Group 1 - Gold prices have surpassed $3,500, reaching a historical high of $3,508.73 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increasing concerns about the future [1] - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 30%, making it one of the best-performing commodities [1] - The recent surge in gold prices is supported by market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a key U.S. employment report expected to further indicate a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - UBS strategist Joni Teves noted that investors are increasing their gold holdings, particularly as a Federal Reserve rate cut approaches, which is pushing gold prices higher [2] - The low interest rate environment, weak economic data, and rising macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks enhance gold's role as a diversification tool in investment portfolios [2] Group 3 - Over the past three years, both gold and silver have more than doubled in price due to rising geopolitical, economic, and global trade risks, increasing demand for these traditional safe-haven assets [5] - Silver prices have risen over 40% year-to-date, with prices recently surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by its industrial applications in clean energy technologies [5] - The market is experiencing a fifth consecutive year of supply shortages for silver, with a weak dollar boosting purchasing power in major consumer countries like China and India [8]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold reached a historic high of $3504.5 per ounce, driven by concerns over the independence and stability of the Federal Reserve, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Factors - The recent court case regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is seen as a historic test of the Fed's independence, with potential political pressures undermining policy stability, which could negatively impact the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, indirectly benefiting gold [2]. - Market analysts note that the rise in gold prices reflects concerns over institutional stability, with factors such as rising inflation, weak consumer sentiment, and expectations of interest rate cuts supporting the demand for gold [2]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July, aligns with expectations and keeps inflation above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's call for immediate interest rate cuts to mitigate labor market risks has reinforced market expectations for a rate cut in September, with over 80% probability according to CME FedWatch tools [3]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. employment report, with expectations of an increase of approximately 78,000 non-farm jobs in August, which could further bolster demand for gold if the data falls short of expectations [4]. - The interplay between political and economic risks, particularly regarding the ongoing tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve, suggests that market volatility may increase, with gold continuing to attract safe-haven investments but potentially experiencing more dramatic price movements [4].

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold has surpassed the $3,500 mark, reaching a historical high, with a daily increase of approximately 0.74% [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened investor interest in safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in financial conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main gold futures contract in Shanghai has increased by nearly 4% [1] - The gold ETF (518800) has risen by over 1% [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been fueled by Trump's criticism of the Fed [1] - Investors are focusing on the upcoming non-farm payroll report, which could confirm or overturn market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Traders currently believe there is a high likelihood of a rate cut in September, which would be favorable for gold prices [1] - The gold ETF closely tracks gold price movements, with one unit corresponding to 1 gram of gold, providing a liquid trading option [1]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, which is positively impacting gold prices, with a target of reaching $3535 this month [1][6]. Market Performance - On September 1, gold opened at $3448.30 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3436.97, then rebounded to a high of $3489.57, closing at $3476.52, marking a daily increase of $28.22 or 0.82% [3]. - The gold price is expected to maintain a strong upward trend, with a potential target of $3535 if it does not form a bearish reversal pattern [3][9]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and July construction spending, which are expected to exert limited downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - Despite recent declines in short-term and long-term inflation expectations, the overall market remains bullish on gold due to global economic uncertainties and rising demand for safe-haven assets [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through previous horizontal resistance levels, which have now turned into support, indicating a strong bullish momentum [3][9]. - The daily chart shows that gold has been on a five-day upward streak, with the potential to reach the target of $3535 if it maintains its current trajectory [8][9]. Silver Market - For silver, key support levels are identified at $40.25 and $39.80, while resistance levels are at $40.80 and $41.10 [10].

