美国信用评级被下调引发避险需求，黄金强势反弹，美盘能否进一步走高？金十研究员高阳正在直播分 析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

期货热点追踪 黄金过山车行情再现！穆迪历史性下调美国评级点燃避险需求，但黄金价格反弹能持续多久？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by a decrease in safe-haven demand due to easing global trade tensions and geopolitical situations [2][3] Group 1: Recent Gold Price Performance - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with COMEX gold futures experiencing a cumulative decline of 4.32% from May 12 to May 16, marking the largest weekly drop since November 2024 [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Price Decline - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand as global tariff negotiations have made significant progress, leading to a substantial reduction in bilateral tariffs between China and the U.S. [2] - The resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, along with a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, has further alleviated geopolitical tensions, contributing to the decrease in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Federal Reserve's signals indicating a reluctance to cut interest rates have delayed market expectations for rate cuts, diminishing the attractiveness of gold [2] - Large-scale profit-taking activities have also contributed to price disturbances, as some investors opted to secure gains following a rapid increase in gold prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Most institutions predict that gold prices may continue to experience volatility in the short term, but the long-term investment rationale for gold remains intact [3] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), further progress in U.S.-China tariff negotiations could enhance risk appetite, potentially leading to a decline in COMEX gold prices below $3,000 per ounce [3] - Zhongtai Securities suggests that short-term factors, such as the retreat of rate cut expectations, may exert pressure on gold prices [3] - In the medium to long term, the real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is at a high level, and the U.S. economy is gradually moving towards stagflation, indicating a trend towards the restructuring of the U.S. dollar credit system, which may support higher gold prices [3] - From a long-term perspective, gold assets are still considered an important component of asset allocation, and investors should develop reasonable investment strategies based on their goals and risk tolerance while monitoring market dynamics [3]

周一亚洲早盘，现货金一度冲高至3,245美元/盎司，随后维持在3,230美元上方震荡。 消息面解读：穆迪调降美国主权信用评级至Aa1后，市场对美国财政赤字与经济前景的担忧升温，避险买盘重返贵金属市场，上周创下六个月来最大周跌幅 的颓势被部分收复。美元指数回落与美债收益率下滑共同为金价提供支撑。穆迪下调评级虽在意料之外，却凸显美国财政挑战的中长期风险，叠加全球地缘 冲突与关税不确定性，使黄金的避险和对冲价值再度凸显。与此同时，美联储理事巴尔的最新表态也值得关注。他虽认为美国经济基础稳固，但也警告称贸 易争端可能令前景蒙阴。这种"鹰中带鸽"的言论，进一步巩固了美元的强势地位，间接加剧了黄金的跌势。 5月17日，美国金融市场迎来一场"黑色风暴"——国际评级机构穆迪突然将美国主权信用评级从顶级"AAA"下调至"AA+"，这是美国三年内第三次失去三大 评级机构的最高评级。这一决定如同一枚深水炸弹，瞬间引发股债汇三杀，美国国债收益率飙升，黄金价格则因避险需求逆势走强。现在穆迪评级的影响金 价飙升，在周评分析中，我表述出看空的的思路，也解析看空的缘由。今日亚盘高点也与我们周评布空的点位吻合，截止发文最低报价3214附近，如 ...

