Core Viewpoint - Insufficient effective demand, weak terminal consumption, and low corporate investment willingness continue to suppress the price recovery space, indicating a significant gap from the annual inflation target of 2% [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The persistent low level of prices reflects the current weakness in domestic demand recovery, suggesting that policy measures need to further enhance counter-cyclical adjustments to boost overall demand [1] - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies in the second half of the year is expected to increase fiscal support, underpin investment, and enhance consumption policies [1] Group 2: Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced the arrangement of over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" project lists within the year, indicating a proactive fiscal policy stance [1] - The potential expansion of policy financial tools may positively impact manufacturing investment, while moderately loose monetary policy also has room for adjustment, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions becoming feasible [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The further issuance of "national subsidies" is anticipated to boost retail growth rates, with expected reserve increment policies including government debt limits, central bank profit remittances, and the introduction of quasi-fiscal tools [1]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August 2025, the Manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 49.4%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The production index rose to 50.8%, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase, remaining above the critical point for four consecutive months[14] - New orders index slightly increased to 49.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points, but still in the contraction zone[14] Sector Performance - Large enterprises' PMI rose to 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs were 48.9% and 46.6%, respectively[13] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, indicating relative strength in these sectors[13] Price and Inventory Trends - The main raw materials purchase price index rose to 53.3%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating expansion, while the factory price index was at 49.1%, up by 0.8 percentage points[20] - The procurement volume index increased to 50.4%, up by 0.9 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased by 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved production-sales coordination[23] Service and Construction Sector Analysis - The service sector business activity index reached 50.5%, up by 0.5 percentage points, driven by summer travel and active capital markets[24] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, with new orders index at 40.6%, down by 2.1 percentage points, indicating a significant seasonal decline[27] Risk Considerations - Real estate demand remains weak, posing a risk to overall economic recovery[4][29]

Group 1 - The meeting between the chairman of State Grid Corporation and the chairman of China Export-Import Bank focused on enhancing cooperation in policy financial tools, overseas project financing, financial services, and strategic collaboration [1][3] - Both parties expressed their intention to deepen practical cooperation based on their previous successful collaboration, aiming for mutual benefits [1]

Trade Relations - The U.S. has agreed to impose a maximum tariff rate of 15% on most EU goods, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, and timber, starting September 1, 2025 [2] - The U.S. will apply the most favored nation (MFN) tariff rate or the 15% tariff rate, whichever is higher, on EU-origin products [2] Immigration Trends - The U.S. immigrant population has decreased for the first time in 50 years, dropping to 51.9 million from 53.3 million during Trump's second term [3][4] Economic Policies - China's broad fiscal expenditure exceeded 21 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.3% [7] - China's total import and export growth rate has been steadily increasing, achieving a 3.5% growth in the first seven months of the year [8] Energy Consumption - In July, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase [11] Financial Regulations - The National Financial Regulatory Administration is actively supporting the reform of commercial health insurance and aims to establish a multi-level nursing guarantee system [9] Infrastructure Investment - A new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan will be introduced to support emerging industries and infrastructure projects [14] Housing Policies - Chengdu has set the minimum down payment ratio for public housing loans at 15%, with increased loan limits for contributors [19] Stock Market Activity - Institutions showed significant buying activity in 12 stocks, with notable net purchases in Zhongdian Xindong and Chuangyitong [33][34]

Funding & Investment - A new RMB 500 billion (approximately USD 69 billion) policy-driven financial tool is being launched [1] - The tool will focus on strategic sectors including emerging industries and infrastructure [1] - Key investment areas include digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, consumption, green and low-carbon initiatives, agriculture and rural areas, transportation and logistics, and urban infrastructure [1] Regional Activity - Multiple regions have been holding policy seminars and project preparation meetings related to the new policy-driven financial tools since May [1] - Some local governments are compiling project lists and specifying the amounts of funds to be applied for [1]

