Price Review - Domestic cotton prices continued to rise, with the Zheng cotton futures main contract reaching 15,035 yuan/ton on January 7, a 1.5-year high, before slightly retreating. The average settlement price for the Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract was 14,806 yuan/ton, up 291 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 2.0% increase. The national cotton price B index averaged 15,712 yuan/ton, up 242 yuan/ton, a 1.6% increase compared to the previous week [2] - International cotton prices experienced a brief rise due to strong domestic Zheng cotton prices and expectations of reduced U.S. cotton planting area, but faced downward pressure from weak U.S. cotton export data. The average settlement price for the New York cotton futures main contract was 64.69 cents/pound, up 0.45 cents/pound, a 0.7% increase from the previous week. The average international cotton index (M) price was 72.6 cents/pound, equivalent to an import cost of 12,435 yuan/ton (calculated with a 1% tariff, excluding port and handling fees), down 87 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The price difference between domestic and international cotton expanded to 3,277 yuan/ton, an increase of 329 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] Market Outlook - The global supply of cotton is tightening, while terminal consumption shows signs of recovery. Brazil's cotton exports reached 453,000 tons in December 2025, with a total annual export of 3.03 million tons, a 9% year-on-year increase, effectively supplementing global supply. The Indian Cotton Association raised its production estimate for the current year to 5.262 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.77%, alleviating concerns about reduced production [5] - U.S. cotton exports remain weak, with a net contract volume of only 32,000 tons as of January 1, a further decline from the previous week, indicating weak spot demand. A recent survey indicated that U.S. cotton planting intentions for the 2026 season are expected to drop to 9.505 million acres, a decrease of 270,000 acres year-on-year, reflecting declining farmer enthusiasm and suggesting potential tightening of future supply [5] - The global apparel consumption demand is expected to recover, with inventory levels in major markets like the U.S. and South Korea dropping to near three-year lows. The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose to 54 in January, the highest in four months, reinforcing expectations for improved terminal demand [5] - Domestic new cotton sales continue to increase, with a national cotton sales rate of 55.6% as of January 8, up 24.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 27.6 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The volume of cotton inspected has reached nearly 6.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5] - The downstream cotton yarn market shows mixed performance, with high and medium count yarns selling well, while low count yarns face sluggish sales. The operating rate of spinning enterprises remains stable but slightly decreased, with limited new order quantities [5][6] Market Dynamics - The domestic cotton market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with tightening supply expectations clashing with sluggish downstream transmission and increased imported cotton supply. Additionally, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are causing short-term fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, which are likely to remain in a volatile pattern [6]

分析人士指出，在白宫与美联储围绕货币政策龃龉不断的背景下，这一调查恐进一步侵蚀美联储的独立 性，增加其货币政策走向的不确定性。 鲍威尔11日在视频声明中表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面"独立性"的"借 口"。"这关系到美联储是否还能依据证据和经济状况来制定利率——或者说，货币政策是否会受政治压 力或胁迫所左右。" 他认为，美国政府对他提出刑事指控威胁，是因为美联储依据对公众利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而不 是遵从总统的意愿。 美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪的发言人回应称，司法部已指示检方优先调查任何滥用纳税人资金的情况。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔11日晚表示，美国联邦检察官已于9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就他 2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项目。 有观点分析指出，如果联邦检察官通过诉讼裁定鲍威尔有罪，特朗普将可依法解除其职务。虽然此类诉 讼通常难以迅速得出最终结果，但若检方正式起诉，势必会给鲍威尔的履职带来不确 ...

Group 1 - Hassett clarifies that Trump's views on interest rates are unrelated to the Justice Department's investigation of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the independence of both institutions [1] - He criticizes the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy, attributing the current lack of economic prosperity in the U.S. to these policies [1] - Hassett confirms that the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters has significantly exceeded its budget, indicating a discrepancy with Chairman Powell's previous testimony [1] Group 2 - On employment issues, Hassett refrains from determining whether a 4.4% unemployment rate signifies "full employment," attributing recent high layoff numbers to federal government downsizing and the deportation of illegal immigrants [2] - He asserts that government economic policies are effective and predicts that measures aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing will lead to more hiring in the second half of the year [2] - Hassett expresses interest in potentially succeeding as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve [2]

