美联储理事沃勒：不需要太多就能扭转劳动力市场。 ...

【要闻速递】 美国劳工部报告显示，截至7月12日当周，初请失业金人数减少7000人至22.1万人，创三个月来最低水 平，低于市场预期的23.5万人。续请失业金人数小幅增加至195.6万人，但整体仍处于历史低位，表明劳 动力市场稳定支持了消费支出。 周五（7月18日）亚盘时段，现货白银震荡上行，最新白银价格交投于38.17美元，涨幅0.13%，美国劳 动力市场数据表现强劲，为美联储推迟降息提供了支撑，也对白银走势形成了短期压力。 全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓较上日减少124.34吨，当前持仓量为14694.95吨。 【技术分析】 现货白银昨日开盘在37.914的位置后行情先拉升给出38.008的位置后行情强势回落，日线最低给到了 37.511的位置后行情强势拉升，日线最高触及到了38.16的位置后行情整理，日线最终收线在了38.128的 位置后行情以一根下影线很长的锤头形态收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日银价目标看38.2和38.4- 38.6。 美国失业救济申请人数连续第五周下降，降至4月中旬以来的最低水平，显示就业市场保持韧性。经历5 月和6月的上升趋势后，每周申领人数已 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a rate cut this month to support a weakening labor market, marking a significant divergence from most of his colleagues who believe the job market remains strong [1][3][4] - Waller's speech emphasizes that inflation is near target levels and that the risks of a labor market deterioration warrant a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [3][4] - He identifies a precarious balance in the labor market, supported by both hard data (employment numbers, unemployment rates) and soft data (business hiring intentions, consumer confidence) [3][4] Group 2 - Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are the only two Fed officials publicly supporting a rate cut this month, highlighting their minority position among those advocating for maintaining current rates [4] - Waller has previously held differing views from colleagues, particularly regarding the temporary impact of tariffs on inflation, and he stresses the need to focus on core inflation, which is close to the FOMC's 2% target [4][5] - Despite recent data showing that tariffs have begun to raise some prices, core inflation has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, alleviating concerns about persistent inflation [4][5] Group 3 - Waller warns that the risks of a weakening job market are significant enough to justify a rate cut, noting that while the economy is still growing, momentum has slowed considerably [5] - Other Fed officials express caution regarding the potential impacts of tariffs, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before deciding on rate cuts [5] - Market reactions indicate that investors expect the Fed to maintain rates this month, with a slightly higher than 50% probability of a rate cut in September, reflecting cautious sentiment amid internal Fed disagreements [5] Group 4 - Waller is considered a potential candidate to succeed Powell as Fed Chair after his term ends in May, and his current stance aligns with President Trump's calls for looser monetary policy, adding a political dimension to his economic views [6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut to support a weakening labor market, contrasting with most policymakers who believe employment remains strong [1][2] - Waller emphasizes that inflation is close to the target level of 2%, suggesting that the risks of rising inflation are limited, and that policy should focus on potential inflation rather than tariff impacts [1][2] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. showed lower-than-expected growth in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of such trends, although recent tariffs have begun to affect prices of certain goods [1] Group 2 - Waller notes that inflation expectations remain stable and wage growth has not accelerated, which alleviates concerns about persistent inflation [2] - The risk of a weakening job market has increased significantly, prompting the need for a rate cut, despite the economy still growing, albeit at a slower pace [2] - Other policymakers express concerns about tariffs impacting inflation and prefer to delay rate cuts, indicating a divergence in views within the Federal Reserve [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should not wait for issues in the labor market to implement interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes the importance of proactive measures in monetary policy [1] - Waller suggests that timely interest rate adjustments can help mitigate potential economic downturns [1] - The statement reflects a broader strategy to maintain economic stability rather than reactive measures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Increasing evidence suggests that the labor market is weakening, as indicated by Federal Reserve Governor Waller [1] Group 1 - The labor market is showing signs of deterioration, which may impact economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly expressed concerns about the labor market and emphasized the desire to avoid further weakness in this area [1] Group 1 - Daly's comments indicate a cautious approach towards the current state of the labor market, highlighting the importance of maintaining its strength [1] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic indicators to ensure that the labor market does not deteriorate further [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Daly highlighted that the economy has achieved robust growth and the labor market remains strong, but concerns persist regarding the lack of price stability [1] Economic Performance - The economy is experiencing steady growth, indicating positive trends in various sectors [1] - The labor market is performing strongly, suggesting low unemployment rates and high job creation [1] Price Stability Concerns - Despite the positive economic indicators, there are ongoing worries about achieving price stability, which could impact inflation and monetary policy decisions [1]

美联储理事库格勒：通胀仍高于2%目标，劳动力市场稳定且富有韧性。 ...

英国央行货币政策委员曼恩：委员会对需求状况的实际状态以及其在劳动力市场中的表现存在不同看 法。 ...