Core Viewpoint - The recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference has shifted market sentiment, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar and a corresponding rise in gold prices, indicating a potential change in monetary policy direction [4][9][10]. Market Performance - On Friday, the international spot gold price opened at $3338.40, reaching a high of $3378.52 and a low of $3321.19, closing at $3371.69, an increase of $33.36 or 1.00% [1]. - The US dollar index opened at 98.63, peaked at 98.83, dipped to 97.54, and closed at 97.72, down 0.95% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6900.60, peaked at 7035.63, dipped to 6841.03, and closed at 6991.27, up 1.31% [4]. Federal Reserve Insights - Powell's speech indicated a potential adjustment in the Fed's policy stance, suggesting that the door for a rate cut in September is now open, contrasting with previous expectations of no cuts [9][10]. - The labor market is showing signs of significant slowdown, which raises the risk of job losses, prompting considerations for economic stimulus [9][10]. - Powell noted that inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, but he emphasized that the Fed would not allow temporary price increases to evolve into a persistent inflation problem [10]. Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a mid-term bearish trend, with recent attempts to break through key moving averages failing, indicating potential further declines [12]. - The latest net positioning in the dollar futures market shows a net short position of $46.7382 billion, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bearishness on the dollar [14]. - Gold prices are influenced by macro technical patterns, with significant resistance and support levels identified for future movements [16][19]. Fund Flows and Holdings - The latest data shows that the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has a holding of 956.77 tons, valued at $1.031 billion, down from 965.37 tons the previous week [25]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holding of 15,288.82 tons, valued at $188.86 million, an increase from 15,071.31 tons [25].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium was well-received, providing clarity on interest rate expectations [1][2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in managing inflation, which is at its highest levels in 40 years, while avoiding a severe recession [3][10] - Recent economic data has shown mixed signals, with labor market data weakening and inflation indicators fluctuating, complicating the Fed's decision-making [6][8] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following Powell's speech, the market significantly increased the probability of a rate cut in September to 91%, up from 75% the previous day [12] - The current federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, and a potential rate cut could support stock prices and lower borrowing costs, particularly in the housing market [13] - Despite the bullish sentiment, caution is advised as the market is near all-time highs and future economic data could alter the outlook on rate cuts [14][15] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Powell indicated that inflation risks are tilted to the upside due to tariffs, which may have a short-lived impact on consumer prices [10][11] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, while core inflation rose by 3.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [15] - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on inflation remains a concern for the Fed, as previous assumptions about transitory inflation have proven incorrect [15]

Core Viewpoint - Toll Brothers is considered a strong buy-and-hold stock due to its operational quality, cash flow, capital return, and long-term supply-demand outlook, but faces risks in 2025 due to macroeconomic conditions impacting the housing market [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a strong FQ3 with robust profitability and ample capital returns, but guidance for deliveries fell short, indicating potential changes in Q4 and early Q1 [2][7] - The capital return is deemed safe in 2025, with cash flow sufficient to cover dividend payments while maintaining financial health, despite increased liabilities [9] - The annual dividend is $1.00, with a dividend yield of 0.76% and a payout ratio of 7.42% [9] Group 2: Market Conditions - The market reaction suggests it may be peaking, with stock price declining nearly 3.0% in pre-opening trading, indicating resistance at critical levels around the low-$130s [2] - Leading indicators show weakness, including a 4% decline in signed contracts, a 10% decline in backlog, and a 19% contraction in backlog value [8] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to make aggressive interest rate cuts to spur housing demand, with only an 82% chance for a 25-basis point cut at the September meeting [5][7] Group 3: Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating with a 65% bullish bias, but price target uptrend has stalled, suggesting potential downward pressure on stock action [11] - Stock repurchases reduced the count by an average of 4.6% for the quarter, although the pace may slow in the future [10] - Toll Brothers was not included in a list of top stocks recommended by leading analysts, indicating a preference for other investment opportunities [12]

