Core Insights - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which includes a reduction of tariffs to 15% and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US, is expected to significantly alleviate the tariff pressures faced by Japanese manufacturing [1][2] - Barclays has raised its GDP growth forecast for Japan by 0.3 percentage points to 0.8% for the fiscal year 2025, citing positive effects from the new trade agreement [2] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations have been moved forward from January 2024 to October 2023 due to the favorable conditions created by the trade agreement [3] Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The trade agreement allows Japan to open its markets to US goods, which is anticipated to increase imports and positively impact Japan's economy [2] - The agreement is seen as a catalyst for potential wage increases in Japan, with a possibility of achieving a 4.5% or higher wage growth in the upcoming spring negotiations [4][7] Group 2: Economic Forecast Adjustments - Barclays had previously downgraded Japan's growth forecast by 0.7 percentage points to 0.5% due to uncertainties and reduced exports to the US, but the new agreement has led to an upward revision [2] - The agreement is expected to reduce the downward pressure on corporate profits, which may further support wage increases in the manufacturing sector [7] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The conditions for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have been met, with the tariff reduction being a significant factor [3] - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor has indicated that the trade agreement is a crucial development that reduces economic uncertainty and enhances the likelihood of achieving the 2% inflation target [3]

凯投宏观：日本央行10月加息概率上升 金十数据7月24日讯，凯投宏观经济学家Marcel Thieliant指出，日本央行10月份加息的可能性似乎更 大。Thieliant表示，美国和日本之间达成的贸易协议消除了一项关键的下行风险，日本央行可能会在下 周的会议上对经济前景做出更乐观的评估。由于通胀远超日本央行的预期，Thieliant坚持认为，日本央 行将在10月份恢复紧缩周期。 ...

认为下次加息在10月的受访者比例从30%微升至32%，预计1月行动的比例也从34%小幅增至36%。总体来看，近80%的受访者预计明年1月前会有动作。 调查显示，所有56位经济学家均预测行长植田和男领导的政策委员会将在7月31日结束的为期两天的会议上维持基准利率0.5%不变。 根据在美国总统特朗普宣布美日贸易协议前进行的调查，日本央行观察人士普遍预计当局将在10月或1月上调基准利率。 随着关税前景明朗，下周日本央行会议焦点将转向季度经济展望报告。鉴于今年通胀率持续保持在3%及以上，市场普遍预期央行将上调物价展望，并修正 物价增长风险平衡评估。 凯投宏观亚太区主管马塞尔.蒂利安特指出："通胀远超日本央行5月预测。尽管需要上调本财年通胀预期，但关键在于是否维持2026财年的悲观预测，并仍 认为存在下行风险。" 植田和男主持政策辩论之际，石破茂领导的自民党在周日参议院选举中遭遇历史性挫败，导致执政联盟在参众两院均失去多数席位。 没有受访者认为选举结果会促使提前加息。约35%认为会推迟加息，近同等比例认为属中性因素。 10月和1月仍是日本央行加息的最佳时机 特朗普宣布将日本商品的全面关税税率设定为15%，低于原定8月1 ...

金十数据7月23日讯，荷兰合作银行外汇策略师Jane Foley在一份报告中表示，如果日本央行在年底前加 息的可能性上升，日元将受益。她说，假设未来几周政治不确定性有所缓解，美日贸易协议的通过和上 周日参议院的选举结果可能会增加日本央行进一步加息的可能性。"鉴于日本央行将于7月31日召开会 议，市场将有机会评估该贸易协议可能对货币政策产生的影响。"市场普遍预期日本央行将维持政策稳 定，但市场将寻找未来可能加息的线索。 荷兰合作银行：如果加息的可能性增加，日元可能会升值 ...

金十数据7月23日讯，凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant指出，美日贸易协议的达成预示着日本央行 将在今年重启紧缩周期。Thieliant表示，该协议消除了日本经济面临的一个关键下行风险。随着贸易谈 判显然取得成功，据报道日本首相石破茂将于8月辞职。考虑到自民党在周日参议院选举中的糟糕表 现，这并不令人意外。总体而言，最新事态发展增强了凯投宏观的观点，即日本央行将在10月会议上恢 复加息。 凯投宏观：美日贸易协议消除关键风险，日本央行或于10月恢复加息 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies, the increased expectation of Powell's early departure and subsequent Fed rate - cuts, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions on price pull - backs. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different gold and silver markets [1]. 3. Summary by Content a. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On 2025 - 07 - 22, the closing price was 780.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan from the previous day and 7.80 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 49,546.00, an increase of 9,284.00 from the previous day and 22,476.00 from last week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 9368.00 yuan/kg, up 142.00 yuan from the previous day and 259.00 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 537,430.00, an increase of 236,642.00 from the previous day and 53,632.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 3444.00, up 33.70 from the previous day and 91.90 from last week. Trading volume was 217,981.00, an increase of 32,635.00 from the previous day and 37,040.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 39.66, up 0.42 from the previous day and 1.25 from last week. Trading volume was 57,469.00, an increase of 7,611.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 18,727.00 from last week [1]. b. Important Information - **U.S. News**: Trump announced a trade deal with Japan where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will get 90% of the profits. There are also developments regarding Powell's "resignation" and calls for Fed rate - cuts. The U.S. House passed a stablecoin - related bill and inflation data showed mixed trends [1]. - **European News**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, and there are expectations of further rate - cuts by the end of 2025. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI and CPI data have influenced market expectations [1]. - **UK News**: The Bank of England cut the key rate in May and continued bond - selling. With CPI data and GDP trends, there is an increased expectation of rate - cuts in August and by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan News**: The Bank of Japan raised rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 based on CPI data [1]. c. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) showed certain changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 compared to previous days and weeks [1]. - **Other Commodities**: Prices of INE crude, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore also had their respective changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. d. Interest Rates and Stock Indices - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai inter - bank lending rates (SHIBOR), U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields, and inflation - adjusted yields had changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index showed different trends on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1].

