中东突变，全球金融市场巨震。 当地时间13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。以官员称精准打击了伊防空系统目标、导弹设施并清除高级官员。据悉，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令侯赛因 ·萨拉米，伊朗核科学家穆罕默德·马赫迪·塔赫兰奇、法里顿·阿巴斯遭以色列袭击身亡。 据CCTV国际时讯，以色列正对伊朗首都德黑兰发起新一轮袭击，德黑兰上空能听到防空火力的声音。 全球金融市场受此影响巨震。全球主要股市、股指期货大幅下挫，黄金、原油等则大幅拉升。 最新动态 综合央视新闻、新华社、环球网等多家媒体报道，当地时间13日凌晨，在伊朗首都德黑兰传出爆炸声后，伊朗西部的洛雷斯坦省、克尔曼沙阿省等几个省 份也传出爆炸声。以军称，以空军正在对伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事设施相关的目标发动空袭，并且将此次行动命名为"狮子的力量"。 一位不愿透露姓名的以色列国防官员表示，以色列的首轮打击，"精准同步"打击了伊朗的防空系统目标、地对地导弹设施，并大规模清除了伊朗高级官 员。同时，还打击了伊朗武装部队总参谋部和其境内的核科学家。 随后以军发布声明表示，"数十架以军战机已完成了第一阶段的空袭行动，其中包括袭击伊朗不同地区的数十个军事目标，其中包括核设 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Analysts predict that if geopolitical tensions escalate, gold prices may surpass previous highs and reach new historical peaks, driven by increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - Following the Israeli airstrikes on Iran, gold prices rose by 1.4%, reaching a weekly high of $3424.79 per ounce, just $70 below the historical record of $3500.10 set in April [3] - The ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East are expected to be a primary driver for gold prices in the short term, with potential for further increases if conflicts escalate [4][5] Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Impact - Recent U.S. inflation data showed a lower-than-expected increase, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 0.1% month-over-month, leading to a reassessment of Federal Reserve monetary policy and boosting gold prices [3][5] - The market is anticipating a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could further support gold prices [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices surged over 10%, with WTI crude reaching $74.99 per barrel and Brent crude at $76.48 per barrel, amid fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East [6] - Analysts warn that if tensions escalate, oil prices could potentially rise to $120-$130 per barrel, particularly if Iran retaliates against U.S. or Israeli targets [6] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are causing significant concern in the oil market, as the region accounts for one-third of global oil production [6]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant gains in the oil and natural gas sector, with notable stocks such as Keli Co. rising by 26%, Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit, and potential gains in other companies like Huaneng Gas and Beiken Energy [1] - Gold-related stocks also performed well, with Cuihua Jewelry reaching the daily limit and West Gold nearing the limit, alongside other companies showing gains [1] ETF Performance - Major ETFs in the oil and gas sector experienced substantial increases, with the Jiashi Fund's S&P Oil & Gas ETF rising by 7.68% and the Fuguo Fund's version increasing by 7.45% [3] - Other ETFs, including the Energy Chemical ETF and Oil & Gas Resource ETF, also showed positive performance, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [3] Geopolitical Impact - The geopolitical situation escalated with Israel's attacks on Iran, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude increasing over 9% to $75.76 per barrel, marking a new high since April [5] - Gold prices also surged, with spot gold rising by 1.5% to over $3430 per ounce, the highest since May [5] Oil and Gold Market Dynamics - The Israeli military's actions against Iran are expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while rising geopolitical tensions are likely to keep oil prices strong [7] - The recent increase in oil prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over oil production safety in the Middle East [7] ETF Composition and Characteristics - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF tracks the S&P Oil & Gas Upstream Stocks Total Return Index, which includes a diverse range of companies primarily focused on upstream oil and gas development [9][11] - The index consists of 53 components, employing an equal-weighted methodology that favors smaller companies, thus presenting a higher risk-reward profile compared to market-cap weighted indices [11]