新华社纽约1月12日电 新闻分析｜美联储主席遭刑事调查 货币政策不确定性增加 新华社记者刘亚南 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔11日晚表示，美国联邦检察官已于9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就他 2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项目。 分析人士指出，在白宫与美联储围绕货币政策龃龉不断的背景下，这一调查恐进一步侵蚀美联储的独立 性，增加其货币政策走向的不确定性。 鲍威尔11日在视频声明中表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面"独立性"的"借 口"。"这关系到美联储是否还能依据证据和经济状况来制定利率——或者说，货币政策是否会受政治压 力或胁迫所左右。" 他认为，美国政府对他提出刑事指控威胁，是因为美联储依据对公众利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而不 是遵从总统的意愿。 美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪的发言人回应称，司法部已指示检方优先调查任何滥用纳税人资金的情况。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 从货币政策看，美联储在2025年9月至12月连续三次降息25个基点后， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black market is expected to experience low-level consolidation. The steel market has a supply-demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand remaining weak. The iron ore market is likely to fluctuate at a high level, supported by the approaching steel mill replenishment cycle and supply entering the off - season. The coking coal and coke market has seen production resumption after the new year, and downstream pre - holiday replenishment may support prices. The ferroalloy market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations due to weak terminal demand and a lack of driving factors [12][13][14][15] Summary by Catalog 01 Week - ly Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various black commodities have different changes. For example, the closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures contract on January 9, 2026, was 3144, up 22 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.70% increase; the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai was 3290, down 10 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.30% decrease [8] 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Black Market - Logic: The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills and blast furnaces have increased. The steel product market is affected by a supply - demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand weak. The macro - market has limited impact on prices. - Viewpoint: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Domestic monetary policy expectations are rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The supply is entering the off - season, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching pre - holiday replenishment cycle. - Viewpoint: High - level fluctuations in the short term. Do not chase high prices. Adopt interval operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coking Coal and Coke - Logic: The central bank's emphasis on loose monetary policy boosts market sentiment. Coal market production - cut rumors have limited impact on coking coal supply. After the new year, coal mines are resuming production, and downstream demand is expected to increase. - Viewpoint: Be cautious due to sharp short - term price fluctuations [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas and domestic macro - environments have different impacts. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has different trends, and demand is in a weak recovery state with high inventory pressure. - Viewpoint: Narrow - range fluctuations [15] 03 Variety Data Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rebar: The weekly output last week was 191.04 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons. The apparent demand was 174.96 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons. The total inventory was 438.11 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [18][29] - Hot - rolled coil: The weekly output last week was 305.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.62 million tons. The apparent demand was 308.34 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.25 million tons. The total inventory was 368.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 58.23 million tons [30][35] Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 16275.26 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1272.30 million tons. The port daily handling volume was 323.27 million tons per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.0 million tons [49] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 8989.59 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 869.34 million tons. The daily consumption was 283.28 million tons per day, with a year - on - year increase of 2.45 million tons [61] - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipments this week were 3180.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 365.3 million tons [69] Coal and Coke - Coke total inventory: Last week, it was 915.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 41.99 million tons. - Coking coal total inventory: Last week, it was 2783.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 355.02 million tons. - Independent coking enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 45 yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 29 yuan [94][102][111] Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On January 9, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35.5 yuan per dry - ton degree, with a year - on - year increase of 1.8 yuan. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [134] - Inventory: On January 2, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 438.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 59.2 million tons [137] - Production: The weekly output of ferromanganese last week was 191030 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10255 tons. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.55 million tons [140][143] - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products last week was 115899 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 89 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18508.8 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 107 tons [145]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No explicit investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a pattern of increasing supply, weakening demand, and mixed inventory trends. Due to rising raw material costs, narrowing profit margins, and seasonal factors, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Macro - level policies aim to maintain liquidity, but terminal demand remains weak, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Steel Product Situation - **Supply**: The output of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. The weekly output of rebar from major national steel mills was 191.04 million tons (+2.82 million tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 305.51 million tons (+1 million tons). Some steel mills completed maintenance, leading to increased iron - water output and a significant rise in EAF operating rates [4]. - **Demand**: Demand was seasonally weak. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 174.96 million tons (-25.48 million tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 308.34 million tons (-2.43 million tons). The weekly average trading volume of rebar as of January 9 was 8.03 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils was 2.65 million tons [4][46][50]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory accumulated, while hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08 million tons), and the total hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.13 million tons (-2.83 million tons) [4]. - **Basis**: As of January 9, the basis of the rebar main contract was 146 yuan/ton (-32 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was -24 yuan/ton (-24 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Price**: The national average price of rebar was 3337 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coils was 3306 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Raw Material Situation The cost - side support strengthened. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the price of main coking coal in Lüliang was 1403 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan/ton; and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Steel Mill Situation - The profitability rate of steel mills declined to 37.66%. The iron - water output was 229.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78%. The EAF operating rate was 72.97%, a week - on - week increase of 4.34%, and the EAF capacity utilization rate was 56.91%, a week - on - week increase of 1.76% [4]. - As of January 9, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 89.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.65% [29]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Situation - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million units, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 units; sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. New - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 units; sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons [69]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to November, real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, new housing starts decreased by 20.5% year - on - year, housing completion decreased by 18% year - on - year, commercial housing sales area decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, commercial housing sales revenue decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and funds in place decreased by 11.9% year - on - year [72][73]. 3.5 Export Situation In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197,800 tons. From January to November, cumulative steel exports were 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [65].