（原标题：毕马威报告：支持房地产市场止跌回稳，仍是今年经济工作重心） 毕马威中国最新发布的2025年三季度《中国经济观察》报告（以下简称"报告"）显示，下一阶段经济运 行需要关注三方面问题：一是物价低位运行，将对下一阶段内需的修复带来挑战；二是房地产仍处于修 复阶段，今年4月以来，房地产修复进程再度出现波折；三是下半年出口或将走弱，全球经济增速放 缓，叠加美国正在设定新一轮的贸易协定，将对开拓新市场带来潜在负面影响。 报告认为，在新一轮政策性金融工具的支持下，基建投资有望企稳回升。房地产方面，将进一步因城施 策释放居民住房需求，并可能提高增量资金对房地产收储、城中村和危旧房改造等领域的支持，房地产 投资动能或将在下半年阶段性企稳。 从资金层面来看，报告预计，下半年的基建投资将有三类资金来源，一是尚待发行的增量政府债券。据 财政部披露，上半年已下达超长期特别国债资金预算6,583亿元，其中"两新"3,350亿元，"两重"为3,233 亿元，下半年还剩4,767亿元可继续推进。二是前期发行尚未使用的国债、一般债资金，上半年发行尚 未形成支出的额度在0.4万亿元，这部分资金也有望在三季度加速投放。三是关注政策性金融 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of China's public budget revenue and expenditure in the first seven months of the year, with a slight increase in local revenue but a decline in central revenue [1][2] - National general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the central budget revenue was 58538 billion yuan, down 2% [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 110933 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3%, while non-tax revenue was 24906 billion yuan, an increase of 2% [2] Group 2 - Total public budget expenditure was 160737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with central expenditure at 23327 billion yuan, up 8.8% [2] - Specific areas of expenditure such as social security and employment, education, and health saw significant increases of 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively [3] - Government fund budget revenue was 23124 billion yuan, down 0.7%, with local government fund revenue declining by 1.8% [5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that fiscal policy is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for timely implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [5] - Recommendations include accelerating local debt issuance, considering the issuance of special government bonds, and enhancing investment in human capital to boost consumption [5][6] - The focus areas for fiscal support include increasing transfer income for residents, promoting consumption through trade-in programs, and accelerating public spending in technology and infrastructure [6]

