市场普遍预计新西兰央行将在今日降息，将官方隔夜拆款利率下调25个基点，至3.00%。此次降息将延 续去年以来的一系列激进降息举措，经济学家警告称，需要进一步放宽政策以刺激经济增长并遏制失业 率上升。经济学家表示，通胀率已回到目标区间，该央行在未来几个月有空间采取超越中性水平的政策 立场。贸易战等全球性因素也在给该国经济带来压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategists argue that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's assertion regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rates being over one percentage point higher than appropriate levels is incorrect [1] Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Yellen previously stated that "any model" suggests interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower, but efforts to find supporting models have been unsuccessful [1] - The Deutsche Bank team, led by former Federal Reserve economist Matthew Raskin, claims that the rules used by the Federal Reserve in its semi-annual monetary policy report do not clearly indicate a need for rate cuts, let alone cuts of 150 to 175 basis points [1] - The current federal funds rate is within a relatively narrow range of approximately 4% to 4.65%, suggesting that a 25 basis point cut may be reasonable [1]

Market Overview - US stock indices closed mixed as investors await Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, looking for signals on interest rate direction [1] - Rate futures indicate the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut anticipated in September [1] - Concerns arise as some investors rotate out of tech stocks into high-growth sectors, influenced by the significant weight of tech giants in major indices [1][2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are currently cautious in their spending, observing the impact of tariffs on holiday consumption [2] - Major retailers like Lowe's, Walmart, and Target are set to release earnings reports, which will provide insights into the health of American consumers [1][2] Sector Performance - The S&P 500's sectors showed declines in technology (-1.88%), telecommunications (-1.16%), and consumer discretionary, while real estate gained 1.80% [3] - Semiconductor ETFs fell by 2.02%, and various tech sector ETFs declined between 1.34% and 1.89% [2] Notable Stock Movements - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 3.50% and Meta down 2.07%, while Intel surged approximately 7% after SoftBank announced a $2 billion investment [4][5] - Home Depot's stock rose 3.2% despite second-quarter earnings missing market expectations, as the company maintained its full-year guidance [5] Company News - The US government is negotiating with Intel to acquire equity in exchange for subsidies under the CHIPS Act, emphasizing a non-voting stake [7] - Meta is restructuring its AI team into four independent groups to enhance its focus on achieving "superintelligence" [7] - Ford is seeking external customers for its joint battery plant with SK On due to a slowdown in electric vehicle demand [8] AI Developments - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman announced that GPT-6 is in development, promising more personalized interactions through memory capabilities [9]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a mixed performance, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical high due to a significant rise in Home Depot's stock, while the Nasdaq index declined, primarily driven by a drop in Nvidia's shares [1][4] - The Dow Jones turned from gains to losses after hitting a new high, while the Nasdaq fell approximately 1% and the S&P 500 index decreased by about 0.2% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Several well-known semiconductor manufacturers saw their stock prices decline, putting pressure on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices. Nvidia's stock dropped by 2%, with reports indicating that the company is developing a new chip for China that will outperform the currently allowed H20 model [4] - AMD and Broadcom experienced declines of 4% and 2%, respectively, while other major tech stocks like Tesla, Meta, and Netflix also faced downward pressure [4] AI Industry Insights - OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, expressed concerns that the current AI industry is in a bubble phase, noting that investor enthusiasm has reached a "crazy" level, leading to uncontrolled valuations. He anticipates that some investors will face significant losses [4] - Despite recognizing the risks, Altman plans to invest trillions of dollars in data center construction, maintaining a strong belief in the future value of artificial intelligence [4] Home Improvement Sector - Home Depot's stock rose by 3.7%, contributing to the Dow's increase, even though the company's second-quarter profits fell short of expectations. The company has maintained its full-year performance outlook [5] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Investors are awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to gauge potential directions for upcoming policy meetings. The market currently anticipates an 83% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [7] - Analysts suggest that Powell's response to recent "stagflation-like" data will be crucial, as the market has largely priced in the likelihood of a rate cut [8] Intel's Performance - Intel's stock surged following news of SoftBank's $2 billion investment, with reports indicating that the Trump administration is considering acquiring a 10% stake in Intel [9]

Market Overview - On August 19, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.01% and 0.66% respectively [2] - Investors are awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the upcoming global central bank conference [4] Federal Reserve Insights - The theme of this year's Jackson Hole conference is "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," reflecting recent changes in the U.S. labor market [4] - Powell faces a challenging economic situation, balancing signs of a cooling labor market against inflation pressures from tariff policies [4] - There is an 83% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, according to the FedWatch tool [4] Intel's Stock Surge - Intel's stock surged by nearly 12% after receiving significant investments from the Trump administration and SoftBank Group, ultimately rising over 8% [6][8] - The Trump administration is expected to acquire approximately 10% of Intel's shares, potentially providing around $10 billion to support Intel's revival strategy [6] - SoftBank Group agreed to purchase $2 billion in Intel shares, aiming to leverage Intel's chip manufacturing technology for AI applications [8] Viking Therapeutics' Stock Plunge - Viking Therapeutics' stock plummeted over 41% due to disappointing mid-stage trial data for its experimental oral weight loss drug [10] - The drug VK2735 showed a maximum weight loss of 12.2%, but 28% of participants dropped out of the trial within three months, undermining confidence in its competitiveness against products from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk [10][12] - Other pharmaceutical companies have also faced stock declines due to underwhelming results from weight loss drug trials, highlighting the significant scientific challenges in this field [12]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【央行开展逆回购操作，美联储降息预期受挫及美国失业数据公布】央行公告透露，将于8月15日开展 5000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限6个月。叠加8月8日开展的7000亿3个月期买断式逆回购，本月央行买 断式逆回购已累计超额续作3000亿元，有效注入中期流动性。市场预计本月3000亿元MLF到期后，央 行也可能加量续作。 美联储9月降息预期再度受挫。美国7月PPI同比飙升至3.3%，为今年2月以来最高 水平，远超预期的2.5%；环比上涨0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅。旧金山联储主席戴利反对9月会 议大幅降息50个基点，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比敦促在通胀受控前勿"仓促"降息。 美国上周初请失业 金人数下降3000人至22.4万人，低于预期，维持在2021年11月以来低位。前一周续请失业金人数降至 195.3万人，略低于预期，但仍徘徊于2021年以来高位。 ...