文︱陆弃 上周，美国7月通胀数据一出，市场反应立刻显现。物价持续上涨，通胀缓慢抬头，风险悄然潜伏。美 股三大指数全线下跌，道指累计下跌0.19%，标普500跌0.10%，纳指跌0.19%。投资者赶在9月市场波动 加剧前获利了结，股市表面平稳，暗流汹涌。通胀、经济增长、市场预期，三重因素叠加，投资者神经 紧绷。 与此同时，国际避险资产表现抢眼。上周国际金价涨近3%，8月份累计涨幅超过5%，创今年4月以来单 月最佳表现。投资者对美联储独立性产生疑虑，避险情绪蔓延。原油市场同样活跃，美油上涨0.55%， 布油上涨0.58%。俄乌冲突持续，加上美国原油库存降幅超预期，使市场对供应紧张的担忧加剧。股市 下跌，金油走高，全球资金在不确定中寻找安全出口。 美联储褐皮书及人事变动更添不确定性。7月褐皮书显示，美国经济活动略有增加，通胀提及次数创四 年新低。但高盛提醒，公共部门债务和资产高估是核心风险。特朗普直接免掉理事库克，引发市场对美 联储独立性的质疑，美元信心受损。库克提起诉讼，法院即将受理，这场政治博弈让市场不仅关注数 据，也关注政策稳定性。 投资者在这种环境下变得格外谨慎。美股波动率上升，金油价格攀升，避险资产成为资 ...

"对于普通消费者来说，克价800元是个分水岭。"在水贝从事黄金珠宝生意的陈经理表示："每次金价突 破800元/克，对零售生意的影响就会放大。不过，我认为金价还有上涨空间。" 与此同时，消费者对高金价似乎也已"习惯"。有消费者表示，金价起伏很正常，从长期来看黄金作为避 险资产的地位依然稳固。陈经理也表示，此前金价高位横盘，回收量也没有明显增加，也可以看出大部 分消费者还是看好金价未来走势。 近期，美联储主席鲍威尔的偏鸽派言论以及美国发布的经济数据，均不断强化市场对美联储9月降息的 预期，同时为金价的上涨提供支撑。另外，美国总统特朗普与美联储官员的争端也进一步驱使避险资金 从美元转向黄金，从而推升金价。据最新的CME"美联储观察"数据，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为 12.6%，降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。在此背景下，华尔街齐声看好金价行情。 金价再度大涨。 今日（9月1日），COMEX黄金价格盘中最高涨至每盎司3557.1美元，突破了8月初创下的每盎司3534.1 美元的历史高点；现货黄金逼近今年4月创下的每盎司3500美元历史纪录。受此影响，A股黄金股全线 飙涨，国内多家品牌金饰价格再度超过1000元/ ...

金价再度大涨。 世界黄金协会发布的《2025年二季度中国黄金市场回顾与趋势分析》指出，下半年中国金饰消费或继续 承压，因消费者信心低迷与金价高企，行业整合也将抑制上游需求，不过季节性改善及潜在政策刺激有 望提供部分支撑。有分析人士认为，上半年以美元计算的金价涨幅高达26%，跑赢多数主流资产类别。 如此强势的开局，意味着今年下半年金价可能会在相对窄幅的区间内震荡。此外，宏观经济环境前景仍 高度不明朗，这或许将为黄金提供进一步支撑。若全球经济或地缘政治局势出现任何实质性恶化，黄金 作为避险资产的吸引力都可能被进一步放大，将推动金价再度走高。 "对于普通消费者来说，克价800元是个分水岭。"在水贝从事黄金珠宝生意的陈经理表示："每次金价突 破800元/克，对零售生意的影响就会放大。不过，我认为金价还有上涨空间。" 与此同时，消费者对高金价似乎也已"习惯"。有消费者表示，金价起伏很正常，从长期来看黄金作为避 险资产的地位依然稳固。陈经理也表示，此前金价高位横盘，回收量也没有明显增加，也可以看出大部 分消费者还是看好金价未来走势。 近期，美联储主席鲍威尔的偏鸽派言论以及美国发布的经济数据，均不断强化市场对美联储9月降息 ...

