News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PVC production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly week-on-week but shows a year-on-year increase, indicating mixed market conditions for the PVC industry [1]. Production and Capacity - Current PVC production capacity utilization is at 76.02%, down 1.59% week-on-week but up 1.20% year-on-year [1]. - The calcium carbide method utilization is at 77.25%, up 0.44% week-on-week and up 3.56% year-on-year [1]. - The ethylene method utilization is at 72.95%, down 6.64% week-on-week and down 5.12% year-on-year [1]. - The maintenance loss for PVC production this week is 79,320 tons, an increase of 7,620 tons from the previous period [1]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 28, PVC social inventory has increased by 5.10% to 896,300 tons, but shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.66% [1]. - In East China, inventory is at 826,800 tons, up 5.45% week-on-week and down 3.81% year-on-year [1]. - In South China, inventory is at 69,500 tons, up 1.14% week-on-week and up 62.67% year-on-year [1]. Export and Trade Dynamics - India remains the largest export destination for Chinese PVC powder, with a recent anti-dumping investigation resulting in increased tariffs of $122-232 per ton on Chinese imports [1]. - The implementation timeline for these tariffs is not yet announced, leading to increased inquiries and purchases from India [1]. Market Outlook - Newhu Futures anticipates that the operating rate will stabilize around 75% after maintenance, with weak calcium carbide costs and strong caustic soda prices providing some support [2]. - The real estate sector is experiencing slow new starts and construction, leading to low demand and increased inventory levels [2]. - Guantong Futures notes that without actual policy changes, the PVC industry faces significant pressure, with expectations of price fluctuations and potential downward trends [2].

Ferroglobe (GSM) FY Conference Summary Company Overview - Ferroglobe plc is a major producer of metallurgical products including silicon metal, ferrosilicon, and manganese alloys, with a market cap of approximately $800 million and 3,300 employees globally [2][4] - The company was formed in 2015 through a merger between Ferro Atlantica in Spain and Globe Specialty Materials in the U.S. [4] Financial Performance - Ferroglobe reported $1.6 billion in sales [4] - The company has significantly reduced its debt from $550 million in 2021 to about $100 million currently, indicating a strong balance sheet [5][24] - The company has a net cash position and began paying dividends in Q1 2024, increasing the dividend by 8% in 2025 [9][28] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources: - Silicon metal: ~50% - Ferrosilicon and silicon-based alloys: ~25% each [6][7] - Geographic revenue distribution: - North America: 35% - Europe: 40% - Rest of the world: 25% [7] Market Dynamics - The company faces challenges in the solar market due to a lack of subsidies and trade turmoil, but sees long-term opportunities in electric vehicles (EVs) [8][9] - Ferroglobe is involved in a partnership with CorShell to enhance silicon use in EV battery anodes, which offers significant advantages over graphite [8][15] - The company is the largest producer of silicon metal in Europe and the U.S., and is vertically integrated in quartz mining [10][40] Trade and Regulatory Environment - The company is affected by Chinese dumping of silicon metal into Europe, which has driven prices down by approximately 30% in the last six months [42] - Trade measures are being implemented in the U.S. and EU to protect domestic producers, with preliminary decisions expected in September and November 2025 [19][22] - The EU's internal production market share has decreased from 40% to 15% over the last five years, with a goal to return to 40% [21] Operational Efficiency - Ferroglobe has focused on operational excellence and working capital management, with a significant reduction in working capital planned [12][34] - The company has a hiring freeze in place and is focused on maintaining efficiency without sacrificing sales opportunities [56][59] Future Outlook - The company anticipates growth in the U.S. market for silicon, while Europe is expected to remain stagnant [23] - Ferroglobe is optimistic about the impact of trade measures on market share and economic metrics [38][39] - The company is positioned to benefit from the long-term growth in solar and EV markets despite