Core Viewpoint - The relationship between Canada and the United States has fundamentally changed, with Canada now viewing its dependency on the U.S. as a risk rather than an opportunity [1][3]. Group 1: Canada-U.S. Relations - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledges that the U.S. is no longer the partner it once was, indicating a shift in priorities [1]. - Carney's approach to the U.S. has changed significantly from his campaign rhetoric, as he now emphasizes the need for Canada to stabilize its bilateral relationship with the U.S. [3][4]. - The cancellation of Canada's digital services tax, which was intended to impact U.S. tech giants, was influenced by U.S. pressure, showcasing the U.S.'s significant influence over Canadian policy [3][5]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Carney stated that Canada must create a more integrated domestic economy and diversify its external relations to avoid being in a passive position regarding U.S. influence [4]. - During discussions about the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Canada aims to highlight the importance of economic integration in key sectors like steel and automobiles for U.S. competitiveness [4][5]. - Despite a positive atmosphere during a recent meeting between Carney and Trump, no agreement on tariffs was reached, indicating ongoing challenges in trade negotiations [6][8]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Trump expressed a desire to replace Canadian products in the U.S. market with American-made goods, suggesting a tough stance on trade negotiations [6]. - The Canadian government is under pressure to respond to U.S. demands, with Ontario's Premier suggesting retaliatory tariffs if an agreement is not reached soon [8].

中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方围绕落实今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识，就双边经贸关系中的重要问题进行了坦诚、深入、建设性的交流，同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商。（新华社）外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):CNBC：美国财长贝森特今天将与中国副总理何立峰通话，讨论贸易谈判。 ...

Core Insights - The strategic significance of rare earth elements is increasingly highlighted, with a notable focus on the ongoing competition between China and the United States in this sector [1][6] - China's recent export controls on rare earths are a strong policy response to U.S. pressures, indicating its determination in trade negotiations [1][9] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's proposal to extend the tariff truce in exchange for concessions from China reflects a desperate attempt to navigate the complex trade landscape [3][5] Group 1: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements are essential for modern technology, used in products ranging from smartphones to electric vehicles and defense weapons [1] - China holds a dominant position as the largest producer of rare earths, which has become a critical point of leverage in U.S.-China trade relations [1][6] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The U.S. is attempting to utilize the upcoming expiration of a 24% tariff suspension as leverage, but its lack of proactive engagement raises questions about its strategy [3] - China's consistent stance of "open to talks, but ready to fight" has bolstered international confidence in its position [3][5] Group 3: China's Response and Strategy - China has issued multiple announcements to reinforce its control over rare earths, signaling its commitment to defending its interests [5][9] - The measures include special port fees for U.S. vessels and investigations into companies like Qualcomm, demonstrating China's resolve [5] Group 4: Broader Implications - The ongoing rare earth competition is a microcosm of the larger U.S.-China rivalry, encompassing technology leadership, market share, and strategic resource control [6][9] - The outcome of this conflict will significantly impact the global economic landscape and the stability of international relations [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market downturn is characterized by widespread declines, with over 4,800 stocks falling, indicating a significant impact across the board [2] Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent drop in the market is attributed to high profit-taking in the technology sector and ongoing uncertainties in trade negotiations, leading to a lack of investor confidence [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown weakness around the 3,900-point level, with a lack of buying interest in high-positioned technology stocks, suggesting a potential downward trend [4][5] Group 2: Economic Factors - U.S. Treasury Secretary's controversial remarks and aggressive trade policies have heightened fears in global markets, particularly concerning rare earth policies that have prompted collective panic in Europe and Japan [4] - The upcoming key events, including domestic meetings and international summits, are expected to influence market direction, with potential trade negotiation outcomes being critical [4][5] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio, incorporating both defensive and technology stocks, while avoiding high-priced stocks until a clearer market bottom is established [3][5] - The expectation is for the Shanghai Composite Index to fluctuate between 3,900 and 3,800 points until further news on trade negotiations and monetary policy is released [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Macquarie suggests that unless trade negotiations or geopolitical relations deteriorate, emerging market inflows and improved liquidity in H-shares will provide support for the A-share market in the next six months [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to receive support due to a 20% year-on-year increase in industrial profits in August, driven by anti-involution policies in upstream industries [1] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to focus on enhancing social welfare, potentially leading to structural inflows into the stock market [1] - Reforms in household savings, insurance, and private pensions could add approximately 43 trillion RMB in potential investments to the stock market over the next decade, equivalent to 41% of the total market capitalization of A-shares in Q3 this year [1] Group 2: Investment Preferences - The company currently prefers H-shares over A-shares due to quality rotation and IPOs attracting more investor attention to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Despite this preference, the company remains optimistic about A-share performance in the medium term, as national policy reforms are expected to drive capital inflows [1] Group 3: Sector Preferences - The company favors sectors such as internet and consumer services while avoiding the energy sector and low-beta, high-dividend stocks [1] - Selected high-beta, high-quality stocks that are currently undervalued include BYD Company Limited (01211), Wuliangye Yibin Co., Ltd. (000858.SZ), Anta Sports Products Limited (02020), and Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (06862) [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, affected by rainfall in some areas of North China and Shandong, terminal demand is suppressed, cost - end support is limited, and the market is waiting and seeing. Traders in these two regions lowered prices, pushing down the average market price. In the East China Zhenjiang area, low - priced resources impact sales. The sales of the main refineries in the South China market are relatively stable, and the asphalt price remains unchanged. In the future, competition among asphalt brands in the northern market will intensify, and prices may be weak in the short - term due to low demand. In the South China market, demand may gradually release with better weather, supporting local prices. The main refineries in East China mainly ship by sea, and prices are expected to remain stable [5] 3. Key Information Summaries 3.1 Asphalt Price Data - **Spot prices**: In different regions, the current spot prices in East China are 3500 - 3720, in Northeast China not mentioned, in North China 3450, in South China 3400, in Northwest China 3980, and in Shandong 3460. