投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月06日16时53分 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收跌0.08%，沪银主力收涨1.19%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议争议再起，避险需求上行；美国经 济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，特朗普新一轮关税引发全球股市暴跌，多国寻求重新谈判。特朗普威 胁大幅提高印度商品关税，俄油和地缘政治导致贸易冲突升级。③货币属性方面，美国7月就业增长弱于预期，此前两个月的非农 就业岗位增幅遭大幅下修25.8万个，暗示劳动力市场状况急剧恶化，使得美联储9月降息的可能性增加。目前市场预期美联储9月 降息概率从非农前40%左右快递飙升至80附近%，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2次。关税飙升导致美国6月贸易逆差创近两年最 低，对华逆差创21年来新低。美元指数和美债收益遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格 。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关 ...

截至 2025 年 8 月 6 日，国内黄金 9995 价格报 784.4 元 / 克，国际金价突破 3439 美元 / 盎司关口，单日涨幅达 0.13%。实物黄金市场同步活跃，周大福、周生生等品牌金店金价普遍攀升至 1015 元 / 克，较月初累计上涨 6.7%。这一涨势与美联储政策信号密切相关：市场对 9 月降息概率的预期已升至 90%，年内可能出现两次 25 个 基点的降息。花旗集团更将三个月内金价预测上调至 3500 美元 / 盎司，强调 "美国经济放缓与地缘风险共振" 将 推动黄金突破历史高位。 来源：每日新动态周 一、金价突破新高：2025 年 8 月市场现象 五、黄金投资风险控制 从交易数据看，2025 年一季度国内金条及金币消费量同比激增 29.81%，反映投资者对避险资产的强烈偏好。与 此同时，上海期货交易所黄金期货成交额同比增长 143.69%，显示专业投资者正通过杠杆工具捕捉行情。这种结 构性变化源于多重因素：一方面，中东局势因以色列与伊朗代理人战争持续紧张，红海航运风险推升避险溢价； 另一方面，美联储维持利率不变但释放鸽派信号，实际利率下行预期降低了持有黄金的机会成本。值得关注的 是， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions, changes in the Federal Reserve's personnel, and inflationary pressures from tariffs, with gold reaching a peak of $3444 per ounce before settling at $3435 per ounce [1][3] - Short-term demand for gold is expected to remain strong, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven buying, with a potential breakthrough of the recent high of $3390 per ounce [3] - Long-term uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical risks are anticipated to continue supporting gold prices, with key factors including U.S. inflation data, trade negotiations, and Federal Reserve appointments [3] Group 2 - Silver prices have also surged, reaching a peak of $39 per ounce, driven by both the rising gold prices and increased demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [3] - The investment landscape for precious metals suggests that while silver and platinum have long-term investment value, short-term trading risks are heightened due to their volatility [3] - Investors are advised to consider the unique characteristics of silver, which has greater price fluctuations compared to gold, and to be cautious of liquidity risks associated with platinum investments [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a near two-week high, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly declined to 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating a slowdown in the service sector [3] - The market anticipates a 91% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September due to weak employment data [3][7] Group 2 - Trump's recent announcement of new tariffs on several countries, particularly a 25% tariff on Indian goods, has heightened trade tensions [4] - The breakdown of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas could escalate geopolitical risks, potentially impacting gold prices due to increased risk premiums [6] - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler raises concerns about the credibility of U.S. economic data and policy independence [7] Group 3 - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, raising concerns about oversupply amid uncertain demand recovery [9] - The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, which may provide short-term support for oil prices [10] - The market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and U.S. trade policies, which could further influence oil price dynamics [10]

另外，美元指数日图及周图多头动力未能增强，而限制了金价的回落力度，月图来看，也仍处于之前2 年多的宽幅震荡区间之下，即便是继续反弹，在突破震荡区间之前，对于金价的压力，仍然是调整性 的。所以，金价未来一年左右前景仍然偏向震荡调整或以走强的方向为主。 日内将可关注美国7月全球供应链压力指数，还有晚间美盘后半段2025年FOMC票委、波士顿联储主席 柯林斯就美国和全球经济发表讲话。美联储理事丽莎·库克就美国和全球经济发表讲话。2027年FOMC 票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话。 今日周三，黄金开盘先行窄幅波动，虽然早盘仍面临一定阻力压制，但也仍运行在中轨等均线上方，多 头表现持稳，短期内，金价有望在避险需求和降息预期的支撑下保持强势，后市则仍有望突破阻力并继 续走强，触及进一步的目标位3458美元附近。 日图；金价自上周如期触及100日均线支撑止跌反弹，并重回60日及中轨等上方，看涨前景增强，目前 虽多头动力减缓，但也仍运行在众多均线上方，ZZ指标也未显示反弹触顶，暗示仍有望继续走强，再 度冲击3顶阻力压制的区域，所以操作上，依然还是看涨为主，即便是回落走低，下方60日或100日均线 支撑也是再度入场看涨的机会 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong rise in gold prices driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership [1][2] - On August 5, gold prices reached a peak of $3444 per ounce before slightly retreating to close at $3435 per ounce, reflecting a 0.25% increase in COMEX gold futures [1] - The announcement by Trump regarding the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the geopolitical situation in Israel are significant factors influencing market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the recent surge in gold prices is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, inflation pressures from tariffs, and changes in Federal Reserve personnel [2] - Short-term forecasts suggest that gold prices may remain strong, with a potential breakthrough of the recent high of $3390 per ounce, contingent on safe-haven demand and interest rate expectations [2] - Long-term outlooks emphasize that global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks will continue to support gold prices, with key variables being Trump's trade policies and the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy [2]