current challenges [39][40] Additional Insights - Ferroglobe has invested $10 million in CorShell and $60 million in maintenance CapEx annually [29][30] - The company has flexibility in production, allowing it to switch between silicon and ferrosilicon based on market conditions [27] - The company is actively managing energy costs, with contracts covering 75% of energy needs in most countries, except Spain [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.778 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.50%, and a net profit of 396 million RMB, down 35.31% year-on-year [1][2] - The decline in sales volume and profit is attributed to insufficient domestic replacement market demand, increased international market incidents, and intensified market competition [2] - The company is expected to see a relief in cost pressures in Q3, but the EU's anti-dumping investigations may impact sales and profitability [3][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company sold 11.12 million tires, a decrease of 9.06% year-on-year, with tire business revenue at 4.75 billion RMB, down 4.36% [2] - The gross margin decreased by 3.75 percentage points to 16.03% due to high raw material costs, while the expense ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points to 7.89% [2] Sales and Market Dynamics - Q2 2025 saw tire sales of 5.85 million units, with revenue of 2.52 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3% [3] - The company experienced stable domestic sales for all-steel tires and a growth of over 15% in semi-steel tire domestic sales [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to 978 million, 1.072 billion, and 1.194 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a decrease of 11%, 9%, and 10% [4] - The target price is set at 15.86 RMB, based on a 13x PE ratio for 2025 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on imports of polypropylene corrugated boxes from China, setting a nationwide tax rate of 83.64% and an adjusted margin of 73.10% after offsetting subsidies [1] Group 1 - The preliminary ruling is part of an ongoing investigation initiated on April 7, 2025, regarding anti-dumping and countervailing duties on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China and anti-dumping duties on those from Vietnam [1] - The final ruling on anti-dumping is expected to be combined with the final ruling on countervailing duties and is scheduled for November 12, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Ministry of Finance has extended the anti-dumping measures on fluororubber products originating from or imported from China until February 26, 2026, affecting specific customs tariff numbers [1] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping investigation on fluororubber from China was initiated by India on January 2, 2018 [1] - A definitive ruling was made on December 27, 2018, leading to the imposition of anti-dumping duties ranging from $0.078 to $7.31 per kilogram starting January 28, 2019 [1] - The first sunset review investigation was launched on February 7, 2020, with a positive ruling on October 19, 2020, resulting in continued duties of $1.04 to $8.86 per kilogram from November 27, 2020 [1] Group 2: Timeline of Events - The anti-dumping measures were originally set to expire on November 27, 2025, but have now been extended to February 26, 2026 [1] - A second sunset review investigation was initiated on June 16, 2025, indicating ongoing scrutiny of the market conditions for fluororubber [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market is in a short - term strong - side fluctuating pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in the EU and lower - than - expected output in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Volume and Price Difference**: From August 14 to August 25, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was generally low, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, with the difference on August 25 being 500 [13]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 25, rapeseed meal futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while the spot price remained relatively stable. The spot price in Fujian on August 25 was 2580 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 13 to August 25, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9821 to 8066, with a continuous decline [17]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 25% [9]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9].

