2025年12月14日 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面高位震荡态势 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面新增驱动有限，高位宽幅震荡 | 20 | 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行业研究 中国石化集团： 深化改革积极转型，谱写中国式现代化石化新篇章 ——石油化工行业周报第 432 期（20251208—20251214） 要点 世界级石化龙头砥砺奋进，股份公司上市 25 周年再启航。中国石油化工集团 有限公司是中国最大的成品油和石化产品供应商，世界第一大炼油公司、第二 大化工公司，加油站总数位居世界第二。公司主要包括四大业务板块，分别为 油气和新能源板块、炼油和销售板块、化工和新材料板块以及资本和金融板块。 旗下直接拥有上市公司包括中国石化股份有限公司、中石化炼化工程、石化油 服和石化机械，其中中国石化股份有限公司现有全资子公司、控股和参股子公 司、分公司等共 100 余家，包括油气勘探开发、炼油、化工、产品销售以及 科研、外贸等企业和单位。2024 年以来，全球经济复苏承压，地缘政治风险 上升，国际油价震荡下行，市场供需矛盾突出，公司克服生产经营不利局面， 实现了各业务的高质量发展。2024 年，中国石化集团实现营业总收入 31388 亿元，同比-3.3%，实现归母净利润 578 亿元，同比-13.0%。2025 年是中国 石油化工股份有限公司 H ...

Core Viewpoint - Haier Group has officially signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Goer Group, focusing on deep collaboration in smart home appliances, industrial internet, new energy, and artificial intelligence fields [1] Group 1 - The partnership aims to leverage both companies' strengths in technology and innovation to enhance product offerings and market competitiveness [1] - The collaboration is expected to drive advancements in smart home solutions and industrial applications, aligning with current market trends towards digitalization and sustainability [1]

Global Market Overview - The overseas markets showed mixed performance from December 8 to December 12, 2025, with Japan and South Korea leading gains, as the Korean Composite Index and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Index both rose over 1.5% [2][7] - The US stock market saw declines across all indices except for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the drop at -1.93% [2][7] - Overall valuation changes were moderate, with significant PE expansion observed only in the Nikkei 225 (+1.65x) and the Korean Composite Index (+3.83x), while other indices saw changes not exceeding 1x [2][7] A-share Market Analysis - A-shares exhibited mixed performance with slight valuation contraction from December 8 to December 12, 2025. The CSI 500 index was the only one to exceed a 1% increase at +1.01%, while the SSE 50 and CSI 100 saw minor declines of -0.25% and -0.13% respectively [2][30] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with mid-cap growth leading at +1.46% and mid-cap value lagging at -1.94% [2][30] - As of December 12, 2025, major A-share indices' PE, PB, and PS ratios were positioned within the 72%-86% percentile range for the past year, indicating a favorable valuation for large-cap value stocks [2][31] Industry Performance - The week saw more declines than gains across primary industries, with upstream resources experiencing significant pullbacks and downstream consumption sectors declining across the board [2][52] - The TMT sector showed relative resilience, particularly in electronics (+2.63%) and telecommunications (+6.27%), while the materials and manufacturing sectors displayed notable internal divergence [2][52] - Valuations generally contracted alongside stock prices, with the computer and real estate sectors experiencing PE contractions exceeding 1x, while defense and military (+2.29x), electronics (+1.88x), and telecommunications (+2.88x) saw significant PE expansions [2][52] Valuation Comparisons - The telecommunications sector exhibited the highest valuation attractiveness, with rolling 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year valuation percentiles averaging 98.35%, 99.45%, and 99.67% respectively [2][31] - The consumer sectors, including social services, beauty care, food and beverage, and agriculture, displayed relatively high valuation attractiveness, with average valuation percentiles of 49.21%, 18.22%, 23.75%, and 49.28% respectively [2][52] Emerging Industries - Most emerging industries saw gains, with nuclear power leading at +4.44%. The digital economy sectors, particularly 5G (+4.19%) and IDC (+3.09%), also showed significant increases [2][52] - Valuations in these sectors generally expanded, with IDC and integrated circuits experiencing PE expansions exceeding 2x, while cloud computing and biotechnology sectors saw PE contractions over 1x [2][52]

