第一性原理
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微软CEO最新对话“AI三巨头”:奥特曼、马斯克、黄仁勋都说了什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 08:57
Group 1 - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced the entry into the era of AI agents at the Microsoft Build conference, emphasizing a vision of an open agent network that collaborates across personal, organizational, and business processes [2] - Microsoft showcased over 50 new products and services related to AI agents, including new models, programming agents, and enterprise-level agents, while embracing open protocols like MCP [2] - The collaboration among major tech leaders, including OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, Tesla's CEO Elon Musk, and NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang, is becoming increasingly tight for the common goal of AI development [2] Group 2 - OpenAI's Codex, a programming agent capable of handling multiple development tasks simultaneously, represents a significant shift in software engineering paradigms [3][5] - Altman highlighted that the integration of Codex with GitHub will allow developers to assign complex tasks to a virtual teammate, enhancing the overall development process [5] - Future models are expected to become smarter and easier to use, with automatic model selection and improved reliability [5] Group 3 - Musk discussed the integration of his xAI company's Grok models into Microsoft's Azure AI Foundry, emphasizing the importance of adhering to physical laws in AI model development [7][9] - Grok's focus is on using first principles reasoning to enhance AI's predictive capabilities, particularly in customer service applications at Tesla and SpaceX [12] - Musk stressed the necessity of aligning AI models with real-world physics to ensure accuracy and safety in applications like autonomous driving [11][12] Group 4 - NVIDIA's Jensen Huang highlighted the rapid technological advancements, noting a 40-fold increase in performance over two years due to collaborative innovations between NVIDIA and Microsoft [13][15] - The partnership aims to provide more intelligence through efficient AI infrastructure, with a focus on the synergy between hardware and software innovations [15][16] - Huang emphasized the importance of a stable software ecosystem to ensure long-term value for developers and customers, while also pushing for continuous innovation in both hardware and software [16]
对话马振山:国际车企不是慢 而是在排兵布阵等待时机“出手”
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-05-16 18:28
"品牌必须有一以贯之的使命、愿景和价值观,它不能随波逐流,也不能为了一时流行就改变方向。"马振山呼吁,国内车企应以"第一性原理"去反思品牌建 设,理解消费者为什么要选择一台车、选择这个品牌。 谈及中国品牌的发展现状,马振山认为,中国车企在智能化、电动化方面虽然走在前列,但仍需向外资品牌虚心学习。他以大众集团和丰田汽车为例指出, 外资车企已明确智能化路线图,并灵活运用原有积淀、本土适配和合作伙伴的力量。"他们并不是反应慢,而是等着看你的路怎么走,产业链是否稳固,用 户接受度如何,然后再排兵布阵。" 马振山也针对营销领域谈及了他的看法。他认为,面对激烈的市场竞争,营销已不再是简单的传播与促销,而是从"种草到收割"的系统性运作。他认为,应 借助小红书、抖音等新媒体平台的内容属性,精准完成产品孵化、上市到换代的全周期规划,同时对热点与负面信息进行敏捷响应。 "真正优秀的营销,需要体系化的作战策略和学科知识支撑。每个平台都有不同打法,小红书讲审美、抖音讲互动、视频号讲生态,不能一套打法通吃。" 汽车出海是当前各大车企发力的重点方向。谈及当前形势下的汽车"出海",马振山直言:"这是一个不得不做出的选择。"他指出,中国市场 ...
书评丨本土商业管理观念的突围
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-16 17:45
增长的超级方法》,对于书中提出的主要观点,印象深刻: 刘中露 当西蒙于1978年凭借"满意就是最优决策"而获得诺贝尔经济学奖时,惊掉了许多大师的下巴。当时很多 人对西蒙的获奖不以为然,其实是低估了西蒙的这个理论对社会实践、对经济决策的重要作用。 因为在传统决策理论中,"最优化"的理论把决策者假设为完全理性的人,以"绝对的理性"为指导,按最 优化准则行事。但是,处于复杂多变环境中的企业和决策者,要对未来做出"绝对理性"的判断是不可能 的。 当处在瞬息万变的社会,在"快鱼吃慢鱼"的商业竞争中,决策者根本不可能在短时间找到所谓的最优的 资源,也不可能实施最好的方案,并获得最好的效益,如果决策者以最优作为指导原则,势必延误"战 机",势必事倍功半。西蒙"满意就是最优决策"包涵的"有限理性"和"满意度",打破了以往对"绝对理 性"的迷思,让在迷雾中摸索前行的管理者找到亮光。大道至简,大工不巧,看似简单的观念,却让复 杂的管理变得简单高效,满意就是最优的决策。多年之后,人们才发现西蒙"满意就是最优决策"的观 点,对社会经济、企业管理都有如此大的推动作用。 好的观念会对社会经济产生积极的影响。当下,随着经济环境和市场需求的 ...