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：美国与俄罗斯的初步谈判已经结束，与市场预期基本一致，根本矛盾使得双方的谈判并未取 得实质性成果。双方实际谈判时间远超预期的5-6小时，随后俄罗斯总统快速离开，表明了对美国的不 信任，同时传递出信息：不愿按照美国的节奏行事。 原油方面：隔夜油价整体以震荡为主，多头虽有反击但力度较弱，操作上建议顺势高空为主。目前原油 基本面持续恶化，供需矛盾突出，在此背景下，油价很可能长期疲弱。 原油供应增加的预期也加大了油价的下行压力，美国能源信息署发布的月度短观能源展望报告显示，由 于油井生产率的提高，2025年美国页岩油产量将达到创纪录的1341万桶/日，较此前预期上调4万桶。此 外，OPEC月报显示，OPEC+7月原油产量增加33.5万桶至4194万桶/日，但该产量增长幅度低于此前 OPEC+8国达成的产量恢复协议。库存方面，美国原油库存增加也利空油价，EIA数据显示，截至8月8 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量较一周前增加326.3万桶至8.299亿桶，美国商业原油库 存量较一周前增加303.7万桶至4.26698亿桶。 技术面：原油日线有冲击长期均线的动作，但明显上攻动能较弱，长期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the complexity of economic data poses a significant challenge for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite market perceptions that Trump's tariff comments are the main issue [1] - July's U.S. inflation data shows an annual CPI stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.1%, the highest since February, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [1] - The mixed signals from economic data create a dilemma for the Fed, as some indicators support rate cuts, while core inflation and a robust labor market suggest that cutting rates could be a high-risk choice [1] Group 2 - The market currently prices in nearly a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September, but experts argue that accelerating inflation, low unemployment, and strong financial market performance may make a rate cut unwise [1] - Powell faces the challenge of making decisions without clear data support, as any rate cut could be interpreted as yielding to political pressure, complicating the decision-making process [1] Group 3 - Technically, the dollar index is at a critical support area, with the latest quote at 97.7630, having pierced the bottom of the consolidation range from July and August at 97.70 [2] - Analysts suggest that a drop below 97.70 could indicate further declines for the dollar index, potentially targeting this year's low of 96.373 [2] - If the dollar index falls below this level, the market may further test the psychological level around 95.00 [2]

摘要今日周一（8月18日），在国际黄金市场上，周二呈现出窄幅波动的态势。此时，投资者们的目光 紧紧聚焦于本周即将盛大开幕的杰克森霍尔全球央行年会，他们期望从这场盛会中探寻到美联储未来货 币政策走向的关键线索。就具体行情而言，现货黄金的价格大致徘徊在3333.65美元/盎司的水平；而12 月交割的COMEX黄金期货价格也处于3377美元/盎司附近。 今日周一（8月18日），在国际黄金市场上，周二呈现出窄幅波动的态势。此时，投资者们的目光紧紧 聚焦于本周即将盛大开幕的杰克森霍尔全球央行年会，他们期望从这场盛会中探寻到美联储未来货币政 策走向的关键线索。就具体行情而言，现货黄金的价格大致徘徊在3333.65美元/盎司的水平；而12月交 割的COMEX黄金期货价格也处于3377美元/盎司附近。 【要闻速递】 除了这场举世关注的央行年会之外，投资者同样将视线投向了周三即将公布的美联储7月会议纪要，试 图从中挖掘更多有关政策走向的细节信息。与此同时，地缘政治局势也充满变数。美国总统特朗普于周 一宣称已着手推动俄乌领导人进行会晤安排，然而，美国对于乌克兰的安全承诺具体细节至今仍不明 朗。这些不确定性因素犹如潜流暗涌，有望继 ...

鲍威尔曾利用在杰克逊霍尔的年度演讲来暗示货币政策的重大转变。2024年，在为抑制疫情后的一波通 胀而将联邦基金利率维持在高位后，他确认美联储即将进行一年多来的首次降息。这一次，鲍威尔可能 会利用这次峰会来暗示，美联储是否准备好自去年12月以来恢复降息。 鲍威尔也可能会阐明他如何看待美联储当前的困境。美联储的任务是利用货币政策来保持低通胀和高就 业。但最近，在美国总统特朗普发起了前所未有的提高关税的运动后，这两个经济指标都已走向了错误 的方向。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 华尔街将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上的讲话，他可能会在讲话中暗 示美联储是否准备在9月的下一次会议上降息。 鲍威尔定于北京时间周五晚10点发表题为《经济展望与框架评估》的演讲。这次谈话可能会揭示这位美 联储主席对抗击通胀的看法，以及他是否认为美联储已准备好将其基准联邦基金利率从目前4.25%至 4.5%的区间下调。他和其他美联储官员认为，目前的利率水平足以对经济增长构成"温和"压力，并对 通胀施加下行压力。 给降息希望泼冷水 鉴于令人警惕的通胀数据，市场参与者对9月降息可能过于乐观。B ...