Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing a strong rebound after a recent dip, but the market remains in a volatile state without a clear directional breakout [1][4] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3345 and $3331, while resistance is noted at $3375, with a potential upward target of $3400 [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies, which have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have reached a one-month high, with short-term fluctuations showing strength, supported by a recent high of $3377 and a lower support level at $3362 [4] - The upward pressure on gold is linked to the potential breakdown of U.S.-EU trade negotiations, which has heightened market risk aversion [4] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish short-term outlook for gold, although there are signs of potential adjustments after consecutive rebounds [4]

Group 1 - As of July 21, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 947.06 tons of gold, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On July 21, spot gold rebounded strongly, briefly surpassing $3,400 per ounce, marking the highest level in a month, and ultimately closing at $3,396.93 per ounce, up $47.09 or 1.41% [2] - The significant drop in the US dollar, which fell to a low of 97.70, was a key factor driving the rebound in non-US currencies and spot gold [2] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold until September, despite speculation about earlier rate cuts due to rising economic risks and limited inflation impact from tariffs [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased gold's safe-haven demand, with the US Commerce Secretary expressing confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the EU before the August 1 tariff deadline [3] - Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that high inflation expectations and strong economic data are influencing the anticipated number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are holding above all major simple moving averages (SMA), with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above the midpoint [3] - The next upward target for gold is the $3,400 level, with a confirmed breakout potentially opening up further upward space towards the static resistance level of around $3,440 [3] - The short-term support level for gold is near $3,330, which coincides with the 21-day and 50-day moving averages [4]

Fundamental Analysis - The trade war between the US and EU is intensifying, with Trump threatening to impose tariffs of up to 30% on EU products starting August 1, which has raised concerns about the potential breakdown of trade negotiations and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have risen to 59%, with October rate cut expectations fully priced in, contributing to gold's appeal amid policy uncertainty [3] - Key events to watch include speeches from Bank of England officials and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which may influence market sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The daily trend for gold is currently characterized as "strongly bullish," with a significant upward movement observed on Monday, indicating short-term bullish momentum [4] - Key support levels identified are 3365-3360 and 3345, which are critical for maintaining the bullish trend [4][5] - Resistance levels are noted at 3420 and 3428, with a breakthrough of these levels potentially opening up further upside for gold prices [5][6] Short-Term Outlook - The four-hour analysis confirms a continuation of the bullish trend, with critical support at 3377-3374, which needs to hold for the bullish momentum to persist [8] - The first resistance level to monitor is around 3408-3410, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [8] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases and events to monitor include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting minutes, UK economic stability report discussions, and US manufacturing index data [9]

Group 1 - The current trading price of London gold is around $3355.30 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.18% [1] - The highest and lowest trading points for London gold today are $3358.42 and $3344.72 per ounce, respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs may increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - The deadline for countries to start paying tariffs to the U.S. is August 1, which may lead to increased gold prices due to uncertainty [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with a 94% probability of no change and a 6% probability of a 25 basis point cut [2] - The market's risk appetite has significantly improved, which may weaken the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3360, $3380, and $3400, while support levels are at $3330, $3300, and $3280 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic conditions will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE ratio lead to increased volatility, and in Q3, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: US economic data support the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts, which pressures gold prices. But the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overseas economic recovery weaken the US dollar's safe - haven demand, supporting gold prices. London gold oscillates between $3300 - 3380 per ounce, and silver with strong industrial attributes rises. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policy. It is recommended to hold a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion reduce gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks support it. In June, speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view and participate with medium - low positions. Short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, with data from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US retail sales in June rebounded more than expected, and initial jobless claims reached the lowest level since April, providing reasons for the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts [17]. - The US will impose a 93.5% preliminary anti - dumping duty on anode - grade graphite imported from China [17]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Daly expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, Waller believes the Fed should cut rates at the end of the month, while Kugler thinks the Fed should not cut rates for some time [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate and consolidate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce before rising again. The long - cycle and medium - cycle bull markets of gold are supported by multiple factors, but the volatility is also significant. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The stabilization and rebound of the US CPI in June supported the Fed's decision to stay on hold. The US dollar index rebounded significantly to around 98.5, and London gold fell back to around $3320 per ounce. However, the change in the US attitude towards Russia and the concern about the long - term Russia - Ukraine conflict provided bottom support for precious metals. London gold rebounded slightly to $3340 per ounce in the Asian session on the 16th [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened the hedging and allocation demand for gold, but the hedging demand due to Trump's new - deal uncertainty and geopolitical risks supported the gold price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. The long - cycle and medium - cycle bull markets of gold are supported, but the gold price volatility is significant. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia's President Putin intends to continue the war in Ukraine until Western countries accept his peace terms, believing that Russia's economic and military strength can withstand further Western sanctions [17] - NVIDIA will resume the sales of H20 chips in China, announce a new GPU for the Chinese market, and launch a new graphics card RTX Pro [17] - US President Trump reached an agreement with the Indonesian President. Indonesia promised to buy US energy worth $15 billion, US agricultural products worth $4.5 billion, and 50 Boeing aircraft. The US will impose a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy tariff - free and non - tariff - barrier - free treatment [17] - The US CPI in June rose 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. Traders predict that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in September and cut rates nearly twice by the end of the year [18]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国总统推出更多关税措施特别是对巴西对等关税税率从 10%提高到 50%，关 税武器化程度加剧提振黄金的避险需求；美联储会议纪要显示大部分官员认为关 税政策带来的通胀压力将是暂时的；因此今年晚些时候将重启降息进程，美联储 降息预期再次升温并打压美元汇率和提振贵金属价格，伦敦黄金反弹至 3330 美元 /盎司附近。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险 需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦 ...

