好的，我将会根据您的要求对文章进行改写，同时保持原有的语义，并适度增加一些细节描述。下面是改写后的文章： --- 在您开始阅读本文之前，恳请您点击"关注"按钮，这样您可以方便地接收我们未来的文章更新，也能与我们进行更多的讨论与分享。您的支持将是我们持续 创作的动力源泉！ 与此同时，美联储的加息政策也没有丝毫停歇，持续的加息使得美国社会的通货膨胀率居高不下，生活成本不断上涨。失业率也呈现出急剧上升的趋势，许 多曾经辉煌一时的企业纷纷宣布倒闭或开始收缩规模。美国社会正笼罩在一种前所未有的萧条气氛中。 有金融专家分析指出，当前美国经济距离彻底崩溃的时刻并不遥远。如果三件重大事件发生，美国的衰退与崩盘将不可避免。这些因素可能将彻底改变全球 的经济格局，甚至导致新的世界秩序的诞生，原本由美国主导的全球生态位，必将被其他国家所瓜分。 那么，美国经济衰退的情况究竟有多严重呢？又是哪三件关键事件将推动美国走向崩盘的边缘？在这个过程中，中国又能获得怎样的利益呢？接下来，我们 将一一揭晓。 美国经济陷入衰退 2024年7月31日，央视网和其他媒体同时发布了令人震惊的消息：美国国债总额已经超过了35万亿美元。这一数据标志着美债面临 ...

智通财经6月26日电，摩根大通分析师表示，美国的贸易政策可能会减缓全球经济增长，并重新推高美 国通胀，今年下半年美国经济衰退的可能性为40%。 摩根大通：今年下半年美国经济衰退的可能性为40% ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年06月26日08时17分 | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询系列报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 山金期货原油日报 | | | | 更新时间：2025年06月26日08时17分 | | | | 原油 | | | | | | | | | | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 6月25日 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | | | 百分比 | | | Sc | 元/桶 | 508.60 | | -10.00 | -1.93% | -44.10 | -7.98% | | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 64.94 | | -0.07 | -0.11% | -9.93 | -13.26% | | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 67.61 | | -0.21 | -0.31% | -8.47 | -11.13% | | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：亚特兰大联储的GDP模型并未显示美国经济衰退的迹象。 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of National Security emphasizes that technological self-reliance is crucial for national security, highlighting the need for coordinated development and security to address risks in the tech sector [1] - The Summer Davos Forum is expected to enhance global economic stability and cooperation, with record attendance indicating a strong commitment to economic globalization and trade [2] - The total market size of bond ETFs has surpassed 352.41 billion, with two ETFs crossing the 50 billion mark, indicating a growing interest in bond investments [3] Group 2 - Huawei collaborates with Softcom and other partners to develop intelligent robots for manufacturing, focusing on humanoid robots for various applications [4] - A breakthrough in bidirectional high thermal conductivity graphite film has been achieved, which could provide critical materials for high-power device thermal management [5] - Guangzhou aims for over 90% of new cars to be L2 or higher level intelligent connected vehicles by 2027, indicating a strong push towards smart and connected automotive technology [6] Group 3 - Concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. have been raised, with predictions of a 25% drop in the S&P 500 index, reflecting investor anxiety [7] - The Chinese government is initiating a special rectification campaign in the government procurement sector to address various illegal activities, which may impact procurement practices [8] - China is actively participating in international scientific programs, including ITER and other major initiatives, showcasing its commitment to global scientific collaboration [9][10]

