Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold, as President Trump postponed the implementation of tariffs on 14 countries to August 1, providing a three-week buffer for negotiations [3] - The strong US dollar, which rose 0.3% to 97.83, continues to exert pressure on gold prices, supported by positive expectations regarding the US economy and a strong June employment report [4] - Rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.435% and the 30-year yield at 4.974%, increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby reducing its attractiveness [5] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper and impending tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals may raise inflation expectations, enhancing gold's long-term appeal as an inflation hedge, but could also delay Fed rate cuts, limiting short-term price increases [6] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a downward trend since being resisted at 3365/3366, with current moving averages indicating a bearish outlook [8] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3320 and 3346, while support levels are at 3287 and 3276, with a significant trendline support at 3247/3245 [10] - The four-hour chart indicates a continuation of the downward trend, with resistance levels at 3316/3324 and support at 3283/3278, suggesting a cautious approach until a clear trend reversal is observed [10] Key Events to Watch - Upcoming economic data releases include China's June CPI, New Zealand's interest rate decision, and the US wholesale sales data, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [12]

关税前景不明，美股涨跌互现，小盘股表现较好，道指落后。特斯拉在前一交易日大幅下跌后反 弹1.3%，英伟达涨超1%、收创新高，市值逼近4万亿美元。 特朗普称8月1日起实施对等关税、不会再推迟，警告欧盟征税函将至。特朗普威胁征50%铜关 税、200%药品关税，纽铜近月合约涨幅1968年来最大。 多国回应特朗普关税：日韩寻求继续谈判、南非辩驳税率还能降、巴西怒斥并强调反制。美财长 同日本首席谈判代表通电话、被传下周访日。德国警告：若不能达成公平贸易协议，欧盟准备报 复。 特朗普称对普京"很不满意"，威胁对俄追加制裁。 特朗普：如果鲍威尔在美联储总部翻修项目问题上误导国会，应当立即辞职。 美联储：美国6月一年期通胀预期降至五个月新低，对裁员担忧减轻。 市场担忧执政联盟选举失利，日本长债风暴再起，日股或也危了。 智元机器人拟收购上纬新材63.62%股份，科创板或迎首家具身智能企业。 提醒：北京时间09:30将发布中国6月CPI、PPI同比。 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 关税前景不明，美股涨跌互现，小盘股表现较好，道指落后。特斯拉在前一交易日大幅下跌后反弹1.3%，英伟达涨超1%、收创新高，市值逼近4万亿美 元。 特朗普寻求收紧清洁能源税收相关制度，太阳能类股下跌，SunRun跌超11%。 美债收益率延续昨日涨势，长债收益率领涨，30年期美债收益率上涨4个基点。20年期美债收益率近4年来首次超过30年期。 特朗普称将实施50%铜关税，纽铜较日低一度暴拉超18%。黄金跌1.1%，盘中一度跌破3300美元。 亚洲时段，沪指距3500点"一步之遥"，光伏、算力产业链爆发，恒指涨1%，金涌投资大涨530%，多晶硅期货涨停，国债齐跌。 纽约Talk第二季上新 | 33年交易老将，华尔街前线洞察 了解详情>> 要闻 特朗普称8月1日起实施对等关税、不会再推迟，警告欧盟征税函将至。特朗普称将实施50%铜关税、药品和半导体关税在望，纽铜一度暴拉 17%。 多国回应特朗普关税：日韩寻求继续谈判、南非辩驳税率还能降、巴西怒斥并强调反制。美财长同日本首席谈判代表通电话、被传下周访日。德 国警告：若不能达成公平贸易协议 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that concerns over inflation due to President Trump's tariff policies have largely dissipated, with consumer inflation expectations remaining stable at 3% for the next year, consistent with pre-Trump levels [1][2] - The monthly Consumer Expectations Survey from the New York Federal Reserve shows a decline in inflation expectations from a peak of 3.6% in March and April to 3% in the latest survey, reflecting a significant drop [1] - Despite the overall stability in inflation expectations, consumers anticipate specific cost increases, such as a 4.2% rise in gasoline prices and a 9.3% increase in medical costs, the highest since June 2023 [2] Group 2 - The survey indicates a positive outlook on employment, with a 1.1 percentage point decrease in the likelihood of rising unemployment over the next year, and the proportion of respondents worried about job loss has fallen to 14%, the lowest since December of the previous year [2] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable, with a 3% expectation for the next three years and 2.6% for the next five years, suggesting a controlled inflation environment [1]