Core Points - The Premier of Saskatchewan, Scott Moe, plans to visit China soon to discuss the issue of Canadian canola with Chinese officials [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced temporary anti-dumping measures on imported canola from Canada, citing substantial damage to the domestic canola industry due to dumping practices [3] - Following the announcement of anti-dumping duties, reports indicate that Chinese companies have booked approximately 50,000 tons of Australian canola, marking the first time since 2020 that China has imported canola from Australia [3] - The Canadian canola industry, which has historically dominated the Chinese import market, now faces significant uncertainty as Australian canola may capture a substantial market share [3] Industry Summary - The Canadian canola sector is seeking federal government assistance in light of the recent trade challenges posed by China [3] - The imposition of anti-dumping duties by China could lead to a shift in market dynamics, with potential implications for Canadian exports to China [3] - The re-entry of Australian canola into the Chinese market raises concerns for Canadian producers about losing their dominant position [3]

Group 1 - China has placed an order for 50,000 tons of Australian canola seeds, marking the first purchase since 2020, with a price of less than $600 per ton including shipping [1] - This order signifies a thaw in trade relations, as Australia is the second-largest exporter of canola seeds, and traders anticipate more orders to follow [1] - Canadian farmers are facing significant challenges due to the loss of China as a major customer, with the Canadian government’s actions leading to increased tariffs on Canadian canola seeds [3][5] Group 2 - The Canadian government’s decision to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles has resulted in retaliatory measures from China, including high tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [3][5] - The Canadian Canola Council has acknowledged that the market for Canadian canola seeds has effectively closed, leading to financial distress for farmers [3][5] - Australia is poised to capitalize on the situation, with plans to export 150,000 to 250,000 tons of canola seeds to China once trade agreements are finalized [5][7] Group 3 - The trade dispute has escalated, with Canada facing potential losses of up to 1 billion Canadian dollars in the canola industry due to the ongoing tensions with China [7] - The political responses from Canadian officials have been criticized as insufficient, with farmers expressing frustration over the lack of effective solutions to the trade issues [5][7] - The situation highlights the harsh realities of international trade, where market dynamics prioritize economic interests over political alliances [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed import anti-dumping preliminary ruling is established, and rapeseed meal will maintain a relatively strong pattern in the medium and long term [1][41] Summary by Directory I. Preliminary Ruling on Anti-dumping Investigation of Canadian Rapeseed Imports by China - The preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of rapeseed imports is established. On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement, determining the existence of dumping and requiring importers to pay a 75.8% margin from August 14 [8][9] - There is a small probability of a turnaround between China and Canada before the final ruling. Stakeholders can submit written comments within 10 days, and Canada may send a high-level trade envoy for consultations [10] - Canadian rapeseed imports will be stagnant in the short term, and alternatives are being sought. Ports may require ships to pay the margin or return, and importers may turn to Russia, Australia, and the Middle East [11] II. Analysis of the Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Domestic Meal - Soybean meal enters the peak season of supply and demand, and its price is stable with a slight upward trend. The arrival volume of imported soybeans declined in August but increased year-on-year, oil mill soybean crush volume remained high, and soybean meal production increased in July [12][13][14] - Rapeseed meal demand is at the end of the peak season, with both bullish and bearish factors. Aquatic product demand will be concentrated in the next three months, but the annual import volume of rapeseed is insufficient, and the demand will enter the off-season after the National Day [28] III. Rapeseed Meal Maintains a Relatively Strong Pattern in the Medium and Long Term - There are uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and US soybean growing weather, as well as in the final ruling of the rapeseed anti-dumping investigation and China's dependence on soybean and rapeseed imports [41] - Key future variables include the yield per unit and total output of the new US soybean season, and the follow-up of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian trade negotiations [41] - Bullish factors include uncertainties in new US soybean weather and trade negotiations, and the peak demand season of domestic soybean meal. Bearish factors include the relatively high short-term inventory after the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the passing of the peak season of aquatic product demand, and the futures premium structure [43]

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 15, rebar and hot-rolled coil futures contracts 2510 explored lower and then rebounded. The steel futures are expected to experience a phased decline under pressure after the coking coal and coke futures reach their second peak, with a relatively small callback space but a potentially longer callback time compared to late July and early August, and are currently treated with a weakening oscillation trend [7][11] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On August 15, most rebar spot markets and some hot-rolled coil spot markets saw price declines. The prices of rebar in Chongqing, Xi'an, Changchun, Harbin, Kunming, and Shenyang dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, while those in Shanghai, Lanzhou, and Urumqi remained stable, and other major rebar markets saw price drops of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coils in Wuxi, Jinan, Changsha, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2510 contract continued to decline after a dead cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract also showed a dead cross. