeli attack. Iran's network security command has banned officials from using communication devices and mobile phones [5]. - The Trump administration has shelved a cross - departmental working group established to force Russia to accelerate peace talks with Ukraine, as Trump has no intention of taking a tougher stance on Russia [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: The Middle - East war situation may further escalate, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may intensify again [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US trade relations with other economies remain tense [6]. - **Market Driver**: Geopolitical conflicts drive the short - term market, and the market awaits the peak summer demand season in the long - term [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil dropped from $74.23 to $73.23, a decrease of $1.00 or 1.35%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil dropped from $72.98 to $71.77, a decrease of $1.21 or 1.66%. The settlement price of SC crude oil rose from 513.7 to 540.9, an increase of 27.2 or 5.29%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil rose from $72.78 to $73.15, an increase of $0.37 or 0.51% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $75.29 to $73.83, a decrease of $1.46 or 1.94%. The price of WTI dropped from $72.98 to $71.77, a decrease of $1.21 or 1.66%. The price of Oman crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region rose from $72.83 to $72.95, an increase of $0.12 or 0.16%. The price of Shengli crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region rose from $70.26 to $70.86, an increase of $0.60 or 0.85%. The price of Dubai crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region rose from $72.70 to $73.00, an increase of $0.30 or 0.41% [9]. - **API Inventory**: As of June 13, the API inventory was 450.595 million barrels, a decrease of 10.133 million barrels from the previous period [10]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of June 6, the EIA inventory was 432.415 million barrels, a decrease of 3.644 million barrels from the previous period [14]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand gap and production data of OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 - Q4 are presented [20]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of June 10, the net long position was 191,941, an increase of 23,984 from the previous period [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of June 10, the net long position was 196,922, an increase of 29,159 from the previous period [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and OPEC's production and demand forecasts [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, with low - sulfur fuel oil supply remaining tight and high - sulfur fuel oil supported by demand [3]. - Asphalt is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints [3]. - Polyester products are expected to be volatile. PTA has a weak supply - demand situation and depends on cost changes; EG is under short - term price pressure [4]. - Rubber is expected to be weakly volatile, with supply increasing and demand weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [6]. - Methanol is expected to have increased volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to control risks [8]. - Polyolefins are expected to have increased price volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short - term [8]. - PVC is expected to be volatile. In the short - term, it is weak under the influence of the off - season, but the long - term multi - empty situation is changing [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices opened high and closed low. WTI July contract closed down $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; Brent August contract closed down $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. SC2507 closed at 530.4 yuan/barrel, down 10.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in May averaged 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April. OPEC maintained its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.38% to 3,276 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2508 rose 1.28% to 3,874 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.77% to 3,667 yuan/ton. It is expected that refinery复产 will drive a slight increase in production next week, but overall supply remains low. The demand in the north is relatively stable, while that in the south is weak due to rain [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.33% at 4,766 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.92% at 4,374 yuan/ton. Some Iranian MEG plants have stopped production, and some domestic polyester plants plan to reduce production [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 35 yuan/ton to 13,910 yuan/ton. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade warehouses increased, while that in the bonded area decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton. The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO device operation rate is high, and the port inventory increase will slow down. The price has rebounded rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton. Due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, short - term price volatility will increase, and the long - term fundamentals have not improved significantly [8]. - **PVC**: On Monday, the PVC market in East, North, and South China had slight adjustments. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term performance is weak [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and related changes of various energy - chemical products on June 17, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [11] 3.3 Market News - Iran has requested Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, and several European countries to urge President Trump to pressure Israel to achieve a cease - fire. Trump confirmed that Iran hopes to ease the conflict. OPEC expects the global economy to remain strong in the second half of this year and has lowered its forecast for the growth of oil supply from non - OPEC countries in 2026 [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG from 2021 to 2025 [15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [73] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, achievements, and professional qualifications [79]

2025 年 06 月 15 日 行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] "狮子的力量"撼动油市，地缘溢价能撑多久？ ——石油石化事件点评 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2025 年 6 月中旬，以色列空袭伊朗前，美伊核谈已传出不容乐观的 消息，原油 VIX 直线飙升。据 Macrobond 数据，美伊达成协议的概 率从约 50%骤降至 25%左右。 事件发生后，市场担忧冲突影响原油供应，纷纷买入原油期货避险， 推动盘国际油价大幅飙升。据百度股市通，截至美东时间 6 月 12 日 22:50，美油 2507 合约上涨 11.96%，布油 2508 合约涨超 11%。同 时，黄金作为传统避险资产也出现拉升，COMEX 金 2506 合约上涨 1.7%。 伊朗是 OPEC 第三大产油国。截至 2021 年，伊朗石油探明储量达 2086 亿桶，约占全球总储量的 9%（2020 年数据）。20 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - Israel's airstrike on Iran has escalated geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, which briefly surpassed $3,400 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices both rising over 7% in response to the conflict [1] - Iran, as the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, controls the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for nearly 40% of global oil exports; any disruption in this area could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices [2][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Despite the airstrike, Iran's oil facilities remain operational, but market concerns about ongoing geopolitical tensions persist [2] - Analysts predict that the combination of escalating tensions, seasonal demand, and other factors will support higher oil prices in the short term [2] - Historical data shows that conflicts have previously led to significant spikes in oil prices and shipping costs, indicating potential for similar outcomes in the current situation [5] Group 3: Shipping and Transportation Impacts - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to oil tanker rates increasing significantly, similar to past conflicts where shipping costs surged due to heightened risks [5][6] - The shipping industry may see a structural improvement in oil tanker demand due to the geopolitical situation, although the probability of a complete blockade is considered low [6] - The impact of the conflict on container shipping rates is being assessed, with concerns about the safety of vessels in the region, particularly those associated with Israel [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，沙特将 7 月阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售价下调 20 美分 /桶，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省 的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局， 美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，特朗普表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱，美方授权 美军家属可自愿撤离中东，缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模，伊朗防长表示如果核 谈判失败并与美国冲突，伊朗将打击该地区的美军基地。以色列开始袭击伊朗， 中东地缘风险急剧升温，有报道称伊朗高级议员表示与美国的会谈将不会举行。 美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and gas industry [6][7]. Core Views - OPEC+ has announced a continuation of production increases of 411,000 barrels per day for July, significantly impacting oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies [1][2]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. May Oil Price Review - In May 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $64.0 per barrel, down $2.5 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $61.3 per barrel, down $1.5 [1][14]. - Oil prices experienced significant fluctuations due to tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, with OPEC+ planning to accelerate production in June [1][14]. 2. Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has extended its production increase plan, with a significant rise in output expected to be completed by October 2025, ahead of the original schedule [2][19]. - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 730,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and 760,000 to 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026 [3][17]. 3. Key Data Tracking 3.1 Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - As of May 30, 2025, WTI crude oil settled at $60.79 per barrel, up $2.6 (+4.4%), while Brent settled at $63.90, up $0.8 (+1.2%) [36]. - The average Brent-WTI price spread was $3.07 per barrel, narrowing by $0.45 from the previous month [36]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.4 million barrels per day in May 2025, a decrease of 42,000 barrels per day (-0.3%) [44]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased by 13 to an average of 468 rigs [44]. 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends investing in China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy, all rated as "Outperform" [4][6].