公告称，上述项目竣工投产后，公司风力发电产业规模将进一步扩大，进而提升公司风力发电产业的盈 利水平。 智通财经APP讯，嘉泽新能(601619.SH)公告，公司拟投资建设敦化泽瑞新能源300MW风电项目、融安 板榄150MW风电项目，上述拟投建风电项目装机容量共计450MW，估算总投资共计约23.66亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the investment landscape in China, emphasizing the importance of adapting to economic cycles and focusing on internal growth strategies within the venture capital and private equity sectors. Group 1: Investment Landscape and Trends - The 25th China Private Equity Annual Conference will be held in Shenzhen from December 2-5, 2025, gathering over a thousand top investors and entrepreneurs to observe China's technological innovation [2] - The investment logic has not changed significantly this year, focusing on companies that lead in technology and manufacturing, with an increase in investment in emerging technologies such as quantum computing and AI [9][10] - The current economic cycle is characterized as an L-shaped stable period, with a focus on long-term growth and addressing shortfalls in various sectors [9] Group 2: Institutional Insights and Strategies - Institutions are increasingly diversifying their investment strategies, combining primary and secondary markets, public and private equity, and domestic and international investments [3][4] - The National New Capital Fund has established a series of funds with a total subscription scale exceeding 3 trillion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries and technological innovation [6] - Investment strategies are shifting from direct investments to a combination of fund-of-funds and direct investments, with a focus on strategic and merger investments [11] Group 3: Sector-Specific Opportunities - AI is identified as a foundational trend for future investments, with significant opportunities in sectors such as biomedicine, hard technology, and semiconductor industries [16][20] - The automotive sector is expected to see substantial transformation due to AI, particularly in intelligent driving and related technologies [19] - The advanced manufacturing sector is projected to offer significant investment opportunities, with many companies likely to expand globally [21] Group 4: Post-Investment Management - Effective post-investment management is crucial, focusing on identifying market needs and leveraging institutional strengths to enhance portfolio companies [22] - Institutions emphasize the importance of finding financial resources, talent, and business opportunities to support the growth of their portfolio companies [23] - A structured approach to post-investment management, including categorization and precise resource allocation, is essential for driving industry development [25] Group 5: Future of Entrepreneurship and Investment - The future of entrepreneurship in China is expected to see higher barriers to entry, particularly in hard technology sectors, requiring both scientific and entrepreneurial expertise [28] - The investment landscape is undergoing differentiation, with various types of GP (General Partners) emerging, each with distinct strategies and focuses [28] - The integration of AI into investment processes is anticipated to revolutionize traditional methods, enhancing efficiency and decision-making [24]

来源：中国银河策略 本周A股行情：（1）本周（12月8日-12月12日），A股市场呈现震荡分化行情，全A指数上涨0.26%。 北证50和创业板指涨幅靠前，分别涨2.79%和2.74%，科创50、深证成指和中证1000也录得上涨。而上 证指数、上证50和沪深300小幅回调。（2）从风格来看，本周小盘风格相对占优，中证1000（0.39%） 表现优于沪深300（-0.08%）；五大风格指数中，成长风格涨1.67%，而消费风格和稳定风格跌超1%。 （3）从行业来看，一级行业跌多涨少。涨幅靠前的三个行业分别为通信、国防军工、电子，涨幅分别 为6.27%、2.80%、2.63%。煤炭、石油石化、钢铁等跌幅靠前。 核心观点 本周资金流向：（1）A股市场交投活跃度回暖。本周日均成交额为19530亿元，较上周上升2568.66亿 元；日均换手率为1.7345%，较上周上升0.12个百分点。（2）本周北向资金日均成交额为2324.71亿 元，较上周上升397.27亿元。截至周四，两融余额为25079.69亿元，较上周上升263.01亿元。（3）本周 新成立基金23只，发行份额为182.18亿份。其中，权益类基金共有13只，发行 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [11][13]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a global leader in the chromium salt industry, employing a market share-first and low-cost expansion strategy, which enhances its scale advantages. The company is set to benefit from the growing demand for chromium salts, particularly in high-growth sectors such as high-temperature alloys and metal chromium, while supply constraints are expected to tighten the market [3][11]. Company Overview - The company is engaged in the research, production, and sales of chromium compounds and by-products, utilizing advanced clean production technologies. Its main products include sodium dichromate, potassium dichromate, chromium anhydride, chromium oxide green, and others, which are widely used across various industries [6][20][24]. Demand Side - The demand for chromium salts is primarily driven by traditional sectors such as leather tanning (30.7%), surface treatment (26.5%), refractory materials and metal chromium (21.1%), and pigments (12.0%). The growth in high-temperature alloys is expected to significantly boost the demand for metal chromium and, consequently, chromium salts [7][56][66]. Supply Side - The production of chromium salts faces high environmental barriers, with a significant concentration in China, which accounts for over 40% of global production. The company holds a dominant market share of over 50% in China, benefiting from its advanced production techniques that minimize waste [8][24][27]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a tightening supply-demand balance in the chromium salt market, driven by limited supply growth and increasing demand from high-temperature alloys and other emerging sectors. The company is expected to see a gradual increase in production capacity, particularly following the relocation of its Chongqing base [9][10][36]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth since 2020, with a projected revenue of CNY 40.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase. The net profit for the same year is expected to reach CNY 4.7 billion, a 27.5% increase from the previous year [36][39][46].