Group 1 - The price of physical gold from King Tai Fu is quoted at 1001 CNY per gram on August 21, 2025, a decrease of 4 CNY per gram compared to the previous trading day [1][2] - Platinum price is quoted at 503 CNY per gram on the same day, an increase of 2 CNY per gram compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained stable interest rates since December, with an 85% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME's FedWatch tool [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 22, 2025, where investors will focus on his stance regarding labor market support measures versus inflation risks [3]

Group 1 - The central bank of China adjusted the RMB to USD exchange rate to 7.1287, an increase of 97 points [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes indicate a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% [4] - Economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year, with inflation remaining slightly elevated and high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [4] Group 3 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 81.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 18.1% [5] - In October, the probability of maintaining the rate is 8%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 46.4% and a 50 basis point cut at 45.5% [5]

Group 1 - Trump is considering firing a Federal Reserve official, Lisa Cook, due to allegations of mortgage fraud related to her housing applications [2][3] - Allegations state that Cook submitted fraudulent information on two mortgage applications for properties in Michigan and Georgia, claiming both as her primary residence [3][4] - The accusations have led to a weakening of the dollar, a narrowing of U.S. Treasury yields, and an increase in gold prices [5] Group 2 - The incident marks an escalation in the White House's attacks on the Federal Reserve, with FHFA Director Bill Pulte becoming a prominent critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell [8] - Cook, nominated by Biden in 2022, has aligned her voting stance with Powell and the majority of the FOMC during her tenure [8] - Recent criticisms from Trump and his appointees come as the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Fed in the upcoming meetings [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under short-term pressure due to a strong US dollar and market anticipation of the Federal Reserve's annual meeting [2][4] - As of August 20, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 768.70 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 3.98 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 772.68 yuan per gram [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 13.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 86.1% [1] Group 2 - International gold price closed at 3315.03 USD per ounce, down 0.52%, with domestic SMM spot prices following the downward trend [3] - International silver price closed at 37.36 USD per ounce, down 1.68%, with a sluggish spot market transaction [5] - The silver market is expected to remain weak in the short term, influenced by declining industrial prices and a strong dollar [4][6]

8月15日，据CME《美联储观察》显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为7.9%，降息25个基点的概率 为92.1%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为3.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为41.7%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为55.2%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flows. Key events include Malaysia's increase in the September export tax on crude palm oil, expected low sunflower seed production in Ukraine, and potential impacts of weather on US crops. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude oil, US soybeans, and others, are presented. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar are also provided. [1] Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included. [2] Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and mostly median precipitation from August 18th to 22nd. A slow - moving front in the US Midwest will bring rain and temperature changes, which may benefit some crops but also cause flooding in some areas. [5][8] International Supply - related News - Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil for September. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for a specific period are predicted. Argentina's soybean sales data is released. Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to decline. The Baltic Dry Index has risen. [9][10][11][12] Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 13th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The national oil mill operating rate declined. Price changes of various agricultural products and livestock products are reported. [14][15][16] Macro News International News - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October are high. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut rates. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The IEA has lowered global oil demand growth forecasts. UAE's refined oil inventory has decreased. [18][19] Domestic News - The US dollar/renminbi exchange rate has decreased (renminbi appreciation). The central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's July financial statistics show the growth of M2, M1, and M0. [20] Capital Flows - On August 13th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.391 billion yuan, with 5.129 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural and chemical futures and outflows in black - series futures) and 22.262 billion yuan in stock index futures. [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively seeking a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate due to his willingness to base policy on forecasts rather than existing data and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system [1][4] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Christopher Waller is currently the most prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump's team to discuss the role [1] - Other candidates include former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, both of whom are also in contention for the position [1][2] - Trump has narrowed the candidate list to three individuals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2] Group 2: Waller's Background and Experience - Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve in 2020 and previously served as the research director and executive vice president of the St. Louis Fed [4] - He has engaged in public debates with influential economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and has successfully argued that inflation could be reduced without significantly increasing unemployment [4] - Waller has emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the proper functioning of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3: Recent Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Waller and fellow board member Michelle Bowman voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [3] - A recent employment report indicated a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past three months, supporting Waller and Bowman's dissenting opinions [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has shown a divide in opinions, with some members believing the labor market remains strong and advocating for patience in adjusting interest rates [3]