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are 0 (- 30) in East China, (- 20) in North China, (- 10) in South China, 0 in Northwest China, and (- 10) in Shandong [1] - **Futures prices**: For asphalt futures contracts such as BU2510, BU2511, BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602, the current values are 3470, 3154, 3250, 3184, and 3164 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are 0.00%, - 0.41%, - 1.22%, - 0.84%, and - 0.35% respectively [1] 3.2 International News - On October 13, Trump first said he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports to the US, but then said the threat might not be implemented, and the US vice - president signaled willingness to negotiate. Market selling is restricted by the negotiation intention, and the short - term outlook depends on the negotiation results [1] - China's crude oil imports in September increased by 3.9% year - on - year to 1125 barrels per day, and refinery operating rates remained at a high level, supporting demand [2] - Trump said he might provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved. Medvedev warned that supplying these missiles "might harm everyone, especially Trump" [2] - On October 13, Hamas released the first batch of seven Israeli hostages, starting a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza conflict, which Trump helped to promote [2] - OPEC's daily crude oil production in September was 2844 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 52.4 million barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 24.8 million barrels. OPEC +'s daily production was 4305 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 63 million barrels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline on "Black Friday," with all three major indices falling sharply, but a subsequent rebound in after-hours trading suggests a more rational analysis of future market directions by Wall Street [1] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.9% - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.71% - The Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted by 3.56%, marking the largest single-day decline since April [1] Market Reactions - After the initial shock, Wall Street began to reassess the situation, interpreting the recent actions as a negotiation tactic by Trump rather than a genuine threat [1] - The White House confirmed that negotiations between the U.S. and China were not canceled, which contributed to the market's recovery [1] Historical Context - Previous instances indicate that Trump's threats, such as the 100% tariff, are often used as leverage and tend to be unsustainable over time [1] - The last occurrence of a 100% tariff lasted about a month before it was retracted, suggesting a pattern in Trump's negotiation style [1] Economic Indicators - The stability of U.S. Treasury yields and the stock market is closely tied to the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China, indicating that both parties' actions are critical for market confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened lower, with significant declines in major indices, particularly the Nasdaq, which fell by 1.83%, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors amid ongoing economic uncertainties [1] Market Performance - Major technology stocks experienced substantial declines, with Intel (INTC.US) dropping over 6%, Nvidia (NVDA.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), and Oracle (ORCL.US) each falling more than 4%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) and TSMC (TSM.US) decreased by over 3% [1] Economic Concerns - Despite signals of openness in trade negotiations between China and the U.S., market observers from institutions like Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI, and JPMorgan remain cautious, warning that the risks of short-term volatility have not dissipated [1] - High valuations combined with the risk of a U.S. government shutdown and trade uncertainties could exacerbate economic losses [1] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 13 days, causing chaos among federal public affairs and government employees, which has negatively impacted financial markets [1] - Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the government shutdown is already affecting the economy, with ongoing stalemates between Republicans and Democrats over funding plans [1] - The shutdown has led to significant disruptions, including illness among air traffic controllers causing airport delays and the closure of landmark attractions affecting the tourism industry [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil prices experienced a rebound on October 13, with WTI crude oil closing at $59.49 per barrel, up 1.00%, and Brent crude at $63.32 per barrel, up 0.94% [1] - The recent price drop was attributed to the volatility in US-China trade relations, but the willingness to negotiate has limited further market sell-offs [1][3] - The oil market is currently undergoing a restructuring of soft power dynamics, influenced by geopolitical events and trade negotiations [3][4] Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser projected strong global oil demand growth driven by developing countries, with an expected increase of 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2025 and 2026 [2] - Saudi Aramco's production capacity stands at 12 million barrels per day, with a low extraction cost of $2 per barrel, indicating a strong position in the market [2] - The psychological support for WTI oil prices is seen at the $60 per barrel mark, influenced by stable demand from China [3][4] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages signify a shift from "risk discount" to "restorative valuation" in Middle Eastern oil supply dynamics [4] - The role of the US as a mediator in the Gaza conflict reflects its energy diplomacy and soft power, potentially impacting oil transportation routes [4] - The current oil price fluctuations are viewed as a rebalancing of the "military-energy-currency" soft power framework [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in international oil prices is seen as a correction of overly pessimistic sentiment rather than a trend reversal, with ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks continuing to impact market stability [1][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil has risen above $63 per barrel, while WTI crude is stabilizing around $60, following significant declines due to renewed trade tensions [1]. - Last Friday, both Brent and WTI recorded their largest single-day drops since August, with Brent falling by 3.8% and WTI dropping below the $60 mark [1]. Group 2: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The U.S. has indicated a willingness to negotiate with Asian countries after announcing 100% tariffs and export restrictions, which has provided temporary relief to oil prices [1][3]. - Asian countries have responded positively to dialogue but remain firm against threats, which may help alleviate short-term trade concerns and support risk assets [3]. Group 3: Market Uncertainties - Despite the positive signals, investor confidence remains low due to the lack of concrete actions and negotiation arrangements [3]. - The introduction of port surcharges on U.S. vessels by Asian countries has led to the cancellation of some crude oil transport plans, increasing uncertainty in the energy market [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - WTI crude has found temporary support around $59.00 after a rapid decline, but it has not yet broken through the critical resistance level of $60.00 [3]. - If prices do not stabilize above $60, the rebound may not be sustainable, with support levels identified between $59.30 and $58.50 [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall technical outlook remains weak, and short-term operations should be approached with caution, especially if there are no substantial developments in U.S.-Asia trade negotiations [6].