Macro News - The main focus is on the geopolitical tensions between the US and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil, with President Trump threatening to impose significant tariffs on Indian goods if they continue these purchases [1] - The Swiss Federal Council is preparing to negotiate with the US after the announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, indicating a willingness to find a more attractive proposal to alleviate the current tariff situation [1] Employment Data and Federal Reserve - President Trump has accused the US Labor Department of manipulating the recent employment report to favor the Democratic Party, leading to the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director [2] - There is a significant expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting concerns over the deteriorating job market [2] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the rising demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of monetary easing and a weakening dollar [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a significant rebound due to multiple favorable factors, including weak non-farm employment data and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][5] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [2][5] - Following the employment data release, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September surged to 84.8%, with a projected total of two cuts within the year, each by 50 basis points [2][5] Group 2 - Internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve have intensified, as two members voted against maintaining the current interest rate, indicating a split in the committee regarding future monetary policy [3] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler creates a vacancy that President Trump may fill with a potential future chair, further influencing the Fed's direction [3] - The imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration has increased global trade uncertainty, which is expected to drive up demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4][5] Group 3 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza have further heightened short-term demand for safe-haven assets [5] - The market is currently pricing in a significant likelihood of a rate cut in October, with expectations that inflation data will influence the Fed's decisions moving forward [5] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by persistent trade tensions, inflation risks, and the potential for a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy by the Fed [5] Group 4 - The performance of gold-related ETFs has been strong, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rising by 0.35% and attracting 427 million in investments over the past week [1][7] - Gold stocks are expected to perform well, with the SSH Gold Stock Index showing a 38.01% increase, outperforming the 28.51% rise in London gold prices during the same period [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, increasing the demand for hedging, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with the weakening employment leading to a rebound in the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes increase hedging demand; the risk of US economic stagflation rises, and the weak employment situation leads to a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations. The new round of tariffs by Trump has caused a global stock market crash, and many countries are seeking renegotiation. The weak US employment growth in July and the significant downward revision of non - farm payrolls in the previous two months have increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% to about 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US bond yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold have increased, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D have also risen. There are changes in positions, inventories, and other aspects. For example, the position of Comex gold has decreased by 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Comex gold has decreased by 1.08% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai gold of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total increased by 7,617, and the net short positions decreased by 133 [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in recent visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver have changed, and domestic prices like Shanghai silver and silver T + D have also adjusted. There are also changes in positions, inventories, etc. For example, the position of Comex silver has decreased by 1.93% compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory has increased by 0.46% [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai silver of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total decreased by 2,778, and the net short positions increased by 5,610 [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have decreased by 0.00%. There are also changes in indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index [8]. - **Inflation in the US**: Indicators such as CPI, core CPI, and PCE price index have changed. For example, the year - on - year CPI has increased by 0.30% [10]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP has changed both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.10%, and other labor - market indicators have also adjusted [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index has increased by 3.13%, while new home sales have decreased by 19.64% [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditures, and other indicators have changed. For example, the year - on - year retail sales have decreased by 1.84% [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate has increased by 0.16% [10]. - **US Trade**: Exports and imports have changed both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the trade balance has decreased by 18.69% [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The Michigan consumer confidence index has increased by 9.50%, while the small - and - medium - sized enterprise optimism index has decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have their own changes, and the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has also adjusted. For example, the global proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has increased by 4.11% [12]. - **Hedging Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index has increased by 51.84%, and the VIX index has decreased by 5.54% [12]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index has decreased by 2.70%, and the offshore RMB has increased by 0.65% [12]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in different periods from September 2025 to December 2026 is presented in the table, showing the changing trends of market expectations for interest - rate cuts [13].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising 2.23% on August 1, reaching a one-week high of $3363.37 per ounce, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to new tariff policies from the Trump administration [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.39% to 98.68 on August 1, marking the largest single-day drop since April, which reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold and further supported its price increase [1][3] - The U.S. labor market showed signs of deterioration, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [3][4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90% following the disappointing employment report, with projections indicating two rate cuts by the end of the year [3][4] Political and Economic Context - President Trump imposed high tariffs on products from Canada, Brazil, and India, with rates reaching up to 50%, which led to a global stock market decline and increased market volatility [4][5] - The political fallout from the employment data included Trump's dismissal of a labor department official, raising concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic statistics [4][5] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler added to the uncertainty, as it opened a potential opportunity for Trump to reshape the Fed's leadership [5][6] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.6%, marking its largest drop in two months, while the yield curve inverted, indicating investor skepticism about traditional economic indicators [5][6] - The combination of weak employment data and political instability has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing new buying support in the market [6]