Group 1 - The overall strong performance of the technology sector and the index in the third quarter is expected to continue, maintaining the allocation strategy of "technology + Hong Kong dividend + non-bank brokerages" [1] - With the recovery of market risk appetite and the emphasis on the capital market's role in "expectation management," the allocation value of high-dividend sectors in Hong Kong stocks is highlighted [1] - The trend of "deposit migration" among residents is becoming evident, leading to a gradual inflow of funds into the stock market, which may benefit dividend assets like high-dividend Hong Kong stocks due to optimistic market sentiment [1] Group 2 - There is a caution regarding increased volatility in early to mid-September, suggesting a focus on dividend and state-owned enterprise allocation opportunities [1] - In the long term, the capital market remains a core tool for policy to "stabilize confidence," and high-dividend assets in Hong Kong stocks continue to be attractive under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects 30 securities with continuous dividends, good liquidity, and outstanding dividend yields from the Stock Connect range, focusing on traditional high-dividend sectors like finance, energy, and industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dividend assets serve as a dual-purpose investment, providing both growth potential akin to stocks and stable income similar to bonds, making them an effective balancing tool in investment portfolios [1]. Group 1: Dividend Assets Characteristics - Dividend assets are rooted in sectors closely tied to economic cycles, such as coal, petrochemicals, and finance, exhibiting strong stock-like characteristics while also offering regular dividends [1]. - The unique cross-asset nature of dividend assets allows them to effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility while potentially enhancing returns, achieving a surprising effect of 1+1>2 in holding experience [1]. Group 2: Performance with Other Assets - The "Dividend + Gold" combination effectively controls maximum drawdown while improving the risk-return ratio, especially beneficial during periods of gold market downturns [1][2]. - The "Dividend + Commodity" strategy enhances returns, risk-return ratios, and reduces maximum drawdown compared to holding commodities alone, demonstrating resilience during market downturns [5]. - The "Dividend + Bond" approach offers higher long-term compound return potential with limited increase in maximum drawdown, providing strong inflation resistance [8]. - The "Dividend + Growth" strategy lowers volatility and maximum drawdown while maintaining the elasticity of growth assets, thus improving the risk-return ratio [10]. Group 3: Investment Tools - The E Fund (515180), tracking the CSI Dividend Index, is highlighted as a low-fee quality option for investors seeking to allocate to A-share dividend products [12].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance asset management industry in China shows a stable outlook for the second half of 2025, with expectations of moderate economic growth and a preference for equities in investment strategies [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Most insurance institutions expect the macroeconomic environment to maintain stable growth, with GDP growth projected between 4.5% and 5.5%, CPI growth between 0% and 0.5%, and PPI growth between -3.5% and -2.0% [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to appreciate steadily, with key areas of focus including exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [1]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Insurance institutions predict a moderately accommodative monetary policy in the second half of the year, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [1]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, leaning towards expansion to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially through the issuance of ultra-long special bonds [1]. Asset Allocation Preferences - Equities are the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half of the year, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [1]. - Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in equity and bond investments [1]. Bond Market Outlook - A neutral to optimistic outlook is held for the bond market, with expectations for 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.4% and 1.6%, and medium to high-grade credit bond yields between 1.5% and 2.0% [2]. - There is a favorable view on ultra-long special bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years, influenced by economic fundamentals, monetary policy easing, and market liquidity [2]. A-Share Market Outlook - A generally optimistic view is held for the A-share market, with expectations for the Shanghai Composite Index to likely remain between 3200 and 3800 points [2]. - Insurance institutions are particularly optimistic about stocks related to the CSI 300 index, focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [2]. Overseas Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half of the year, with 40% of insurance institutions also showing interest in bond and gold investments [3].

