.01 楼市下行，房子难卖，急的何止是开发商炒房客，那些即将结婚、孩子即将上学的家庭，也在为买房着急不已，土地收入锐减，地方也在加大刺激力度。 然而住建部部长则表示，未来楼市的发展方向将会转变。2025年起楼市或将迎来大调整，强刺激即将到来。 房地产市场的变迁 先是2015年开始快速上涨，让年轻人望楼兴叹，只能降低品质租房生存。再到2020年疫情冲击，全国房地产开发投资以及房屋销售同比快速下行， 紧接着，银行信贷政策的收紧，房企融资愈发困难，多重压力下，近两年全国房地产市场经历了数次降价，一些三四线城市更是跳水严重。 持续性的价格下行并没有激起人们的购房意愿上升，反而加速买房子的信心下挫，持币者观望情绪浓厚。 也正是同一时期，房价的持续下行也浪炒房客群体心理发生了转变，纷纷加速逃离，加剧二手房市场挂牌量激增。 而多空双方的较量，一旦空方占据优势，想要逆转就没那么容易，即使这几年几次阶段性的政策放宽，都没能达到预期的效果，现在的房地产市场急需一 支"强心针"。 随着住建部部长释放出未来楼市的变迁信号，业内开始认为，2025起，楼市可能会迎来"大调整"。 .02 强刺激再度来袭 1.现房销售。 这几年利好政策不断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has entered a long-term adjustment phase since 2022, affecting both second and third-tier cities initially, and now extending to first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2023. The market is experiencing significant declines in sales volume and prices, indicating a challenging environment for property owners, especially those with multiple properties [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing is expected to decrease by 11.3% year-on-year, with sales revenue declining by 15.7% [1]. - The new residential price index for 300 cities is projected to drop by 3.2% year-on-year, while the second-hand residential price index is expected to fall by 5.1% [1]. - Property prices in first-tier cities have seen a decline of over 30%, with prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropping from over 90,000 yuan per square meter to over 60,000 yuan [5]. Group 2: Challenges for Property Owners - Families owning two or more properties, which account for approximately 45% of households, are facing five major challenges due to the market downturn [3]. - The first challenge is the continuous depreciation of property values, making it difficult for owners to realize gains [5]. - The second challenge is the increasing difficulty in liquidating properties, with many owners needing to sell at 10-15% below market value to achieve sales [7]. - The third challenge involves rising holding costs, including increased property service costs, which are projected to rise by 15% in 2024 [9]. - The fourth challenge is the growing difficulty of "renting to pay mortgages," as rental demand decreases and rental prices decline in both first and second-tier cities [12]. - The fifth challenge is the impending introduction of property taxes, which will impose additional financial burdens on families with multiple properties [15].

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing a paradox where, despite ongoing government stimulus measures, the market remains sluggish with a trend of "declining volume and prices" [1] - The demographic shift towards an aging population is leading to a decrease in first-time homebuyers, contributing to downward pressure on housing prices [4] - The imbalance between housing prices and income levels is significant, with ratios in major cities far exceeding those in developed countries, indicating a potential for price corrections [8] - The expansion of property tax trials is expected to increase costs for multi-property owners, potentially leading to a surge in second-hand property listings and further downward pressure on prices [10] - The government plans to accelerate the introduction of affordable housing, which may divert demand from the commercial housing market and expedite market adjustments [12] - A growing trend among young people to prefer renting over buying is evident, with a significant decline in the belief that homeownership is essential, indicating a long-term decline in demand for commercial housing [14] - The overall shift in real estate policy from promoting growth to risk prevention suggests a long-term adjustment phase for the market, aiming to align high housing prices with their residential purpose [15] Summary by Categories Demographic Changes - China has entered a moderately aging society, with the population aged 60 and above expected to reach 296 million by the end of 2024 and 400 million by 2035, leading to fewer first-time homebuyers [4] Housing Price and Income Disparity - In major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, the housing price-to-income ratio is around 40, while in second and third-tier cities it ranges from 20 to 25, indicating a significant disconnect from local income levels [8] Taxation and Policy Changes - The property tax pilot program is expanding, with rates set between 0.5% and 1.2% based on property value, which will increase costs for owners of multiple properties and could lead to a spike in second-hand listings [10] Affordable Housing Initiatives - The government has announced plans to invest in 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units per year, to address housing needs for low-income families [12] Shifts in Housing Preferences - A notable shift in attitudes among young people is observed, with the percentage believing in the necessity of homeownership dropping from 78% in 2020 to 42% in 2025, while those preferring to rent increased from 15% to 36% [14] Market Adjustment Trends - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of excessive growth to a long-term adjustment, with policies now focused on risk prevention rather than growth stimulation [15]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China is experiencing a long-term adjustment, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, prompting various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging home purchases [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing is expected to decrease by 11.3% year-on-year, with sales revenue declining by 15.7% [1]. - The new residential price index in 300 cities is projected to drop by 3.2% year-on-year, while the second-hand residential price index is expected to fall by 5.1%, marking the third consecutive year of overall price decline [1]. Group 2: Government Policies - Local governments, except for core areas in first-tier cities, have largely relaxed purchase restrictions and increased the upper limit for housing provident fund loans [3]. - Banks have reduced mortgage rates to below 3% and lowered down payment ratios to 1.5% [3]. - Tax authorities have provided exemptions on deed tax and value-added tax for homebuyers [3]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Jack Ma emphasizes that housing should be for living, not speculation, suggesting that it may be a good time for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes [3][5]. - Li Ka-shing notes that the market is returning to rationality, and decisions should be based on personal financial situations and family needs when prices reach reasonable levels [5]. Group 4: Buyer Recommendations - For first-time and upgrading homebuyers, 2025 is seen as a favorable time to purchase due to a significant average price drop of 30% since 2022 and ongoing supportive policies [6]. - Speculative buyers are advised to "continue to observe" as there remains considerable market bubble, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, where price-to-income ratios exceed 40 [7][8]. - Many industry insiders believe that while core areas in first-tier cities may see price increases, third and fourth-tier cities have already experienced significant declines, suggesting a more stable environment for potential buyers in those areas [8].

