中国银河（601881）宏观认为，从总的政策基调来看，本次政治局会议强调要坚持"稳中求进、提质增 效"，明年是"十五五"规划开局之年，聚焦国内"提质增效"，有利于赢得"十五五"规划良好开局。当前 百年变局加速演进，面对外部不确定性，宏观政策要以"我"为主，把握好"逆周期""跨周期"力度，推动 经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，以确定性应对不确定性。 【导读】明年经济工作坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"总基调，为"十五五"规划开局注入强劲动力 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 受访专家表示，会议强调明年经济工作坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"总基调，兼顾了短期稳增长与中长期 高质量发展。同时，宏观政策、扩大内需、创新驱动等多方面协同发力，将为"十五五"规划开局筑牢根 基，更好推动我国经济高质量发展。 亮点1：紧扣"稳中求进、提质增效"总基调 为"十五五"规划开局夯实基础 会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策""持续 扩大内需、优化供给"，并将"内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务首位。 上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚表示，此次宏观 ...

龚正指出，做好经济工作首先要主动把握时与势、深刻洞察危与机。当前外部环境仍在深刻复杂变化， 上海经济长期向好的基本趋势仍在延续，支撑高质量发展的积极因素加快累积。我们既要增强忧患意 识，勇于应对新挑战，更要保持战略定力，着力把握新机遇，围绕推动高质量发展这个首要任务和构建 新发展格局这个战略任务，集中力量做好自己的事，努力取得更多实实在在的工作成效。 聚焦重点、精准发力，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头！ 上海市委副书记、市长龚正今天（12月9日）主持召开2026年经济领域工作思路座谈会，传达学习中央 政治局会议精神，深入谋划明年上海经济发展举措。龚正指出，要深入贯彻党的二十届四中全会和习近 平总书记考察上海重要讲话精神，在市委的坚强领导下，准确把握形势，积极识变应变求变，把明年工 作谋深、谋细、谋实，更好地聚焦重点、精准发力，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头，确保"十五五"经济工 作开好局、起好步。 会上，市发展改革委、市经济信息化委、市商务委、市科委、市财政局、市文化旅游局、市国资委、市 统计局、市税务局、市委金融办、临港新片区管委会、虹桥国际中央商务区管委会作汇报发言。龚正认 真倾听记录，不时交流讨论，与大家研判形势， ...