Core Insights - The recent decline of the 40-day return difference of the CSI Dividend Index to -10.28% indicates a historically extreme level of underperformance compared to the broader market [1][3] - Despite this underperformance, there is a notable influx of capital into dividend assets, suggesting that investors are taking advantage of the current market sentiment and fundamentals [1][3] Group 1: Market Signals - The drop below -10% in the return difference is a significant "contrarian signal," indicating a potential shift in the relative attractiveness of dividend assets [3] - The current level of -10.28% suggests that dividend stocks have been under pressure for too long, creating a potential opportunity for investors [3] Group 2: Capital Inflows - The CSI Dividend ETF (515080) has seen substantial net subscriptions, with recent inflows of 129 million and 59 million, totaling nearly 340 million over ten trading days, indicating strong demand [1] - This trend reflects a strategic move by investors to capitalize on the perceived value in dividend assets amidst market fluctuations [1][3] Group 3: Fundamental Changes - The ongoing earnings season has seen 288 companies announce mid-term dividend plans, with a total proposed payout of approximately 164.7 billion, signaling improved profitability and cash flow [3] - The increasing focus on dividends aligns with current policy directions encouraging shareholder returns, enhancing the appeal of dividend stocks as cash flow assets [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The attractiveness of dividend assets is rising due to their defensive nature and long-term return potential, making them a critical component of investment strategies [5] - Investors are encouraged to consider dollar-cost averaging or phased investments in the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) and related dividend quality products for a balanced approach [9]

Core Insights - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of insurance funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.4% [1][2] - Approximately 4.74 trillion yuan has been allocated to stocks and securities investment funds, with direct stock investments reaching 3.06 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The increase in insurance capital allocation to equities is driven by policy guidance and a recovery in the equity market, with a focus on value stocks, high dividend yield stocks, and companies with strong earnings [1][4] Investment Trends - The direct investment amount in stocks has significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 1 trillion yuan [2][3] - By the end of Q2 2024, the balance of direct stock investments by property and life insurance companies was approximately 2.1 trillion yuan, with substantial growth in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 [2][3] - The proportion of stock investments in the overall asset allocation of insurance funds has risen, with stocks accounting for 8.8% of the total allocation by the end of Q2 2025, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][3] Policy Influence - Multiple policy documents have been issued to encourage long-term investments by insurance funds, including adjustments to the regulatory ratios for equity assets [4][5] - The total amount approved for long-term investment pilot projects by the financial regulatory authority has reached 222 billion yuan [4] Market Outlook - Insurance institutions are optimistic about stocks as the preferred investment asset for the second half of 2025, with expectations for stable economic growth and a favorable outlook for the A-share market [8][9] - Key sectors of interest include pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, and communication, with a focus on high dividend and innovative pharmaceutical investments [8][9] Asset Allocation Preferences - Insurance companies are expected to increase their allocation to equities due to the challenges in meeting duration matching needs with bonds and non-standard markets [5][6] - Analysts suggest that value stocks with stable return on equity (ROE) and cyclical industries at the bottom of their valuation cycles will be favored by insurance capital [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a record high performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 119.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.25 billion, up 72.48% [5][8] - The railway equipment business showed the fastest growth, with revenue of 59.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.21% [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 3.16 billion, which represents 43.57% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [8] - The profit margin and net profit for the first half of the year reached historical highs, with a net profit margin of 7.45% [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to be 265.21 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6% [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 13.82 billion, reflecting an 11.6% increase compared to the previous year [7] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.48 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 [7] Business Segment Performance - The railway equipment repair and modification business generated revenue of 22.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.81% [8] - The new industry segment reported revenue of 40.73 billion, up 35.59% year-on-year [8] - The modern service revenue reached 1.92 billion, with a growth of 16.39% [8] Market Context - National railway fixed asset investment for January to July 2025 was 433 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, indicating strong demand for railway services [8] - The company has exceeded the previous year's bidding volume for high-speed trains, with 278 sets of 350 km/h trains bid in the first eight months of 2025 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses, it predicts the price trends of major futures contracts on August 25, 2025, and also analyzes the market conditions on August 22, 2025, along with the expected trends for the month of August 2025 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast for August 25, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4500 and 4550 points, and support levels at 4394 and 4360 points [2][31]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and silver futures contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts, such as CU2510, AL2510, etc., are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, while fuel oil futures contract