日本央行副行长内田真一：目前从数据来看，很难判断贸易谈判的结果，以及国内外经济和市场将朝哪 个方向发展。 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to different trends in various metals [1][3] - Gold and silver are likely to rise due to trade uncertainties and the potential for Fed rate cuts [1][2][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long - term due to global copper mine shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc supply is abundant, limiting its upside potential in the short - term, with a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook [1][8][9] - Aluminum and nickel prices may experience short - term rebounds, but are affected by factors such as inventory and seasonal demand [1][10][11][12][13] - Lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to supply - side disruptions [1][14][15] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: The US trade negotiations with Brazil and the EU are not going smoothly, and the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st has increased the safe - haven sentiment for gold and silver [2] - **基本逻辑**: Trump pressures the Fed to cut interest rates, the US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and there are uncertainties in the global economic and political situation. The Fed rate cuts may exceed expectations, and central banks continue to buy gold, supporting the long - term upward trend of gold [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper has rebounded strongly and is consolidating around the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **产业逻辑**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, electrolytic copper production has increased, domestic social inventory has decreased seasonally, downstream开工率 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors has maintained resilience [6] - **策略推荐**: With Trump's pressure on the Fed and positive short - term macro - sentiment, it is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, copper is still expected to rise. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [79000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper resistance [8] - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, new smelting capacity is being released, and the processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising. The demand side is affected by the high - temperature season and the consumption off - season, and downstream enterprises are hesitant to buy at high prices [8] - **策略推荐**: Due to cost support, low inventory, and macro - sentiment stimulation, zinc has rebounded. It is recommended to hold existing long positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22800, 23200], and for London zinc is [2750, 2950] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina also shows a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased, the cost has risen, the inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream processing industry's开工率 has decreased in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, and the supply of spot alumina is relatively tight in the short - term [11] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20300 - 21200], and alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices continue to rebound, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, there are uncertainties in the overseas environment, the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation has improved slightly. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and the inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 has increased in position and reached a new high [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are more willing to sell, and the basis has weakened. The total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand growth in the new energy vehicle market has slowed down. However, there are many supply - side disruptions, and the futures market has priced in the improvement of the supply - demand situation in advance [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a range of [71800 - 74000] [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Boosted by the macro - environment, be vigilant about sentiment reversal [2][6] - Soybean oil: Follows the oil and fat sector, relatively weak among varieties [2][6] - Soybean meal: Market sentiment is strong, the market fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Soybean: Technically, it fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Corn: Runs in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - Sugar: Conducts narrow - range consolidation [2][21] - Cotton: Pay attention to market sentiment changes [2][26] - Eggs: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][33] - Pigs: Macro sentiment is strong, waiting for end - of - month confirmation [2][35] - Peanuts: Run in a fluctuating manner [2][39] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,926 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,954 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,076 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease, and night - session closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: UOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 5 - 9%. MPOC expected next month's crude palm oil price to be between 4,100 - 4,300 Malaysian ringgit. SGS estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased by 35.99% compared to the previous month [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0, soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4232 yuan/ton with a 1.34% increase, and night - session closing price was 4241 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3086 yuan/ton with a 0.88% increase, and night - session closing price was 3092 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 22, CBOT soybeans fell due to good Midwest weather and focus on trade negotiations [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, soybean trend intensity is +1 (only for the daily - session main - contract futures price on the report day) [16]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,322 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,303 yuan/ton with a 0.82% decrease [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices were stable, container collection port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions had different changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [20]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.26 cents/pound with a 0.1 decrease. The mainstream spot price was 6040 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan approved importing 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern region's crushing progress was slow, but MIX increased significantly year - on - year [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 14,225 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and night - session closing price was 14235 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the cotton yarn market's demand was insufficient. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2508's closing price was 3,574 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.17% increase [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [33]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 14430 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. The futures price of live pigs 2509 was 14380 yuan/ton with a 15 - yuan increase [35]. - **Market Logic**: Currently in the consumption off - season, the spot price has dropped rapidly. Wait for end - of - month confirmation. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is 0 [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: PK510's closing price was 8,140 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [39]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In various regions such as Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, raw material acquisitions are basically over, and inventory trading is the main activity, with prices generally stable [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [41].