Group 1 - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year have decreased to 3%, the lowest level in five months, down from 3.2% [1] - The median inflation expectations for the next three and five years remain unchanged at 3% and 2.6% respectively [1] - There is a decline in uncertainty regarding price pressures in both one-year and three-year expectations [1] Group 2 - There are mixed signals regarding the labor market; the likelihood of unemployment in the next 12 months has decreased to the lowest level since December of the previous year [2] - Consumers are slightly more optimistic about their financial situation, with a decrease in the proportion of households expecting worse economic conditions in a year [2] - The proportion of households facing difficulties in obtaining credit has decreased, and the likelihood of missing minimum payments in the next three months is at its lowest since May of the previous year [2]

美国6月纽约联储1年通胀预期 3.02%，预期3.13%，前值3.20%。 ...

美国6月纽约联储1年通胀预期将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant fluctuations in US Treasury bonds are due to the structural contradictions in the US Treasury market, leading to intensified supply - demand imbalances. The recent upward inflation expectations in the US and the repricing of Fed policies have also driven the re - evaluation of risk premiums [9]. - The US Treasury storm may lead to higher financing costs and uncertainty, inhibiting the expansion momentum of the US economy and restricting the scope of monetary policy. The increased volatility of US Treasuries exacerbates the fragility of the financial system, and the weakening of the safety of US Treasuries potentially impacts the international status of the US dollar and may accelerate the reconstruction of the global monetary and financial order [9]. - The probability of this Treasury bond fluctuation triggering a systemic risk is low, but attention should be paid to the impact of Treasury bond trends on the US sovereign credit level [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Characteristics and Importance of the US Treasury Market - The US Treasury market is the world's largest and most liquid bond market, a core tool for US fiscal policy and the cornerstone of the global financial system. As of the end of Q1 2025, the outstanding balance of US federal government debt exceeded $36.2 trillion, equivalent to about 125% of GDP. The average daily trading volume has exceeded $630 billion [13]. - It is the anchor of the global financial system. The US Treasury yield (e.g., 10 - year) is the "risk - free interest rate" reference for global asset pricing, and US Treasuries are recognized as safe - haven assets [13]. - It is based on the pillar position of the US dollar in the international monetary system. The US dollar accounts for about 59% of global foreign exchange reserves, making US Treasuries an important part of central banks' foreign exchange reserves [13]. - It is crucial for US fiscal sustainability and the stability of the global financial market. The low financing cost of US Treasuries is key to US fiscal sustainability, and the stability of the Treasury market is vital for global economic and financial stability [14]. 2. Reasons for the Upward Movement of US Treasury Yields (1) Rising Fiscal Financing Demand and Continued Long - term Supply Pressure - In Q1 2025, US fiscal financing demand remained high. As of April 1, 2025, the total federal government debt exceeded $36.2 trillion. The CBO predicts that the budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 will exceed $2 trillion again, accounting for nearly 7% of GDP. The Treasury may gradually increase the issuance scale in the second half of 2025 [15][16]. (2) Upward Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy Repricing Driving Risk Premium Re - evaluation - On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced a "reciprocal tariff plan", which is expected to significantly increase import prices and exacerbate imported inflation risks. Multiple think - tanks warn that if major economies take reciprocal counter - measures, the US inflation center may rise by 1.5 - 2 percentage points. This may lead to greater uncertainty in the Fed's monetary policy path [18]. (3) Declining Demand for US Treasuries Leading to Insufficient Market Liquidity and Reduced Trading Depth - In recent years, the liquidity of the US Treasury market has declined. In March 2025, the US capital market fluctuated significantly, and investor confidence weakened. In April 2025, the liquidity indicators of the Treasury market continued to deteriorate, and the bid - ask spread of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasuries reached the highest level since the 2020 "flash crash". Market orders dropped by more than 40% [19]. 3. Potential Impacts and Risks of the Upward Movement of US Treasury Yields (1) The US Treasury Storm Increases Financing Costs and Uncertainty, Inhibiting US Economic Expansion and Restricting Monetary Policy Space - Rising yields directly increase the financing costs of the US real economy. In April 2025, the 30 - year mortgage rate exceeded 7.25%, and the residential transaction volume decreased by about 12% month - on - month. The nominal financing rate of mid - investment - grade corporate bonds exceeded 5.8%, and some capital expenditure projects were postponed [21]. (2) Increased Volatility of US Treasuries Exacerbates the Fragility of the Financial System and Amplifies Systemic Financial Risks at Home and Globally - The significant increase in US Treasury yields is causing a wide - scale re - evaluation of the balance sheets of the financial system, increasing the vulnerability of domestic financial institutions and amplifying global financial stability risks through cross - market linkages. In April 2025, emerging market bond ETFs had a net capital outflow of over $4 billion in the first two weeks [23][25]. (3) The Weakening of the Safety of US Treasuries Potentially Impacts the International Status of the US Dollar and May Accelerate the Reconstruction of the Global Order - The US Treasury market's weakening liquidity and increased volatility are eroding the traditional safe - haven perception of US Treasuries. The issue of US fiscal sustainability is becoming more prominent, which is eroding the credit foundation of the US dollar and may accelerate the shift of international reserve asset allocation to a multi - currency system [26]. 4. Future Scenario Analysis of US Treasury Trends (1) Baseline Scenario (60% Probability): Policy Tends to be Restrained, and the Market Restores Limited Stability - The Trump administration shows some policy convergence after market fluctuations, and the Fed maintains its independence and gradually releases easing signals. In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain at a relatively high level, but the sharp upward trend will slow down, and volatility is expected to converge. In the medium term, if policy stability improves and the Fed gradually cuts interest rates, Treasury yields are expected to decline [28][30]. (2) Risk Scenario (30% Probability): Radical Tariff Policies Lead to a Sharp Rebound in Inflation, Policy Re - tightening, and a Significant Increase in US Treasury Risks - If the US imposes comprehensive tariffs and global energy and commodity prices rise, inflation may rise above 3%. The Fed may be forced to postpone interest rate cuts, and the US economy's "stagflation" expectations will be strengthened. Both short - term and long - term Treasury yields face upward pressure [31]. (3) Crisis Scenario (10% Probability): In Extreme Situations, the Trump Administration Continues to Take Radical Policies and Puts Pressure on the Fed, Leading to Monetary Policy Chaos and a Financial Crisis - If the Trump administration promotes high - intensity fiscal expansion and trade protection measures, and the Fed loses its policy independence, it may trigger a liquidity crisis. The 10 - year yield may soar irrationally, and the US financial system may face a serious systemic financial crisis [32].