FU2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [6][7]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, while Y2601 is likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.2 Market Conditions on August 22, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 22, major stock index futures contracts, such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and showed strong upward momentum. The A - share market also performed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to 3825.76 points [19][26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 22, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened slightly lower, fluctuated weakly, and closed at 107.660 yuan, down 0.18% [46]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then declined, closing at 773.40 yuan/gram, down 0.36%. Silver futures contract AG2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 9192 yuan/kilogram, up 0.36% [52][57]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts showed different degrees of upward or downward fluctuations. For example, copper futures contract CU2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [63]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 493.6 yuan/barrel, up 1.42%. Fuel oil futures contract FU2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated upward, and closed at 2779 yuan/ton, up 2.47% [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 opened slightly higher and fluctuated downward, while Y2601 opened flat, fluctuated upward, and closed at 8458 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [138][141]. 3.3 Expected Trends for August 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF and IH being likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, while IC and IM are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts are expected to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [46][50]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures are likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, and silver futures are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [52][58]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts are expected to have a wide - range or strong - wide - range fluctuation [63][69]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Different agricultural product futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as M2601 being likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and Y2601 being likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.4 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025 [8]. - The central bank will conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on August 25, 2025, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan this month [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments jointly issued a document to regulate the rare - earth industry [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments solicited public opinions on the "Rules for Internet Platform Price Behaviors" [9].

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital is increasingly active in the market, with a strong preference for stocks as the primary investment asset for the second half of the year, reflecting a positive outlook on the A-share market [1][3][4]. Investment Preferences - According to the latest survey by the China Insurance Asset Management Association, stocks are the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half of the year, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [3][4]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of insurance capital utilization has reached 36.23 trillion yuan, with stock investment balance increasing by 47.57% compared to the end of 2024, surpassing 3 trillion yuan [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The increase in stock investment is driven by a combination of policy guidance, low interest rates, and product demand, indicating a more pronounced and long-term trend in insurance capital entering the market [2][4]. - The insurance industry is shifting towards a "stable income + appreciation" strategy, focusing on high-dividend, stable cash flow, and reasonably valued listed companies to fill the income gap created by declining bond yields [4][8]. Structural Changes - The current trend reflects a significant shift in asset allocation priorities among insurance institutions, with stocks gaining higher priority due to favorable market conditions and regulatory support [4][6]. - The "barbell" strategy of combining fixed income and equity investments is being adopted to mitigate duration mismatch risks while enhancing overall portfolio returns [5][8]. Future Outlook - The trend of increasing equity allocation is expected to continue and possibly strengthen over the next 2-3 years, driven by structural factors rather than short-term speculation [7][8]. - Insurance capital is becoming a major source of incremental funds in the stock market, with a focus on high-dividend sectors such as banking and public utilities [6][7].

Market Overview - Major indices opened higher with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.03%, and ChiNext Index up 1.41%, driven by sectors like computing chips and Huawei Ascend [1] Institutional Insights - China Galaxy Securities suggests that the market is likely to rotate around AI industry chain, anti-involution, and non-bank financial sectors, with technology growth sectors expected to maintain high prosperity due to the AI technology revolution [2] - Tianfeng Securities emphasizes the importance of AI industry trends and consumer breakthroughs for investment in the consumption sector, highlighting that current low valuations and favorable policies could lead to a recovery cycle [3] - Huatai Securities identifies AI chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and large finance as strategic allocation focuses, noting that the market is entering an upward trend supported by improved domestic and overseas liquidity [4] Industry Developments - CITIC Construction Investment reports rapid advancements in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, with Guoxuan High-Tech's "Jinshi Battery" entering trial production and securing significant orders for semi-solid state battery storage projects, marking a milestone in commercial application [5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2025 年 8 月） 8 月延续相对跑输，持续看好红利长期配置 推荐（维持） 价值 ❑ 风险提示：经济出现下滑、改革不及预期、并购整合等资本运作不及预期。 行业研究 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 33,240.61 | 3.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 28,359.48 | 3.58 | 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析 ...