Core Viewpoint - The capacitor base film market is experiencing growth driven by increasing demand from the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors, with significant market size projections for 2024 and 2025 in both global and Chinese contexts [1][5][7]. Market Size and Projections - The global capacitor base film market is projected to reach 7 billion yuan in 2024, with specific contributions from the electric vehicle sector (2 billion yuan), renewable energy systems (1.6 billion yuan), and industrial equipment and home appliances (3.4 billion yuan) [1][5]. - By 2025, the global market size is expected to grow to approximately 8.1 billion yuan, with the electric vehicle sector contributing around 2.5 billion yuan, renewable energy systems about 2.1 billion yuan, and industrial equipment and home appliances around 3.5 billion yuan [1][5]. - In China, the capacitor base film market is anticipated to reach 4 billion yuan in 2024, with the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors each contributing 1.4 billion yuan, and industrial equipment and home appliances contributing 1.2 billion yuan [7]. - The Chinese market is projected to grow to approximately 4.6 billion yuan by 2025, with similar contributions from the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors [7]. Industry Definition and Role - Capacitor base film is a high-stability electronic material made from biaxially oriented polypropylene, characterized by high insulation, uniform thickness, and low dielectric loss [2][5]. - It serves as the core dielectric material in film capacitors, playing a crucial role in energy storage and maintaining stable insulation under high voltage conditions [2][5]. Industry Development Environment - The capacitor base film industry is supported by various government policies aimed at promoting the development of electronic components, renewable energy, and information industries [11]. Competitive Landscape - The international market for film capacitor base film is dominated by manufacturers from Japan and Europe, with companies like Toray, Wacker Chemie, and Mitsubishi leading in technology and market share [14]. - In China, the market has developed a stable competitive landscape with key players including Tongfeng Electronics, Dazhong Southeast, Longchen Technology, and Haiwei Electronics, among others [14][15]. Industry Trends - The capacitor base film industry is facing opportunities from rapid growth in sectors like renewable energy and AI, but also challenges such as high technical barriers and intensified competition in medium-thick films [4]. - The demand for thinner, higher voltage, and higher temperature-resistant capacitor base films is increasing due to the evolving requirements of downstream applications, particularly in electric vehicles and renewable energy systems [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The FAW Jiefang 2026 Global Partner Conference will be held in Chengdu, showcasing the company's strength as an industry leader with a record number of 228 vehicles on display, including both traditional and new energy models [1][146]. Domestic Vehicle Exhibition - The domestic vehicle exhibition features multiple flagship products from the Changchun and Qingdao bases, covering medium and heavy trucks as well as light vehicles, with a significant debut of the small truck [3]. International Vehicle Exhibition - The international vehicle exhibition highlights the global reach and innovation of FAW Jiefang, emphasizing its commitment to quality and intelligence in vehicle manufacturing [35]. Outdoor Exhibition Areas - The outdoor exhibition areas include displays of medium and heavy trucks from Changchun and light vehicles, showcasing the latest models and technologies [77][89][120]. Smart Operations Pavilion - The Smart Operations Pavilion focuses on intelligent solutions and operational efficiencies, reflecting the company's strategic direction towards smart logistics and vehicle management [59]. New Energy Vehicle Launches - The conference will feature the launch of new energy vehicle rental services under the "Whale E Rental" brand, along with the introduction of the "Blue Road 3.0" platform and the unveiling of two new global vehicle models [146]. Financial Initiatives - A significant financial initiative, the "Billion Financial Pool," will be launched during the conference, aimed at enhancing financial solutions for partners and customers [146]. Market Trends - The market for new energy heavy trucks has seen a surge, with November sales reaching 28,000 units and a penetration rate exceeding 35%, indicating strong growth in the sector [150].