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts have been expanding for three consecutive trading days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - News: On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to limit or halt production from August 16 to September 3 based on weather conditions. On August 12, some coking enterprises in Shandong received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions, requiring coking enterprises to limit production by 30% - 50% from August 16 to early September. - Fundamentals: In the short term, the reduction in steel mill production has been disproven. The weekly output of the five major steel products has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products has accelerated, and their weekly apparent demand has continued to decline to a new low since early March. - Raw material market: Port iron ore inventories have increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, and the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills have returned to 21 days. The output of independent coking enterprises continues to rise, continuing the steady resumption of production rhythm since mid-July. The sixth round of price increases for coke spot has been implemented, and profits have turned positive after 12 weeks. The tender price of Mongolian coal has declined, and the Dalian Commodity Exchange has taken cooling measures for coking coal futures again. - Overall: It is expected that after the coking coal and coke futures reach their second peak, the steel futures may experience a phased decline under pressure due to the less-than-expected improvement in fundamentals. Currently, the callback space seems relatively small, but the callback time is expected to be longer than that at the end of July and early August, and it is temporarily treated as a weakening oscillation trend [10][11] 2. Industry News - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. At the end of July, the floor area of commercial housing for sale was 764.86 million square meters, a decrease of 4.62 million square meters compared to the end of June. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 572.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new low since December last year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in July were 387.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, matching the previous low set in December last year. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new low since October 2020 [12] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%; pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; steel output was 122.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. From January to July, China's crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; steel output was 860.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [12] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, the floor area of newly built commercial housing in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing remained flat, Shanghai increased by 0.3%, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. The floor area of newly built commercial housing in second - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. The floor area of newly built commercial housing in third - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the same decline as the previous month. In July, the floor area of second - hand housing in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.1%, 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.9% respectively. The floor area of second - hand housing in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [13] - The People's Bank of China announced on August 14 that to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15 through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method for a term of 6 months (182 days). There were 400 billion yuan of 3 - month and 50 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases maturing in the same month. After the People's Bank of China conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase on August 8 and will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase on the 15th, as of the 15th, the People's Bank of China has conducted an excess renewal of outright reverse repurchases totaling 300 billion yuan in August. Wang Qing, the chief macro - analyst at Orient Jincheng, believes that the People's Bank of China's outright reverse repurchase operation helps to inject medium - term liquidity and signals the continuous intensification of quantitative monetary policy tools [13] - China Iron and Steel Association data shows that in early August, the social inventory of the five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons, or 2.3%; an increase of 1.44 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, or 21.9%; and a decrease of 2.18 million tons compared to the same period last year, or 21.4% [13] - According to China Iron and Steel Association statistics, in early August, key steel enterprises produced a total of 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month. In early August, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons compared to the previous ten - day period, or 2.0%; an increase of 2.7 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, or 21.8%; basically the same as the same ten - day period last month; a decrease of 830,000 tons compared to the same ten - day period last year, or 5.2%; and a decrease of 980,000 tons compared to the same ten - day period the year before last, or 6.1% [13] - As of August 15, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.67 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to the same period last week, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the same period last month, and an increase of 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year [13] - Xinjiang Baodi Mining Co., Ltd. disclosed its semi - annual report for 2025. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 721 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.65%, while the total profit decreased by 36.19% year - on - year to 135 million yuan [13] - On August 13, 2025, the Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an announcement, making a positive final ruling on the fourth sunset review of anti - dumping duties on carbon steel pipe fittings originating from China, deciding to continue to impose an anti - dumping duty of $1.05 per kilogram on the涉案 products. The measure has been in effect since August 5, 2024, for a period of five years. The涉案 products are carbon steel pipe fittings with an outer diameter of 0.5 - 16 inches (inclusive), including elbows, tees, reducers, and caps, covering products under the TIGIE tariff number 7307.93.01 [13][14] - On August 13, 2025, the Japanese Ministry of Finance issued an announcement, deciding to initiate an anti - dumping investigation into hot - dipped galvanized steel strips and sheets originating from China and South Korea at the request of Japanese domestic manufacturers on April 28, 2025 [14] - The European Union recently stated that it hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions against Russia next month to continue to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Russia - Ukraine conflict. EU Commission spokesperson Arianna Podesta detailed the timeline for the next round of measures against Russia at a daily press conference in Brussels on Thursday but did not disclose the specific content of the plan. The EU approved a series of measures in July [14] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and the October contracts [15][17][21]