风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 非完全进化体 来源：雪球 过去几年 ， 我们部分持仓基于低市盈率 、 较高股息率筛选细分行业竞争格局稳固的中小市值龙 头公司进行投资 。 即便同样承受了经济景气回落的压力 ， 但因买得足够便宜 ， 整体还是获得 了一定相对收益 。 基本 " 躲开 " 了这一期间 ， 消费 、 互联网 、 医药 、 新能源等领域核心 资产从估值高位持续回落的过程 。 去年下半年以来 ， 内外部环境冲击及不确定性进一步加剧 。 缺少足够产业链地位的中小市值公 司 ， 即便作为某一细分行业的龙头 ， 盈利的稳定性也经常遭受各种考验 。 在行业竞争加剧与 外部利空冲击下 ， 公司治理中的各种问题也更容易暴露出来 。 即便这些公司的管理层相比国内大多数企业已经属于最优秀的一批 。 但应知道 ， 中国绝大多数 行业龙头公司的发展历程也才10-20年 。 有很多问题与考验尚未遭遇 ， 最典型的诸如应对官僚 体系问题 、 股权架构制约问题 、 二代接班及职业经理人体系建立 、 全球化过程中应对各类政 策风险的能力 ， 包括公平公开的对待各类投资者的 ...

Market Overview - The national real estate market is showing a significant cooling trend, with new home transactions in 26 key cities down 14% compared to March, remaining flat year-on-year [1] - The second-hand housing market is even more sluggish, with transaction volumes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen dropping between 8% to 40% in the first 20 days of April [1][3] - In Hangzhou, transactions plummeted from 12,400 units in March to 7,505 units, a nearly 40% decline [1] Price Trends - The average second-hand home prices in 100 cities fell by 0.69% month-on-month, with 19 cities, including Huai'an and Yancheng, experiencing declines exceeding 1% [3] - First-tier cities saw a slight increase in new home prices by 0.37%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decrease of 0.11% [3] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "two extremes" scenario, reflecting buyers' preference for core assets and caution towards non-core areas [3] - The ongoing US-China trade war poses significant challenges, with cities heavily reliant on exports seeing a 10% week-on-week drop in second-hand home transactions, while those less reliant on exports experienced a 12% increase [3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Since the introduction of the 926 policy last year, no strong stimulus measures have been implemented for nearly seven months, with the latest political meeting emphasizing the need for long-term stability [4] - Some cities, like Nanjing and Shanghai, are beginning to test policy limits by cracking down on fake listings and misleading information to stabilize market expectations [5] Economic Recommendations - Nomura's chief economist suggests three key directions: increasing fiscal subsidies, promoting real estate industry clearing, and stabilizing export expectations through technological innovation [6] - Positive signals are emerging in some cities, such as Shenzhen, where new home transactions increased by 68% year-on-year, indicating continued attractiveness of core assets [6] Future Outlook - The real estate market is currently facing "threefold pressure": data cooling, trade friction, and policy observation [6] - Despite these challenges, there are indications that the market is not in a state of complete recession, as evidenced by policy rumors and strong sales of improvement projects in core cities [6] - For buyers, focusing on long-term value in cities with population inflow, industrial support, and favorable policies is crucial for resilience in the market cycle [6]

□本报记者 魏昭宇 近期，随着A股市场震荡加剧，核心资产的配置价值愈发受到关注。数据显示，今年二季度以来，以沪 深300为代表的核心指数相关ETF频获资金青睐，机构与个人投资者对核心资产的热情持续升温。在此 背景下，光大保德信基金推出了光大保德信沪深300指数增强型证券投资基金，拟由朱剑涛担任基金经 理。 朱剑涛在近日接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，伴随新兴产业发展和每半年一次的成分股调整，沪深 300指数持续吸纳具有优质成长空间的个股，在动态优化过程中实现行业分布日趋均衡。整体来看，沪 深300指数成分股凭借优良的基本面和稳定的盈利能力，具备较强的周期穿越能力。 构建差异化量化竞争力 记者了解到，朱剑涛已经深耕量化研究领域16年之久，多元化的从业经历使其对量化投资的理解日趋深 入。公开资料显示，朱剑涛从业经历覆盖卖方、量化私募、量化公募，曾担任东方证券量化首席分析 师、数量金融创新实验室负责人、东证衍生品研究院副院长等，在东方证券任职期间带领团队撰写了 《因子选股系列研究》等近百篇专题报告，在卖方研究机构中较早搭建了完整的量化投资框架，2024年 5月开始担任光大保德信量化股票、光大保德信一带一路基金的基金经 ...

