南都讯 记者刘嫚 杨文君 发自北京 6月17日，世界经济论坛北京代表处召开新闻发布会，记者从发布会 了解到，世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（夏季达沃斯论坛）将于2025年6月24至26日在天津举 办。本届年会围绕"新时代企业家精神"这一主题，邀请来自 90多个国家和地区的1700多位全球领袖， 共同探讨在地缘经济格局快速变化的背景下，企业家精神和创新如何重新激活经济增长。 五是新能源与材料——随着可再生能源发电能力和能效的发展势头不断加快，技术进步带来的电力需求 攀升给现有的电力系统带来了压力。在此背景下，参会者将探讨什么样的策略有助于保障更安全、更稳 定、更可持续的能源和关键材料供应，从而促进经济增长和提升竞争力。 "虽然全球经济正在经历根本性转变，但我们面临的各项挑战相互交织，仍然需要多方合作，"世界经济 论坛总裁兼首席执行官博尔格·布伦德说。"2025年新领军者年会将汇聚背景多元的领导者，共同探讨体 现企业家精神的创新解决方案如何持续塑造各经济体的未来。" "国家发展和改革委员会坚定支持世界经济论坛在中国举办'夏季达沃斯'论坛，"国家发展和改革委员会 国际合作司副司长陈帅表示，"通过新领军者年会，中国 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 肖震冬】第51届七国集团（G7）峰会于当地时间15日至17日在加拿大艾伯塔省卡 纳纳斯基斯举行。在美国总统特朗普再度返回G7峰会时，"他已经带领全球经济经历了一场过山车式的 起伏"，彭博社13日报道称，而这一次，美国关税政策在国内外遭遇了日益增长的反对，"再次深刻地提 醒人们贸易战的高昂代价"。 同时，美国政府的关税政策也在挑战其作为多数国家主要经济伙伴的角色，及对全球经济议程的影响 力。彭博社的研究模型显示，美国关税政策可能使其在全球贸易中的份额从22%降至16%。这在亚洲市 场尤为明显，当前中国已是该地区多数国家最大贸易伙伴。原TPP成员国（亚太地区）对华贸易占比 23%，对美贸易仅占13%，关税政策可能将美国份额压至11%。 特朗普退出TPP的后果在8年后的今天仍然体现在盟友态度的转变上。 特朗普的关税也打击了许多美国 盟友的经济。随着出口下滑，加拿大等贸易伙伴正面临陷入衰退的可能性。日本和德国标志性的汽车行 业也面临着生存威胁。目前有三个G7成员（加拿大、日本和英国）已加入TPP的"继承者"《全面与进步 跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）。报道援引日本内阁府前高级经济学家川崎健 ...

新华社纽约6月13日电 综述｜中东局势骤然升级致国际市场大幅震荡 新华社记者刘亚南 徐静 分析人士认为，市场对中东局势升级可能冲击全球能源供应链的恐慌情绪加剧，投资者担忧中东地缘政 治风险升高可能拖累包括美国在内的全球经济增长。 安永-博智隆公司首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科预计，若以色列与伊朗的冲突出现"重大升级"，全球经济 将遭受显著冲击，一年后全球实际国内生产总值（GDP）增速将比基本预测情形下减少1.8%，美国实 际GDP增速将比基本预测情形下减少1.9%。 以色列13日多次袭击伊朗境内核设施和军事目标，中东局势升级导致国际市场大幅震荡。股市方面，纽 约股市三大股指当天显著下挫，标准普尔500种股票指数跌破6000点；油价方面，国际油价在隔夜市场 一度大幅冲高，当天收盘时国际油价涨幅均超7%；金价方面，黄金作为避险资产受到市场追捧，现货 黄金价格触及近两个月高位。 由于市场避险需求显著升高，投资者选择在高位抛售。截至13日收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数较前一交易 日下跌769.83点，收于42197.79点，跌幅为1.79%；标普500种股票指数下跌68.29点，收于5976.97点， 跌幅为1.13%；纳斯达 ...

