Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite facing severe external conditions, Bosnia's economic growth remains resilient, with a projected acceleration to 2.5% in 2024 and a return to a potential level of 3% by 2027 [1] - The report highlights that consumption levels were suppressed in the first quarter due to political uncertainty, but high-frequency indicators show a recovery in consumption starting from the second quarter [1] - Overall inflation is expected to rapidly decline to 1.7% in 2024 from 6.1% in 2023, before rising to 2.3% in May 2025, with core inflation stabilizing around 4% [1] Group 2 - The report identifies several downward risks to Bosnia's economic outlook, including trade uncertainties, a slowdown in the European economy, commodity price volatility, tightening global financial conditions, and escalating political tensions [2] - It emphasizes the need for Bosnia's fiscal policy to focus on medium-term consolidation, rebuilding buffer space, and improving the quality of public spending, supported by a strong structural reform agenda [2] - The report suggests that Bosnia should promptly implement priority actions for anti-money laundering organizations to avoid being placed on a gray list, which could hinder its ability to gain further growth benefits [2]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reveals widespread price increases across all Federal Reserve districts due to tariffs, indicating a complex impact on the U.S. economy [1][2] - The rising costs are particularly pronounced in industries with high import dependence, affecting daily living expenses for consumers [2] Group 2: Consumer and Employment Impact - Continuous price increases have led to a decline in real purchasing power for many households, particularly affecting low-income groups [3][4] - Consumer spending is stagnating or declining, which negatively impacts economic growth and leads to reduced hiring and potential layoffs in businesses [3][4] Group 3: Policy Dilemma - The U.S. government has imposed high tariffs, with the trade-weighted average tariff rate reaching 20.11%, significantly up from 2.44% at the beginning of the year [5][6] - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging decision between tightening monetary policy to combat inflation or loosening it to stimulate economic growth, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of economic growth and inflation. In terms of economic growth, the production side shows a mixed trend with high - level power plant consumption but declines in blast furnace and tire operating rates in some areas, while the demand side sees a marginal decline in building material prices. Regarding inflation, most industrial product prices are falling, with the CPI affected by the drop in pork prices and the PPI showing a complex situation of price changes in different industrial products [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices 3.1.1 Production: High - level Power Plant Consumption - Power plant consumption remains at a high level. On September 2, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 922,000 tons, a 2.6% decrease from August 26. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19. With the end of the summer peak approaching, power plant consumption in eight coastal provinces is expected to remain high [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has declined locally. On August 29, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.6%, a 3.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, affected by environmental protection restrictions [4][17]. - The tire operating rate has declined slightly. On August 28, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 63.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 21, and the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 72.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease. However, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise [4][19]. 3.1.2 Demand: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices - At the beginning of the month, the sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has rebounded month - on - month. From September 1 - 2, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 189,000 square meters, a 19.0% increase from August, a 54.4% increase from September last year, but a 21.8% decrease from September 2023. The rebound trend needs further confirmation. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities have increased year - on - year [4][24]. - The retail trend in the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][24][25]. - Steel prices have generally fallen. On September 2, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.5%, and 0.9% respectively compared to August 26. Steel inventories are slowly accumulating [4][31]. - Cement prices have returned to a downward trend. On September 2, the national cement price index decreased by 1.3% compared to August 26, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions falling more than the national average. The year - on - year decline in cement prices has widened [4][32]. - The decline in glass prices has widened. On September 2, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,142 yuan per ton, a 3.5% decrease from August 26. The demand side is significantly affected by the real estate market, and the implementation effect of policies remains to be seen [4][38]. - The container shipping freight index has stabilized locally. On August 29, the CCFI index decreased by 1.6% from August 22, while the SCFI index increased by 2.1%. The freight rate of the US route has stopped falling and rebounded, mainly due to shipping companies' capacity control [4][40]. 3.2 Inflation: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fall Below 20 Yuan - Pork prices have fallen below 20 yuan. On September 2, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.8 yuan per kilogram, a 1.0% decrease from August 26. In September, the theoretical supply of live pigs is expected to increase [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years. On September 2, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to August 26. Different agricultural products have different price trends [4][51]. 3.2.2 PPI: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling - Oil prices have risen slightly. On September 2, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $69.5 and $65.6 per barrel respectively, a 3.0% and 3.7% increase from August 26. The uncertainty of Russian oil supply supports oil prices [4][56]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 2, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively compared to August 26. However, the domestic commodity index has turned down month - on - month [4][59]. - Industrial product prices have turned down month - on - month. Since September, most industrial product prices have fallen, with coking coal and coke having relatively large declines. Most industrial product prices are also down year - on - year [4][63].

Group 1 - The macro leverage ratio in China has increased to 300.4% in Q2 2025, marking a significant rise from 298.5% in Q1 2025, indicating a growing debt burden associated with economic growth [1] - The rapid increase in debt levels in China is primarily driven by government departments and state-owned enterprises leveraging up [2][9] - The macro leverage ratio of China is projected to rise from 239.5% in 2019 to 286.5% by the end of 2024, showing the most significant increase among major economies [2][28] Group 2 - The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China has shown a pattern of increase since 2022, reaching 139.4% by Q3 2024, driven by significant investments in emerging industries and high-end manufacturing [5][32] - The debt levels of state-owned enterprises are notably higher than those of non-state enterprises, with an average asset-liability ratio of 85.6% for state-owned enterprises compared to 78.3% for non-state enterprises [7][9] - Government leverage in China has risen from 59.6% at the end of 2019 to 88.4% by the end of 2024, contrasting with the trends in Germany, Japan, and the US, where government leverage has fluctuated [9][10] Group 3 - The nominal GDP growth in China has been slower compared to the actual GDP growth, which has implications for the macro leverage ratio as it is inversely related to the growth of nominal GDP [32][34] - The price levels in China have been declining, negatively impacting the growth of nominal GDP, which is crucial for managing the macro leverage ratio [36][37] - The efficiency of debt usage in China is under scrutiny, with suggestions for improving capital allocation and enhancing productivity to manage the rising leverage ratio effectively [38][44]

