Group 1 - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates at 0.5% while reiterating its commitment to gradually increase borrowing costs to curb further depreciation of the yen and rising inflation [1][2] - There is a divergence within the Bank of Japan's review committee, with hawkish members advocating for immediate rate hikes, while dovish members, led by Governor Ueda, prefer to wait for more data on the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1] - The new Prime Minister, Suga, has led to a significant reduction in expectations for a rate hike in October, with most analysts predicting that rates will remain unchanged after the meeting [1][2] Group 2 - A survey indicates that most economists expect a rate hike in either October or December, with a target of reaching 0.75% by the end of March [2] - Ueda has emphasized the need to be cautious about tariffs disrupting the wage-price cycle, while also indicating an upward revision of growth forecasts for the current fiscal year [2] - The dollar/yen exchange rate is currently in a phase of directional determination, with key resistance at 153.20, and potential risks if the Bank of Japan issues overly dovish statements [3]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from Allianz Global expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% this week, while also trying to avoid the impression that rates will remain unchanged indefinitely [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan appears to be preparing for a rate hike, but challenges such as domestic political uncertainty, international trade tensions, and delays in U.S. economic data complicate this decision [1] - A rate hike is anticipated to occur in December, although there is a risk it could be postponed until January [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Japanese economic data remains stable, and further depreciation of the yen is undesirable, suggesting that the Bank of Japan is laying the groundwork for the next rate increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rising inflation in Japan provides a clear basis for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again in December, with the central bank currently viewing a December rate hike as the baseline scenario [1] Inflation Data - In September, Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose by 2.9% year-on-year, accelerating from 2.7% in August, aligning with market expectations and significantly exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% price stability target [1] Economic Factors - Strong underlying inflationary pressures, coupled with steady wage growth, are effectively boosting private consumption expenditure, which supports the sustainability of inflation [1] - The continued weakness of the yen is seen as a significant short-term driver of rising inflation [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Rising import costs may further translate into higher end prices in the coming months, reinforcing the necessity for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy [1] - The expectation is that this will support the Bank of Japan in raising interest rates in the coming months, with December's rate hike viewed as a basic scenario [1]

Core Viewpoint - The expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan have significantly decreased following the election of Prime Minister Sanna Takagi, with most economists now predicting a potential hike in December rather than in the immediate future [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Predictions - Only about 10% of economists expect a rate hike at the upcoming October 30 meeting, a sharp decline from 36% in the previous survey [1]. - December is now the most anticipated month for a rate hike, with 50% of economists predicting action then, followed by 38% expecting a hike in January [1]. - The median forecast for the terminal rate of the current rate hike cycle is now expected to be 1%, indicating two more hikes, down from a previous expectation of 1.25% [4]. Group 2: Political Influence - The election of Prime Minister Sanna Takagi, known for advocating monetary easing, has led to a more cautious approach regarding rate hikes, with 72% of respondents indicating that Japan's unstable political situation reduces the likelihood of a hike this month [4]. - Economists believe that under Takagi's leadership, the Bank of Japan will need to communicate more carefully with the government regarding rate hikes [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Market expectations for a policy adjustment this month are hovering around 10%, a stark contrast to the 95% expectation seen before the January rate hike [5]. - The Bank of Japan faces the challenge of maintaining market expectations for a rate hike to prevent further depreciation of the yen, which recently fell to an eight-month low against the dollar [8]. - There is a focus on whether the Bank of Japan can convey a "hawkish hold" stance to avoid excessive yen depreciation while minimizing friction with the Takagi government [8].