马斯克,活该成功!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 14:23
内容来源:本文转载自微信公众号 混沌学园,笔记侠经授权转载。转载请联系原公众号授权。 分享嘉宾:李善友 ,混沌创办人。 责编| 柒 排版| 沐言 第 8951篇深度好文:11286| 25分钟阅读 商业思维 笔记君说: "地球上所有的生命都将被太阳摧毁!" 马斯克,这位科技与商业领域的传奇人物,又对世界发出了警告。 为什么他总想把人类送上火星? 做特斯拉、SpaceX,他的创业动机究竟是什么? 为什么他不会因为接连的失败而内耗? 今天这篇文章,我们就来深度分析马斯克创业背后的使命和精神力量,帮助创业者找回使命,重新点燃内心的力量。 一、马斯克的创业史 今天,我想通过讲案例的方式,让理念的力量与大家共鸣,这个案例大家特别熟悉,是马斯克的SpaceX项目。 在讲这个案例之前,先简单回顾一下马斯克的创业史,可谓英雄之旅。 ① 1984年:马斯克13岁,第一次创业,写了一个游戏程序—Blaster,卖给了一家杂志社后,赚了500美金。 ② 1995年:马斯克24岁,第二次创业,创立地图导航网站Zip 2,公司成立董事会后被排挤出局,赚了2200万美元。 如果一个人的心灵世界比商业世界小,我们就会被金钱、技术所努役、工 ...
李善友:马斯克们永远不会与怯懦灵魂为伍,那些人不懂胜利更不懂失败
混沌学园· 2025-04-28 07:37
2025年4月26日,2025年李善友开年大课暨混沌·AI创新院开学典礼仍在继续。 Day2的主题是"人类的尊严",在上午大课中,教授真诚说道: 人之为人最后的尊严 ,是人拥有真理念。 以下是李善友教授大课的笔记内容。 讲者 |李善友 昨天,我们追问了一个问题: AI时代,人之为人不能被AI夺走的那一点点是什么?那是人之为人最后的尊严。 如果想不清楚这个问题,很可能我们会被AI合并同类项。 今天,我想追问一个更积极的问题:AI时代,人类比AI多一点点的那个东西是什么?我们强过AI、高于AI的是什么? 我想只有一样东西: 只有在心流中,人的智性超越理性智商,也超越AI智能。在心流中的真理念焕发出来的时候,我们会热爱。这时候,我们可以反过来调用 AI去实现我们的理想。 当真理念焕发出来的时候,我们会真热爱。这时候,我们可以反过来调用AI去实现我们的理想。 这正是今天我要跟大家分享的—— 理念的力量 马斯克的创业史 我想通过讲案例的方式,让理念的力量与大家共鸣,这个案例大家特别熟悉,是马斯克的SpaceX项目,一个伟大的案例。 在讲这个案例之前,我们先简单回顾一下马斯克的创业史,可谓英雄之旅。 马斯克的创业动机是什 ...
哪一种人能当一把手?看任正非就懂了:必须是能提纲挈领的明白人
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 07:34
大海航行靠舵手,从古至今,凡是能够带队伍打胜仗的人必须是有极高要求的,否则队伍就散了。 比如你去创业做老板,你需要告诉员工朝哪个方向努力才是正确的,这就像是打粮食,能够有收益才能持续。否则员工看跟着你既没有成就感,也没有前 途,他们就会"良禽择木而栖"。 打胜仗是最好的团建,也是树立老板权威和提升员工对公司归属感的最好方式。 所以做老板是有压力的,不仅仅是因为你有钱。事实上,如果下属和员工打心底觉得你不行,那他们哪怕从你这里领很高的薪水,他们也不会尊重你。 这样的上下级关系就很麻烦,不是什么人都能当一把手的。 哪一种人能当一把手?看任正非就懂了:必须是能提纲挈领的明白人 首先看任正非是如何看管理干部选拔的,"我们把权力下放给最明白、最有责任心的人,让他们对流程进行例行管理。" 注意这两个条件,什么叫"最明白",就是说心里有数,这个人必须对要做的工作非常懂,既知其然又知其所以然。因此,我们就能理解"让听得到炮声的人 呼叫炮火"的内涵了。 不管是任正非还是其他老板,都不会喜欢那种"以其昏昏使人昭昭"的管理者。 什么叫"最有责任心"?就是说这个事不仅仅是要做完,还要做好,对工作有责任感,这样的管理干部才能让下面的人 ...
