美联储降息预期 - filings, earnings calls, financial reports, news

美联储降息预期

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铜月报：矿端紧张发酵，铜价创历史新高-20251205

Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 14:15

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In December, China's refined copper production is expected to rebound further. With seasonal consumption support and continuous disruptions from scrap copper substitution, a slight supply surplus is expected. Overseas demand is neutrally slightly weak, while the expectation of future supply tightening drives the spot market stronger. - The Fed is likely to continue its rate - cut rhythm, and China's end - of - year economic meeting is expected to release clearer policy signals. Despite geopolitical disturbances, the sentiment is slightly warm. - The expectation of mine - end tightness leading to production cuts and spot tightening supports copper prices to reach new historical highs. In the short term, with the support of policy easing expectations, consumption, and limited scrap copper substitution, copper prices may rise further. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and price reactions after the implementation of macro - events. - This month, the reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper is 87,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME 3M copper is 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips and focus on short - term trading [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Points Summary - **Supply**: Major large - scale copper mines have slow supply recovery, and the copper mine supply remains in a tight expectation, while the supply of blister copper is relatively loose. In November, China's refined copper production rebounded, and it is expected to further rebound in December [9]. - **Demand**: In November, China's apparent consumption of refined copper is estimated to have a slight year - on - year increase, and the apparent consumption in December is expected to decline year - on - year. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and the demand expectation is neutrally slightly weak [9]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November, the export window for SHFE copper under the processing trade with imported materials opened, and the price difference between US copper and LME copper remained [9]. - **Inventory**: In November, the inventories of SHFE and bonded areas decreased, while the inventories of COMEX and LME increased. The total inventory increased, but the structural problem still exists. It is estimated that China's inventory will slightly accumulate in December [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In November, copper prices continued to rise after consolidating at a high level. Expectations of tightened copper mine supply, smelting production cuts, and Fed rate cuts drove copper prices to hit new historical highs. The main contract of SHFE copper rose 0.48% in the month, and the LME 3M contract rose 2.61%. The US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated. At the beginning of December, copper prices broke through upwards [19]. - **Price Difference between Markets**: Since November, the import loss of SHFE copper has oscillated and expanded, and the spot export window for processing trade with imported materials has opened. In November, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper oscillated, and the expectation of future tariff collection continued to support the price difference [22]. - **Inventory & Basis**: As of the end of November, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 742,000 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons from the end of October. The total inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years, but the inventory structural problem still exists. China's copper inventory decreased in the month. The exchange inventory was about 98,000 tons, and the off - exchange social inventory was about 74,000 tons. The bonded area inventory increased, and the absolute amount was about 95,000 tons at the beginning of December. LME copper inventory increased, and COMEX copper inventory continued to rise. In terms of basis, the LME market's Cash/3M strengthened in an oscillating manner in November and maintained a premium pattern at the beginning of December; the domestic basis oscillated and increased, and the spot price was at a premium of about 170 yuan/ton over the futures price at the beginning of December [25][28]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of the end of November, the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds oscillated and declined, and the sentiment cooled marginally. The position of SHFE copper first decreased and then increased, and the current position is still at a multi - year high, with long and short positions continuing to confront each other. In December, the impact of market sentiment is expected to mainly come from the Fed's monetary policy attitude, supply expectations, and changes in spot supply and demand [31]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Copper Mine**: In 2025, large - scale copper mines such as Grasberg, Kamoa - Kakula, and EI Teniente had larger - than - expected production declines due to accidents. According to the latest company announcements, the impact of the accidents is longer than expected. It is estimated that the copper mine production in 2026 will remain close to the 2025 level, and a recovery growth will occur in 2027. Therefore, it is judged that the copper mine supply will remain tight in 2026. In October, Chile's copper production still had a large year - on - year decline, maintaining a low level. In November, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports oscillated and rebounded, and the port spot supply was slightly loose, but the degree of looseness was limited under the background of overseas copper mine production cuts. In terms of processing fees, the spot TC of copper concentrates oscillated at the bottom in November. Due to the low historical level of spot processing fees and the tight copper mine supply, the annual long - term TC contract negotiation was deadlocked [36][39]. - **Supply - Refined Copper**: In November, the domestic blister copper processing fee oscillated and increased, and the cold material supply for refined copper production remained relatively loose. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in the mainstream domestic regions, strengthened and remained at a relatively high level, making a positive contribution to smelting revenue. In November, domestic refined copper production increased month - on - month, slightly higher than expected. In December, the impact of copper smelting maintenance still exists, but the year - end production rush will drive the recovery of refined copper production. At the end of November, CSPT reached a consensus to cut production by 10% in 2026, increasing the uncertainty of domestic copper smelting supply [42][43]. - **Supply - Recycled Copper**: In November, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 3,200 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. Against the background of uncertain local tax rebate policies and rising copper prices, scrap copper had a good substitution advantage. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises oscillated and declined in November. Although the expansion of the refined - scrap price difference increased production enthusiasm, the impact of tax rebate policies on recycled copper rod production was still significant, and short - term substitution was limited [47]. - **Demand - China**: Assuming an increase in net imports, the estimated apparent consumption of domestic refined copper in November was about 1.472 million tons, with a slight year - on - year increase and a significant month - on - month rebound. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to November was about 15.113 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. From the perspective of leading economic indicators, the official manufacturing PMI in China rebounded in November, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI weakened, and the improvement in manufacturing prosperity was not obvious. The production of copper products in China increased by about 5.9% in the first 10 months of 2025, with the growth rate declining month - on - month. According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in November, and the operating rate in December is seasonally strong, but it is expected to decline slightly month - on - month after the rise in copper prices. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in China oscillated and rebounded in November, with the average operating rate lower than the same period last year, but the current operating level is not low against the background of continuous rising copper prices. The operating conditions of domestic wire and cable enterprises improved in November, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rebound in December. In the downstream, the year - on - year decline in power investment (power source + power grid) continued in October, the year - on - year decline in new photovoltaic installations continued with a slight month - on - month increase, and the year - on - year growth of new wind power installations turned positive. The relevant demand is expected to improve marginally near the end of the year. From high - frequency data, the domestic real estate transaction data in November was weaker than the same period last year, and the production schedule of home appliances in the real estate backend remained weak; the high - frequency data of automobile sales in November remained strong [50][53][56][59][62]. - **Demand - Overseas**: In November, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies was differentiated. The prosperity of the United States, the Eurozone, and India declined, while that of the United Kingdom and Japan improved. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption increased year - on - year and month - on - month in September 2025, and the consumption from January to September increased by about 5.5% [65]. 4. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed Policy**: The US government shutdown led to a delay in data release. The recently released ADP data showed that the US job market was still relatively weak. Due to the weak job market, recent Fed officials' statements were dovish, and the probability of a rate cut at this month's interest - rate meeting exceeded 80%. The Fed stopped quantitative tightening on December 1st, and the direction of marginal policy easing remained unchanged. In November, the US dollar index oscillated, and the direction of the US dollar indicated by US monetary policy was bearish; the US 10 - year inflation expectation oscillated and stabilized, still deviating from the copper price trend [70][72].