回顾2025年，应该是中国汽车产业历史上最卷的一年。乘联会秘书长崔东树分析， 2025年我国汽 车行业销售利润率为4.1%，为历年来最低。 究其原因，除2025年价格竞争激烈外， 产品迭代过快，也 是主要原因之一。 一、从企业投入产出周期分析，产品迭代过快，会提高成本，降低利润。 董扬汽车视点 资深亲历者 · 行业深度观察 三、产品迭代过快，会不可避免地缩短新技术的验证周期，容易遗留安全隐患。 汽车产品使用工况复杂，生命周期长，安全问题至关重要。在过去传统技术汽车时代，新技术研 究、开发、验证阶段较长，产品迭代也相对缓慢，留有足够的安全验证时间。现在进入互联网时代，消 费者生活节奏加快，对于新技术也更容易接受。但是，汽车产品的根本属性没有变，对安全的要求也没 有变。希望业界同仁在拥抱互联网思维的同时，一定要牢记这一点。 记得当年参加WTO谈判，总说我国汽车产业是"幼稚产业"，现在看来，说的真对。 中国汽车产业 不但需要从幼小发展到壮大，还需要从幼稚发展到成熟。 一项新产品，按生产的周期可分为4期：导入期、成长期、成熟期、衰退期。导入期肯定是亏损经 营，衰退期也很难盈利，只有成长期和成熟期是可以盈利的。 如果产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreements between China and the EU, as well as Canada, regarding electric vehicle exports represent a mid-term solution that addresses the core interests of both parties, resulting in a win-win situation rather than a one-sided victory for China [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The core of the China-EU agreement is a price agreement, while the China-Canada agreement focuses on tariff quotas. The China-EU agreement, titled the "China-EU Electric Vehicle Price Commitment Agreement," allows Chinese manufacturers to raise sales prices instead of facing anti-subsidy taxes, thus protecting the EU market from being overwhelmed by Chinese products [2] - The China-Canada agreement, known as the "China-Canada Electric Vehicle Export Agreement and Consensus," limits Chinese exports to Canada to 49,000 vehicles annually with a 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff, down from 100%. The quota will gradually increase until restrictions are lifted [2] - Both agreements aim to eliminate barriers for Chinese electric vehicles to enter the EU and Canadian markets, protect local markets from excessive competition, and encourage Chinese companies to invest in local manufacturing [2] Group 2: Trade Principles - Encouraging trade and protecting markets are fundamental principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The shift from closed production and consumption to economic globalization helps lower global costs and promotes the spread of advanced technologies [3] - International trade must balance the import of competitive foreign products with the protection of local market order, ensuring that local industries are not undermined while providing consumers with better choices [3] Group 3: Strategic Approaches - The shift from responding to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures to employing price agreements and tariff quotas reflects China's growing economic strength and bargaining power in international trade [4] - The expansion of trade conflicts from low-end labor-intensive products to advanced technology products necessitates more sustainable and mutually beneficial trade methods [4] - Price agreements and tariff quotas are seen as effective means to establish long-term stable relationships in trade, similar to the historical resolution of trade conflicts between Japan and the United States in the automotive sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreements between China and the EU, as well as Canada, regarding electric vehicle exports represent a mid-term solution that addresses the core interests of both parties, leading to a win-win outcome rather than a simple victory for China [1][2]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The core of the China-EU agreement is a price commitment, where Chinese manufacturers will raise their selling prices to replace the EU's anti-subsidy tax, thus protecting the EU market while allowing Chinese exporters to increase profits [1]. - The China-Canada agreement establishes an annual export quota of 49,000 vehicles with a reduced tariff of 6.1%, which will gradually increase until the restrictions are lifted [1]. Group 2: Trade Principles - Encouraging trade and protecting local markets are fundamental principles of the World Trade Organization, promoting economic globalization and benefiting global economic development [3]. - International trade must balance the import of competitive foreign products with the protection of local market order, ensuring that local industries are not undermined [3]. Group 3: Trade Strategies - The shift from responding to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures to employing price agreements and tariff quotas reflects China's enhanced economic strength and bargaining power in international trade [4]. - The current trade conflicts have expanded from low-end labor-intensive products to advanced technology sectors, necessitating more sustainable and mutually beneficial trade strategies [4]. - Price agreements and tariff quotas are seen as effective means to establish long-term stable relationships in trade, similar to historical resolutions in the automotive sector between Japan and the US [4].