Economic Overview - In July, industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in June, while the service production index rose by 5.8%[1] - External demand showed unexpected strength with exports growing by 7.2%, surpassing the expected 5.9%, while internal demand weakened with retail sales increasing by only 3.7% compared to 4.8% in June[1] Consumer Trends - Retail sales growth declined from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June and further to 3.7% in July, primarily driven by a slowdown in goods sales[1] - The sales growth of "trade-in" subsidy products fell from an average of 17.5% to 12.7%, indicating a significant impact on overall retail performance[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth dropped from 2.6% in June to 1.6% in July, with construction investment showing negative growth for the first time since August 2020, at -0.8%[1] - Manufacturing investment growth decreased from 7.5% in June to 6.2% in July, highlighting a divergence in investment performance across different sectors[2] Future Outlook - Despite potential pressures in Q4 due to high base effects and demand front-loading, there are three supporting factors for consumer growth in the second half of the year: gradual recovery in dining growth, the release of childbirth subsidies, and consumer loan interest subsidies[1] - The construction sector is expected to face continued pressure in August due to adverse weather conditions, but policy-driven financial tools may provide support in Q4[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fifth week of July, futures sentiment cooled down, and spot prices mostly had small month - on - month declines, but prices were still higher than at the end of June. Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. Container shipping prices continued to fall, and port cargo volume decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. In the industrial sector, the incremental measures from the Politburo meeting in July were slightly weaker than expected, causing futures sentiment to cool and investment product prices to decline. In the investment sector, typhoon and rainfall affected construction activities, leading to a continued decline in cement prices. In the real estate sector, the end - of - month sales rush for new homes was evident, while second - hand home sales continued to decline, in line with seasonality [4][34]. - For the bond market, short - term implementation of anti - involution policies, price transmission, and the impact of production control on industrial growth are worthy of attention. "Broad credit" disturbances may increase compared to July. Externally, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations were in line with expectations, and the market reaction was muted. Export resilience remains, but its elasticity is decreasing, and the weakening of "rush exports" may gradually materialize. Internally, the strong futures market last week driven by major infrastructure projects and "anti - involution" led to spot price increases. This week, futures sentiment cooled, and spot demand weakened due to weather conditions. Although industrial product prices generally corrected, they were still higher than before July. In the future, price increase elasticity may be limited in the short term, but the recovery trend is hard to disprove, which may support equity sentiment. Urban renewal may accelerate, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments is expected. August is the policy effect verification stage, increasing the importance of data observation [4][35]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related - Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. The wholesale price index of 200 agricultural products and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.05% and 0.03% month - on - month respectively. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% month - on - month, while vegetable prices rose, and the decline in fruit prices narrowed [4][10]. Import - Export related - Container shipping prices continued to decline. The CCFI index decreased by 2.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. From July 21st to July 27th, port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 6.5% and 4.3% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 11.5% and 13.3% year - on - year. The BDI index decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12]. Industrial related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.4% month - on - month with a narrowing increase. The price of rebar reversed from an increase to a decrease, with a 0.26% month - on - month decline in spot price. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened to 5.7%. Copper prices decreased month - on - month, affected by the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar. Glass prices also reversed from an increase to a decrease as futures market sentiment cooled [14][18][19]. Investment related - Cement prices continued to weaken, with a 1.40% month - on - month decline in the national cement price index and a narrowing decline. In the real estate sector, from July 25th to July 31st, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 25% month - on - month but decreased by 15.4% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 4.6% month - on - month but increased by 5.1% year - on - year [20][29]. Consumption - From July 1st to July 27th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 19% month - on - month compared to the same period in June but increased by 9% year - on - year. From July 21st to July 27th, retail sales decreased by 30% month - on - month and increased by 5% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.8% and 3.3% month - on - month respectively, boosted by factors such as a trade agreement between the US and Europe and supply - side constraints [30].

Group 1: Investment and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has fully allocated the 800 billion yuan "two heavy" construction project list, with 735 billion yuan of central budget investment also largely disbursed [1] - A fourth batch of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement will be allocated in October, completing the annual plan of 300 billion yuan [2] - The NDRC aims to enhance domestic demand and support new consumption development while preventing blind following and excessive competition in emerging sectors [3][4] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Economic Monitoring - The NDRC plans to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize the economy and employment [4] - The NDRC will conduct regular economic monitoring and policy research to ensure timely responses to actual needs [4] - The NDRC is focused on optimizing the artificial intelligence ecosystem and promoting its large-scale commercial application [5][6] Group 3: Logistics and Trade - The logistics cost as a percentage of GDP has decreased to 14%, achieving the lowest level since records began, saving over 130 billion yuan in logistics costs [7] - Trade cooperation with Belt and Road Initiative countries has seen a 4.7% increase in imports and exports, totaling 11.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [9] Group 4: Infrastructure and Energy - The highest cross-regional electricity transmission reached 148 million kilowatts, marking a new historical high [10] - The NDRC is working on a plan to deepen the construction of a unified national market, with inter-provincial trade sales accounting for 40.4% of total sales revenue [11][12] Group 5: Market Regulation and Competition - The NDRC is committed to regulating disorderly competition among enterprises and will implement measures to clean up market access barriers [13][15] - The NDRC plans to accelerate the implementation of significant reform measures to enhance economic stability and consumer confidence [15] Group 6: Consumer Services and Economic Growth - The NDRC will focus on enhancing consumer capacity and promoting service consumption in areas such as culture, tourism, and healthcare [16] - The NDRC aims to foster a positive cycle of consumption and investment by improving infrastructure and promoting domestic products [16]