刘煜辉最新发声再谈“东升西落”:珍惜每一次激烈博弈和碰撞中,中国核心资产“倒车接人”的机会
聪明投资者· 2025-04-20 14:34
"从逻辑上推演,我坚定相信,只有'东升西落',中或最赢,没有其他结果。 " "美联储代表的是犹太资本和金融资本利益,而犹太金融资本在西方意识形态中一定占据左翼,而不是 右翼。 所以,在左右翼资深对决的时代背景下,去看在美元资产遭到巨大抛售、美元信用受到危机时,美联储 仍然采取袖手旁观的态度,是可以理解的。" " 中国 未来的 方略主要有几点 :更加开放,更加平衡,更加市场化。" 以上是中国首席经济学家论坛理事 刘煜辉 在今 天(4月20日)宁波银行私人银行投资策略会中分享的 最新观点。 对于所有事件的分析,都要结合背景回到最底层的目标,去解构其行为逻辑。 刘煜辉用了近两个小时,将特朗普发动的这场仅仅一个星期就已经"到顶"的关税战进行了详细梳理。 从大背景来看,刘煜辉表示这是美西方一场史无前例的"党争"。 特朗普作为西方政治规则下的政治人物,其真实有效的政治时间可能只有一年半,因此, 他的第一性 目标是通过"关税战"向选票基本盘展现承诺,以及巩固权力,并在中选前证明他所代表的右翼势力在美 国权力系统中已经站稳脚跟。 但是,刘煜辉强调,真正决定社会走向的是其背后的资本意志。 因此,从第一性原理角度出发,最终还是要 ...
500Wh/kg电池竞速:锂金属电池挑战全固态共识?(下)
高工锂电· 2025-04-05 10:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competition between lithium metal batteries and sulfide solid-state batteries, highlighting the rapid advancements in lithium metal technology, particularly in electric aviation, while addressing the challenges faced by solid-state routes [1]. Summary by Sections Challenges and Solutions - Lithium metal batteries must overcome two main challenges: safety issues due to dendrite formation during charging, and cycle life challenges caused by irreversible side reactions between lithium metal and electrolyte [2]. - Dendrite growth can lead to internal short circuits and thermal runaway, while side reactions consume active lithium and electrolyte, resulting in rapid capacity decay [2]. Technical Strategies - The industry has explored three main strategies to address dendrite issues: 1. **Electrolyte Design**: This includes developing high-concentration or locally concentrated liquid electrolytes and solid electrolyte solutions [3]. 2. **Structured Lithium Metal Anodes**: Creating a three-dimensional conductive framework for lithium to guide uniform deposition, though this requires advanced material preparation and welding techniques [6]. 3. **Protective Layers**: Adding stable interfaces on lithium metal surfaces to enhance stability, although these layers may degrade over time [6]. Manufacturing Challenges - The soft and sticky nature of lithium metal poses significant challenges for traditional battery manufacturing processes, particularly in producing ultra-thin lithium foils [8]. - Current industrial rolling techniques can only process lithium foils thicker than 50 μm, making it difficult to achieve the desired thinness without breakage [9]. Industry Innovations - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium have achieved breakthroughs in mass production of ultra-thin lithium foils, capable of widths up to 300 mm and thicknesses down to 3 microns, indicating a move towards scalable and customized solutions [10]. - Various innovative manufacturing methods are being explored, including vapor deposition techniques that can produce high-quality lithium films [11]. Emerging Concepts - The concept of "anodeless" batteries is gaining traction, with companies like QuantumScape leading the way. This design aims to reduce lithium usage and costs while maximizing energy density [12]. - QuantumScape claims its anodeless solid-state battery can achieve over 1000 charge-discharge cycles while maintaining 95% capacity [13]. Market Dynamics - The demand for high energy density solutions, particularly in emerging fields like eVTOL, is driving the rapid development of lithium metal batteries, which may not align with the traditional solid-state roadmap [16]. - The industry's focus on sulfide solid electrolytes may create a path dependency that underestimates the potential of advanced liquid electrolytes and innovative designs like "anodeless" batteries [16]. Historical Context - Lithium metal batteries are experiencing a renaissance, building on advancements in materials science and manufacturing processes that address historical challenges of safety and cycle life [18]. - The evolution of lithium metal battery technology reflects a non-linear progression, with current developments rooted in historical research dating back to the 1970s [17].