Core Insights - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which may trigger a chain reaction in the global commodity futures market [1] Group 1: Impact on Energy and Metals - Energy and non-ferrous metal futures are likely to face downward pressure due to the credit rating downgrade [1] Group 2: Safe-Haven Assets - Precious metal futures are expected to benefit from increased demand for safe-haven assets in light of the downgrade [1] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Agricultural futures will require close monitoring as the market reacts to the broader implications of the credit rating change [1]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have seen a drop from 830 yuan per gram to 760 yuan, highlighting the complexity of the current market dynamics driven by both safe-haven demand and speculative fervor [1] - The U.S. Treasury bonds, traditionally viewed as a safe haven, are facing increased credit risk concerns due to rising debt levels, with the 10-year Treasury yield surging 49 basis points in one week, marking the largest weekly increase [3] - The global trade outlook has worsened, with the WTO's trade barometer dropping to 95.5, the lowest since 2009, further boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2 - Speculative bubbles have rapidly expanded, with global gold ETF sizes increasing by over 30% in 2023, and some regional funds seeing growth exceeding 50% [5] - The S&P Global Gold Mining Index has risen over 50% this year, with some individual company stock prices doubling [5] - The leverage in the gold futures market reached a historical high, with 28% of long positions using more than three times leverage, indicating significant irrationality in the market [5] Group 3 - Rational investors are advised to establish a scientific valuation system, focusing on key indicators such as the scale of U.S. debt, which has surpassed $35 trillion, reflecting the stability of the dollar credit system [7] - Central bank gold purchases have provided long-term support for gold demand, with global central bank purchases reaching 387 tons in the first half of 2023, a 52% year-on-year increase [7] - The share of gold in foreign exchange reserves has risen to 15.6% in 2023, up 4.2 percentage points since 2020, further supporting gold prices [7] Group 4 - Inflation levels validate gold's anti-inflation characteristics, with historical data showing that when CPI growth exceeds 3%, gold's average annual return reaches 10.2% [9] - The dollar's performance significantly impacts gold prices, with the dollar index fluctuating from 107.3 to 103.5 in 2023, affecting gold's pricing power [11] - The ongoing de-dollarization process has seen the dollar's share in global settlement currencies drop from 72% in 2000 to 59% in 2023, diminishing its influence on gold pricing [11] Group 5 - Historical cycles of gold prices indicate that it plays a crucial role during global monetary system restructurings, with significant price increases observed during past bull markets [11][13] - The current environment suggests a "high volatility, slow bull" characteristic for the gold market, with structural support from central bank purchases and de-dollarization trends [14] - The World Bank predicts a 25% increase in global gold demand by 2030, with emerging markets contributing 65% of this growth, providing ongoing momentum for gold prices [14]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity market showed a general decline on the 16th, with only a few products like silicon iron, gold, and silver experiencing slight gains [2] - Gold and silver prices saw a minor rebound due to significant overnight gains in overseas precious metals, but were limited by exchange rate factors and a drop in overseas prices during the Asian session [2] - Silicon iron prices rose by 0.92% on the 16th, supported by a reduction in supply, as indicated by a decline in the operating rates and daily production of independent silicon iron enterprises [2] Group 2 - The European shipping line experienced a downturn after a period of significant increases, attributed to supply pressures and a lack of seasonal demand support [3] - The oil prices continued to decline due to increased supply expectations and a rise in U.S. inventory data, alongside potential agreements between the U.S. and Iran [4] - Carbonate lithium prices fell over 4%, driven by a continued decrease in lithium ore prices and a weak demand outlook, with expectations of oversupply persisting into June [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, which fell by 6% from April 22 to May 14, has raised concerns among investors and consumers, despite a significant increase in gold purchases earlier in the year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold fund transaction volume reached approximately 190 billion, with a 6% price drop during the same period [1]. - Gold stocks experienced a more significant decline, dropping over 8% [1]. - Retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 11% year-on-year, with gold bar and coin purchases rising by 30% [3]. Group 2: Regional Disparities - Retail sales of gold and jewelry in Beijing grew by 29% year-on-year, while Guangzhou saw a 15% increase, both exceeding the national average [4]. - In contrast, Shanghai's retail sales for the same category declined by 9% [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand, a stronger US dollar, decreased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, profit-taking by speculators, and a slowdown in central bank gold purchases [6][10]. - Despite the current price drop, it remains above the levels seen in the first quarter, indicating that investors are not yet at a loss [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Research institutions express caution, noting an increase in hedging by gold producers and a decline in recycled gold after eight consecutive quarters of growth, suggesting a higher likelihood of price adjustments [12]. - However, there is optimism regarding the long-term support for gold prices due to the ongoing contraction of US dollar credit [12].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced significant volatility on May 15, with a drop of nearly 1.8% to below $3130 per ounce, followed by a rebound to $3209 per ounce, reflecting a daily fluctuation of 2.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced investor demand for safe-haven assets as U.S.-China trade talks showed unexpected progress, alleviating global trade tensions [1][2]. - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations resulted in a joint statement with multiple positive agreements, which has raised hopes for the global economy [2]. - Following the trade "truce" between the two major economies, gold prices have faced downward pressure, with a notable drop of 2.73% earlier in the week [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, short-term bearish momentum could lead to price targets of $3136, $3073, and $3000 [3]. - The overall macroeconomic risks are currently low, and further reductions in U.S. tariffs could enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential adjustments in precious metals [3]. - Despite the short-term adjustments, the underlying demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Trade Agreements - A new trade agreement is expected to be announced by President Trump upon his return from the Middle East, indicating further potential easing of international trade tensions [6]. - Approximately 25 trade agreements are currently under negotiation, with India being highlighted as a potential candidate for a future agreement [6]. - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has decreased but remains historically high at 17.8%, the highest since 1934, indicating ongoing trade complexities [7].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 中线行情： 4 月初特朗普对等关税措施远超市场预期，引发全球市场剧震并打压包括黄 金在内的全球金融资产；但因特朗普恃强凌弱蛮横无理反复无常损害美元信用引 发跨国资金抛离美国资产行为，来自全球贸易货币体系重组、美国和全球经济衰 退前景、以及美国金融市场波动性的三重避险需求推动 4 月 22 日伦敦金价突破 3500 美元/盎司；虽然部分多头获利平仓叠加特朗普政府安抚市场言论使得金价 有所回调，但整体看中级上涨趋势仍保持良好。我们判断特朗普以美国优先原则 推动国内外改革的决心并没有根本性变化 ...