美联储主席鲍威尔：在实际经济数据中还没有看到经济放缓的迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Investment Officer of Citigroup's Wealth Management division, Kate Moore, stated that the company is unable to immediately adapt to policy changes, indicating a pre-existing economic slowdown prior to the implementation of tariffs [1] Group 1 - Citigroup's Wealth Management division is facing challenges in adapting to new policy changes [1] - Economic slowdown was already evident before the introduction of tariffs [1]

油价下跌后，沙特公司缩减开支 金十数据5月5日讯，据英国金融时报报道，在地缘政治动荡引发油价大幅下跌后，沙特企业正寻求实现 业务多元化并保护自己的业务，为该国经济放缓做好准备。长期以来，沙特的经济一直依赖能源出口推 动的政府支出，这使其容易受到原油价格波动驱动的繁荣与萧条周期的影响。油价最近从1月份的每桶 80多美元跌至60美元左右——这是自2021年以来的最低水平，远低于沙特的盈亏平衡价格——迫使私营 企业再次为经济低迷做准备。一位沙特科技企业家表示，2016年油价暴跌后，政府削减了公共部门员工 的奖金和福利，他被迫关闭了自己的第一家企业，这给他上了沉重的一课。这一次，其一家公司试图减 少政府客户的数量，以避免受到影响，并向食品和饮料等新行业扩张。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. job market shows resilience with a non-farm payroll increase of 177,000 in April, surpassing the market expectation of 138,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, indicating no significant changes in the labor market [1] - The healthcare sector leads in job growth, while transportation and warehousing also see the largest increase since December of the previous year [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector experiences its most severe contraction since 2020, resulting in job losses and signaling signs of economic slowdown [3] - There is a rising trend in layoffs, with predictions of at least 500,000 jobs at risk due to the impact of tariff policies [3] - Job vacancies in March hit a nine-month low, reflecting a decrease in hiring intentions among businesses [3] Group 3 - Despite strong employment data, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in the coming months [3] - Economic uncertainty is causing businesses to slow down expansion plans, particularly in export and import-dependent industries [3] - The overall employment situation is robust, but the ongoing impact of tariff policies may pose greater challenges in the coming months [4]

智通财经APP获悉，4月非农就业报告将于今晚发布，经济学家预计，4月美国就业报告将显示新增就业 岗位13.5万个，低于3月的22.8万个。报告披露前夕，货币市场预期2025年美联储将进行近四次25个基点 的降息操作，比特朗普上月宣布大规模关税政策前的预期多出一次。美国债券投资者纷纷押注，唐纳德 ·特朗普总统推行的关税政策将拖累全球最大经济体的发展步伐，进而迫使美联储下调利率。 与此同时，周三的持仓数据显示，美国短期国债的多头头寸不断增加。投资者押注特朗普的大规模关税 政策对经济增长的冲击，将超过其带来的通胀影响。 然而，经济数据也在不断检验着这种经济大幅放缓的预期：周四，一份制造业调查结果好于预期，交易 员纷纷回补部分降息押注。市场的紧张氛围使得4月非农就业报告备受关注，这份报告将为市场初步揭 示关税政策的不确定性对劳动力市场的影响。 贝莱德集团美洲区首席投资与投资组合策略师加吉·乔杜里指出："劳动力市场的降温是美联储继续实施 宽松政策的必要条件。" 她认为，尽管4月疲软的就业数据"朝着这一方向迈出了一步"，但美联储需要看到更多数据反映出经济 疲软的趋势。"他们必须综合考量所有数据，我认为单凭一份疲软的数据报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Sumitomo Corporation indicated that the impact of U.S. tariffs may include economic slowdown, weakened demand, and a decline in commodity prices, including nickel [1] Group 1 - The potential economic slowdown is a significant concern for the industry as it may affect overall market dynamics [1] - Weakened demand could lead to reduced sales and profitability for companies reliant on commodity markets [1] - The decline in commodity prices, particularly nickel, could impact the financial performance of companies involved in mining and resource extraction [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price opened under pressure from moving averages, showing a slight decline of 0.28% to $3307.89 per ounce, with a high of $3327.91 and a low of $3305.61 [1] - The gold market is expected to experience volatility, with resistance levels identified at $3340-42 and $3330-32, while support is noted at $3299 and $3305 [3] Group 2 - Melanie Baker from Royal Asset Management anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with signs of economic slowdown expected in the second half of the year [2] - Joerg Kraemer from Deutsche Bank emphasizes the need for the European Central Bank to act swiftly to address potential supply shocks and rising inflation, arguing against the reliance on mid-term forecasts [2]