[Table_Title] 策略研究|策略深度报告 关注"十五五"产业布局的重点方向 [Table_ReportType] ——策略深度报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | | | | 分析师: [Table_Authors] | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 18028875418 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 A 股市场投资风格出现切换 A 股三季报盈利能力延续修复 基金配置集中度提升 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_RightTitle] 策 略 深 度 报 告 策 略 研 究 ⚫ "十五五"规划建议为产业发展指明方向："十五五"时期 是我国基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关 键时期。《建议》将"建设现代化产业体系"作为牵引高质量 发展的首要任务。与"十四五"规划相比，《建议》中现代化 产业体系的内涵更为丰富。三大方向为坚持"智能化、绿色 化、融合化"发展。四项重点任务为优化提升传统 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 黎雨辰 广州报道 12月5日至6日，由南方财经全媒体集团主办，21世纪数字传媒承办的南方财经论坛2025年会，在广州南 方财经大厦成功举办。 其中在6日的证券业年会上，中国银河证券党委委员、副总裁罗黎明发表了题为"金融报国践行高水平开 放，熔铸枢纽服务全球化布局"的主题演讲，系统阐述了中国资本市场对外开放的新趋势、东盟地区 在"十五五"期间的战略机遇，以及证券公司在服务企业全球化进程中可发挥的枢纽作用。 对比我国历次五年规划的重点任务排序，"开放"在"十五五"规划建议中的位次大幅前移，位列第五大重 点任务。高水平对外开放战略重要性的提升，为企业"走出去"创造了良好的生态。 对此，罗黎明在会上表示，证券公司要以发挥功能性作用为关键首要，将科技转化为创造增量价值的持 续动能，把自己的发展融入到服务国家战略中去。 活力东盟蕴藏广阔机遇 "十五五"规划建议明确，坚持开放合作、互利共赢是中国式现代化的必然要求，并从积极扩大自主开 放、推动贸易创新发展、拓展双向投资合作空间、高质量共建"一带一路"四个维度作出安排，描绘了未 来五年中国对外开放的清晰路径。 回顾2024年中国对外直接投资，东盟在其中的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The digital transformation of the consumer market is accelerating, with the deep integration of industrial and consumer internet (referred to as "dual network integration") continuing to deepen, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the interaction between supply and demand to enhance domestic circulation [1][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - The construction of a strong domestic market is a key goal during the "14th Five-Year" period, with expanding domestic demand as the core strategy [3] - Currently, Chinese household consumption accounts for about 40% of GDP, which is over 20 percentage points lower than that of developed countries, indicating significant potential for growth in consumption's contribution to economic growth [3] - Dual network integration can enhance the adaptability of supply and demand through digital means, providing a feasible technical path and market mechanism to increase consumption's contribution to economic growth [3] Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is a crucial aspect of implementing dual network integration, yet many SMEs face challenges due to limitations in funding, technology, and talent [3][4] - Local governments are encouraged to enhance the digital capabilities of SMEs through comprehensive digital upgrades in industrial parks and by encouraging leading enterprises to share digital capabilities with their supply chain partners [3][4] Group 3: Traditional Enterprises and Employment - For traditional enterprises in transition, a shift in awareness is the first critical step, as many still rely heavily on inefficient traditional channels [4] - Dual network integration offers traditional enterprises a new avenue to directly reach consumers and better understand market demand changes [4] - The emergence of new integrated business models creates numerous opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship, particularly for young people, thereby contributing to stable employment and enhancing livelihoods [4] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To promote the continuous deepening of dual network integration during the "14th Five-Year" period, policies should focus on three areas: strengthening planning guidance, improving financial support systems, and leveraging industry associations to provide professional services for enterprise transformation [5]

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to policy expectations from the "14th Five-Year Plan," with technology growth likely to continue outperforming in Q4 [1] - The main sectors attracting net inflows include PCB, LED, OLED, photovoltaic, and charging piles, indicating strong investor interest in these areas [1] - The domestic embodied intelligence sector has surpassed a total market value of 3 trillion yuan, with significant growth potential as capital accelerates for domestic new forces [3] Group 2 - The dairy market is stabilizing post-holidays, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase, while deep processing and overseas markets show rapid growth potential [5] - The price of beef cattle is expected to experience upward pressure due to a projected decline in supply by over 10% since 2024, indicating a potential price rebound [5] - The global investment community is regaining confidence in AI, with storage chips being favored as a critical material, leading to anticipated price increases that may last until mid-next year [5] Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to enter a "structural market second half" focused on high-quality development, with long-term funds likely to concentrate on industries with strategic support value [9] - The ability of the ChiNext index to stabilize above 3200 points will be crucial for determining whether new highs can be achieved by year-end, with ongoing positive sentiment in technology stocks [9] - Investors are advised to maintain a medium to high position structure, focusing on advanced manufacturing, technology hardware, green energy, and digital economy sectors driven by policy [9]

Group 1 - The report outlines a grid trading strategy that focuses on profiting from price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [4][13] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include being exchange-traded, having stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [4][13] - The report highlights key ETFs for grid trading, including the military industry ETF, which is expected to benefit from a new procurement cycle driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and a projected defense budget of 1.81 trillion yuan for 2025, a 7.2% increase [4][14] Group 2 - The gaming ETF is noted for its strong growth potential due to the normalization of game license approvals, with 1,624 licenses issued from January to November 2025, significantly surpassing the previous year's total [5][17] - The software ETF is positioned to capture opportunities from domestic software replacement and AI-driven transformations, supported by policies promoting technological self-reliance and innovation [6][20] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF is expected to enhance commercial monetization through AI integration, as major internet companies are increasingly deploying AI products to improve user engagement and service capabilities [7][23]