Group 1 - Israeli Defense Forces launched multiple airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, claiming Iran has the capability to produce multiple nuclear weapons in the short term [2] - The military action has escalated tensions in the Middle East, leading to a surge in gold stocks in the Hong Kong market, with notable increases in companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Shandong Gold Mining [3][4] - The international gold price surged over $50, breaking the $3430 per ounce mark, reflecting its status as a "ultimate safe-haven asset" [5] Group 2 - The international oil market experienced significant volatility, with WTI crude oil prices soaring over 10% to reach $75 per barrel due to concerns over potential blockades in the Strait of Hormuz [6] - The recent military actions have triggered a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a weakening US dollar [8][10] - Analysts are closely monitoring whether gold prices can reach new historical highs, with current prices nearing the previous record closing high of $3469.80 per ounce [11]

Rystad Energy石油部门主管Mukesh Sahdev则提供数据支撑，指出伊朗原油产量已从2019年低谷恢复至 400万桶/日水平，其中中国采购量增长构成重要支撑。他认为，伊朗可能采取的报复行动以及对霍尔木 兹海峡的封锁，对原油供应构成风险，不过鉴于美国宣称的谈判目标，冲突不太可能升级为全面战争。 西太平洋银行大宗商品主管Robert Renney从军事行动特征展开分析，认为本次精准打击伊朗军方高层 及核设施的行动，更像是一次性战略威慑而非全面战争开端，但强调"周末期间需警惕伊朗对以色列本 土的直接报复，这可能导致油价突破1月高点"。该机构仍维持中长期看空立场，预判三季度油价可能下 探60-65美元区间，四季度存在跌破60美元风险。 航运市场已率先作出反应。Oil Brokerage全球航运研究主管Anoop Singh指出，中东海湾区域集中着全球 15%的超大型原油运输船队，地缘风险升级将直接推高保险费用与航线成本。齐盛期货分析师高建基于 历史数据模型测算，参照前两轮伊以冲突后的市场反应，本次原油价格短期或存在3-5美元的上涨空 间。 面对复杂局势，国投安信期货首席能源分析师高明宇提出双轨策略：建 ...

综合来看，短期内黄金仍具备较强的上涨潜力，尤其是在地缘政治风险和降息预期双重驱动下。但投资 者需警惕通胀压力和贸易政策的不确定性可能带来的回调风险。对于长期投资者而言，黄金作为多元化 投资组合中的避险资产，其价值依然不容忽视。 此外，美元走势和国债收益率的动态也将继续影响金价。如果美元指数进一步下行，且国债收益率维持 低位，黄金的上涨动能将更加充足。值得注意的是，高盛近期将美国未来12个月经济衰退概率从35%下 调至30%，并上调2025年GDP增长预测至1.25%，反映了市场对中美贸易协议达成的乐观情绪。然而， 贸易政策的不确定性依然存在，特朗普表示将在未来几周向多个国家发送贸易条款信函，这可能为市场 带来新的波动。地缘政治风险对金价的支撑作用不容小觑。历史上，每当中东地区发生重大冲突或紧张 局势升级时，黄金往往成为资金的避风港。当前，伊朗与美国之间的对峙、地区军事基地的潜在冲突风 险，都为金价提供了坚实的上涨动能。如果金价突破3400美元/盎司的心理关口，尽管在3417美元和 3431美元可能遭遇小阻力，但最终有望挑战历史新高。这种乐观预测进一步强化了市场对黄金的看涨情 绪。 亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡， ...

加密货币市场，迎来一则重大利空消息！ 6月13日，以色列对伊朗发动空袭。据悉，以军对伊朗的打击会"持续多日"。目前，以色列已关闭领空，禁止任何航班进出。以色列国防军称，正准备应对伊朗的猛 烈回击。另据最新消息，伊朗宣布关闭该国领空，直至另行通知。 当地时间13日，伊朗武装部队发言人称，以色列将付出"沉重代价"。 地缘政治风险，是加密货币面临的重要风险之一。以色列和伊朗的冲突，给全球市场带来了不确定性，投资者纷纷撤出高风险资产， 以比特币为首的加密货币集体 跳水，截至券商中国记者发稿，比特币跌近5%，以太坊、艾达币、Solana等跌超10%。Coinglass数据显示，刚刚过去的24小时内，加密货币市场全网合约爆仓超11 亿美元，爆仓人数达到24万人，其中超九成为多单爆仓。 此外，美股股指期货也大幅下挫，纳指期货盘中一度跌超2%。截至发稿时，纳指期货跌1.73%，标普500指数期货跌1.67%，道指期货一度跌1.52%。 加密货币跳水，24万人爆仓 6月13日，加密货币市场遭遇了一波抛售潮，比特币价格从10.84万美元的高位，一度杀跌至10.27万美元；以太坊则从2640美元，最低跌至2458美元。 截至券商中 ...

