Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.2%[3] - Retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month[3] Sector Analysis - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment grew by 10.4% and 8.5% respectively in the first five months of the year[3] - New energy vehicle production surged by 40.8%, while industrial robots increased by 32%[3] - Real estate sales and investment saw declines of -2.9% and -10.7% respectively in the first five months[3] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell from -2.7% to -3.3% year-on-year, indicating price pressures affecting investment[3] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed signs of stabilization, nearing the mid-level of 2022-2024[3] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to meet the annual growth target of around 5%, but structural changes will depend on the evolution of the current economic narratives[3] - Key issues to monitor include the potential overconsumption of durable goods, export growth rates, and the government's policy responses[3]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人| 贾东旭 摘要 核心观点：随后续政策性金融工具推出，信贷表现或趋于稳定持续走强。 5 月金融数据中最突出的变化是 M1 增速回暖，主要原因或有两点：其一，去年 "资金防空转" 政策下的低基数效应；其二，房地产销售边际回暖带 动资金注入企业端。 5月M1同比回升0.8个百分点，一方面源于去年"资金防空转"治理，使企业活期存款基数快速下降；另一方面，5月商品房成交 同比降幅收窄，部分资金转化为企业活期存款。 信贷持续性偏弱主要归因于企业部门，企业中长期贷款已连续两个月同比少增超1500亿元，这与PPI同比降幅扩大、企业未来预期不确定性仍存密切 相关。 企业投资计划与价格走势紧密相连，5月PPI同比降幅扩大至-3.3%，这或许预示着企业投资计划将进一步削减。同时，5月PMI中的企业生产 经营预期指数为也处于2024年10月以来的较低水平。 新增社会融资规模同比多增幅度收窄，主要是由于政府债净融资的基数抬升，财政融资"前置"推动社融快速改善的阶段可能已趋于结束。 社融存量 同比从2024年底的8.0%上升至8.7%，主因政府债净融资"前置" 。5月政府债净 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人| 贾东旭 摘要 事件：6月13日，央行公布2025年5月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下行0.1个百分点至7.1%，社融存量同比持平于至8.7%，M2同比下行0.1个百 分点至7.9% 。 增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 常规跟踪：M1同比回暖。 5月新增信贷6200亿，同比少增3300亿，拖累仍主要源于企业中长贷。 居民部门贷款新增540亿，同比少增217亿，其中短贷减少208亿，同比多 减451亿，中长贷新增746亿，同比多增232亿。企业部门方面，票据融资新增746亿，同比少增2826亿，短期贷款新增1100亿，同比增加2300 亿。非银贷款新增589亿，同比多增226亿。 5月新增社融22871亿，同比多增2248亿，主要源于政府债券。 人民币贷款新增5960亿，同比少增2237亿。政府债券新增14633亿，同比多增 2367亿。企业债券新增1496亿，同比多增1211亿。委托贷款减少167亿，同比多减158亿，信托贷款新增173亿，同比少增51亿，未贴现汇票减少 1162亿，同比少减169亿。 5月M2同比下行0.1个百分点至7. ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.1% year-on-year[1] - The total social financing stock remained flat at 8.7% year-on-year[1] - M2 growth declined by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9% year-on-year[1] Group 2: M1 Growth and Influencing Factors - M1 growth rebounded by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 1.8%[2] - The rebound in M1 is attributed to a low base effect from last year's "funds anti-circulation" policy and a marginal recovery in real estate sales[2] - The decline in corporate medium and long-term loans has persisted for two consecutive months, with a reduction exceeding 150 billion yuan, linked to a widening decline in PPI[2] Group 3: Social Financing and Government Bonds - The growth rate of social financing stock increased from 8.0% at the end of 2024 to 8.7% due to the "front-loaded" net financing of government bonds[3] - In May, the net financing of government bonds remained high but the year-on-year increase narrowed to 236.7 billion yuan[3] - The phase of rapid improvement in social financing driven by fiscal financing may be coming to an end[3] Group 4: Credit and Loan Trends - In May, new credit amounted to 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, primarily due to corporate medium and long-term loans[4] - New social financing in May was 2,287.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.8 billion yuan, mainly from government bonds[4] - The structure of deposits showed that household deposits increased by 470 billion yuan, while corporate deposits decreased by 417.6 billion yuan[5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition into a "new phase" of transformation and a "reform period" for policies, questioning whether external shocks are obstacles or opportunities [5] - It highlights the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative as a significant expectation gap in the first half of the year [8] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is identified as a major contradiction for the second