Group 1: Economic and Industrial Trends - The core of the "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on building a modern industrial system, emphasizing the reconstruction of high-tech industries over the next decade, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, aerospace, and biomedicine [4][5] - The real estate market is undergoing a significant cleanup, returning to reasonable levels, with new construction and sales dropping to levels seen a decade ago, indicating a shift towards quality and sustainability in development [6][7] - The service consumption sector is identified as a key area for domestic demand growth, with current service consumption accounting for only 46.1% of household spending, significantly lower than the nearly 70% in the U.S., suggesting substantial room for expansion [7] Group 2: External Environment and Market Dynamics - The external environment is experiencing profound adjustments, with U.S.-China tech competition entering a new phase characterized by "ecological competition," which is more systematic and long-term [2][8] - The domestic industry is showing a "K-shaped" differentiation, where high-tech exports are growing while traditional labor-intensive products are declining, reflecting a structural shift in profitability among listed companies [8][9] - The trend of technology companies expanding overseas is becoming a significant growth engine, particularly in sectors like media, communications, and computing, highlighting a disparity between macroeconomic data and social sentiment [9] Group 3: Corporate Profitability and Market Outlook - Corporate profitability is showing signs of recovery, with A-share non-financial companies' revenue turning positive and net profit growth improving, indicating a shift towards asset-liability repair after a prolonged period of risk aversion [11][12] - The capital market is expected to transition from valuation-driven to performance-driven growth, with a structural bull market forming due to improving profitability and favorable internal and external conditions [12] - A potential super cycle for commodities is anticipated, with current commodity prices at historically low levels compared to U.S. equities, suggesting a forthcoming significant and sustained increase in prices [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of major projects in stabilizing the macroeconomic environment and achieving the goals set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Guangdong has established nearly 2,100 technology enterprise incubators and innovation spaces to promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements [1] - The successful grid connection of the world's largest "Hualong One" nuclear power base in Fujian is expected to generate 20 billion kilowatt-hours annually, showcasing significant progress in major engineering projects [1] Group 2 - The new development philosophy is crucial for addressing development challenges and enhancing competitive advantages, with a focus on innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing [2] - Anhui is leading industrial innovation through technological advancements in cutting-edge fields such as quantum information and artificial intelligence, contributing to the formation of future industries [2] - The promotion of ecological corridors in Hubei through the transformation of chemical enterprises reflects a commitment to green development [2] Group 3 - The achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period lay a solid foundation for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," with various regions proactively planning for future development [3] - Jiangxi's finance department is collecting suggestions for 2026's livelihood projects, indicating a focus on targeted measures to enhance public welfare [3] - Zhejiang is innovating in the integration of basic public services, demonstrating a commitment to improving the quality of life for its citizens [3]

重点投资机会方面，该行表示，壮大实体经济、推动科技创新、发展新质生产力及扩大内需等领域 是"十五五"规划的关键方向，同时也是投资者应重点关注的投资主线。尤其是科技创新及新质生产力相 关板块，可能是未来几年股票市场最重要的投资主线。中长期而言，建议关注以内需为主的消费龙头公 司、低估值高息的央国企股、国产替代进程加速的自主品牌。 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，近期股市剧烈波动，但认为投资者应保持定力，不宜过度忧 认，牛市中股市出现调整属于正常现象，短期震荡不改港股上行趋势。该行预计，恒指在2026年12月底 可达30,100点。该行坚定看好2026年中国股票市场的发展，建议投资者采取更长远的投资策略布局港股 市场。中国决策层拥有较丰富的增量政策储备工具，可有效应对中美博弈的复杂性、反复性、长期性。 面对日益复杂严峻的外部环境，预计2026年宏观政策将持续发力、适时加力。 ...