智通财经APP注意到，欧洲央行官员正准备进一步降息，他们预计即使特朗普政府在接下来的几周内软化立场，美国关税仍会对经济造成持久损害。 本周在国际货币基金组织(IMF)举行紧张会议后，大多数政策制定者都带着失望离开华盛顿。他们预计特朗普不可预测的行为将继续助长不确定性，抑制支 出和投资，并最终在未来一段时间内抑制通胀。 欧元升值、财政支出增加导致的融资条件收紧以及能源价格下跌也将对物价构成压力，这强化了6月份降息25个基点的理由。此后会发生什么将在很大程度 上取决于对明年及以后的最新通胀预测。 欧洲央行已降息七次 美国银行、德意志银行和摩根士丹利的经济学家已经预计，欧洲央行会将存款利率(目前为2.25%)在今年降至至少1.5%，以刺激需求。 国际货币基金组织欧洲部门主任阿尔弗雷德·卡默上周五表示，再降息25个基点"就可以实现2%的目标"。在缺乏"重大冲击"的情况下，"我们认为没有必要将 利率降至2%以下"。 经济学家认为，这一门槛是最接近中性的估计，既不会刺激也不会限制需求。它可能成为一个关键标志，政策制定者，尤其是那些更为鹰派的人士，可能不 愿跨越这一门槛。 尽管管理委员会成员奥利·雷恩和格迪米纳斯·西姆库斯 ...

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, Dongguan's GDP reached 298.158 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The overall economic performance is characterized by stable production supply, a noticeable recovery in the consumer market, and rapid growth in imports and exports [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial output in Dongguan showed steady growth, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 6.9% year-on-year [1] - Key industries experienced significant growth: - Electronic information manufacturing increased by 10.6% - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose by 11.2% - Chemical manufacturing grew by 14.0% [1] - New momentum industries also performed well, with advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.4% and 10.7% respectively [1] Foreign Trade - Dongguan's foreign trade maintained rapid growth in Q1, with total import and export volume reaching 356.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [1] - Exports amounted to 214.35 billion yuan, growing by 12.9%, while imports surged to 142.01 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 36.5% [1] Service Sector - The service sector in Dongguan showed stable development, with added value increasing by 3.9% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from large-scale service enterprises reached 45.464 billion yuan in January-February, marking a 2.6% increase [2] - The logistics industry, particularly multimodal transport and transportation agency services, saw substantial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [2] - The postal, telecommunications, and express delivery sectors also experienced positive trends, with business volumes growing by 52.0%, 8.7%, and 23.8% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international market experienced significant fluctuations last week, influenced by changes in tariff situations, leading to volatility in gold prices and a rebound in U.S. stock markets. Key economic data releases and earnings reports are anticipated this week, which may impact market sentiment and economic forecasts [2][3][4]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q1 is expected to show a sharp decline from 2.4% in Q4 to around 0.5%, reflecting the economic impact of tariff expectations [3]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report will be closely monitored, especially after March's employment figures exceeded expectations [3]. - The PCE data for March is crucial as it is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, alongside other forward-looking data such as the ISM manufacturing index and consumer confidence index [3]. Earnings Reports - The earnings season is entering a busy week with major companies like Visa, Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Berkshire Hathaway set to report their financial results [4]. - Warren Buffett will also be present at the annual Berkshire shareholder meeting, which is a significant event for investors [4]. Commodity Market - International oil prices have declined due to concerns over oversupply and tariff uncertainties, with WTI crude oil dropping 1.55% to $63.02 per barrel and Brent crude oil falling 1.60% to $66.87 per barrel [5]. - Gold prices have also retreated, with COMEX gold futures down 0.79% to $3282.40 per ounce, despite a year-to-date increase of over 25% [5]. European Economic Outlook - The Eurozone's PMI data indicates a challenging economic landscape due to new tariffs, with ECB President Lagarde noting increased risks to economic growth [6]. - Upcoming inflation data and Q1 GDP figures for the Eurozone will be critical in shaping future monetary policy, as inflation continues to decline [6]. Upcoming Events - A detailed schedule of key economic releases and earnings reports is outlined for the week, including various countries' GDP, CPI, and manufacturing PMI data [7].

英国央行行长贝利：关税将对经济增长产生负面影响。 ...

4月24日，成都市统计局发布，一季度，全市实现地区生产总值5930.3亿元，按不变价格计算，同比 增长6.0%，这一增速分别高于四川省和全国0.5和0.6个百分点，也比成都去年全年增速高出0.3个百 分点，显示经济持续向好发展的态势。 支柱产业增长提速 从供给端来看，成都工业表现亮眼。一季度，规模以上工业增加值同比增长8.1%，比上年全年加快 3.3个百分点。其中有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、汽车制造业、通用设备制造业、计算机通信和其他 电子设备制造业增加值分别增长83.7%、25.4%、24.7%、22.7%。 汽车和电子信息产业是成都最重要的两大支柱产业，今年一季度这两大产业实现大幅增长，带动工业 增速提升，为经济增长提供了有力支撑。 2月19日，由成都市经信局市新经济委主办的"携手长三角 共享新机遇"2025"成都⇌长三角"电子信息 产业场景发布会在杭州举行。发布会现场，成都分别聚焦智慧装备、AI基础设施、智慧交通、智慧 应急等场景，共发布187条机会信息，涉及金额超2000亿元，将牵引带动形成市场规模超5600亿元。 成都汽车产量曾经跻身全国十强城市，2017年达到133万辆，但在新能源汽车变革大潮中受到 ...

路透调查：预计2025年阿联酋经济增长4.5%；2026年4.2% (1月份的调查结果为5.0%和4.6%)。 ...

欧洲央行首席经济学家Lane：自夏季以来，贸易政策的不确定性一直备受关注。 有理由对经济保持长期乐观。 由于欧元和能源的存在，抗通胀的力量在那里。 欧洲经济正在增长，展现出韧性。 尽管存在贸易负面因素，经济应会保持增长。 美国是我们的贸易伙伴，但不是唯一的贸易伙伴。 ...

欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩：尽管存在贸易方面的不利因素，经济仍应保持增长。 ...

马来西亚央行行长：基准利率维持在3%有助于促进经济增长，也反映了通胀前景的预期。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) may further lower interest rates this year as there is currently no inflation risk in the eurozone, according to François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France [1] - Villeroy noted that the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies on eurozone prices remains unclear, but overall, these policies could potentially lower price levels in the region [1] - He emphasized that the ECB is likely to initiate rate cuts earlier and more rapidly compared to the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, which he considers reasonable and appropriate [1] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde echoed Villeroy's views, stating that the impact of trade tensions on prices is uncertain, but the resulting inflation slowdown may outweigh inflation effects [2] - ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane expressed confidence that recent data suggests inflation rates should stabilize around the 2% target, citing wage growth as aligning with expectations [2] - However, some European policymakers, like Klaas Knot, Governor of the Dutch Central Bank, expressed caution regarding the unclear effects of tariffs and increased spending in Germany, indicating that there is no immediate need to lower rates to stimulate the economy [2]