Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the Chinese pig industry is undergoing a significant adjustment in production capacity, particularly focusing on reducing the number of breeding sows to stabilize pig prices and mitigate the cyclical volatility of the market [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has announced a plan to reduce the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million heads to prevent extreme fluctuations in production and prices [1]. - As of June, the national pig inventory was 424 million heads, with breeding sows at 40.43 million heads, which is 103.7% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a need for capacity adjustment [2]. - The current pig cycle is the sixth, characterized by shorter cycles, increased short-term volatility, and a supply-demand imbalance where supply is strong but demand is weak [3]. Price Trends - The price of live pigs has reached a new low for the year at 13.77 yuan/kg as of August 10, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 13.9% since the beginning of the year [2][5]. - The price drop has significantly impacted the profitability of listed pig companies, with many reporting double-digit declines in sales revenue in July compared to the previous year [1][5]. Company Performance - Major listed companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs have reported declines in sales volume and revenue due to the seasonal drop in demand and low prices [6][7]. - For instance, Muyuan Foods sold 6.355 million pigs in July, a decrease of 9.5% month-on-month, with a sales revenue of 11.639 billion yuan, down 10.41% year-on-year [6]. - Smaller companies also faced challenges, with some reporting their lowest sales volumes of the year in July [6]. Future Outlook - The ongoing production capacity adjustments are expected to have a long-term impact on pig prices, with potential for price recovery if capacity reduction is significant [3]. - The industry is likely to transition towards a more stable and high-quality development phase, with larger companies benefiting from improved cost control and cash flow capabilities [1][7].

随着开学季、中秋国庆节日提振有望反弹，但是生猪利多支撑因素减少，反弹空间受限，仔猪市场补栏 积极性不高，预计后期仔猪价格或继续低位运行。（滨州市发展和改革委员会 吴小兵、孙洁） 上半年仔猪价格呈震荡波动趋势，第一阶段在元宵节后仔猪价格突涨至第一高点位530元/头（6公 斤），第二阶段5月初涨至上半年最高位620元/头（6公斤），第三阶段5月底国家相关部门协调去产 能，叫停二次育肥销售后，6-7月份仔猪价格进入回落期。本月开始牧原新订单签订，在国家进一步去 产能政策影响下价格下调明显。 中国发展网讯 惠民牧原价格监测显示，本周（8月5日）仔猪市场交易价格拐点向下明显，仔猪（6公 斤）市场交易价格380元/头，较上月同期相比下降20.83%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs increased, with the main contract 2511 rising 2.38% weekly. The supply side sees an increase in the number of pigs for sale and a decrease in the weight of pigs for sale, while the demand side is currently weak but is expected to improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. The current spot price is falling due to increased supply and weak demand, but the near - month contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline in the short term due to basis repair. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers are selling more pigs with lower weights, and the government has proposed measures to control production capacity. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has recovered slightly, but high temperatures still suppress the willingness to buy pork. It is expected that demand will improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. Overall, the increase in the number of pigs for sale and weak current demand lead to a decline in the spot price, but the near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position decreased, and there were 380 futures warehouse receipts [12]. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price was 14.34 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and down 3.04% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 31.24 yuan/kg, down 1.48 yuan/kg from last week and 8.2% from last month [27]. - **Pork and Sows Prices**: The national pork market price was 25.21 yuan/kg on July 31, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The pig - to - grain ratio was 6.05 as of July 30, down 0.11 from the previous week and below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, up 10,000 month - on - month and 0.12% year - on - year, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. In July, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly [41]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, up 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In July, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased [44]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In July, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs was 123.32 kg, down 0.21 kg from last week [48]. Industry Profit and Related Factors - **Livestock Farming Profit**: As of August 8, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 134.14 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 17.36 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 45.13 yuan/head, up 1.27 yuan/head month - on - month. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.31 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.15 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.15 yuan/head [53]. - **Pork Import**: From January to June 2025, China imported 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level [58]. - **Substitute Product Price**: As of the week of August 8, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.90 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from last week [61]. - **Feed Price and Production**: As of August 8, the spot price of soybean meal was 3015.43 yuan/ton, up 37.72 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2395.59 yuan/ton, down 7.16 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 930.53, down 0.6% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, up 175,600 tons month - on - month [67][70][75]. - **CPI**: As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 32nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 26.94%, up 0.11 percentage points from last week and 3.27 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.66%, the same as last week; the frozen - product storage rate was 17.50%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million, down 6.53% from the previous month. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Pig - Related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not provide specific analysis [88][90]

表现强于9月合约，站上万四关口，操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 90 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 59598 | 626 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 380 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -18400 | -209 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元 ...