关税仍是重大威胁。当前实际关税税率徘徊在15%左右，Berezin认为这很危险，若特朗普不尽快巩固贸易协议，企业将价格上涨转嫁给消费者， 经济或面临重大痛苦。低于10%的关税对经济破坏性较小，但他对特朗普将关税降至这一水平不抱希望，甚至认为特朗普可能提高制药、半导体 和木材等行业关税。 一些策略师希望特朗普"大而美"法案通过减税提振经济，但无资金支持的减税可能推高债券收益率，抵消刺激措施。Berezin强调，即将到来的经 济衰退中"没有其他路可走"。（陈十一） 【环球网财经综合报道】随着美国总统特朗普设定的90天"关税暂缓期"临近，7月9日若各国未与美达成贸易协议，"对等关税"将生效，投资者担 忧情绪近日加剧。 市场研究公司BCA Research分析师Peter Berezin态度悲观，预计美国经济今年大概率衰退，美股将大幅下跌。他将衰退可能性从75%降至60%，但 称这仍是基本预期，在此预期下，标普500指数将跌至4500点左右，较上周五收盘价下跌25%。他表示，无需太多事件就会引发这样的下跌，目前 很难对股市或经济持乐观态度。 Berezin指出，美国经济早有疲软迹象。自2022年初以来，职位空缺呈下降 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 06 月 18 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13545 | 15 | 23,412 | -3475 | 151,537 | 3618 | | CF05合约 | 13540 | 5 | 1,897 | 1318 | 4,409 | 779 | | CF09合约 | 13540 | 15 | 124,617 | -21025 | 533,428 | -118 | | CY01合约 | 19810 | 19810 | 2 | 2 | 37 | -1 | | CY05合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 19840 | 65 | 7430 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a systematic and gradual weakening rather than a clear segmentation of inflation followed by stagnation, with increasing risks of non-farm payroll declines [1][8][37] - Recent economic data changes in the U.S. are not keeping pace with asset price fluctuations and macro narratives, indicating a divergence between hard and soft data [3][5] - The negative impacts of various non-tariff policies are becoming increasingly evident, contributing to the suppression of U.S. economic growth [5][8] Group 2 - The rate and potential magnitude of inflation are declining, with the U.S. CPI readings falling short of expectations for four consecutive months [9][11] - There is no significant inflation in tariff-sensitive sectors, and the demand-side weakness is likely to impose stronger price constraints [11][13] - Concerns about stagnation are rising as labor market data shows signs of weakening, despite stable non-farm employment figures [16][21] Group 3 - Service consumption is expected to be the first to reflect the weakening of the U.S. economy, with signs of declining consumer willingness [27][28] - The structure of disposable income growth is unhealthy, with a significant portion coming from government welfare rather than labor income [29][33] - The overall consumption willingness is decreasing, which will further suppress service consumption levels [37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is showing further signs of deterioration, with the New York Fed manufacturing index dropping from -9.2 to -16 in June, reflecting a lack of recovery [2] - The New York Fed's new orders index also fell significantly from 7 to -14.2, indicating a deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - The ongoing trade war initiated by President Trump aimed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but it has disrupted supply chains, exacerbating the decline in manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing widespread turmoil, with increased uncertainty overshadowing economic prospects [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to focus on monetary policy direction, with expectations that the Fed may maintain current interest rates due to Chairman Powell's cautious stance on easing [2] - There is a belief that the Fed should lower interest rates promptly given the economic challenges, but various factors are causing delays in such actions, potentially increasing downward pressure on the economy [2] Group 3 - The potential for "black swan" events could lead to a crisis for the U.S. economy, further undermining the dollar and American hegemony [3]

Economic Overview - Recent economic data in the U.S. shows marginal changes that do not match the volatility in asset prices and macro narratives, indicating a potential economic slowdown[3] - Tariff inflation has not materialized as expected, and the divergence between hard and soft data is beginning to correct, but this does not imply a weakening economy[3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The probability of tariff inflation being lower than expected is increasing, with oil prices becoming a highly volatile variable affecting this outlook[3] - The U.S. effective tariff rate has significantly increased, but the transmission mechanism to the real economy remains unclear[12] Employment and Consumption Trends - The baseline scenario suggests a systematic weakening of the U.S. economy rather than a clear fracture in any specific sector, with service consumption and employment showing signs of caution[4] - Non-farm payroll risks are increasing, with potential monthly growth dropping to around 50,000 or even negative levels[4] Risks and Uncertainties - Increased uncertainty in the Middle East could significantly raise oil prices, leading to higher inflation in the U.S.[5] - Trump's domestic policies face greater resistance, which may lead to increased fiscal stimulus and unexpected monetary easing from the Federal Reserve[5] Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of decoupling, with rising unemployment rates despite stable non-farm payroll data, indicating a potential shift in labor supply dynamics[27] - Permanent unemployment numbers are approaching 2 million, reflecting a concerning upward trend in the labor market[35] Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment is declining, as evidenced by a significant drop in auto sales and rising savings rates, indicating a cautious approach to spending[44] - The contribution of government social benefits to disposable income growth is concerning, as it suggests increased reliance on social safety nets rather than labor income[46]