今天注定是不平凡的一天，美联储利率决议出炉，鲍威尔发表讲话，美股三大指数收涨，道指更是涨超 1%。看似风平浪静，实则暗流涌动。 | 道琼斯指数 48057.75 | | | | 焙斯达克综合指数 | | | | 标雷500指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 23654.16 | | | | 6886.68 | | | | | | +497.46 +7.05% | | | | +77.67 +0.33 | | | | +46.17 +0.67 | | | | | | 领流榜 | 盘中 ▼ | | 更多 > | 领铁榜 | ■中 ▼ | | 更多 > | 热力图 行业 个殿 | | | | 更多> | | 11:12 1232 | 合球 | 海铁幅令 | 價新增 | 代码 | 名称 | 座疏幅合 | 图 情份 | | | | | | | BBG1 | 比斯利广播 | =312.10% | 16.690 | WOK | 沃德医疗 | 96 803 ...

12月11日，在近期市场调整背景下，FPG财盛国际表示，主要加密资产的走弱与最新的政策信号密切相 关。美联储如预期下调基准利率并启动短期国债购入计划，本应为风险资产提供支撑，但其后续政策路 径的模糊性，让市场情绪迅速由乐观转向谨慎。FPG财盛国际认为，投资者当前更关注未来数季的政策 节奏，而非单一的降息动作。 根据市场数据，BTC在消息公布后跌至9万美元下方，较亚洲早盘下滑约2.4%；Ether跌至约3190美元； 主流加密指数亦回落逾4%。多位市场参与者强调，美联储内部在通胀与就业之间的权衡出现分歧，两 名委员投票支持维持利率不变，而另有六名委员认为当前并不适合降息。另一方面，最新预测仅显示 2026年再进行一次降息，弱于此前两到三次的市场预期。FPG财盛国际认为，这类分歧放大了市场对未 来利率路径的不确定性，使投资者难以判断在未来数季内政策的宽松节奏。与此同时，加密行情也受股 市同步下行影响，BTC第三次尝试突破9.4万美元未果，隐含波动率持续回落，显示交易活动趋向谨 慎。 12月11日，在近期市场调整背景下，FPG财盛国际表示，主要加密资产的走弱与最新的政策信号密切相 关。美联储如预期下调基准利率并启动 ...

【基本面解析】 美联储此次降息尘埃落定！12月11日，美联储正式宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，实现 连续第三次降息，今年累计降幅达75个基点，为市场送上"预期之中的惊喜"。然而，投票结果却分歧明 显，9票支持、3票反对，创下自2019年以来反对票数最多的纪录。新任理事米兰主张更大幅度的50基点 降息，而古尔斯比和施密德则认为应维持利率不变，这场"有人嫌少，有人嫌多"的争论，展现了美联储 内部的多元观点。 政策声明中，美联储删除了"失业率较低"的表述，反映了当前就业增长放缓、失业率上升的现实。关于 未来降息路径，点阵图显示2026年预计再降25个基点，与此前预测相符。此外，美联储宣布将从12月12 日起，在30天内购买400亿美元国库券，并可能在未来几个月保持高位购买，以确保市场流动性充足。 这一系列操作旨在稳定利率，而非启动新的量化宽松。 摘要北京时间周四(12月11日)欧洲时段，美元指数止跌回升，交投于98.674附近，金价目前交投于 4212.02美元/盎司，跌幅0.36%，最高触及4247.50美元/盎司，最低触及4203.73美元/盎司。凌晨3点美联 储利率决议后，金价深蹲41 ...