2025年， 在中国汽车产业的创新领域， 有一件小事却影响深远。 这就是，用户在使用中发现，作 为创新潮流之一的 隐藏式门把手存在安全隐患，政府部门因此紧急修订了相关的强制性标准。这是一 个新的开端。过去我们的创新多是跟随性创新， 一项新技术或者新的装置，其优点和缺点都经过了先 行者充分的论证，我们 只要问自己能不能做得出来，或者能不能学会就行了。而现在我们进入了创新 引领的新阶段， 正如任正非先生所说，进入了"无人区"，我们不但要问自己能不能做出新的创新， 还 要充分论证，这个新的创新有什么优点与缺点？汽车产品 是人们长期使用的耐用消费品， 技术创新和 装置创新，除了看优点是不是足够好以外，还要看缺点能不能克服，或者被接受，而且要到成熟才能应 用。这一点与互联网等领域是不一样的 ，建议业界同仁在拥抱互联网创新思维的同时，需要深刻地认 识到这一点。 1、采用新技术或新装置要考虑安全。 除隐藏式门把手以外， 还有三项新技术需充分考虑安全问题。 一是异形方向盘。 我们通常使用的 汽车产品 ，方向盘转角与前轮转角的比例是相对固定的， 转90 度或更大的弯时，需要方向盘转一圈以上，因此方向盘需要是圆的。 在一部分赛车 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the persistent issue of electric vehicles (EVs) having significantly lower driving ranges in winter compared to manufacturer specifications, despite improvements in lithium battery performance due to new technologies [1]. Group 1: Current Challenges - The inherent characteristic of EVs is that driving range decreases significantly in extreme temperatures, primarily due to energy consumption from heating in winter and cooling in summer [1]. - New technologies like heat pump air conditioning can alleviate energy consumption but do not fundamentally resolve the issue [1]. - The need for heating or cooling the battery system to enhance performance in extreme temperatures also consumes energy [1]. Group 2: Testing Methodology - Current testing methods for EV driving range, namely the China Light-Duty Vehicle Test Cycle (CLTC) and the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), do not adequately account for temperature sensitivity, leading to discrepancies between expected and actual performance [2]. - The lack of an appropriate testing methodology results in manufacturers overstating driving ranges to meet consumer expectations, negatively impacting user experience [2]. - There is a call for establishing a new testing standard that incorporates environmental temperature effects, leveraging China's extensive EV market experience [2]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - The article suggests that Chinese EV manufacturers should enhance technological innovation to improve vehicle performance in adverse weather conditions [4]. - Most Chinese brand EVs can meet claimed driving ranges under optimal conditions, but performance drops by 10-20% in slightly adverse conditions and by 30-40% in extreme temperatures [4]. - The goal is to reduce the driving range reduction to within 20% and to advance the technology to ensure EVs are not only usable but also user-friendly [4].

4、政府综合治理内卷的方法，也是现成的。不是制定严刑峻法，更不是回到计划经济。而是对于 现有的法律法规，常抓不懈，要求企业认真遵守。 对于产业的竞争秩序，要有长期监管的耐心。发现 苗头，及时治理，抓典型企业。政府要有监控产业发展秩序的责任。过去我们认为，对于落后产业，政 府需要多管，要集中资源，倾斜优势企业。 对于先进产业，可以放手让市场发展。现在看来不完全， 对于先进产业，政府工作的重点是创造公平的竞争环境，而公平的竞争环境不会天然生成，需要在政府 的监管下培育。 又到一年岁末， 回顾2025年，影响中国汽车产业发展的最重大事件，莫过于治理内卷， 而且对于 今后的发展，也有深远的影响。 自去年7月中央政治局会议提出要反对内卷，到提出综合治理内卷，到政府采取一系列管控措施。 逐渐形成了对内卷式竞争危害和规律的深刻认识，以及综合治理内卷的系列政策措施。 现在全行业的 内卷现象已有所缓解，但多数行业同仁仍心存疑虑，担心治理内卷不能持之以恒，担心内卷还会以其他 形式出现。但 笔者认为，从政府到全行业，对内卷的危害已有深刻的认识，对内卷的治理已有了相对 完整的办法，持之以恒，必能治理。 现梳理如下： 1、有没有内卷， ...

Core Viewpoint - The most significant event affecting the development of China's automotive industry in 2024 is the governance of "involution," which has profound implications for future growth [1]. Group 1: Indicators of Involution - There are clear economic indicators to measure the presence of involution, such as industry average profit margins being lower than the national average and the presence of excessive price competition [1]. - Specific manifestations of involution include prolonged payment terms across the industry and the prevalence of unethical practices like black public relations [1]. Group 2: Identifying Involution in Enterprises - Identifying which enterprises are leading in involution can be achieved through industry research and discussions, as internal stakeholders are aware of the competitive landscape [2]. - The primary manifestations of involution can be discerned through organized industry studies and dialogues [2]. Group 3: Causes of Involution - The main cause of involution is the competitive attitude of corporate leaders rather than overcapacity or product homogeneity [2]. - Overly competitive behavior, where companies prioritize suppressing competitors over mutual industry growth, is a key driver of involution [2]. Group 4: Government's Role in Governance - The government's approach to managing involution involves consistent enforcement of existing laws and regulations rather than strict punitive measures or a return to planned economy [3]. - Long-term regulatory patience is necessary to maintain competitive order within the industry, with a focus on creating a fair competitive environment [3]. Group 5: Understanding Involution - Involution is characterized as excessive competition, a unique phenomenon within the context of China's socialist market economy, necessitating governance [5]. - It is crucial for government departments to recognize the governance of involution as an important task and a form of management innovation in the new stage of socialist market economy [5].

