值此十四五收官、十五五开局之际，各个企业都在 制定十五五规划 。笔者注意到有些企业特别专 注于自动驾驶领域，窃以为 思路还可以再开阔一些 。特提出一些粗浅想法，作为引玉之砖。 十四五的实践证明，与世界各大汽车强国相比， 我国汽车产业有特大市场规模优势，最全产业链 优势，成本与效率的优势，新技术创新资源多和创新环境好的优势，集中力量办大事的体制机制优势， 我们应该有能建成汽车强国和引领世界汽车产业发展的自信。所以我们 一要以更开放的胸怀看待世界 汽车产业发展，二在制定十五五规划时，创新发展的眼界要更开阔。 二、十五五中国汽车产业技术创新的关注点的建议。 除继续做好智能网联领域的创新外，还建议业界同仁关注： 1、工艺与材料领域。 前文所述的车身热成型高强钢结构件和特斯拉首创的大型压铸铝制底盘件，就属于这一范围。 与 汽车的结构与性能相比，工艺和材料领域技术进步一直相对缓慢， 轿车车身结构还是基于100年前技术 形成的用薄钢板点连接工艺制成，对于汽车车身以刚度而不以强度为先的使用条件，应该不是最佳方 案，有很大的创新发展余地。可能有些企业领导认为，从历史经验看工艺和材料的技术进步总体上比较 缓慢，而且是大家共用，可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent serious accident involving a vehicle with an intelligent driving system highlights the safety issues and deficiencies in current autonomous driving technologies, necessitating a reevaluation of industry standards and practices [1] Group 1: Issues Identified - The public testing primarily involved systems with L3 capabilities, which do not meet the reliability requirements for L3 but are marketed as L2 systems, leading to consumer confusion [1][5] - The testing revealed that manufacturers generally lack the capability to handle long-tail scenarios, with deficiencies in both hardware and software aspects of intelligent driving systems [2] - There is a significant limitation in the pre-market testing of mass-produced vehicles, as manufacturers rely heavily on simulation and road testing without adequate performance testing in dangerous conditions [3] Group 2: Lack of Standards - The absence of unified testing standards and parameters, such as following distance and speed settings, complicates fair comparisons between different autonomous driving systems [4] Group 3: Recommendations - It is essential to standardize the understanding of autonomous driving function classifications to prevent misleading marketing and user misuse [5][6] - Accelerating the establishment of standards for L2/L3 systems is crucial, as current standards lag behind industry needs [7] - Regulatory bodies should clarify testing requirements and ensure comprehensive testing methods are employed, especially in hazardous scenarios [8] - The industry should adopt integrated vehicle-road-cloud systems to enhance the performance of autonomous driving systems in complex environments [9] - A centralized data platform should be developed to facilitate the collection and sharing of high-quality training and testing data across different vehicle models and road conditions [10] - Manufacturers must conduct more extensive testing under extreme conditions to ensure safety standards are met beyond the minimum requirements [11] - Immediate rectification of hidden door handle designs is recommended to enhance public safety, regardless of pending regulations [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent serious accident involving an intelligent driving system vehicle highlights the safety issues and deficiencies in current automotive intelligent driving systems, particularly in the context of L2 and L3 classifications [1][2][4]. Group 1: Issues Identified - The public testing primarily involved systems with L3 capabilities, which do not meet the reliability requirements for L3 classification, leading to confusion in the market regarding L2 and L3 definitions [1][2]. - The testing revealed that manufacturers generally lack the capability to handle long-tail scenarios, with deficiencies in both hardware and software aspects of intelligent driving systems [2][3]. - There is a significant limitation in the testing and validation of mass-produced vehicles before market launch, as manufacturers rely heavily on simulation and road testing without adequate performance testing in dangerous conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Recommendations - It is essential to standardize the understanding of autonomous driving function classifications to prevent misleading marketing and user misuse [5][6]. - The industry must accelerate the development of standards for L2 and L3 systems, ensuring that testing and evaluation methods are unified and scientifically sound [7][8]. - Regulatory bodies should clarify testing requirements and ensure comprehensive testing methods are applied, particularly in hazardous scenarios [8][9]. - The industry should adopt integrated vehicle-road-cloud systems to enhance the performance of autonomous driving systems, addressing the limitations of single-vehicle perception [9][10]. - A data platform should be established to facilitate the collection and sharing of high-quality scenario data, which is crucial for improving the training and testing of intelligent driving systems [10][11]. - Manufacturers should conduct more extensive testing under extreme conditions to ensure that safety standards are not just met but exceeded [11][12]. - Immediate rectification of hidden door handle designs is recommended to enhance