Core Insights - The investigation by the Justice Department has led to a surge in gold prices, reaching record levels, as indicated by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's disclosure of grand jury subpoenas issued to the central bank [1][5][6] - Peter Schiff, a long-time advocate for gold, attributes the increase in gold prices to safe-haven demand driven by the DOJ investigation, while also raising concerns about the potential impact on Bitcoin [1][6] Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices hit an all-time high of over $4,600 per ounce following the announcement of the DOJ investigation [5] - Schiff believes that the investigation is a significant factor contributing to the current rally in gold prices [6] Group 2: Bitcoin Market - Analysts caution that Bitcoin's technical signals indicate potential short-term volatility, creating uncertainty regarding its near-term price trajectory [2] - The investigation's implications for Bitcoin's price remain a topic of discussion among market observers [1][6] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Political Pressure - Jerome Powell stated that the subpoenas are part of a broader effort to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, framing the situation as a test of central bank independence [3][4] - Powell emphasized that the matter is not about congressional oversight but rather about maintaining the integrity of monetary policy against political pressure [4]

来源：国际金融报 近日，据美国政府官员透露，美国检察官正对美联储主席鲍威尔展开调查，调查内容涉及其2025年夏季 就美联储总部大楼翻修项目向国会所作的证词。当地时间1月11日，鲍威尔证实，美联储已于1月9日收 到美国司法部发出的大陪审团传票，相关调查可能引发刑事指控。 外界普遍认为，此举是特朗普政府持续向美联储施压、挑战其长期政治独立性的最新举措。 据CCTV国际时讯消息，美国总统特朗普于当地时间1月11日晚接受媒体采访时，否认与司法部向美联 储发出传票有关。他表示："我对此一无所知。" 美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪（Pam Bondi）的发言人拒绝就调查进展发表评论，但表示邦迪已指示联邦检察 官"优先调查任何滥用纳税人资金的行为"。 1月11日晚间，鲍威尔在一段视频声明中回应，称这项调查是特朗普持续施压美联储降息行动中的一 个"借口"。 鲍威尔指出，当前的核心在于"美联储是否还能基于证据和经济状况来制定利率政策，还是说货币政策 将被政治压力所恐吓和左右"。 他强调，潜在的刑事起诉不会影响其继续履行美联储主席职责。据悉，鲍威尔的主席任期将于2026年5 月15日结束，特朗普预计将在未来数月内决定继任人选。 在货币政 ...

站在当前时间点展望2026年市场，我们应跳出市场对2026年各类宏观因素的定价视角，转而审视2026年 真实可能发生的态势。在讨论国内市场之前，我们需简要梳理海外形势：众所周知，美联储作为全球最 主要的央行，2026年仍存在一定的降息空间。市场对2026年美联储降息已形成较强预期，但我们对此持 有略为不同的看法，海外货币政策周期可能会比当前市场预期的更为紧缩。 从时间线来看，特朗普大概率会在2025年底至2026年初公布新任主席人选。随后，新任人选将先担任美 联储理事，待参议院通过听证后，正式出任美联储主席，整体流程大致如此。因此，市场也在依据这一 流程进行定价，市场预期，新任美联储主席上台后的第一次议息会议，降息概率将高于此前几次，这也 是市场对其鸽派货币政策立场的提前定价。 我们认为，哈塞特若出任主席，大概率能推动一次降息，但后续能否实现更多次降息仍存在不确定性， 核心取决于前文提到的劳动力市场与通胀是否会出现明确的边际变化。从当前来看，此前降息的积极效 果仍在逐步显现，因此我们认为，2026年美联储实现一次降息的预期是相对合理的。 十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值突出：跟踪上证十年国债指数，持仓为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of political risks and macroeconomic data on the USD and JPY, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's independence and the geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [1][2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, which was below market expectations and weaker than the previously revised figure, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - The market is divided on the Federal Reserve's short-term policy path, with some expecting aggressive easing due to economic slowdown and political uncertainties, while others see the labor market's resilience as a constraint on such expectations [2] - The USD/JPY pair dipped to around 157 during the Asian session but remained within a low range, influenced by uncertainties in Japan's political environment and monetary policy outlook [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are rising, with the U.S. signaling potential actions regarding Iran, leading to increased regional security risks and affecting overall market risk appetite [3] - The recent decline in the USD reflects a market re-evaluation of institutional and political risks rather than being solely driven by economic data [3] - The JPY is receiving marginal support from geopolitical risk aversion, but domestic political uncertainties and unclear monetary policy timelines continue to exert structural pressure on the currency [3]