哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析很多人总觉得中国经济增长的难题在国外，比如贸易壁 垒、关税摩擦。 但 2024 年 1-11 月贸易顺差突破 1 万亿美元的亮眼数据，狠狠打脸了这个说法。 真正制约经济增长的核心矛盾，其实藏在国内，消费增速创下 35 年第三低，投资出现首次负增长，激 活内需才是推动经济持续向前的关键。 外贸韧性十足 即便面临贸易保护主义升温，中国外贸依然展现出强劲韧性，2024 年 1-11 月，按美元计价的贸易顺差 同比增速超过 20%，创下历史新高。 外贸企业早已开启多元化布局，把目光投向了 "一带一路" 国家和新兴市场。广州某电子科技企业负责 人陈俊铭透露，他们针对东南亚客户偏好，创新推出了高清便携数字播放器，今年前 11 个月对共建 "一带一路" 国家的订单同比增长超四成央视网。 宁波的一家新能源企业，将出口越南的储能电池重量减少 15%、体积缩小 25%，能量密度大幅提升，1- 10 月对东盟出口增长 50% 到 60%央视网。 这些案例都说明，外部市场需求依然旺盛，中国外贸的增长空间不在欧美，而在新兴市场的开拓。 消费增速疲软 和外贸的亮眼表现形成鲜明对比的是消费市场的乏 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that improving income distribution is crucial for breaking the current constraints on consumer demand and driving economic growth [1][2] - The central economic work conference highlighted eight key tasks for economic work in the coming year, with a focus on domestic demand and the implementation of actions to boost consumption and increase urban and rural residents' income [1] Group 2 - Current consumer demand is identified as a key constraint on economic growth, with consumption levels dependent on income and income distribution [2] - The consumption rate in China is approximately 39%, which is significantly lower than the required increase of about 20 percentage points to transition from middle-income to high-income status [2] - To understand the gap between current income distribution and modernization goals, three key indicators are proposed: overall income disparity, urban-rural income gap, and income distribution structure [3][5] Group 3 - The Gini coefficient is used to measure income disparity, with a target to reduce it to 0.4 or lower by 2035, as most OECD countries have a Gini coefficient below this threshold [5] - The urban-rural income gap remains high at around 2.3 to 2.4, although it has been narrowing since 2008 due to poverty alleviation efforts [5] - There is a need to increase the proportion of labor compensation in primary distribution and the share of residents' income in national income, as both have not yet returned to the higher levels seen in the early 1990s [5] Group 4 - Improving income distribution requires multiple measures, primarily focusing on enhancing human capital through a lifelong education and training system [6] - It is essential to eliminate employment discrimination and address skill gaps, particularly for older workers, by prohibiting age discrimination and providing training support [6] - Strengthening the redistributive role of taxes is crucial, as personal income tax, corporate income tax, and capital gains tax are currently lower in China compared to many other countries, especially OECD nations [6]

由北京市通州区人民政府指导，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》主办的"《财经》年会2026：预 测与战略 · 年度对话暨2025全球财富管理论坛"于12月18日至20日在北京举行，主题为"变局中的中国定 力"。 从现在到2035年，我们面临双重跨越：一是近期即将跨越高收入门槛（人均GDP达到14000美元以 上），二是到2035年要基本实现社会主义现代化，人均GDP在2020年基础上翻一番、超过2万美元。人 均GDP的赶超过程，必须伴随消费率的同步显著提升，这将是"惊险的一跃"，也是关键的一跃。 12月18日， 第十三届全国人大常委，中国社会科学院学部委员、原副院长蔡昉在发言中表示"分好蛋 糕"有助于"做大蛋糕"，改善收入分配是打破当前消费需求制约、推动经济增长的关键。 第十三届全国人大常委，中国社会科学院学部委员、原副院长 蔡昉 蔡昉谈到，当前，消费需求已成为经济增长的关键制约，而消费水平取决于收入和收入分配状况。国际 经验表明，从中等收入向高收入阶段迈进时，消费率需显著提升约20个百分点。我国消费率目前约为 39%，与更高发展阶段的要求存在差距。因此，提高收入水平、改善收入分配，是突破制约、支撑未来 经济 ...

新华社巴黎12月18日电（记者崔可欣）法国国家统计和经济研究所17日发布的报告显示，预计法国2025 年经济增长0.9%，略低于2024年的1.1%。 ...

Core Insights - The confidence of CFOs regarding their companies and the overall U.S. economy has declined, with the optimism index dropping from 62.9 in Q3 to 60.2, lower than the high of 66 following the election of Donald Trump [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The median expectations for employment and economic growth for the next year are 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively [1] - Only 40% of respondents indicated that their companies are hiring for new positions, while nearly 20% stated they are not hiring at all [1] - Approximately 9% of CFOs expect layoffs within their companies [1] Group 2: Concerns and Predictions - The primary concern among CFOs remains the issue of tariffs [1] - The average expected inflation rate for the coming year is 4.2%, with half of the respondents predicting inflation rates of 3.5% or higher [1] - The average forecast for company revenue growth is nearly 8% [1]

随着担忧重心从通胀转向英国陷入困境的经济和就业市场，英国央行极有可能在周四送出一份"圣诞大 礼"。 交易员和经济学家预计，英国央行将把基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%，为近三年来的最低水平。决议 将于北京时间周四晚8点公布。 这将是英国央行货币政策委员（MPC）自8月以来首次放松政策。此前外界普遍预期行长贝利将再次投 下决定性的一票，但周三英国通胀数据的急剧下降，增加了MPC四名鹰派成员中有人倒戈的可能性。 英国价格压力消退的证据为降息扫清了障碍，而上个月的预算案也旨在短期内降低通胀。即便如此，英 国央行正逐渐接近其降息周期的尾声，如果该央行在周四如期降息，市场目前仅完全定价了未来再进行 一次降息。 投票分歧 在11月，贝利站在了鹰派阵营一边，该阵营包括副行长伦巴德利和首席经济学家皮尔。贝利当时表示， 在政府预算案即将出台之际，他需要看到更多通胀下降的证据，才能支持进一步放松政策。 自那次会议以来，数据指向了一个更加温和的局面。继11月降幅超出预期后，英国通胀已冷却至八个月 来的最低点，私营部门工资增长放缓，经济连续两个月出现萎缩，预计这足以说服贝利与英国央行的四 名鸽派成员保持一致，其中包括另外两位副行长 ...