safety, regardless of pending regulatory changes [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant contributions of Fu Yu Wu to the development of China's automotive industry over the past fifty years, emphasizing his dedication, innovative spirit, and the importance of industry associations in fostering growth and talent [1][3]. Group 1: Contributions to the Automotive Industry - Fu Yu Wu has a profound sense of patriotism and has consistently prioritized industry development, leading to substantial achievements in the automotive sector [1]. - His career spans over 20 years in enterprises, 10 years in government, and 17 years in industry associations, where he played a pivotal role in advancing technology and establishing a complete automotive industrial system in Harbin [1]. - Under his leadership, the China Automotive Engineering Society became a top-tier industry organization, significantly contributing to the development of China's automotive industry [1][4]. Group 2: Importance of Industry Associations - The work of industry associations is crucial for the automotive sector, yet many stakeholders underestimate their significance, often viewing them as burdensome [3]. - Fu Yu Wu's initiatives, such as forming alliances for lightweight vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles, have driven technological advancements in the industry [4]. - The annual meetings organized by the automotive engineering society have grown from hundreds to thousands of participants, establishing them as major industry events [4]. Group 3: Talent Development and Innovation - Fu Yu Wu has been instrumental in cultivating talent within the automotive industry, establishing awards and competitions to recognize contributions and encourage innovation [4][5]. - The ongoing efforts to elevate automotive studies to a primary discipline reflect the commitment to enhancing the industry's academic standing and supporting future developments in smart and connected vehicles [6]. Group 4: Historical Significance - Fu Yu Wu's book serves as a historical account of the automotive industry's evolution in China, documenting the struggles and triumphs of key figures and events [6][7]. - The narrative aims to ensure that the contributions of those who have shaped the industry are remembered and appreciated by future generations [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining the growth of China's automotive industry amidst changing market conditions and suggests that both domestic and international growth factors may weaken in the future [2][3]. Group 1: Current Growth Factors - The domestic market's growth is primarily driven by policies such as trade-in incentives and price subsidies, while the international market benefits from China's enhanced reputation for manufacturing, technological advancements in electric and smart vehicles, and cost advantages due to inflation in major markets [2]. - The domestic automotive market has reached a saturation point where the initial surge in vehicle purchases has passed, and future growth may depend on the sustainability of subsidy policies [2]. - China's automotive exports have seen rapid growth, but maintaining this momentum may be challenging as the market has matured and competition increases [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The automotive industry is crucial for supporting China's economy, especially during the transition to high-quality growth, and it should aim to grow faster than GDP to drive overall economic development [3]. - The industry faces challenges such as limited capacity for rapid expansion and the need for innovation, necessitating systemic policy changes to stimulate consumption and market development [3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To promote domestic market growth while achieving carbon neutrality goals, the article suggests increasing local government tax revenues from expanded automotive consumption and shifting focus from attracting investment to market expansion [5]. - A fundamental reform of the tax system is recommended, transitioning from a value-added tax to a consumption tax to better align with practices in leading automotive nations [5]. - The introduction of a green tax system based on carbon taxes is proposed to support the growth of electric vehicles without increasing the overall tax burden [5]. Group 4: Industry Preparedness - The automotive industry must prepare for tax reforms that could impact market stability, ensuring a smooth transition for both new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles [6]. - Sales service enterprises should innovate service models to increase revenue in response to market changes, while manufacturers should focus on producing smaller, cost-effective vehicles that support the green transition [7].