金十数据7月23日讯，东京三井住友银行首席外汇策略师置评美日贸易协议：这对日本经济来说是个好 消息。然而，仅凭这一点并不会促使日本央行提高利率，而且对购买日元的推动力可能有限。如果说有 什么不同的话，那就是政治不稳定对市场的影响更大，日元贬值的压力可能会继续下去。 策略师：仅凭美日贸易协议，日本央行不会加息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent election results in Japan may create a dilemma for the central bank, as increased spending could keep inflation high, while political paralysis and global trade tensions provide reasons to delay interest rate hikes [2][3] Economic Impact - Rising living costs contributed to the ruling coalition's defeat in the recent Senate elections, with inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years [2] - Analysts warn that ongoing political uncertainty could weaken the yen and increase import costs, exacerbating price pressures [2][3] Central Bank Strategy - New Bank of Japan member Junko Koeda emphasized the need to monitor the "second-round effects" of rising rice costs, while other members suggest that the central bank may need to resume rate hikes as inflation risks increase [2][3] - The Bank of Japan's current strategy involves a cautious approach, with a pause in rate hikes until the economic impact of U.S. tariffs is clearer [4] Political Dynamics - Prime Minister Kishida plans to collaborate with other parties to mitigate inflation's impact on households, potentially leading to a supplementary budget larger than last year's 14 trillion yen (approximately 95 billion USD) [3] - The ruling coalition's minority status in both houses of parliament may necessitate compromises with opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased spending [3] Currency and Market Reactions - Analysts express concerns that Japan's significant debt and political instability may weaken the yen, casting doubt on the central bank's view that cost-push inflation will ease later this year [3][4] - A potential decline in the yen could trigger further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, as historical precedents show sensitivity to political dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election poses significant challenges for the ruling coalition, which must secure at least 50 additional seats to maintain a majority in the Senate [1][2]. Group 1: Election Context - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, currently holds 75 non-renewable seats in the Senate and needs to win 50 more to maintain a majority [1]. - The election outcome could lead to various fiscal policies, including cash handouts and potential consumption tax cuts, depending on the coalition's performance [2][3]. Group 2: Possible Scenarios - Scenario A: The ruling coalition retains a majority, increasing the likelihood of cash handouts being included in the 2025 supplementary budget, but no consumption tax cuts in the 2026 tax reform proposal [2]. - Scenario B: The ruling coalition slightly loses its majority, leading to potential alliances with opposition parties, which may result in both cash handouts and temporary consumption tax cuts [3]. - Scenario C: A significant loss of majority may force the ruling coalition to include opposition parties, facing pressure for both cash handouts and consumption tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The cash handout policy, amounting to approximately ¥3.5 trillion (about 0.6% of GDP), is expected to have limited impact on economic growth, with only a projected 0.2% increase in private consumption and 0.1% in GDP [7][9]. - In contrast, a reduction in the food consumption tax from 8% to 0% could lead to a more substantial GDP growth of about 0.5% due to a decrease in the effective consumption tax rate [9]. - Analysts warn that temporary consumption tax cuts may lead to a significant GDP decline of 6% in Q2 2027 when these measures expire, potentially prompting political pressure to extend them [12]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite uncertainties surrounding the election, expectations remain that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, maintaining the policy rate unchanged for the remainder of the fiscal year [13].

Group 1 - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.599%, the highest level since 2008, driven by concerns over fiscal spending ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [1] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a record 3.21%, while the 20-year yield hit its highest level since 1999 [1] - Market expectations of fiscal expansion policies due to the Senate elections are contributing to the rise in long-term and ultra-long-term bond yields [1][3] Group 2 - Discussions among Japanese politicians regarding lowering the consumption tax are intensifying ahead of the Senate elections, which may lead to increased economic volatility [3] - The current inflation rate in Tokyo decreased to 3.1% in June from 3.6% in May, but remains high, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to adjust its inflation expectations and accelerate its next interest rate hike [3] - The supply-demand imbalance in the Japanese bond market may worsen, particularly as life insurance companies' capacity to absorb new supply has declined [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan announced plans to slow the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting April next year, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% due to increasing economic risks [4] - The Bank of Japan reiterated its plan to reduce monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds by approximately 400 billion yen (about 2.76 billion USD) each quarter until March 2026, consistent with previous guidelines [4]