虽然全球经济增速放缓，世界银行并未预测衰退的到来。副首席经济学家Ayhan Kose指出，尽管目前的不确定性给投资带来压力，但全球贸易增长在明年有 望迎来回升。尤其是在人工智能等新技术的推动下，经济增长可能会逐渐恢复。 与此同时，报告也提到，全球贸易增长将在今年仅为百分之一点八，较去 年的百分之三点四大幅下降。这一预期反映出已实施的关税政策对全球经济的抑制作用。如果美国的平均关税进一步上调，可能使今年全球经济增速再下调 零点五个百分点。 在这种背景下，新兴市场和发展中国家整体增速预计将为百分之三点八，略低于之前的预期。这一调整尤为显著的是墨西哥，其对美国的高度依赖导致该国 今年增长预期被下调至百分之零点二。 虽然全球经济面临重重挑战，世界银行仍对未来抱有一定乐观态度。Kose表示，随着全球贸易格局的适应和不确定 性的逐步消散，经济有可能在明年实现温和回升。然而，这一过程将相对缓慢，全球经济的复苏速度将受到多方因素的制约。 报告指出，全球经济增速放缓的主要原因在于不确定性的加剧，特别是美国对外加征关税，令全球贸易关系紧张。世界银行表示，尽管全球经济未必陷入衰 退，但今年的增速将是自全球金融危机以来的最低点。 报 ...

Group 1 - The World Bank does not expect a global economic recession, but anticipates the slowest growth since 2008 due to heightened tensions and policy uncertainty [1] - Approximately 70% of economies have had their growth forecasts downgraded, with a projected global growth rate of 2.3% in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than earlier predictions [1] - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.2% this year, with the U.S. growth forecast significantly reduced from 2.3% to 1.4%, and both the Eurozone and Japan's growth downgraded to 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Nearly 60% of developing economies are projected to experience a slowdown, with growth for emerging markets and developing economies estimated at 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts [3] - The average growth rate for developing economies is expected to decline from 6% in the first decade of the 21st century to below 4% in the third decade, correlating with a decrease in global trade growth [3][4] - Global inflation is expected to remain elevated, with an average rate of 2.9% in 2025, still above pre-pandemic levels, driven by increased tariffs and tightening labor markets [3] Group 3 - The slowdown in growth will hinder efforts in developing economies to create jobs, reduce extreme poverty, and narrow the income gap with developed economies, with per capita income growth projected at 2.9% for 2025, 1.1 percentage points lower than the 2000-2019 average [4] - The World Bank suggests that global economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 will depend significantly on changes in global trade policies [5] - If major economies can alleviate trade tensions, global growth could rebound faster than expected, with potential increases of 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 if tariffs are halved [6] Group 4 - By region, East Asia and the Pacific are expected to see growth slow to 4.5% in 2025, while Europe and Central Asia's growth will drop to 2.4% in the same year, with slight recoveries in subsequent years [6] - The Middle East and North Africa region is projected to accelerate to 2.7% in 2025, while South Asia's growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2025, stabilizing at 6.2% in 2026 and 2027 [6]

值得深思的是，特朗普关税政策的代价或将远超预期。历史经验表明，2018年中美贸易战期间，美国农 民和制造业者承担了约90%的关税成本，而此次全面加税可能使普通家庭年均支出增加逾千美元。更深 远的影响在于供应链重构——企业被迫将资源投入地缘政治避险而非效率优化，这种"逆全球化"操作最 终会反映在生产率增速的持续低迷上。世界银行的预警实则为全球经济敲响警钟：当保护主义成为主流 选择，复苏的代价将由所有人共同支付。 世界银行周二（6月10日）发布的《全球经济展望》报告为2025年全球经济描绘了一幅阴郁图景。这份 报告虽未直接点名特朗普，但字里行间透露出其激进的贸易政策正成为拖累经济的关键变量。美国经济 增长预期被大幅下调至1.4%，较2024年的2.8%近乎腰斩，与半年前2.3%的乐观预测形成鲜明对比。这 一调整背后，是特朗普政府拟对全球输美商品加征10%关税的阴影——这项政策若落地，不仅将推高美 国企业成本、加剧通胀压力，更可能引发连锁式贸易报复，进一步压缩全球经济增长空间。 全球经济的韧性正在经受考验。世界银行同步将2025年全球增速预期下调0.4个百分点至2.3%，较去年 下降0.5个百分点，距离衰退警戒线仅 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.63%, the S&P 500 by 0.55%, and the Dow Jones by 0.25%, marking new closing highs since late February and early March respectively [1] - Major tech stocks experienced upward movement, with Intel increasing nearly 8%, Tesla over 5%, and other companies like Google, Meta, and Apple showing modest gains [1] - The positive market performance was attributed to optimistic signals from U.S. Commerce Secretary, indicating progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook report casts a shadow over global economic prospects, lowering the 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating a potential slowdown not seen since the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [2] - The report warns that the 2020s could be the worst decade for economic performance since the Apollo moon landing, with global trade growth expected to drop to 1.8% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024 [2] - The World Bank anticipates that nearly 60% of developing economies will face economic slowdowns this year, a downgrade from previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration is appealing a court ruling that deemed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs illegal, arguing that halting these tariffs could lead to "irreparable economic and national security harm" [3] - A recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ordered the suspension of these tariffs, but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them shortly after [3]