Core Viewpoint - The New York Fed is set to release its first "Reserve Management Purchase" (RMP) detail on December 11, with bond purchases commencing the following day, signaling a liquidity influx despite assurances from Powell that this is not quantitative easing [3]. Group 1: RMP Overview - The current RMP is characterized as "preventive maintenance" rather than an emergency response, aimed at preparing for a seasonal surge in non-reserve liabilities expected in April, which could impact the $12 trillion repo market [3]. - The Fed plans to initially purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills over the next month, with the possibility of extending the duration to three years and adjusting monthly purchase amounts based on liability fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, markets have reacted positively, with U.S. Treasuries, equities, Bitcoin, gold, and oil all rising, while the dollar has weakened, indicating a liquidity feast [3]. - Bank of America estimates that the current "fill" gap from RMP will last approximately six months, with monthly purchases equating to 0.15% of GDP, lower than the 0.3% seen in 2019, but still expected to influence overnight financing rates [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical data shows that after the RMP was implemented in October 2019, the SOFR/FF spread increased from -21 basis points to -3 basis points within 20 trading days, suggesting a rapid market adjustment [4]. - Current market conditions resemble those of 2019, with leveraged funds positioning themselves in short-term Treasury futures and money market funds lowering repo quotes to secure bonds [4]. Group 4: Future Implications - The total reserves in banks remain ample, with ONRRP balances providing a $350 billion buffer, indicating that the current liquidity levels will not overwhelm the short end of the market immediately [5]. - Traders are betting that if monthly purchases rise to $60 billion, SOFR could drop below 4%, creating a significant gap with the 5.25% FF target, potentially leading to a liquidity surge [5].

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间2025年12月11日凌晨，美联储完成了年内第三次降息，将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。 美联储宣布降息后，美股短线拉升。截至收盘，道指涨超1%，标普500指数涨0.67%，纳指微涨0.33%。 美元指数应声下跌并跌破关键关口。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪认为，美联储此次降息的核心触发因素，是在就业市场出现明显放 缓迹象的背景下，进行一种风险管理式的政策调整。其目的是通过预防性的降息，防范劳动力市场疲软 进一步传导至消费和经济增长，避免经济失速。尽管通胀仍高于2%的长期目标，但其温和回落的趋势 为美联储提供了在"充分就业"与"物价稳定"两大法定职责之间寻求平衡的操作空间。这次降息可被视为 对经济变化的前置响应。 此外，多位分析师将此次会议结果称为"恰到好处"的结果，为亚洲央行货币政策提供了更大操作空间。 脆弱的共识："鹰派降息"释放出鸽派信号 本次会议的核心特征，被市场分析师精准地概括为"鹰派降息"。所谓"鹰派"，并非指向利率行动本身， 而是指向未来路径的谨慎指引。尽管实施了降息，但美联储通过声明措辞和季度经济预测，明确传递出 放缓甚至暂停宽松步伐的信 ...

1. 二战（1939-1945）期间的利率与货币政策 背景：二战期间，美国经济经历了巨大的动荡和转型，战争带来了大规模的政府支出和生产动员，而战 争结束后，美国迎来了经济复苏和冷战时期的增长。 2. 朝鲜战争（1950-1953）期间的利率与货币政策 背景：朝鲜战争发生在冷战初期，尤其是冷战激化时期，美俄两大超级大国的对抗加剧。美国再次大规 模参与军事行动。 3. 越南战争（1955-1975）期间的利率与货币政策 背景：越南战争持续了二十年，是美国参与的另一场大规模冲突。越南战争加剧了美国的财政赤字和外 部压力，尤其是在冷战的背景下。 4. 第一次和第二次石油危机（1973-1974、1979-1980）期间的利率与货币政策 背景：虽然石油危机不是传统的战争，但它是全球经济和美国经济遭遇的一大冲击。石油价格的剧烈上 涨加剧了全球的通胀，并对美国的经济造成了严重影响。 背景：海湾战争是美国参与的又一场中东冲突，虽然战争本身较短，但其带来的经济和能源价格冲击对 美国经济产生了影响。 6. 伊拉克战争（2003-2011）期间的利率与货币政策 背景：美国对伊拉克的军事干预始于2003年，虽然伊拉克战争对美国经济的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced the initiation of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, which aims to inject liquidity into the market by purchasing short-term Treasury securities, amidst concerns over volatility in the repo market and the need to maintain adequate reserves [1][2]. Group 1: RMP Program Details - The New York Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities over the next 30 days, following the cessation of balance sheet reduction [1][2]. - The RMP will adjust its purchasing scale based on expected trends in the Fed's liabilities and seasonal fluctuations, with the first purchase scheduled for December 12 [2]. - The Fed's statement indicates that reserve balances have fallen to a level that requires intervention to maintain adequate liquidity [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the Fed's insistence that RMP is not quantitative easing (QE), the market has reacted as if it is, with increases in Treasury yields, equities, Bitcoin, gold, and oil, while the dollar weakened [1][4]. - The Bank of America believes that the cash injected through RMP will quickly lower the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), while the Federal Funds Rate (FF) will respond more slowly, creating arbitrage opportunities [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - The RMP's current implementation is compared to the 2019 repo crisis, where similar liquidity injections led to a rapid narrowing of the SOFR/FF spread [6][8]. - The expected monthly RMP scale is approximately 0.15% of GDP, lower than the 0.2-0.3% seen in 2019, indicating a less severe liquidity situation [8].