| 元用用具 | 贵金属日评20250613: 关税仍未显著推升美国生产通胀,以色列空袭伊朗牵动地缘风险 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-06-12 | 2025-06-11 | 2025-06-06 | 收盘价 | 777.54 | 783. 24 | 1.92 | 785. 16 | 7.62 | | | | | 成交重 | 165488.00 | 272195.00 | 52, 710. 00 | 218198.00 | -53, 997.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 172351.00 | 168745.00 | 178314.00 | -5, 963.00 | 3, 606. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17847.00 | 17847.00 | 17817.00 | 30. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

Group 1 - The core concern is the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to significant increases in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures rising over 13% to surpass $78 per barrel [1][3] - The market is experiencing its largest weekly gain since 2022, recovering losses from earlier in the year due to global trade tensions and OPEC+ production increases [3] - There are fears of potential supply disruptions, with the Brent crude oil spot price structure showing a deepening backwardation, indicating tight short-term supply [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, have considerable idle capacity that could theoretically compensate for any potential loss in Iranian production [4][5] - However, potential retaliatory actions from Iran, such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, could complicate the utilization of this capacity [5] - The geopolitical risks are prompting the oil market to factor in higher risk premiums for potential supply interruptions [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the weakening of US high - frequency employment data and the intensification of the Middle - East geopolitical situation have increased market risk - aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts. Domestically, the A - share market is in a sideways shock, and attention should be paid to the release of May financial and economic data [2][3]. - Precious metals are boosted by factors such as the decline in US inflation and geopolitical risks. Gold is expected to maintain a high - volatility trend, while silver may have short - term profit - taking pressure but its catch - up rally is still worth expecting [4][5]. - The copper price is expected to fall from a high and enter an adjustment phase due to trade policy disturbances, although supply - side tightness can support the medium - term price [6][7]. - The aluminum price is in a favorable pattern due to factors such as the slowdown of inflation, the decline of inventory to a low level, and the weakening of the US dollar index [8][9]. - The alumina price is in a short - term stalemate and shows an oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the realization of supply increments and cost support [10][11]. - The zinc price is in a weak operation, with the decline trend slowed down due to inventory reduction, but the fundamental weak pattern remains unchanged [12]. - The lead price is oscillating strongly in the short term, with support from supply restrictions and pressure from inventory accumulation and weak consumption [13]. - The tin price is expected to maintain an oscillating and convergent trend, and attention should be paid to inventory data [14]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to continue its low - level weak oscillation as the industry enters the off - season and social inventory rises slightly [15][16]. - The lithium carbonate price may reach a new low in the near future, but the movement of in - market funds needs to be observed [17][18]. - The nickel price is oscillating at a low level, with no significant new drivers in the short term [19][20]. - The oil price is oscillating, and if the sixth round of US - Iran talks releases a mild signal, the oil price may fall from a high [21]. - The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the weak supply - demand situation [22]. - The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure as the spot market is weak and port inventory increases [23][24]. - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to stage adjustments [25][26]. - The palm oil price may oscillate in the short term, supported by factors such as the increase in India's import volume [27][28]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented, including both domestic (SHFE) and international (LME) markets [29]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, data such as the closing prices of SHFE and LME copper, warehouse receipts, inventory, spot quotes, and price spreads are provided and compared between June 12 and June 11 [30]. - Similar data for nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean and rapeseed meal are also presented and compared for different time points [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37].