杰斐逊表示，他支持在上次FOMC会议上维持政策利率不变，并认为目前4.25%至4.5%的利率仍在"适 度限制性"水平，"能充分应对可能出现的各种事态"。 杰斐逊表示，他认为劳动力市场仍然"稳固"，并认为美国经济今年头三个月出现的轻微萎缩受到进口数 据扭曲，使得GDP数据夸大了经济放缓的程度。 尽管如此，杰斐逊表示，企业和家庭的情绪有所下降，他"非常密切地关注硬数据中经济活动减弱的迹 象。" 美联储副主席杰斐逊周三表示，近期的通胀数据显示美联储在实现2%通胀目标方面持续取得进展，但 由于新的税收政策可能推高物价，前景现在充满不确定性。 周二公布的数据显示，美国4月CPI同比增速低于市场预期，但杰斐逊在纽约联储的一次活动中表示： "未来通胀路径存在很大的不确定性。如果迄今为止宣布的关税上调持续下去，它们可能会 中断通胀回落的进程，并至少产生暂时性的通胀上升。关税是否会产生持续的通胀上行压 力，将取决于贸易政策如何实施、向消费者价格的传导、供应链的反应以及经济的表现。" 此外，他确实预计美国今年经济增长将放缓，但仍将保持正增长。 特朗普政府持续不断地发布关税公告，将美国进口关税水平推至创纪录高位，但随后又推迟实施， ...

不确定通胀压力是否只是暂时的。 我们的任务面临的双方面的风险都在增加。 美联储副主席Jefferson： 美联储政策具备及时应对的能力。 近期的通胀数据与通胀迈向2%的目标水平一致。 政府政策效果可能在"一段时间内"不确定。 关税更高可能导致今年通胀更高。 下调了2025年的增长预期，但仍预计经济将增长。 从硬数据中寻找经济疲软的迹象。 ...

美联储副主席杰斐逊：由于贸易政策的影响，经济增长预计将放缓，但全年经济仍有望实现扩张。 ...

Market Overview - Oil prices continue to rebound from year-to-date lows, with Brent crude at $66.63, up 2.57%[6] - Gold prices rise to $3247.8, reflecting a 0.61% increase amid a weaker dollar[7] - Basic metals, including copper, show an upward trend, with copper priced at $4.723, up 2.21%[7] Economic Data - China's April exports grew by 8.1%, down from 12.4% in March, while imports fell by 0.2%[5] - The trade balance for China in April was $96.18 billion, compared to $102.64 billion in March[5] - The U.S. April CPI year-on-year increased by 2.3%, slightly lower than the previous 2.4%[5] Currency Movements - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined, with the Australian dollar leading gains among G-10 currencies[4] - The U.S. dollar index settled at 100.826, down 0.76%[8] Futures Market Insights - EIA reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 203.2 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 269.6 million barrels previously[9] - COMEX gold inventory increased by 15.33 million ounces, while silver inventory decreased by 123.84 million ounces[10] Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Funds target rate remains at 4.5%[15] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.4669%, down 0.09%[11]

9 May 2025 | 1:23PM EDT Global Economics Wrap-Up: May 9, 2025 Global Economics 5/9/25 10:20AM ET Joseph Briggs Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Katya Vashkinskaya +44(20)7774-4833 | katya.vashkinskaya@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Blair Turoff +1(212)357-7951 | blair.turoff@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC In ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have changed significantly, with major Wall Street banks pushing back their predictions for rate cuts to December 2023, indicating a more cautious outlook on monetary policy [2][5][7]. Group 1: Changes in Rate Cut Expectations - Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from July to December 2023, citing recent developments in trade tensions and a significant easing of financial conditions [5]. - Barclays has also revised its prediction for a rate cut to December, while Citigroup has pushed its forecast back by one month [2][7]. - The latest interest rate swap contracts indicate that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates by approximately 55 basis points this year, down from previous expectations of 75 basis points [3][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Trade Policies - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller highlighted that the Trump administration's tariff policies could increase inflation and hinder economic growth, even with a reduction in trade tensions [4][14]. - Waller noted that the current average tariff rate in the U.S. is significantly higher than historical levels, which could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth [15]. - The increase in new car prices in April suggests that the tariffs on imports from countries like Mexico and Canada are beginning to impact the market [15]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market has reduced its expectations for rate cuts, leading to a rise in the two-year Treasury yield, which briefly surpassed 4% [11]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley identified four key factors supporting the continued rebound of U.S. stocks, including optimism about trade agreements with China and a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [18]. - However, concerns remain as the ten-year Treasury yield has exceeded 4.4%, which could pose challenges for stock valuations [19].

欧洲央行管委Knot：（欧元区）经济增长和通胀短期内都面临不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Knot indicates that short-term uncertainties are negatively impacting economic growth and inflation [1] Economic Impact - Short-term uncertainties are creating challenges for economic growth, suggesting a potential slowdown in various sectors [1] - The negative influence on inflation could lead to adjustments in monetary policy and market expectations [1]

铝类产业日报 2025/5/13 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,005.00 | +95.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,840.00 | -3.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 45.00 | -30.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -5.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 160,449.00 | -7196.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 283,672.00 | +11058.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 151,350.00 | -2025.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 270,165.00 | -15113.00↓ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports a decrease in the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession over the next 12 months from 45% to 35% due to easing trade tensions [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The recent trade agreements are expected to result in a lower-than-anticipated increase in actual tariff rates [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1.0% [1] - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to begin interest rate cuts has been postponed from July to December [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - The Trump administration may announce additional preliminary trade agreements in the coming weeks, which could further reduce actual tariff rates [1]