Core Viewpoint - Continued support for fuel cell vehicles is crucial for maintaining China's competitive edge in the global fuel cell industry and hydrogen economy [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of Continued Support - Continued support can help China achieve a world-leading position in the fuel cell industry, as current technology indicators are already at an advanced level [2] - Without ongoing support, previous advancements may be lost, as many companies are still in the R&D phase and facing financial difficulties [2] - Supporting fuel cell vehicles is not just about the vehicles themselves but also about positioning China at the forefront of the hydrogen economy, which is essential for global carbon neutrality efforts [3] Group 2: Suggestions for Optimizing Phase II Demonstration Projects - The initial phase of the demonstration project was effective in leveraging local government subsidies and attracting enterprise investment [4] - The second phase should focus on medium to long-distance heavy-duty fuel cell trucks, where fuel cell vehicles have clear advantages in range and efficiency [4] - Successful implementation in this area could serve as a significant global example, contrasting with the slower progress seen in other countries [4] Group 3: Importance of Toll Fee Exemptions - Expanding toll fee exemptions for fuel cell vehicles is critical for increasing their application range and market penetration [5] - The potential revenue loss from toll exemptions is minimal given the current limited number of fuel cell vehicles, and such measures should be temporary [5] - Addressing funding gaps for road maintenance should involve tax reforms rather than restricting toll exemptions, as this could hinder the development of the fuel cell industry [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese automotive industry is transitioning from a large automotive nation to a strong automotive nation, and the industry dynamics have changed significantly, requiring a reevaluation of common assumptions [1][2][4] - The notion that the industry is primarily characterized by fragmentation and small-scale operations is challenged, as the current market structure can support more than just three major automakers due to its size [2][3] - The historical context shows that while fragmentation was an issue in the past, the current primary concern is excessive competition rather than the number of enterprises [3][4] Group 2 - The industry is entering a new phase of innovation, with significant investments in research and development, making China a leader in both R&D spending and patent applications [5] - Emphasis on safety and technological maturity is crucial for new technology applications in the automotive sector, as vehicles are high-value, long-term consumer goods [5][6] - Government regulation is necessary to manage the premature application of unproven technologies, and a "sandbox" approach could facilitate gradual integration of new technologies [5][6] Group 3 - The idea that companies should avoid using similar technologies to foster differentiation is deemed unrealistic, as consumer needs are often similar across brands, leading to a natural overlap in technology use [7] - The historical development of the automotive industry indicates that new technologies are often adopted by various manufacturers over time, and the focus should be on refining these technologies for optimal user experience [7] - The industry is urged to focus on high-quality development and to consider what market competition and technological progress should look like for the benefit of the nation and its people [7]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "involution" in competition has become a national consensus, with large enterprises reporting improvements while small enterprises feel little change [1] Group 1: Causes of Involution - Involution is a market phenomenon deeply rooted in social and cultural factors, stemming from a collective desire for rapid economic development and national rejuvenation since the establishment of New China [1] - Major enterprises leverage their competitive advantages to intensify competition, aiming to eliminate other players, which is a significant cause of involution [2] - Government bias towards large enterprises and neglect of small and medium-sized enterprises in market regulation contributes to the formation of involution [2] Group 2: Governance Methods - Effective governance requires a combination of a well-functioning market and proactive government intervention, aiming to establish a sound competitive order in the socialist market economy [3] - The governance process is expected to take a long time, potentially requiring one or two generations to establish a high-quality development market order [3] Group 3: Thoughts on Governance - Involution is not a criminal act; the focus should be on the strict enforcement of existing laws and regulations [4] - Overly strict management can stifle market vitality and increase governance costs [5] - Indicators such as average profit margins can help assess the severity of involution in industries like the automotive sector [5] - Involution encompasses more than just price competition; it also includes other competitive aspects, and there are suggestions to focus on technological competition instead [5] - Governance of involution is a gradual process, requiring continuous adaptation of management models based on new market developments [6]