【资讯导读】 ·英国11月CPI同比涨幅放缓至3.2% ·欧洲议会批准逐步停止进口俄天然气计划 ·德国12月商业景气指数环比继续下降 ·委内瑞拉：石油出口业务仍正常进行 【市场资讯】 ·英国11月CPI同比涨幅放缓至3.2%，为今年3月以来的最低水平；环比则下降0.2%，为2024年7月以来最 低水平。英国11月零售物价指数环比下降0.5%，为2023年7月以来最大降幅。市场押注英国央行本周四 将降息。 ·新西兰第三季度GDP环比增长1.1%，经济学家此前预期为增长0.9%。零售支出、制造业和建筑业指标 开始改善。由于经济中仍存在大量闲置产能，预计经济增长在未来一年内不会增加通胀压力。 ·知情人士透露，韩国国家养老基金已启动其最近与韩国央行签署的外汇互换协议。知情人士表示，韩 国国家养老基金本周也开始与央行进行货币对冲交易。 ·美联储官员博斯蒂克称，美联储的政策对结构性就业变革无济于事。 ·据多家美国媒体报道，由于不满英国在食品、工业品标准以及数字监管领域的政策，美国已经暂停执 行今年9月与英国达成的一份科技合作协议。 ·美国《政治报》17日以四名欧盟官员为消息源报道，美国政府近期一直向欧盟成员国施压，要求他 ...

Economic Growth - Kazakhstan's GDP grew by 6.4% year-on-year from January to November this year [1] - The real economy showed a steady growth of 8.3% in the first 11 months [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as transportation, construction, and mining experienced rapid growth [1] - The manufacturing sector also showed significant growth, with automotive manufacturing increasing by 15.2% and electrical equipment production rising by 16.7% [1] Challenges in Specific Industries - Some sectors, including trade and transportation services, are facing growth pressures [1] - The metallurgy industry lacks growth momentum, impacting the stability of related industrial chains [1] Policy Recommendations - The metallurgy sector, being a crucial foundational industry, requires targeted policy support to stabilize and maintain its growth [1] Inflation and Price Control - Recent data indicates a decline in inflation levels over the past two months, although food prices continue to exert pressure on overall price trends [1] - There is a need to strengthen price regulation on essential goods and increase the supply of affordable meat through major trade channels to stabilize market prices [1] Budget Efficiency - Departments are urged to improve the efficiency of budget fund utilization to ensure the completion of annual socio-economic development goals [2]

摩根士丹利：2026 年美国经济展望：走出政策不确定性 20251217 摘要 特朗普政府自 2025 年春季起实施的关税，实际税率约为 16%，已推动 商品价格上涨约 30 个基点，预计总共将有 70 个基点传导至价格，并在 2026 年第一季度达到峰值，对通胀构成上行压力。 预计 PCE 通胀将在 2026 年第一季度达到约 3%的峰值，并在第四季度 下降至 2.6%，主要受关税影响较大的商品价格上涨驱动，但由于通胀 预期稳定，预计影响是暂时性的，不会引发明显的二次效应。 为应对更高关税，企业采取降低劳动力成本和利润率的措施，导致就业 增长放缓，美联储可能因此在 9 月至 12 月期间累计降息 75 个基点。预 计劳动力市场疲软将持续到 2026 年，失业率将在第二季度达到 4.7% 的峰值。 《一个美丽的大法案》预计将带来约 40 个基点的经济增长效果，但根 据不同财政乘数假设，实际影响可能介于 0 到 1 个百分点之间，若刺激 效果接近 1 个百分点，可能导致需求拉动型经济增长和持续高企的通胀。 人工智能资本支出对 GDP 的净贡献约为总支出的三成，预计 2026 年和 2027 年，人工智能将为美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Province's industrial added value increased by 4.5% year-on-year from January to November, showing a 0.9 percentage point acceleration compared to the previous period [1] Group 1: Industrial Performance - The mining industry saw an added value growth of 9.5%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 4.7%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 2.2% [1] - High-end manufacturing performed well, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing added value growing by 17% and 16.9% respectively, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate by 12.5 and 12.4 percentage points [1] Group 2: Consumption and Investment - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 11,646.20 billion yuan, marking a 3% year-on-year increase [1] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 4% year-on-year, with the primary industry investment growing by 2.4%, while the secondary and tertiary industries saw declines of 2.5% and 5.5% respectively [1] Group 3: Key Industry Investments - Infrastructure investment grew by 2% year-on-year, accounting for 47.7% of total investment, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall investment growth, with transportation investment increasing by 2.4% [2] - Energy industry investment rose by 12.8%, continuing its rapid growth trend, contributing 1.9 percentage points to total investment growth, while tourism investment increased by 8.5%, adding 0.5 percentage points [2] Group 4: Economic Indicators - From January to October, the service industry in Yunnan achieved operating income of 3,154.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [2] - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.7% [2]