half of the year, with a focus on inflation trends [9] Deep Dive Topics - The mid-year outlook emphasizes the need for new changes in policies, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs, tax cuts, and monetary policy, as domestic export data enters a "verification period" [11] - The article explores the emergence of new policy financial tools aimed at stabilizing growth, suggesting that these tools are becoming increasingly relevant [12][14] - The booming inbound tourism sector is analyzed, noting the expansion of visa-free access for additional countries, which is expected to have significant macroeconomic implications [15] High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes a shift in export strategies, with a transition from targeting emerging markets to focusing on the U.S. market [17] - It identifies three characteristics of stabilizing core CPI based on May inflation data [19] - The upcoming second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is highlighted, with stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data [22] Policy Updates - Recent communications between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump emphasize the importance of maintaining a cooperative relationship and mutual respect [27][28] - The article discusses the implications of ongoing trade negotiations with various countries, including Canada, the EU, and Mexico, and their potential outcomes [23]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition into a "new phase" of transformation and a "reform period" for policies, highlighting external shocks as either obstacles or opportunities [5] - It emphasizes the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, questioning which aspects are mere storytelling versus actual trends [8] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is identified as a major contradiction for the second half of the year, with a focus on inflation trends [9] Deep Dive Topics - The mid-year outlook indicates a significant shift in policy dynamics, with a focus on how "anti-involution" and the service industry can find solutions [5] - The macro monthly report anticipates changes in policies related to tariffs, tax cuts, and monetary policy, particularly in June [11] - The article on inbound tourism highlights the rapid increase in countries eligible for visa-free entry, reflecting a broader trend of opening up [15] Economic Data Insights - The actual GDP year-on-year growth rates are projected to be 5.2% for 2023 and 5.0% for 2024, with nominal GDP growth rates of 4.7% and 4.2% respectively [6] - Fixed asset investment is expected to show a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.0% in 2023, with a slight increase to 3.2% in 2024 [6] - The article notes a significant decline in real estate investment, projected at -10.6% for 2024 [6] Trade and Employment Insights - The article discusses the shift in export strategies, moving from emerging markets to a focus on the U.S. market [17] - It highlights the strong performance of U.S. non-farm employment, which exceeded expectations [22] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are noted, with significant trade deficits reported for various countries, including a $295.4 billion deficit with China [23] Policy and Market Trends - The article suggests that new policy tools for stabilizing growth are anticipated, with a focus on the potential emergence of innovative financial instruments [14] - The domestic shipping rates on the U.S.-West Coast are reported to be increasing, indicating a recovery in shipping prices [24] - The communication between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cooperative relationship amid ongoing trade discussions [27][28]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 在当前宏观政策积极发力稳增长的背景下，政策性金融工具备受关注。前两轮其成效显著，本轮新型工 具何时可能落地？资金投向又会有哪些新动向？本文分析，可供参考。 短期还有哪些稳增长工具值得期待？政策性金融工具或"呼之欲出"。 4月政治局会议对宏观政策做出新部署，货币政策率先在5月初落地，财政政策方面，政府债发行依旧保 持积极态势，短期内增量可能来源于政策性金融工具。 货币政策上，央行于 5月7日推出三大类货币政策 措施及十项具体举措。财政政策方面，除政府债净融资维持高位外，增量资金来源需关注政治局会议提 出的 "新型政策性金融工具"。 政策性金融工具可能在6月底落地，一方面源于发改委给出的指引，另一方面也和当前经济基本面稳健有 关。 国家发展改革委副主任表示，"力争6月底前下达2025年'两重'建设和中央预算内投资全部项目清 单，同时设立新型政策性金融工具。"另外，当前经济基本面表现稳健，5月乘联会乘用车零售同比 13.0%，出口相关指标也处于较高区间。 同时，5 月份以来，多地积极筹备项目并准备申报，召开新型政策性金融工具政策 ...