Group 1 - The article highlights a trend of de-globalization in the automotive industry, particularly among Western companies seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains, which poses a risk to global economic cooperation [1][2] - It argues that maintaining a robust global supply chain is beneficial for all countries, including China, as it has historically led to economic growth and improved living standards [2][3] - The article emphasizes that China's comprehensive supply chain advantages, including cost efficiency and innovation, should be leveraged to counteract de-globalization efforts and maintain competitiveness in the global market [3][4] Group 2 - It suggests that China should utilize its supply chain strengths strategically to negotiate better international economic and political conditions, rather than resorting to isolationist policies [4][5] - The article advises industries and companies to adapt their strategies for global supply chains by considering local economic impacts and fostering integration into local markets [5][6] - It stresses the importance of managing cultural and operational conflicts when expanding internationally, prioritizing national interests over individual corporate benefits [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for improved safety measures in the development and management of lithium batteries, particularly lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and ternary lithium batteries, highlighting their respective advantages and the importance of balancing their use in the electric vehicle market [1][2]. Group 1: Battery Types and Market Position - Both LFP and ternary lithium batteries are essential, each serving different market segments; LFP is cost-effective and safer, while ternary lithium offers higher energy density suitable for premium electric vehicles [1][2]. - China's market currently favors LFP batteries, but internationally, ternary lithium batteries dominate, indicating a need for China to maintain competitiveness in both battery types [2]. Group 2: Recommendations for Companies and Research Institutions - Companies should enhance research on battery safety mechanisms and protective measures, leveraging artificial intelligence to monitor electrochemical changes during battery use, which could significantly improve safety [3]. - The scope of safety testing for batteries should be expanded beyond national standards to ensure user safety under real-world conditions, including scenarios like speeding [4]. - Continuous monitoring of battery management systems is crucial to prevent issues like unexpected power loss, especially in long-term use [4]. - Companies should avoid over-promising on new product capabilities, particularly regarding safety, to maintain credibility and trust [4]. Group 3: Export and Safety Monitoring - Exported electric vehicles and batteries must prioritize safety, with robust after-sales service and monitoring to protect the reputation of Chinese manufacturing [5]. Group 4: Government Management Suggestions - The government should ensure comprehensive reporting of battery safety incidents and establish a national expert committee to analyze and manage safety data [6]. - Product announcements should include detailed information about battery brands, types, and production dates to facilitate user awareness and government analysis [6]. - When conditions allow, safety data for different brands and battery types should be publicly disclosed to enhance market oversight and consumer confidence [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for the Chinese automotive industry to broaden its focus beyond autonomous driving, suggesting that innovation should also target materials, basic technologies, and user experience improvements in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [1][3]. Group 1: Technological Advancements in the 14th Five-Year Plan - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's automotive industry transitioned from "catching up" to "keeping pace" with global leaders, particularly in electric and intelligent connected vehicles [2]. - China has made significant advancements in high-strength steel for vehicle bodies, with a higher application ratio and lower costs compared to international standards [2]. - The industry has also seen the widespread adoption of advanced chassis systems, which were previously limited to high-end vehicles, leading to improved performance and reduced costs [2]. Group 2: Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan - Focus on innovation in processes and materials, particularly in high-strength steel structures and large die-cast aluminum chassis, to leverage China's manufacturing capabilities [4]. - Emphasize research in basic and common technologies, moving beyond merely following international trends to developing new scientific directions [5]. - Invest in smart chassis technology, with significant progress already made by companies like BYD and Changan, indicating a trend towards market adoption [6][7]. - Enhance user experience through the integration of internet technologies in sales, maintenance, and service, predicting a shift away from traditional sales models [8]. Group 3: High-Performance Chips for Autonomous Driving - The development of high-performance chips for autonomous driving requires national collaboration, as the specific needs for such chips remain unclear [9]. - Current international chip designs may not be optimal for automotive applications, highlighting the need for tailored solutions [9][10]. - China's chip manufacturing capabilities are expected to improve, potentially achieving breakthroughs in the next five years [9][10]. Group 4: Research on Power Battery Systems - Despite advancements, the power battery sector still requires significant innovation, particularly in safety, recycling, and lifecycle maintenance [11][12]. - Addressing issues such as battery discharge during winter and fire safety is crucial for enhancing the overall reliability of electric vehicles [12][13]. - The integration of artificial intelligence in the design and manufacturing processes of power batteries is essential for improving performance and safety [13].