欧洲央行调查：欧元区通胀预期在美关税前上升 金十数据4月29日讯，欧洲央行周二调查显示，在美国对大多数国家加征关税、发起可能削弱经济增长 的全球贸易战之前，欧元区消费者在3月提高了对未来几年的通胀预期。未来12个月的通胀预期为 2.9%，高于上月调查的2.6%；未来三年通胀预期从2.4%升至2.5%。尽管此类上升通常会引起欧洲央行 警惕，但该数据采集于美国加征关税前，而关税政策已根本性改变全球经济前景。欧元走强、能源价格 下跌、经济增长可能减弱，这些因素都有可能降低物价增长。由于前景发生了巨大变化，欧洲央行在4 月再次降息，并警告经济增长乏力。一些政策制定者甚至认为通胀目标再次失守2%的风险。 ...

Economic Overview - Wuhan's GDP for Q1 reached 475.941 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 8.163 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%; the secondary industry added value was 168.832 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%; the tertiary industry added value was 298.946 billion yuan, growing by 6.9% [1] Sector Performance - Agricultural production is stable with major agricultural products showing steady growth; industrial production is recovering, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 20.1% [1] - Production of lithium-ion batteries, medical instruments, and industrial robots saw year-on-year increases of 148.7%, 131.1%, and 122.5% respectively [1] - The service sector is performing well, with all ten major industry categories achieving growth, particularly in leasing, business services, and scientific research, which maintained double-digit growth [1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Wuhan grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with high-tech industry investment increasing by 19.6% and private investment rising by 7.6% [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 241.021 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year, with a significant increase in smart wearable device sales, which grew by 160% [2] - The total import and export volume reached 94.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.8% [2] Consumer and Employment Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Wuhan rose by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating moderate inflation [2] - Per capita disposable income for residents was 17,471 yuan, a 4.9% increase year-on-year, with the income gap between urban and rural residents narrowing [2] - Employment conditions remain generally stable, contributing to the overall economic stability [2] Future Outlook - The statistical authorities emphasize the need to consolidate the foundation for economic recovery amid a complex external environment, aiming for a strong performance in Q2 to achieve annual economic and social development goals [2]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：即将发布的数据显示，2025年第一季度将出现温和增长。展望未来，预计通胀 将保持在我们的目标附近。 ...

Group 1 - BlackRock has initiated a strategy to increase investments in the UK, with CEO Larry Fink stating that the UK market, particularly the banking sector, is severely undervalued [1] - Fink expressed greater confidence in the UK’s economic outlook compared to a year ago, highlighting the government's efforts to address economic challenges [1] - The company manages approximately £570 billion in assets in the UK, including stocks, bonds, and infrastructure [1] Group 2 - Fink described the current economic policy in Europe, including the UK, as a "surrender moment," indicating a shift towards prioritizing economic growth [1] - He noted improvements in the decision-making speed of the UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) as a positive sign of government support for growth [1] - Fink pointed out the significant undervaluation of UK assets, especially in the banking sector, citing the rebound in valuations of banks like NatWest and Lloyds [1]

新加坡央行警告称，持续的全球贸易战可能对经济增长和通胀构成更大风险，首轮关税已预计影响到 60%的该国对美出口。新加坡金管局周一在宏观经济评估报告中指出，经济增长前景已转为"更加谨 慎"，美国关税上调可能压缩出口商利润率、削减生产并抑制国内收入。该机构强调，贸易政策走向仍 存在"显著不确定性"。"贸易冲突若长期持续，可能对经济增长构成进一步下行风险，进而影响通 胀，"报告称。"相反，贸易紧张局势可能随时间推移缓和，这可能提振信心和出口活动。"（彭博） ...