Group 1: Policy Developments - President Xi Jinping and President Trump discussed the importance of US-China relations, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and cooperation in economic matters [1][2] - The introduction of the "Regulations on Government Data Sharing" aims to enhance government digital governance and service efficiency, addressing the issue of "data silos" [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a unified horizontal ecological compensation mechanism focusing on the Yangtze and Yellow River basins to improve ecological protection [4][5] Group 2: Urban Development Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance announced support for 20 cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, for urban renewal projects, with a total expected subsidy exceeding 20 billion [7][8] - The initiative aims to improve urban infrastructure and promote sustainable urban development through various financing methods [8] Group 3: Human Resources and Manufacturing Integration - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security launched a pilot program to integrate human resources services with the manufacturing sector, focusing on cities with advanced manufacturing bases [9][10] - The program aims to establish a standard system for human resources services in manufacturing and enhance regulatory measures against illegal practices [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated launch of new policy financial tools aimed at stabilizing economic growth, highlighting the potential funding directions and the lessons learned from previous rounds of such tools [2][45]. Group 1: Short-term Growth Stabilization Tools - The Politburo meeting in April outlined new macroeconomic policies, with monetary policy measures implemented in early May and continued active government bond issuance [3][46]. - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced by the end of June, supported by the National Development and Reform Commission's guidance and a stable economic foundation [3][9]. - Local governments have begun preparing projects and holding policy briefings to align with the new financial tools, focusing on sectors like digital economy, artificial intelligence, and water conservancy projects [3][18]. Group 2: Characteristics and Usage of Policy Financial Tools - The first round of policy financial tools (2015-2017) involved "special construction bonds," which raised approximately 2 trillion yuan to support major projects, with a focus on agriculture, urban infrastructure, and manufacturing [4][48]. - The second round in 2022 included policy development financial tools that complemented major project capital needs, with an initial allocation of 300 billion yuan, later increased to 740 billion yuan [4][21]. - These tools exhibit a strong "leverage" effect, enabling the mobilization of additional credit or social capital, while also providing lower interest rates through fiscal subsidies to alleviate local government debt burdens [4][27]. Group 3: Innovations in New Policy Financial Tools - The new policy financial tools will emphasize support for technological innovation, particularly in the digital economy and artificial intelligence, marking a significant shift from previous rounds [5][31]. - Expanding consumer spending is also a potential focus area, aligning with the central bank's new initiatives to enhance service consumption and elderly care financing [6][33]. - Traditional investment areas, such as large-scale infrastructure projects, will remain a priority, particularly in sectors with high social benefits like water conservancy and transportation [6][39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of policy initiatives in enhancing economic growth and environmental protection, particularly through data sharing and ecological compensation mechanisms [2][3][5]. Group 2 - On June 5, President Xi Jinping and President Trump discussed the importance of maintaining a strong economic relationship between China and the U.S., emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation [2]. - The introduction of the "Regulations on Government Data Sharing" aims to improve the efficiency of government services and digital governance by promoting orderly data sharing and breaking down data silos [3][4]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a unified horizontal ecological compensation mechanism focusing on the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, which will allocate compensation funds based on water quality assessments [5][6]. - The "Opinions on Further Improving the Horizontal Ecological Protection Compensation Mechanism" outlines seven key tasks to attract more social capital into ecological civilization construction, including establishing compensation mechanisms and expanding compensation areas [7][8]. - The Ministry of Finance announced support for 20 cities to implement urban renewal projects, with a total expected subsidy exceeding 20 billion yuan, aimed at improving urban infrastructure and living conditions [9]. - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security initiated a pilot program to integrate human resources services with the manufacturing industry, focusing on establishing service standards and combating illegal practices [10][11].