2025年4月23日，A股三大指数红盘震荡，中证A500指数午后持续走强，成分股卫星化学涨停，新易 盛、杰瑞股份、巨星科技、派能科技等个股涨幅居前。 摩根中证A500增强策略ETF正式发行，是完善摩根"A系列"产品版图的重要一环，摩根资产管理中国指 数及量化投资团队将围绕中证"A系列"指数，打造从被动跟踪到量化增强的产品链条，为投资者提供多 样化的选择，塑造更强的摩根"A系列"。 公告显示，摩根资产管理旗下摩根中证A500增强策略ETF（认购代码：563553）于4月21日起正式发 行，募集期为2025年4月21日至4月30日，投资者可选择网上现金认购、网下现金认购2种方式。 中信证券认为，我国的新一轮内需刺激或打开宏观向上的弹性空间，这种宏观环境更有利于核心资产。 从相对盈利优势来看，核心资产的ROE、营收增速和净利润率都已经提前于全A非金融板块出现拐点， 展现出极强的经营韧性。从长线资金定价看，今年以来不少A股的蓝筹公司赴港上市，全球机构投资者 对这些优质公司的追捧可能会给国内投资者以示范，有利于重塑优质核心资产的估值体系。 招商证券认为,当前市场在"平准"力量的作用下行风险可控，在市场明显缩量震荡且业绩 ...

隔夜美股三大股指集体收涨超2%，中概指数涨3.69%。美国总统表示，自己无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，并对贸易冲突发表了一些软化立场的言论；美财长 早些时候也表示，贸易冲突的现状不可持续。 昨日（4月22日），中证A500指数ETF（563880）放量收平，技术面上看，MACD白线上冲，红柱持续扩大，释放积极信号。 昨日（4月22日），中证A500指数ETF（563880）标的指数跌0.18%。中油资本、立昂微10cm涨停，柏楚电子涨超6%，信立泰、洛阳钼业涨超4%，比亚迪、 宁德时代涨超1%，光线传媒重挫跌超9%，胜宏科技跌超7%，立讯精密、海光信息等跟跌。 【增量政策打开宏观向上空间，或有利于核心资产】 中信证券认为，我国的新一轮内需刺激或打开宏观向上的弹性空间，这种宏观环境更有利于核心资产。从相对盈利优势来看，核心资产的ROE、营收增速和 净利润率都已经提前于全A非金融板块出现拐点，展现出极强的经营韧性。从长线资金定价看，今年以来不少A股的蓝筹公司赴港上市，全球机构投资者对 这些优质公司的追捧可能会给国内投资者以示范，有利于重塑优质核心资产的估值体系。从市场生态变化看，即将落地的公募基金改革举措通过利益机制 ...

在经历上周市场大幅震荡后，当前行情或进入了以关税政策博弈为核心特征的新阶段。多家机构分析指出，鉴于投资者 情绪已得到较充分释放、市场逆势承接资金充裕，叠加持续强化的政策托底预期，以及A股核心资产目前显著低估的估 值优势，核心资产或再度迎来做多的重要时间窗口。 资金也在持续加仓规模大、流动性好、低费率的核心资产。据Wind数据，截至上周末，中证A500ETF龙头（563800） 连续三周获净买入，年内日均成交额超22亿元，管理费率仅为0.15%，资金关注度高。 中证A500ETF龙头（563800）跟踪中证A500指数，指数汇聚了各细分行业龙头，成分股基本面扎实，兼具盈利质量与 成长性。开源证券表示，中证A500结合了"核心资产"和"新质生产力"的特点，在业绩和股价上更具成长性。截至4月13 日，中证A500指数最新PE估值为13.93倍，处于上市以来38.3%的历史偏低位置。 展望后市，中金公司最新观点表示，当前市场可能对关税本身的数字逐渐"脱敏"，更多转向关注对增长的实质影响。若 投资者仓位已经明显下调或挪至分红板块，当前这一点位即可分批低吸；如果仓位依然较高，也可以留出更多余地后续 吸纳。 中证A500E ...

与全市场同类产品比，表现也十分突出。特别是在刚过去的2024年，海富通沪深300指数增强A类份额 全年收益率高达22.20%，在全市场沪深300指数增强基金中排名中录得第一，业绩表现突出；近三年维 度看，截至今年3月末，该产品A类份额（004513）实现了7.81%的收益率，远超同期业绩比较基准 的-7.31%，在全市场沪深300指数增强基金中排名同样录得第一。 基金份额上看，2024年海富通沪深300指数增强基金A类、C类份额合计增加19.71亿份，规模合计增加 24.36亿元。 近期，美国所谓"对等关税"引发海外市场剧烈震荡。美股剧烈波动，美东时间4月10日，美国股市在经 历周三的大幅上涨后迅速陷入调整，三大股指均以大幅下跌收盘。与此同时，不仅30年期美债收益率正 开始重新向5%关口迈进，美元也遭遇了罕见的断崖式暴跌，周五盘初已迅速跌破了100大关。 国内市场看，据媒体报道，本周以来，A股市场迎来声势浩大的"回购增持潮"。据统计，最近三个交易 日内（4月7日—4月9日）拟回购金额上限加增持金额上限，两项合计金额高达803.06亿元，较今年3月 全月的199.4亿元规模激增逾三倍。此次"回购增持潮"是政策引 ...