金十数据4月29日讯，伦敦皇家资产管理高级经济学家Melanie Baker在报告中表示，仍预期美联储2025 年将进行两次降息，但时间不会早于下半年，届时经济预计会出现更明确的放缓迹象。她指出，衰退风 险已经上升，全球和美国的经济增长前景已经恶化。不过，目前她仍处于"经济放缓"阵营，而非"经济 衰退"阵营，因为对等关税暂停，而且有迹象表明特朗普正对市场压力作出回应。 经济学家：美联储今年将降息两次 时点将在下半年 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - LME three-month copper prices fell significantly in early April, dropping 11% in the first two weeks, erasing all gains for the year, with a low of $8,613 per ton on April 9 [2] - Copper prices rebounded in the following weeks due to U.S. tariff exemptions on certain electronic imports and a significant decline in the dollar [3] Group 2: Exports - Chile, the largest copper exporter, shipped 93,909 tons of copper to the U.S. in the first two months of 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, as traders aimed to avoid potential import tariffs [3] - China's refined copper exports surged 156% year-on-year in Q1, reaching 117,491 tons [4] Group 3: Imports - China's refined copper imports in March 2025 totaled 354,275.469 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.11% and a year-on-year increase of 11.80%, with significant increases from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia [5] - U.S. refined copper imports rose 43% year-on-year in February to 58,326 tons, with shipments from Chile increasing by 53% [6] Group 4: Consumption - Global refined copper consumption is estimated to have increased by 9% year-on-year in February, driven by demand recovery in major consuming countries [7] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for March was reported at 51.2, up 0.4 points from February, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [8] Group 5: Production - Global refined copper production is expected to grow by 9% in the first two months of the year [10] - Codelco's copper production in Chile declined for the second consecutive month, with February output down 6% year-on-year to 98,100 tons, attributed to operational disruptions at key mines [10] - In contrast, BHP's Escondida mine saw a 16% year-on-year increase in production in February, reaching 113,400 tons [10]

近日,美国总统特朗普与美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的争端不断升级。先是鲍 威尔公开表示关税政策影响"或超预期",之后特朗普一周内4次要求美联储降息,不断"炮轰"鲍威尔、甚至 威胁要让他"走人"。其实,始终坚持美联储独立性的鲍威尔,正是特朗普在其第一任期提名的。在美联储 100多年的历史上,还没有哪位主席被总统"炒掉"。 主笔 王晓莹 特朗普一周内4次施压降息 特朗普与鲍威尔之争,要从4月中旬说起。4月16日,鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时说,美国政府已 宣布的关税上调幅度远超预期水平,其带来的经济影响同样可能超出预期,令美联储货币政策制定面临更 棘手局面。按照他的说法,加征关税将推高通胀和抑制经济增长；在现任政府正在实施的重大政策调整 影响下,美国经济很可能会放缓,失业率或将上升,而随着关税政策逐步生效,通胀也可能上升。鲍威尔还 说,美联储不会屈从政治压力,面对特朗普政府近期关税政策带来的复杂经济局面,美联储将重点考虑对抗 通胀。 鲍威尔作出此番表态的第二天,特朗普就在社交媒体上大肆抨击,称鲍威尔的行动总是"又迟又错","行动 太慢的鲍威尔早该像欧洲央行一样降息了,现在更应该立即降息 ...