关税如何影响行业配置？20250512 摘要 • 中美贸易谈判取得进展，但即使关税降至 54%-74%，仍高于历史水平， 将持续影响企业利润、实体经济和外需，并可能推高美国通胀。市场短期 情绪提振，但需关注实际需求和通胀影响。 • 美联储面临经济增长放缓和通胀压力的两难境地，可能采取降息、降准等 措施，但市场反应不振，投资者对其效果存疑。美联储政策需关注全球经 济环境及其他央行政策动向。 • 亚洲货币汇率近期波动与金管局干预、全球贸易环境变化和美元资产安全 性有关。台湾寿险公司在汇兑和风险敞口方面存在风险，美元资产未能起 到良好保护作用，加剧了市场波动。 • 房地产市场在 2024 年二季度开始修复，但近期出现疲弱迹象。在对等关 税背景下，需重新评估房地产行业。预计房地产市场将继续经历调整，但 总体趋势有望保持稳定。 • 4 月份数据显示，对美国出口下滑，对东南亚出口增加，可能涉及转口贸 易。未来需关注新兴市场是否会受到更多限制，以及转口贸易是否会遇到 阻碍。 Q&A 关税谈判的进展如何，未来可能会对市场和行业产生哪些影响？ 美联储政策目前面临明显的两难境地。一方面需要应对经济增长放缓的问题， 另一方面又要控 ...

众所周知，国内房价从2022年就开始出现下跌，先是像天津、郑州、石家庄等二三线城市。在进入到2023年之后，上海、深圳等一线城市的房价也开始出现 下跌。现在全国房价已经从最高位跌去了30%。 与此同时，现在无论是新房，还是二手房的成交量都出现了明显下滑。为此，开发商不得不降价促销，而随着二手房的挂牌量出现激增，现在房东即使低于 市场价抛售，也很难能够获得成交。 而为了刺激国内房地产市场成交回暖。从2024年开始，国内各地纷纷放开限购政策。现在除了一线城市的核心区域之外，绝大多数城市都放开了限购政策。 与此同时，现在银行已经把房贷利率降至3%以内，首付比例也降至15%。尽管各种救市政策不断出台，但效果并不明显。楼市调整趋势已经确定。 而面对当前房地产市场调整的趋势，对于拥有二套及以上的家庭的影响却非常深远。根据央行前些年的调查数据，国内41.5%的家庭拥有两套及以上房产， 如果再加上这几年新增的家庭，拥有两套以上房产的家庭占比可能已经达到45%，而这些家庭未来将面临以下这四大挑战： 挑战一，未来资产缩水将成常态 特别是像上海、深圳等一线城市，房价与收入之比达到40，由于当地居民收入下降，已经支撑不了高房价。所以 ...

其次，房屋库存压力严峻，目前全国面临约1.2亿套空置房，尤其是三四线城市，许多新建楼盘甚至多年难以变现，造成了买方市场的困境。据报道，在 某些新区晚上灯光熄灭率不足10%，形同"鬼城"，如此多的空房让快速销售变得几乎不可能。 在考虑2025年投资方向时，存银行与购房之间的选择显得尤为重要。对于手握50万现金的人群，该如何抉择呢？广州的张婷婷分享了她的心路历程，她以 50万在广州花都购买了一套公寓，没想到短短三年后，房价竟然缩水超过20万，甚至面临变现难题。这样的经历让她倍感焦虑，同时也引发了对于房地产 市场未来的深刻思考。 尽管房价有所下跌，一些尚未购房的人却在政策利好的推动下重新燃起了购房的热情。不过，这样的情绪并不是所有人都认同，有人仍在权衡：50万究竟 是买房还是存入银行更为明智。对此，众多专家给出了建议，强调在经济不稳定的背景下，保持现金流的重要性。 早在2018年，王健林便已发出警告，指出房地产的繁荣周期有限，市场已进入调整期。如今看来，他的清仓售房策略显得格外明智。在他成功的卖房过程 中，转化成的现金流让他得以在困境中自如应对。而另一位企业家曹德旺也直言不讳，认为房子只不过是水泥与砖头的堆积，金融 ...