摘要周二（7月8日）欧盘时段，现货黄金维持窄幅震荡格局，FOMC会议纪要临近，金价走势仍承压整 理，目前黄金价格暂企3330美元关口上方，市场正在消化美国总统特朗普将7月9日关税截止日期推迟至 8月1日的决定，同时特朗普声称美国接近达成多项贸易协议。 周二（7月8日）欧盘时段，现货黄金维持窄幅震荡格局，FOMC会议纪要临近，金价走势仍承压整理， 目前黄金价格暂企3330美元关口上方，市场正在消化美国总统特朗普将7月9日关税截止日期推迟至8月1 日的决定，同时特朗普声称美国接近达成多项贸易协议。 【要闻速递】 周一（7月7日），特朗普在华盛顿签署了一项行政命令，宣布将原定于7月9日凌晨生效的"对等关税"推 迟三周，至8月1日。为进一步施压，特朗普通过其Truth Social平台向日本、韩国、马来西亚等14个国家 的领导人公开发出信函，明确了8月1日起可能实施的关税税率。 本周，投资者将密切关注美联储6月政策会议记录以及多位美联储官员的讲话，以寻找货币政策的最新 线索。特朗普的关税政策无疑加剧了通胀预期，使得美联储的降息路径更加复杂。根据芝商所的 FedWatch工具，市场预计7月维持利率不变的概率高达95%， ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight increase, reaching $3345.71 per ounce, reflecting a 0.3% rise, influenced by the interplay between the US dollar and risk aversion sentiment [1] - The announcement of Trump's tariff policy led to a significant drop in US stocks, which in turn spurred a rapid increase in gold prices due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, indicating a strategic emphasis on gold as a key asset amid global economic uncertainties [1] Market Dynamics - As the largest gold consumer globally, China's continuous gold purchases provide crucial support for gold prices, especially in light of potential global trade tensions stemming from Trump's tariff policies [2] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting minutes and speeches from various officials for insights into monetary policy, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates in July at 95% and a 60% chance of a rate cut in September [2] Technical Analysis - Current gold market trends indicate an upward price movement, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [6] - The MACD indicator shows upward momentum, although market activity appears to be decreasing, suggesting a cautious trading approach [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes placing a short position around $3339 with a stop loss at $3346 and a take profit target in the $3310-$3300 range [7]