对等关税发酵，全球资产明显波动，不确定性之下余波未定。4月7日开盘，A股三大股指全线下行，上证指数跌逾 6%，深证成指跌近8%，创业板指跌超9％。盘面上A500等核心资产韧性凸显。 【对国内基本面有何影响？】 通过数据计算，本次对等关税后，今年美国已累计对华加征54%的关税，再叠加此前已加关税，美国对华关税税率可 能达到60%以上，高于市场预期的上沿位置。 根据国联证券分析，假设对美出口下降一半甚至更多（对美出口占中国总出口15%），考虑全球其他需求同步受损， 中国总出口下降10%到20%，相当于2008年金融危机、2020年疫情的最大冲击水平。 从相对盈利优势来看，核心资产的营收增速和净利润率都已经提前于全A非金融板块出现拐点，展现出极强的经营韧 性。 华创证券认为，基于当前环境下，中国相较于全球其他经济体存三大相对优势： 一是当前国内财政货币仍有明显空间，2024年底以来央行已多次公开表示"择机降准降息"，可期待二季度降息窗口打 开。 二是近期对于支持民营经济信号明显增强，政策积极释放支持民营经济发展信号。 三是相比其他国家，中国在应对美方的关税措施上有充分经验，18年以来对美出口依赖度已大幅降低，中国出 ...

Core Views - The ongoing tariff situation remains uncertain, with recession expectations accelerating the shift to recession trading, potentially leading to synchronized cycles between China and the US [1] - Short-term focus should be on core assets, with a recommendation to concentrate on sectors such as self-sufficiency, military industry, domestic demand, and dividends [1][5] - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump significantly exceeds expectations, with a potential 34% tariff on China impacting exports and GDP growth [2][5] Economic Impact - The anticipated 54% increase in tariffs since Trump's presidency could reduce China's export growth by 8.2 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points if the tariffs remain in place throughout the year [2] - Domestic policies are expected to respond with counter-cyclical measures to ensure stable economic development [2][5] Sector Analysis - Core assets are expected to outperform, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate resilience and competitive advantages, particularly in manufacturing and technology [1][5] - The agricultural sector may benefit from rising prices due to retaliatory measures, while the machinery sector should focus on resilient end-demand and competitive supply structures [5] - The banking sector is showing defensive value amid rising market volatility, with stable fundamentals expected to support performance [18] Market Strategy - The strategy suggests a shift towards low-valuation sectors with strong earnings certainty, particularly in consumer themes, agriculture, and semiconductor materials [9] - The focus on domestic consumption and self-sufficiency is emphasized as external pressures increase [9] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for investment in core assets as the market adjusts to external shocks, with a recommendation for a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy [1] - The energy sector, particularly airlines, is expected to see improved margins due to falling oil prices, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [13]

Core Views - The uncertainty surrounding tariff developments persists, but the market is accelerating its shift towards recession trading as expectations of a downturn rise. The synchronization of the economic cycles between China and the U.S. may occur sooner than anticipated [1][5] Tariff Policy and Market Impact - The current tariff policy is seen as a negotiation tactic by the U.S., applying extreme pressure on other countries to achieve a 10% tariff increase while potentially allowing for exemptions in certain industries. This strategy may lead to a reduction in actual tariffs imposed by many countries [3] - China's retaliatory tariff measures are expected to drive domestic substitution in high-end manufacturing and consumer sectors, particularly for products heavily reliant on U.S. imports [3][4] Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - Investors are likely to lower their risk appetite in the short term, maintaining a framework focused on recession expectations. The uncertainty from the broad and high tariffs is expected to increase market volatility [4][6] - The transition from recession expectations to actual recession trading is becoming more probable, with key indicators such as U.S. corporate earnings per share (EPS) showing signs of decline [6][8] Economic Synchronization and Policy Response - The synchronization of economic cycles between China and the U.S. may lead to an earlier implementation of stimulus policies in China, with significant impacts on GDP growth and exports due to increased tariffs [7][8] - The anticipated window for investment opportunities may also arrive sooner, coinciding with external shocks and policy responses [8] Core Asset Investment Outlook - Core assets are expected to gain an advantage as the economic policy cycles align, with a focus on companies exhibiting strong operational resilience and growth potential. The GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy is projected to outperform [9][10] - Short-term investment recommendations include sectors with pricing power and resilience to geopolitical disruptions, such as AI, precision optics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [11][12] Long-term Investment Trends - Long-term focus should be on global manufacturing demand recovery and the trend of Chinese technology going abroad, as geopolitical uncertainties drive countries to invest in energy, defense, and technology sectors [13]