Core Viewpoint - The chief Japan economist at UBS, Masamichi Adachi, suggests that an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the coming months appears justified due to current economic conditions [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Japan's real interest rates are currently negative, contributing to a very accommodative financial environment [1] - Inflation dynamics indicate that the central bank should consider reducing its accommodative policies, as long-term inflation expectations are projected to rise towards 2.0% [1] Group 2: Future Projections - UBS anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in January, with a possibility of a rate hike as early as December [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing high volatility, with uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, influenced by both domestic political changes and persistent inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has expressed a cautious stance regarding interest rate hikes, leading to market uncertainty about a potential increase at the end of October [1]. - Japan's inflation rate has consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three consecutive years since 2023, prompting increasing internal pressure for a return to interest rate hikes [1]. - In the September policy meeting, two out of nine committee members proposed interest rate hikes, indicating a growing internal consensus on the need for action despite the lack of full inflation pressure visibility [1]. Group 2: Currency Impact and Economic Risks - If the Bank of Japan continues to delay interest rate hikes, the yen may weaken further, increasing import prices and exacerbating the cost of living for Japanese citizens [2]. - The persistent weakness of the yen poses a long-term challenge for the Japanese economy, particularly amid global fluctuations in energy and commodity prices [2]. - Analysts warn that failure to act on interest rates could threaten the stability of the Japanese economy due to potential further depreciation of the yen [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of USD/JPY - The USD/JPY exchange rate has encountered significant resistance around 152.00, resulting in a high-level consolidation pattern, with support concentrated in the 150.50–150.00 range [3]. - A breakdown below the support level could lead to a decline towards the 149.40–149.35 range, indicating potential short-term adjustment pressures [3]. - Technical indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining from high levels and the MACD histogram showing reduced volume, signaling short-term adjustment challenges [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo remains uncertain about the timing of interest rate hikes amid global economic headwinds and trade tensions between the U.S. and China, despite some internal pressure for quicker action [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global growth forecast for 2025 but warns that renewed U.S.-China trade tensions could hinder output [3]. - Ueda's views on the global and U.S. economies have not changed significantly since his time in Japan, indicating a cautious approach to potential rate hikes [1][2]. Group 2: Internal Pressure for Rate Hikes - There is increasing pressure within the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, as inflation has remained above the 2% target for three consecutive years [3]. - Two members of the Bank's nine-member board proposed a rate hike in September, reflecting a growing sentiment for action [3]. Group 3: Risks of Delaying Rate Hikes - Delaying interest rate increases could lead to further depreciation of the yen, which would raise import prices and living costs [4]. - The potential new Prime Minister, who supports loose monetary policy, may limit the Bank's ability to communicate effectively before the next policy meeting [4].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, may continue tightening monetary policy if confidence in achieving economic targets increases, indicating a potential for interest rate hikes in the short term [1] - Ueda plans to gather information during ongoing international meetings and will evaluate data before the monetary policy meeting scheduled for October 29-30 [1] - Financial markets currently estimate a 17% chance of the Bank of Japan taking action this month, down from 68% a few weeks ago, reflecting political uncertainty and recent leadership changes [2] Group 2 - Political instability, including the withdrawal of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition, complicates the situation and diminishes the prospects for policy normalization in the short term [2] - The persistent weakness of the yen may pressure the Bank of Japan to act before inflation worsens, although Ueda did not specifically address the impact of domestic political instability on policy decisions [2] - Ueda highlighted that the effects of tariffs are expected to manifest slowly, with many institutions still incorporating tariff factors into their economic forecasts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty in Japan's fiscal outlook and weak economic data may lead the Bank of Japan to postpone its next interest rate hike from October to January next year [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, indicates that the recent election of Fumio Kishida as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and the exit of Komeito from the ruling coalition necessitates Kishida to seek support from other parties [1] - The opposition now has more leverage to push for high-cost measures, such as tax cuts equivalent to 2.8% of GDP [1] - Weak manufacturing profits may limit wage growth next year, while a significant decline in the Bank of Japan's consumption activity index shows that rising food prices are dragging down household spending [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Recent comments from Bank of Japan officials suggest that they are not in a hurry to tighten monetary policy and are assessing the overall impact of U.S. tariff measures [1] - The potential delay in interest rate hikes may keep the yen weak for an extended period, which could support the Tokyo Stock Exchange index [1]

周五（10月10日）亚洲交易时段，美元/日元在触及2月13日以来新高153.2700后略有下降，不过下行空 间受限，最新美元兑日元汇率报152.7900，跌幅0.18%，日本10年期公债收益率周五触及逾17年高点， 因日元疲软提高了人们对日本央行将加息的押注。 10年期日本公债收益率上升1个基点至1.7%，为2008年7月以来最高。三井住友信托资产管理公司高级 策略师稻留克俊说，"日元疲软加剧了人们对日本央行可能提前加息的揣测。" 在自民党总裁选举中，财政鸽派人士高市早苗胜出，市场此前对日本央行可能推迟加息的押注出现逆 转。之所以出现这种逆转，是因为市场担心日元疲软可能会提振进口价格，从而加速通胀。 日本五年期公债收益率上升0.5个基点至1.24%，为2008年7月以来的最高水平。两年期日本公债收益率 持平于0.925%。20年期日本公债收益率下跌1个基点，至2.705%。30年期日本公债收益率持平于 3.175%。 前日本央行官员、曾参与过去外汇干预的Atsushi Takeuchi表示，如果日元急剧跌向160，日本可能会进 行干预，并警告过度贬值可能会迫使东京出手。 Takeuchi表示，到目前为止日元的 ...