这两年，卖房的人，着实不容易。身边有位朋友，2019年前拿出全部积蓄，又东拼西凑借了30万，全款买了一套90平米的次新房。当时想着靠手里的生意， 两年就能把债还清，开启幸福生活。 然而疫情突如其来，生意崩盘，大股东跑路，他也没钱盘下店铺，厂子只能关门。一家人要吃饭，孩子要上学，生活成本与日俱增。撑了半年，实在扛不 住，决定卖房。房子刚装修好，他满心期待能赚一笔，可挂到市场才发现，房价从当初的一万一跌到了八千出头，连首付都亏了一半。最后，他狠下心亏几 十万卖掉了房子。 后来他感慨地说："卖得早，虽然亏了，但总比眼睁睁看着它继续跌强。"这种"低价卖房求生"的现象，如今已不是个例，而是全国性的趋势。 数据显示，广州二手房挂牌超13万套，南京15万，西安11万，上海也超8万。市场冷清，一年比一年淡，成交持续下滑，挂牌量却在"爆仓"。面对这样的市 场，人们不禁要问：现在卖房，是精明，还是糊涂？ 万科创始人王石早在2018年就提出"活下去"的观点，彼时他已预判到行业风险临近，明确指出高杠杆、高周转的房地产模式必须转型。如今再看，那些没听 进去的大房企，大多数都"爆雷"了，而万科却挺了过来。王石的核心观点是：高房价不可能一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in land transfer revenue for local governments in China, primarily due to the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, with a potential recovery expected in 2025 as the market shows signs of warming up [1][20]. Group 1: Land Transfer Revenue Trends - Local government land transfer revenue has decreased for three consecutive years, with 2024 expected to generate 4.87 trillion yuan, a drop of approximately 44% compared to the historical peak in 2021 [1][3]. - Among 27 cities with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan, nearly 80% experienced a decline in land transfer revenue, with Dongguan seeing a drop of over 50% [1][7]. - Over the past five years, about half of the trillion-yuan cities have seen their land transfer revenue decrease by more than 50%, with Dongguan, Zhengzhou, and Qingdao experiencing declines exceeding 70% [9][10]. Group 2: City-Specific Revenue Analysis - In 2024, at least eight cities surpassed 100 billion yuan in land transfer revenue, including Shanghai, Beijing, and Chongqing, while cities like Nanjing and Chengdu saw declines of over 25% [7][8]. - Dongguan's land transfer revenue in 2024 was notably low, with only three out of five residential land parcels successfully auctioned, reflecting a significant downturn in market activity [8][10]. - Cities like Wuhan and Tianjin have increased their non-tax revenue collection efforts, with Wuhan's non-tax revenue growing by 46.5% due to enhanced management of state-owned assets [19]. Group 3: Market Recovery Indicators - Since March 2024, the national land market has shown signs of recovery, with cities like Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai successfully auctioning high-premium residential land [1][20]. - The increase in land auction prices indicates a renewed optimism among real estate companies regarding the core city markets, driven by improved sales and government support measures [20]. - The shift from scale-driven to quality-driven growth in the real estate sector is expected to lead to a more stable market by 2025, with a focus on improving housing quality and meeting new demand [20].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Senying Windows, reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, primarily due to adverse market conditions in the real estate sector and increased competition [1][2][3]. Revenue Performance - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 567 million yuan, a decrease of 39.71% compared to 939.65 million yuan in the previous year [2]. - The wood door and window manufacturing segment generated revenue of 403.90 million yuan, down 50.10% year-on-year, with energy-saving aluminum-clad wood windows being the main contributor, generating 382.88 million yuan, a decline of 51.53% [2]. - Conversely, the metal door and window manufacturing segment saw revenue growth of 27.17%, amounting to 145.56 million yuan, partially offsetting the overall revenue decline [2]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -42.19 million yuan, a drop of 128.90% from a profit of 145.97 million yuan in the previous year [3]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was -56.74 million yuan, reflecting a 144.42% decrease year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for the company's main business was 19.31%, down 15.10 percentage points, primarily due to insufficient capacity utilization and increased competition leading to price adjustments [3]. Cost and Expense Management - Sales expenses increased by 13.80% to 60.28 million yuan, up from 52.97 million yuan in the previous year, driven by higher employee compensation, advertising, and dealer support costs [4]. - The company is attempting to enhance market promotion efforts and expand sales channels in response to the challenging market environment [4]. Executive Compensation - The chairman's pre-tax salary for 2024 was 69,100 yuan, a further decline from 144,600 yuan in 2023, marking a continuous decrease over the past two years [5].