Group 1 - The company has indicated that the overall market supply and demand situation has improved due to dual influences from supply-side capacity adjustments and rapid growth in certain segments such as electronics, electrical appliances, and wind power [1] - The company is actively monitoring market dynamics and has a comprehensive pricing mechanism in place [1] - Product prices will be determined based on market demand and the company's operational strategy [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term prices are dominated by the slaughter rhythm, with repeated fluctuations. The current slaughter volume has recovered from a low level, and increased supply is pressuring the near - month prices to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is recommended to gradually take profits on short positions in the 2509 contract and wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the futures main contract for live pigs is 14,010 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the main contract position is 58,972 lots, up 23,262 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 380 lots, up 80 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 18,191 lots, up 2,462 lots [2] Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu is 15,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main live pig basis is - 10 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, up 40,000 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is 0.1%, up 0.2 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,395.1 yuan/ton, down 2.94 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 928.21, up 4.13; the monthly output of feed is 27,621,000 tons, up 981,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 116.78 yuan/head, down 45.39 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 43.85 yuan/head, down 18.31 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 32,160,000 heads, up 1,390,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 470.76 billion yuan, up 12.94 billion yuan [2] Industry News - On August 6, 2025, the daily national slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 255,760 heads, up 1.11% from the previous day; on Wednesday, the 2611 contract of live pigs closed up 0.68%. The supply side shows that the slaughter rhythm of the breeding side has accelerated, and the supply has increased. The demand side shows that the supply of live pigs is sufficient, the demand in some areas has recovered, the operating rate of slaughterhouses has rebounded slightly, but high temperatures still suppress people's willingness to buy pork, resulting in a limited rebound [2]

2025年至今，生猪期现货市场供需博弈加剧，呈现"现货上下两难、期价重心震荡上移"的格局。从产能 角度来看，今年生猪供应宽松，但未出现往年的大跌行情，受养殖端缩量提价、政策调控加码等因素影 响，价格整体走势平稳，行业仍处于磨底阶段。全国生猪现货价格在13500~16500元／吨区间震荡，高 点出现在春节前，低点出现在端午节后。我的农产品网数据显示，8月初，全国生猪出栏均价为14.10元 ／千克，低价区报13.20元／千克。 今年以来，生猪期货主力合约价格波动率整体呈现下降趋势，处于较低水平。上半年期货市场整体 呈"弱预期"走势，市场预期后市供应压力较大，对猪价持悲观预期，年初主力合约价格最低跌至12600 元／吨附近。但在现货市场价格下跌幅度有限的情况下，受期现回归驱动，期货近月合约价格出现向上 修复的补涨行情，彼时正向套利策略普遍表现较好。随后，受4月上旬贸易摩擦、7月生猪行业"反内 卷"政策预期等因素影响，生猪期货价格进入震荡反弹阶段，重心曲折上行。7月23日，主力合约最高涨 至15150元／吨。不过，目前仍处于季节性需求淡季，现货价格大幅贴水期货价格，主力合约价格冲高 回落，7月底震荡回调。临近交割月， ...