Core Viewpoint - The new Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher advocates for a "growth mindset" in the Eurozone to address current economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation - Kocher highlights that sluggish economic growth in some European countries may lead businesses to pass inflation costs onto consumers, posing risks to price stability [1] - He suggests that raising benchmark interest rates could be a measure to control inflation, but it may also dampen economic growth momentum [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Kocher, who replaces hawkish Robert Holzmann, has not provided detailed comments on monetary policy and identifies himself as neither a hawk nor a dove [1] - He emphasizes the importance of making decisions based on facts and timing [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Challenges - The "growth mindset" Kocher refers to encompasses not only economic output but also addressing labor shortages, energy transition, and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - He plans to propose productivity-enhancing suggestions in future blog posts [1] Group 4: Policy Coordination - Kocher indicates that fine-tuning monetary policy and achieving intelligent coordination between monetary and fiscal policies may play a more crucial role than in the past [1] - He notes that the limited effectiveness of such coordination has been a weak point in Eurozone economic policy over recent decades [1]

Group 1 - The market is expected to be relatively quiet due to the Labor Day holiday in the US and Canada, with a focus on the manufacturing PMI data for August from major economies, particularly the UK and Eurozone, which indicate continued contraction [1] - The Eurozone's August CPI initial value is being monitored to see if it remains steady at 2% or increases, which could impact the European Central Bank's decisions on interest rate cuts by the end of the year [3] - Australia's GDP for Q2 is anticipated to show a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6%, which is crucial for maintaining confidence in the economy, especially after recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [6] Group 2 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for August is expected to rise to 49, and if it falls below 48, it would mark the lowest level since October of the previous year, affecting market confidence in economic prospects [3] - The US ADP employment figures for August are projected to slow down to 68,000 after a surprising increase in the previous month, which could influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [6] - The Eurozone's Q2 GDP revision is expected to maintain a growth rate of 1.4%, which may support the European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged [8]

Group 1 - India's GDP grew by 7.8% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding economists' expectations of 6.7% and surpassing Q1's growth of 7.4% [1] - The strong growth is partly attributed to exporters rushing shipments to the U.S. before the implementation of new tariffs [2] - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on all Indian goods starting August 27, raising concerns about the impact on India's economic growth and corporate profits [1][2] Group 2 - The new tariffs could reduce India's annual growth rate by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points, according to Citigroup economists [2] - The Indian government is taking measures to stimulate private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, including a planned reduction in consumption tax [3] - The Reserve Bank of India may maintain current interest rates due to the recent economic growth, with expectations of a nominal GDP growth rate increase of 0.6 percentage points from tax cuts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has depreciated significantly against the US Dollar, reaching a historical low due to concerns over tariffs and capital outflows, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia this year [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Depreciation - On August 29, the Indian Rupee fell by 0.8% to 88.3125 against the US Dollar, marking a historical low [1][2]. - The depreciation is attributed to fears regarding a 50% tariff imposed by the US, which is expected to negatively impact India's economic growth and corporate earnings [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Citigroup estimates that the tariffs could reduce India's annual economic growth rate by 0.6-0.8 percentage points [2]. - The Indian government anticipates that the tariffs will affect exports worth $48.2 billion [4]. - The tariffs consist of a 25% punitive tariff on goods due to India's import of Russian oil, combined with an existing 25% tariff on various products, leading to a total tariff rate of 50% on items such as clothing, jewelry, and chemicals [2][4]. Group 3: Trade Relations - The US-India trade negotiations have been delayed due to the cancellation of a US trade delegation's visit to India, which was scheduled for late August [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary has indicated that trade agreements with India and other partners are still pending, with hopes to finalize negotiations by the end of October [5]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Concerns - Analysts warn that the 50% tariffs could severely impact small businesses in India, particularly in textiles, seafood, and jewelry, with reports of order cancellations from the US [3][4]. - The potential for large-scale unemployment in key export regions of India is a significant concern, as the country may lose its position in global value chains [4].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's industrial production in July declined by 1.6% month-on-month, primarily due to a 6.7% drop in the automotive industry, influenced by U.S. tariff policies [1] Industry Summary - The seasonally adjusted industrial production index for July stood at 101.6, with 9 out of 15 industries experiencing a decline in production [1] - The automotive and production machinery sectors were the most significant contributors to the decrease in the industrial production index [1] - In contrast, sectors such as electrical and information communication machinery, as well as the chemical industry, showed production expansion [1] Output and Inventory Summary - The industrial shipment index fell by 2.5% to 98.9, while the inventory index increased by 0.8% to 100 [1] Economic Outlook - The Chief Economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, Toshihiro Nagahama, predicts a potential reduction in industrial production in the third quarter, which may negatively impact economic growth for the quarter [1]

Group 1 - Japan's automotive industry production declined by 6.7% in July, significantly impacting the industrial production index, which fell by 1.6% month-on-month [1] - The seasonally adjusted industrial production index for July stood at 101.6, with 9 out of 15 industries experiencing a month-on-month decline [1] - The automotive and production machinery sectors were the most affected, while sectors like electrical and information communication machinery, as well as the chemical industry, showed growth [1] Group 2 - The industrial shipment index decreased by 2.5% to 98.9, while the inventory index increased by 0.8% to 100 [2] - The chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute predicts a potential reduction in industrial production in the third quarter, which may negatively affect economic growth for the quarter [2]