总有人觉得VC不配谈真问题 |Findme
投中网· 2025-04-04 06:36
东四十条资本 . 聚焦股权投资行业人物、事件、数据、研究、政策解读,提供专业视角和深度洞见 | 创投圈有趣的灵魂 将投中网设为"星标⭐",第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于东四十条资本 ,作者董师傅 价值观哪去了? 作者丨董师傅 来源丨东四十条资本 各位好,findme更新一期。刚才看见傅盛发视频支持朱啸虎,推荐大家看看,里边有几句话讲得挺好的,就是机器人公司把"做人形","具身智能"当成 任务了,不做就混不下去,但实际的场景,没有人做啊,连瓶水都拿不稳,估值炒这么高,有啥好处呢? 我忽然想起来去年投中年会他俩那个panel,结束的时候我说明年甭管混得好是不好,两位都回来坐坐,咱再聊一期,他俩也答应了,但眼看4.16号今年 大会要开了,阴差阳错可能凑不成局,可惜了的。 但这话题远远没完。我今天再谈它,主要是觉得,"人形机器人的泡沫"它是"真问题",就是跟所谓"假问题"相对的"真问题",从商业价值还是公共价值 上,它都值得大谈特谈,但很多人基于社会角色,认为VC不配谈这种问题。 你看投中网评论区就知道了。遍地是喷子,有一个很蠢的说法,就是认为朱啸虎是做投资的,即便你笃定你说的是真话,你也没权利说。这话非常操 ...
“黄仁勋最信赖的作者”深度交流:英伟达传奇背后以及AI的下一步
聪明投资者· 2025-04-02 03:23
Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of Nvidia as a leading company in the AI sector, driven by its CEO Jensen Huang's visionary leadership and innovative strategies [1][7][17] - It highlights Huang's unique ability to attract top talent and his commitment to pushing the boundaries of technology [2][3][57] Group 1: Jensen Huang's Leadership and Vision - Huang is portrayed as a technical genius with a passion for computer technology, which has driven Nvidia's advancements from 3D graphics to AI [2][3] - His leadership style involves inspiring employees with a vision of technological dreams rather than just financial incentives, fostering loyalty even during tough times [3][57] - Huang's approach to management includes setting ambitious goals and encouraging a culture of tackling complex challenges, which has been crucial for Nvidia's success [13][20] Group 2: Nvidia's Technological Innovations - Nvidia's success is attributed to the unexpected combination of neural networks and parallel computing, which were previously considered failures [8][10] - The development of the CUDA platform allowed Nvidia to transform its graphics cards into powerful computing tools for scientists, leading to significant advancements in AI [11][12] - Huang's decision to pivot Nvidia from a graphics company to an AI company in 2014 was a pivotal moment that positioned the company as a leader in the AI field [16][17] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Nvidia currently holds over 90% of the AI hardware market, reflecting its dominance in the sector [18] - The company is investing in the "Omni-verse" project, which aims to create a massive simulation environment for training robots, indicating its forward-looking strategy [66][68] - The energy demands of AI technologies pose a significant challenge, with predictions that data centers could consume 15% of the U.S. electricity by 2028, highlighting the need for investment in energy infrastructure [70][72] Group 4: Lessons from Huang's Experience - Huang's concept of "zero billion markets" emphasizes investing in unproven markets to reduce competition and build unique platforms [19] - The "light-speed" management philosophy encourages rapid product development, allowing Nvidia to outpace competitors [20][21] - Huang's focus on first principles thinking drives Nvidia's decisions, ensuring the company remains at the forefront of technological advancements [22][23] Group 5: The Future of AI and Investment Opportunities - The article discusses the dual perspectives on AI's future, with some viewing it as a transformative force for good, while others express concerns about potential risks [59][60] - The ongoing investment in AI technologies is seen as critical, with the next few years being crucial for demonstrating AI's value in everyday applications [63][64] - The energy supply challenges present an investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the AI theme in the coming years [73]