后非瘟时代，随着行业逐步向优势产能集中、产能去化放缓、猪价波动幅度趋弱，周期逐步弱化，生猪 养殖业进入微利时代。同时，防疫水平抬升及养殖效率优化共同驱动全行业成本中枢下移，但现阶段不 同养殖主体之间成本方差较大，单公斤成本能拉开2元/千克甚至更高的差距，具备成本优势和疫病防控 优势的规模养殖主体仍有望获取超额利润并实现盈利累积。 看得见的手如何引导行业变化? 年初以来猪价长期在成本线以上运行，产业整体保持着较好盈利。能繁母猪产能自2025年4月开始高位 回升，截止5月底，我国能繁母猪存栏约4042万头，高于正常保有量3900万头的基准线。2025年年中以 来，农业农村部、发改委等相关部门采取多种措施引导产能调控，促进生猪养殖业高质量发展——通过 引导降重、限制二育销售等方式调整短期生猪供应;严控新增产能，引导能繁调减100万头左右至3950万 头，预计2026年的生猪供需格局亦将显著改善;长期看，则通过环保政策、融资渠道收紧等多种方式引 导能繁母猪降至合理水平。 招商证券主要观点如下： 政策端的变与不变：民生导向&高质量发展并重 过往十多年来，在环保政策执行及非瘟大考下，生猪养殖业低效产能加速退出，行业养殖效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent supply-side policies in the pig farming industry aim to stabilize pig prices and market conditions, with a focus on reducing breeding stock and controlling output weight, leading to a gradual improvement in production capacity regulation [1][6]. Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to cost efficiency, with leading companies gaining significant advantages [1][6]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase due to stricter environmental regulations and production capacity controls [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The number of pigs undergoing secondary fattening is decreasing due to tightened supply, and profitability for secondary fattening farmers has significantly declined [3][4]. - As of July, the average monthly price of pigs was approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, down 1.1 yuan/kg from January and 4.3 yuan/kg from the previous year [3][4]. - The profitability for self-breeding farmers has dropped from 350 yuan/head at the beginning of the year to around 113 yuan/head by July [4]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have emphasized the need to control the number of breeding sows and limit secondary fattening, with specific weight controls for pigs being implemented [5][6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has held meetings with leading enterprises to enforce these production capacity regulations [6][9]. Cost Management - Leading companies are focusing on reducing production costs, with major players like Muyuan and Wens aiming for costs as low as 12 yuan/kg by the end of the year [7][8]. - The production efficiency of leading firms has improved significantly, with PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) reaching between 25 to 32 in top companies [6][7]. Future Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to enter a phase of "micro-profit balance and reduced volatility" in the second half of the year, with supply pressures potentially exceeding demand [10][11]. - The national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.43 million heads, slightly above the normal level, indicating a need for continued capacity regulation [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Under the guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture for orderly slaughter, some enterprises' early slaughter and the release of previously second - fattened pigs increase supply pressure. However, the considerable spread between standard and fat pigs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the bottom of pig prices [4]. - Medium - term: Piglets showed an increasing trend from January to June, so the second half of 2025 is expected to see an increase in the pig market, and over - optimism should be avoided [4]. - Long - term: The "anti - involution" process takes time. If capacity control measures are implemented, the number of pig slaughter is expected to decline in about ten months, which may push up far - month pig prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Pig prices: The national average pig price decreased by 0.94 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg this month. Prices in various regions also declined [3][9]. - Sow prices: The average spot price of culled sows decreased by 0.78 yuan to 10.29 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 0.95 yuan to 1,641.3 yuan/head [3][11]. - Piglet prices: The average price of 7kg piglets remained stable at 444.76 yuan/head, while the average price of 15kg piglets decreased by 48.27 yuan to 468.55 yuan/head [3][13]. 3.2 Key Data - Spot prices: Most prices showed changes, such as the national average price of 15kg piglets decreasing by 0.27 yuan to 36.37 yuan/kg [7]. - Short - term supply: The national pig inventory increased by 7160 thousand heads to 424470 thousand heads, and the average slaughter weight increased by 0.18 kg to 123.67 kg [7]. - Medium - term supply: The number of piglet births increased by 10.63 thousand heads to 554.02 thousand heads, and the survival rate remained at 92.7% [7]. - Long - term supply: The inventory of breeding sows increased by 10 thousand heads to 40430 thousand heads, and the culling volume of breeding sows increased by 3296 heads to 109413 heads [7]. - Demand side: The national pig slaughter rate increased by 0.05% to 26.8%, and the Shanghai Xijiao white - striped meat arrival volume decreased by 1100 heads to 5600 heads [7]. - Policy: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.03 to 5.8 [7]. - Cost: The total cost of purchasing piglets increased by 16.32 yuan to 1719.30 yuan/head, and the self - breeding cost decreased by 7.68 yuan to 1585.76 yuan/head [7]. - Profit: The self - breeding profit increased by 0.57 yuan to 29.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 0.43 yuan to - 193.12 yuan/head [7]. 3.3 Short - term Supply - Inventory and slaughter: The official inventory in June was 424470 thousand heads, and the planned slaughter of sample enterprises in July increased. The average slaughter weight increased, and the post - slaughter weight of white - striped pigs decreased [23]. - Speculation: The spread between standard and fat pigs widened, and the proportion of large pigs remained at a high level [25]. 3.4 Medium - term Supply - Piglets: In June, the piglet survival rate remained stable, the number of piglet births increased, and the piglet feed sales increased slightly. The pig supply in Q4 2025 is expected to be high [30]. 3.5 Long - term Supply - Breeding sows: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased, the culling volume increased slightly, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter decreased slightly [32]. 3.6 Demand - Slaughter and sales: Affected by the off - season, demand was weak. The slaughter rate increased slightly, the fresh - sales rate decreased, the daily slaughter volume decreased, and the slaughter profit increased [37]. 3.7 Cost Analysis - Feed: The corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased [44]. - Pigs: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding both decreased [46]. 3.8 Breeding Profit - Pigs: The self - breeding profit decreased, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased further [48]. 3.9 Price Ratio - The national pig - grain ratio decreased, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio remained high [50].