金价再度大涨。 而在深圳水贝黄金珠宝市场，记者采访了多位商家得知，8月30日水贝市场的金饰克价在796元左右，今 日的克价已经涨到806元。 "对于普通消费者来说，克价800元是个分水岭。"在水贝从事黄金珠宝生意的陈经理表示："每次金价突破 800元/克，对零售生意的影响就会放大。不过，我认为金价还有上涨空间。" 与此同时，消费者对高金价似乎也已"习惯"。有消费者表示，金价起伏很正常，从长期来看黄金作为避险 资产的地位依然稳固。陈经理也表示，此前金价高位横盘，回收量也没有明显增加，也可以看出大部分消 费者还是看好金价未来走势。 今日（9月1日），COMEX黄金价格盘中最高涨至每盎司3557.1美元，突破了8月初创下的每盎司3534.1 美元的历史高点；现货黄金逼近今年4月创下的每盎司3500美元历史纪录。受此影响，A股黄金股全线飙 涨，国内多家品牌金饰价格再度超过1000元/克，深圳水贝市场的金饰克价也再度突破800元。 近期，美联储主席鲍威尔的偏鸽派言论以及美国发布的经济数据，均不断强化市场对美联储9月降息的预 期，同时为金价的上涨提供支撑。另外，美国总统特朗普与美联储官员的争端也进一步驱使避险资金从美 元 ...

截至发稿，COMEX黄金报3543.4美元/盎司，伦敦现货黄金报3469.86美元/盎司。这已是国际金价连续第五个交易日上涨。 黄金、白银期货价格9月双双迎来"开门红"。 9月1日，COMEX黄金主力合约价格快速拉升，盘中最高触及3552.4美元/盎司，日内涨幅超1%，突破8月高点再创历史新高，今年以来累计涨幅扩 大至约35%。 同日，伦敦现货黄金价格同步攀升，最高达3486.16美元/盎司，距今年3500美元的历史高点仅不足1%。 此外，COMEX白银期货价格也于9月1日上午刷新历史新高，盘中最高触及41.64美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅达41%，超过黄金同期涨幅。 国际金价五连涨、 9月1日，COMEX黄金主力合约价格快速拉升，盘中最高触及3552.4美元/盎司，再创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金价格同步攀升，最高达3486.16美元/ 盎司。 多重利好刺激贵金属价格走高 谈及贵金属价格走高的原因，一位贵金属分析师对智通财经记者表示，主要是纽约期货相对于伦敦现货的溢价率回到年内高位，与二者关税预期 重新强化有关。剔除关税的因素，对应基本面就是白宫无视通胀预期走高强压美联储降息，宏观点说是降低美元资产信用，微观点说是再 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] Core Viewpoints - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being challenged, and if Trump's policies fail to boost the US economy effectively, the probability of the US entering stagflation will increase, which may further weaken the US's competitiveness and push up the price of US gold. Currently, US gold is around the key level of 3,500, and its further trend needs continuous observation [2] - Recent economic data shows that the US economy remains resilient. If there are significant interest rate cuts, the probability of rising inflation will increase, and the US economy and the US dollar will face the risk of further capital outflows. At that time, safe-haven assets will strengthen [3] - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Due to the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the impact on the Fed's independence, the US dollar index has been weakening, leading to a significant appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate. However, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has not had a continuous impact on precious metals, and the short-term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate are limited [4] - The market believes that a September interest rate cut is highly likely, and in the future, the market will focus on the magnitude of the rate cut. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold, causing US gold to rise again. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may still be synchronized and need continuous observation [30] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Concerns about the Fed's independence have boosted the price of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may be synchronized, but the upward trend of silver is affected by the fluctuations of gold [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, sued President Trump over his attempt to fire her. The US second-quarter GDP and core PCE price index data were released, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned the interview process for the Fed chair position [13][15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US economic data shows high resilience, with positive growth in GDP, retail sales, and core PCE price index, although there are some weaknesses in non-manufacturing and consumption [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and the US and the EU have reached a new trade agreement. The US may also increase tariffs on chips and semiconductors [20] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - Initial jobless claims decreased, and the service industry PMI reached a new high. The price of crude oil was affected by production cuts, and the prices of domestic and foreign copper showed different trends. With the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September, high-risk preference assets may strengthen [21] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. The weakening of the US dollar has led to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but its impact on gold is limited [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market believes a September interest rate cut is likely, and the focus will be on the rate cut magnitude. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver need continuous observation [30]