Group 1 - LG Energy Solution announced a new lithium iron phosphate battery supply contract worth $4.3 billion, which could significantly enhance its global competitiveness [1] - The contract represents nearly 25% of LG Energy Solution's projected revenue for 2024, indicating a strong market position [1] - The company has advanced its production technology in lithium iron phosphate batteries, closing the gap with leading Chinese firms [1] Group 2 - The Tulip Alliance, formed by LG Energy Solution and Panasonic, holds over 5,000 patents and aims to restrict the growth of Chinese battery manufacturers in international markets [2] - Recent court rulings in Germany have favored the Tulip Alliance, requiring Chinese companies to cease sales and recall products, highlighting the competitive landscape [2] - The patent battle in the battery sector is expected to intensify in the international market [2] Group 3 - The international market is identified as the next battleground for China's battery industry, which possesses strong competitive advantages in technology and cost [3] - Despite domestic competition, China's electric vehicle and battery sectors are well-positioned for international expansion [3] Group 4 - The Chinese battery industry needs to organize to combat internal competition and create a favorable international environment [4] - Strengthening industry self-regulation and knowledge property rights is crucial to prevent detrimental practices and enhance innovation [4] - China has become a leader in battery patents, particularly in lithium iron phosphate and sodium batteries, indicating a shift towards innovation [4] Group 5 - Enhancing international collaboration is essential for the growth of China's battery industry, which can contribute to global carbon reduction goals [5] - The industry should transition from an innovation alliance to a formal industrial association to better support international efforts [5] - Government support is needed to guide the battery industry in navigating international competition and policy development [5] Group 6 - The government encourages the battery industry to focus on long-term strategies while being cautious about technology leakage [6] - There is a call for increased international engagement to align with global initiatives and the Belt and Road strategy [6]

Core Viewpoint - The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration project initiated by five ministries has achieved significant results, but further support is urgently needed for the continued development of fuel cell vehicles in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Achievements of the Demonstration Project - The project has led to product performance reaching or nearing international advanced levels [1]. - Key components have seen innovative breakthroughs, forming a complete industrial chain [1]. - The cost of fuel cells has significantly decreased, with stack costs dropping from 15,000 yuan per kilowatt in 2017 to 1,000 yuan per kilowatt, and system costs below 2,000 yuan per kilowatt [1]. - Nearly 30,000 fuel cell vehicles have been promoted, ranking second in the world, primarily focusing on commercial vehicle applications [1]. Group 2: Bottlenecks After Project Completion - Market promotion requires a certain scale, and signs of market contraction have emerged following the end of the demonstration project [2]. - Most companies in the fuel cell industry are in the entrepreneurial mid-stage and operating at a loss, risking bankruptcy without continued development support [2]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of Continued Support - Continued support for fuel cell vehicles is crucial for the development of the hydrogen energy system, which is essential for achieving carbon neutrality [4]. - Hydrogen energy is a key carrier for storing fragmented renewable energy, and fuel cell vehicles are a leading application area [4]. - The significant reduction in fuel cell system costs in China allows for market development under supportive policies, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector [3][4]. Group 4: Recommendations for Continued Support - Initiate a second phase of the demonstration project, focusing on long-distance heavy commercial vehicles while reducing financial support by half [5]. - Expand toll fee discounts to create favorable market conditions driven by policy incentives [5]. - Broaden the range of supported technologies to include hydrogen, alcohol, and ammonia engines, facilitating the construction of the hydrogen energy system [6]. - Allow the use of industrial by-products for hydrogen, alcohol, and ammonia fuels temporarily, promoting overall industry development [6].