Group 1 - The World Bank has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, marking one of the lowest growth rates in 17 years, only better than during the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [1] - Nearly 70% of countries have had their growth expectations lowered in the latest Global Economic Outlook report [2] - Approximately 60% of developing economies are expected to face economic slowdowns, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the January forecast [3] Group 2 - The growth rate expectation for low-income countries is now 5.3%, down by 0.4 percentage points from previous predictions [4] - The United States is projected to grow by only 1.4% this year, a reduction of 0.9 percentage points from earlier estimates [5] - Both the Eurozone and Japan have their growth rate expectations set at 0.7%, with downgrades of 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively [6] Group 3 - The World Bank warns that if trade restrictions escalate or policy uncertainty persists, economic growth may slow further, potentially leading to increased financial pressures [7] - Other risks include spillover effects from major economies' slowdowns, escalating conflicts, and extreme weather events [7] Group 4 - Analysis indicates that the return of former President Trump to the White House may lead to intensified trade actions, as his administration views free trade as detrimental to U.S. manufacturing and supply chain resilience [8] - The unpredictable nature of U.S. tariffs has disrupted markets, causing investment stagnation and supply chain chaos [8] Group 5 - The World Bank's Chief Economist, Indermit Gill, states that the current global economy is in turmoil, and without a swift change in direction, living standards may suffer significantly [9] - The report emphasizes that international discord, particularly in trade, undermines post-World War II policies aimed at reducing extreme poverty and expanding prosperity [9] - The World Bank suggests that easing trade tensions and focusing on debt control and job creation could improve global economic prospects [9]

新华财经纽约6月10日电（记者刘亚南）世界银行10日发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2025年 全球经济增长预期从今年1月份的2.7%下调至2.3%，近70%的经济体增速被下调。 值得注意的是，世界银行预计今年和明年全球贸易量增速分别为1.8%和2.4%，比1月份预测分别低1.3和 0.8个百分点。 报告预计，全球经济在2026年和2027年将出现疲弱的反弹，全球经济产出仍将低于今年1月份的预测。 新兴市场和发展中经济体在缩小与发达经济体人均收入差距和减少极端贫困方面的进展预计仍将不足， 这方面的前景很大程度上依赖于全球贸易政策的演化。 （文章来源：新华财经） 报告预计，今年发达经济体经济将增长1.2%，比此前预测低0.5个百分点。其中，美国经济增速从此前 的2.3%大幅下调至1.4%，而其2024年增速为2.8%。今年欧元区和日本经济增速均被下调至0.7%。 同时，今年新兴市场和发展中经济体预计增长3.8%，比此前预测低0.3个百分点。其中，对今年中国经 济增速预测仍维持在4.5%不变。 世界银行高级副行长兼首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔（Indermit Gill）表示："除亚洲以外的发展中世界正 在变成 ...

当地时间6日，意大利国家统计局发布2025至2026年经济前景展望，预计2025年该国经济增长0.6%， 2026年增长0.8%。报告称，美国关税政策将对全球贸易和经济增长前景产生负面影响。意大利国家统 计局预测，到2025年下半年，美国关税不确定性将有所缓解，但当前依然对企业信心构成影响。2025年 全球经济预计将出现放缓，随后在下一年趋于基本稳定，主要原因是美国贸易政策持续变化带来的不确 定性，以及严重的地缘政治紧张局势。(央视新闻) ...