Group 1 - South Korea will exclude rice and beef markets from trade negotiations with the United States [1]

金十数据7月23日讯，在宣布与日本达成贸易协议后，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟代表将于周三与美国 进行贸易谈判。特朗普表示，"明天轮到欧洲要来了，次日还有其他一些国家要来。" 特朗普：将于周三与欧盟进行贸易谈判 ...

最近这段时间，关于石油的话题，成为了新的焦点。为了向俄罗斯总统普京施压，美国总统特朗普改变打法，威胁如果在50天内无法达成俄乌和平协议，将 对俄罗斯征收100%关税，并对部分国家实施所谓"二级制裁"。 由于美俄贸易几乎中断，特朗普主要想打好"二级制裁"这张牌，意图惩罚俄罗斯石油买家，对这些国家的进口商品征收高达100%的关税。而美方也直接进 行了点名，称中国、印度和巴西是俄罗斯石油的主要买家，要求三国停止购买。 美国威胁惩罚购买俄罗斯石油的国家 除了不许购买俄罗斯石油，美方对中国发出了新的威胁，不能再购买伊朗石油。美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时透露，特朗普政府与中国的谈判进展顺 利，但是并不急于与中国达成贸易协议，因为他们更关心的是贸易协定的质量，而不是达成时间。 紧接着，贝森特说出了真实意图，特朗普政府希望将中俄关系和中伊关系加入到谈判中，试图通过谈判阻止中国购买俄罗斯和伊朗石油。贝森特称，中国是 受制裁的伊朗石油和俄罗斯石油的大买家，所以可以开始讨论这个问题。 贝森特放话不许中国购买伊朗石油 美方施压不许购买俄罗斯石油一事，几乎不可能成功，且不说中国，就连非常依赖美国市场的印度，都已经对美国的做法表达了不 ...

美国财长贝森特：与中国的贸易谈判已经进入新阶段。与中国的会谈将于下周一周二在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩举行。 ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices have seen a significant increase after a period of stability, with Chow Sang Sang's gold price rising by 9 CNY per gram to 1021 CNY per gram, marking the highest price among major gold retailers [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold retailers has expanded to 52 CNY per gram, with Shanghai China Gold maintaining the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram [1] - Other notable price changes include Lao Miao at 1014 CNY (+10), Liufu at 1015 CNY (+7), and Lao Feng Xiang at 1016 CNY (+8) [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has increased by 6.3 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among brands [2] - The current recycling prices are as follows: 771.50 CNY for general gold, 776.90 CNY for Cai Bai, 769.30 CNY for Chow Sang Sang, 775.60 CNY for Chow Tai Fook, and 784.50 CNY for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - The spot gold price has continued to rise, breaking the 3400 USD mark, closing at 3396.71 USD per ounce, with a 1.41% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3384.71 USD per ounce, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.35% [4] - Market uncertainty due to the approaching August 1 trade negotiation deadline has supported gold prices, while a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields has created a favorable environment for gold investors [4] - The geopolitical situation has slightly eased with the announcement of new Ukraine-Russia negotiations scheduled for July 23, which may influence market sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen to a one-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, with investors closely monitoring trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by favorable technical factors and a general weakness in the dollar [1] - The potential for the U.S. and its trade partners to fail to reach an agreement may create uncertainty, prompting market participants to engage in hedging activities [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA, highlights that the combination of a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields enhances the attractiveness of gold as an investment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, with the approaching August 1st tariff deadline, there is intense tariff - related game - playing among countries. The US - EU trade negotiation is bleak, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has increased market uncertainty. In the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold, copper, etc. [2] - Domestically, the expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. [2] - For different commodities, most are expected to show a certain degree of strength in the short - term, but are also affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. [3][6][7][8][10][11][13][15][17][19][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The August 1st tariff deadline is approaching. The US emphasizes "quality first", and many countries are in intense tariff - related games. The US - EU trade negotiation is on the verge of collapse, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has not subsided, increasing political pressure on the Fed. During the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold and copper. [2] - Domestic: The expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. The risk preference of the stock and commodity markets continues to increase, and the Treasury bond yield rises. [2] 3.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.55% to $3410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.02% to $39.24 per ounce. The uncertainty of the US reaching a trade agreement before August 1st, the weakening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and the brewing of EU counter - measures against US tariffs have all boosted precious metal prices. The market's speculation about the possible replacement of Fed Chairman Powell and the reshaping of the Fed has also increased market tension. It is expected that precious metal prices will fluctuate strongly in the near future. [3][4] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rebound, and LME copper rose strongly above $9800. The spot market of electrolytic copper had good transactions, and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Domestically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce an action plan to support key industrial sectors, which will significantly boost metal demand. Abroad, SolGold is accelerating the development of its copper - gold project in Ecuador. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short - term, affected by factors such as global trade situations and supply - demand relationships. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose. The overseas market is cautious before the US tariff negotiation deadline, and the domestic market interprets the news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as a new round of supply - side reform, which has led to a significant increase in Shanghai aluminum prices. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has slightly increased, and the spot transaction maintains a high premium. It is expected that aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's requirements for structural adjustment and elimination of backward production capacity in ten major industries have increased the market's expectation of supply - side interference, driving up the alumina futures price. It is expected that alumina will continue to run strongly in the short - term. [11] 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The prospect of the US - EU trade agreement is bleak, the domestic policy of stabilizing growth is expected to ferment, and the LME still has a risk of short - squeezing. The domestic consumption off - season has certain resilience, and the pattern of weak supply and demand has not been effectively reflected in inventory. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [12][13] 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. After the current - month delivery, the inventory continued to increase, and the downstream battery consumption has not improved significantly, which has dragged down the lead price. However, the cost - side support is effective, and the policy of stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metal industry has a positive impact on the lead price. In the short - term, the lead price will stabilize and fluctuate. [14][15] 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly. The positive market atmosphere boosts the tin price. Fundamentally, the resumption of work in some smelters has slightly increased the operating rate of refined tin, but overall it remains at a low level. The downstream is in the consumption off - season, and the inventory has slightly increased. Although the tin price runs strongly following the non - ferrous metal sector in the short - term, the expected improvement in the raw material end may limit its upward space. [16][17] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The supply - side has shrunk significantly, and the new policy has boosted the spot market. The Xinjiang region's operating rate has dropped below 50%, and the operating rate in the Sichuan - Yunnan region has limited recovery during the wet season. The demand side is affected by factors such as cost and market acceptance. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [18][19] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated, and the spot price rose slightly. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to promote the stable growth of ten major industries has boosted the lithium price. Although the fundamental situation of weak supply and demand has not been alleviated, the lithium price is currently dominated by policies. However, the special cost - ladder structure of lithium carbonate may limit the intensity of policy support, and the increase in lithium price may be less than that of other related varieties. [20] 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated strongly. The domestic policy of promoting the stable growth of the non - ferrous metal industry has boosted the nickel price. Although the nickel - iron spot market is still cold, the price of pure nickel has risen under policy drive, and the market for nickel sulfate has recovered. It is expected that the nickel price will strengthen under policy drive in the short - term. [22][23] 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated strongly. Geopolitical factors, such as the possible instability of the Iran - Israel cease - fire agreement, may have an impact on oil prices. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force in the oil market. Potential geopolitical risks may support oil prices, but the upward space is limited, and the oil market will fluctuate. [24][25] 3.13 Steel Products (Screw - Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated strongly. At the steel enterprise forum, steel enterprises reached a consensus on strengthening self - discipline and controlling production. The spot market has an increase in both volume and price, and the trade sentiment is good. The macro - level large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The supply - side contraction offsets the unfavorable situation of off - season demand. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation. [26] 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures showed a strong trend. The arrival of iron ore at ports has decreased, and the shipment has remained stable. The macro - level anti - involution policy improves the fundamental expectation, and the large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The profitability of steel mills has recovered, and the demand for iron ore has increased. The supply pressure has been relieved. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [27] 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the prices of bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The US soybean good - rate has decreased, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is changeable. The domestic bean meal inventory continues to increase. The progress of US trade negotiations is slow, and the external market fluctuates and closes down. It is expected that the domestic bean meal will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term. [28][29] 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil futures price fell. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first and middle of July, but the export demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic palm oil inventory continued to increase. The increase in profit - taking behavior of long - position funds has led to a decline in the domestic market after a rise. In the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly. [30][31]