世界银行：预计2025年西巴尔干六国经济将实现3.2%的联合增长，2026年预计增长3.5%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]

第一：第一季度规上工业企业利润增长0.8% 1—3月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额15093.6亿元，同比增长0.8%。 其中，1—3月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额5599.5亿元，同比下降1.4%；股份 制企业实现利润总额11101.5亿元，增长0.1%。 真是厉害了，不过对比GDP的增速还是稍微慢了点，需要更加努力。看来一季度的经济增长，主要是规 下企业创造的。 反正，说来说去都是他，我现在对他已经麻木了。但我内心一直很清楚，他是一个顶级的谈判高手，不 能掉以轻心。 第四：周一开盘怎么看？ 周一A股即将开盘，在持续利好、会议支持的情况下，A股能够走到什么程度？我很期待。 小企业，大力量。 近日，对面的金毛说，除非我们先做出实质性的让步，否则不会取消对我们的贸易摩擦。 战术上藐视他，战略上重视他。 第三：知名分析师，苹果将销美iPhone全搬到印度组装不切实际 针对媒体报道的，计划在明年年底强，实现"每年面向美国市场销售的6000多万部iPhone全都由印度供 应"这个说法。 知名分析师克雷格·莫菲特称，这种设想不切实际，因为IPhone的零部件仍然需要在中国制造，而且在 可预见的 ...

Economic Overview - Chengdu leads with a GDP of 593.03 billion, while Mianyang's GDP surpasses 100 billion for the first time at 103.57 billion, ranking second [1][2] - The total GDP of Sichuan for Q1 is 1,524.692 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [1] Year-on-Year Growth Rates - Chengdu's GDP growth rate is 6.0%, exceeding the provincial average by 0.5 percentage points [2] - Meishan has the highest GDP growth rate at 7.6%, followed by Deyang at 7.5%, which is a significant improvement of 5 ranks from the previous year [2] - Nanchong's GDP growth rate is 5.6%, marking its best performance in five years [3] Industrial Performance - Sichuan's industrial output value increased by 7.2%, marking the strongest start in three years [4] - Meishan's industrial output value grew by 24.3%, the highest in the province, with significant contributions from new energy and materials sectors [4] - Zigong's industrial output value increased by 18.3%, ranking second in the province, while Bazhong achieved an 18.2% growth, ranking third [5] Future Economic Goals - Several cities aim to surpass significant GDP milestones, with Nanchong and Dazhou targeting 300 billion, and Meishan, Zigong, and Suining aiming for 200 billion [6] - The focus is on enhancing project construction and fostering private sector growth, with Dazhou planning to allocate 10 million for supporting private enterprises [7]

智通财经APP注意到，欧洲央行官员正准备进一步降息，他们预计即使特朗普政府在接下来的几周内软化立场，美国关税仍会对经济造成持久损害。 本周在国际货币基金组织(IMF)举行紧张会议后，大多数政策制定者都带着失望离开华盛顿。他们预计特朗普不可预测的行为将继续助长不确定性，抑制支 出和投资，并最终在未来一段时间内抑制通胀。 欧元升值、财政支出增加导致的融资条件收紧以及能源价格下跌也将对物价构成压力，这强化了6月份降息25个基点的理由。此后会发生什么将在很大程度 上取决于对明年及以后的最新通胀预测。 欧洲央行已降息七次 美国银行、德意志银行和摩根士丹利的经济学家已经预计，欧洲央行会将存款利率(目前为2.25%)在今年降至至少1.5%，以刺激需求。 国际货币基金组织欧洲部门主任阿尔弗雷德·卡默上周五表示，再降息25个基点"就可以实现2%的目标"。在缺乏"重大冲击"的情况下，"我们认为没有必要将 利率降至2%以下"。 经济学家认为，这一门槛是最接近中性的估计，既不会刺激也不会限制需求。它可能成为一个关键标志，政策制定者，尤其是那些更为鹰派的人士，可能不 愿跨越这一门槛。 尽管管理委员会成员奥利·雷恩和格迪米纳斯·西姆库斯 ...