Group 1 - Current gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, trading around $3327.25 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical developments and market sentiment [1] - The upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza is expected to ease market tensions, impacting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - The market is closely watching the US Treasury Secretary's indication of a potential extension of tariff deadlines to August 1, which may further alleviate concerns [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with August futures around $3340, indicating a trading range between $3250 and $3476.30 [3] - Retail investor sentiment is bullish, with 59% expecting gold prices to rise, although a lack of new fundamental catalysts may keep prices in a high-level fluctuation [3][4] - Long-term factors such as US debt crisis, a weakening dollar, and inflationary pressures are expected to support gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven and store of value [4] Group 3 - The potential for gold prices to break above $3500 exists if new geopolitical or macroeconomic catalysts emerge, despite current short-term volatility [4] - Investors are advised to monitor trade negotiations, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and interest rate decisions from Australia and New Zealand for potential investment opportunities in the gold market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by strong U.S. employment data, while central bank gold purchasing trends provide long-term support for prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.68 CNY per gram, down 0.4% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3337.5 USD per ounce, down 0.16% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong U.S. employment data for June exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which in turn pressured gold prices [2]. - Over 90% of surveyed central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, with net purchases expected to exceed 1300 tons by 2025 [3]. - Recent geopolitical stability and trade negotiations have reduced gold's safe-haven demand, although potential increases in U.S. debt could enhance its appeal [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests gold may remain weak unless there is a significant deterioration in U.S. unemployment or inflation data [4]. - Long-term potential for gold price increases exists due to weakening U.S. dollar credibility and ongoing central bank purchases, but geopolitical and trade developments must be closely monitored [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump announced the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, which escalates geopolitical risks and disrupts market expectations for US-Iran negotiations [2][4][11] - Trump's statement indicates a dual strategy of sanctions and military threats, emphasizing that sanctions will not be lifted until Iran completely abandons its nuclear program [5][11] - The Iranian government has responded by asserting its readiness to counter any aggression and has called for accountability from the UN Security Council [2][4] Group 2 - The escalation of geopolitical risks has led to significant fluctuations in the gold market, with spot gold prices experiencing a sharp rise and subsequent decline due to market reactions [6][11] - Historical comparisons show that gold prices surged significantly during past US-Iran conflicts, indicating a potential for similar behavior in the current situation [7] - Despite the geopolitical tensions boosting demand for gold, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve poses a challenge to gold prices, as rising interest rates could diminish gold's appeal [8][11] Group 3 - Central banks globally are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings, with a strong interest from emerging market central banks [9] - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves suggests a structural support for gold as it becomes a key beneficiary of the "de-dollarization" trend [9][11] - The risk of an economic recession in the US provides a baseline support for gold prices, despite short-term pressures from interest rate expectations [8][11]