此类消息行情，波动快空间大，找到顶底是比较难的，鉴于大周期方向仍然在多头牛市中，即便消息造 成利空也看做回调，因此应对思路实际上不需要太复杂，顺着大周期低多，只不过位置上多留一个心 眼，有可能会出现一些极端的价格。 黄金行情走势分析 从当前市场整体预期来看，本次降息预期已经得到市场完全消化，一旦后续没有能进一步提供降息动 能，金银承压下行概率较大。另外美欧乌近期一再对俄乌冲突进行磋商，随时有终结这3月多冲突的可 能，一旦达成共识，金银还会出现新一轮回撤。具体盘面上当前实际非常明朗，维持小区间盘整就按照 小区间震荡去做。上方短期重点关注4220一线阻力，下方短期重点关注4170-4160一线支撑，重点关注 凌晨美联储利率决议公布。 基本面消息 12月11日，目前华尔街各大投行的主流预期是，会是一次鹰派降息，意思是说虽然降息25基点，但明年 的降息可能会变少，如果的确如投行们说的情形，那最终应该是美元利好，然后金银等其他品种利空。 现在无法去猜测鲍威尔最终会释放什么信号，就在今天川建国又威胁要调查他，显然是在施压。另外， 美联储已经在12月1日结束缩表，重新量化宽松已提上日程，如果在这方面鲍威尔有鸽派暗示，则会演 ...

Market - The S&P 500 index is approaching its historical record as the market bets on more easing policies from the Federal Reserve next year, following the Fed's approval of its third rate cut this year, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% - 3.75% [2] - Major US stocks saw significant trading volumes, with Nvidia at $28.964 billion, Tesla at $28.126 billion, and Netflix facing a collective lawsuit over its $72 billion acquisition of WBD, resulting in a 4.14% drop in its stock price [3] - Popular Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with TSMC up 2.21% and Pinduoduo down 1.59%, as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.64% [4] Company - Oracle's quarterly revenue and profit fell short of expectations, leading to a 5.5% drop in its stock price after hours. The adjusted profit per share was $2.26, while adjusted operating revenue was $6.7 billion, below Wall Street's target [25] - If SpaceX successfully goes public at a valuation of $1.5 trillion next year, Elon Musk could become the world's first trillionaire, with his stake in SpaceX potentially worth over $625 billion [26] - Meta is shifting its focus towards a closed-source model for its AI initiatives, with a new model expected to launch in spring 2026, indicating a significant strategic change from its previous open-source approach [27]

影响上，日内在美联储利率决议公布前延续近日的震荡区间表现观望，一直到周四凌晨，美联储如期降 息25个基点，虽然一度卖事实走低录得日内低点； 上交易日周三(12月10日)：国际黄金触底回升收阳，再度收线在短期均线上方，多头力量加强，暗示后 市仍有继续反弹的动力，再度上探4260美元附近阻力。突破则有望触及4340美元或更高位置。反之继续 遇阻则有维持当下的震荡区间波动继续调整走盘。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4207.69美元/盎司，先行盘整后转回落，到欧盘及美盘大部分时段，又处 于4188-4205美元区间内震荡，一直到凌晨3点时段开盘，金价走低触及日内低点4181.85美元，迅速反 弹回升收复日内跌幅，录得日内高点4238.49美元，最终有所回撤，收于4228.35美元，日振幅56.64美 元，收涨20.66美元，涨幅0.49%。 但由于又表示会在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债(变相放水)，以及鲍威尔虽未就近期是否再次降息提 供明确指引，但表示"不包含未来加息"情景，被市场解读为存在明年1月进一步降息的可能；再加上特 朗普批评鲍威尔：降息幅度太小，可以翻倍，应降至全球最低。进一步提升了市场对于未来降息前景 ...