董明珠对空调行业"铝代铜"的公开回应引发广泛关注，她强调格力坚持使用铜管的核心原因是铝材在长 期可靠性和技术保障上仍无法与铜媲美。 一、格力立场与技术争议 明确拒绝铝代铜 董明珠表示，铝在导热性（铜的导热系数约为铝的1.6倍）、耐腐蚀性（尤其酸性环境）及长期冷热循 环下的稳定性（铝膨胀系数高易导致焊口开裂）存在天然缺陷。尽管格力已研究铝代铜技术多年，但铝 材仍无法达到铜管同等质量保障，因此"不敢保证替代后的产品寿命"。 格力官方回应称，目前没有铝代铜计划，铜材在长期可靠性方面的优势是技术替代的前提。 铝材的技术瓶颈 成本与资源压力驱动 物理性能差距：铝的导热效率仅为铜的60%，需增大换热面积补偿；耐腐蚀性弱，潮湿环境易氧化；膨 胀系数高，长期冷热循环可能引发制冷剂泄漏。 验证不足：实验室数据与实际工况存在差异，铝管空调在极端环境（如高湿度、高盐雾）的长期可靠性 缺乏大规模市场验证。 二、行业联盟的推进动因 铜价高企：2025年铜价突破1万美元/吨，单台空调铜材成本占比达20%-30%，而铝价仅为铜的1/4，替 换后可降低单台成本约400元，对年销千万台的企业利润影响显著。 资源安全：中国铜资源进口依赖度超80 ...

Core Viewpoint - The home appliance industry is witnessing a rare trend of collaboration among major air conditioning companies to promote a self-regulatory convention regarding the use of aluminum in air conditioning systems, while Gree, a leading player, has not joined this initiative [2][4][14]. Industry Collaboration - Major brands such as Midea, Haier, and others have announced a self-regulatory convention to prohibit malicious attacks and promote the characteristics of aluminum heat exchanger air conditioners [2]. - Gree, traditionally a leader in the industry, has publicly stated it does not have plans to adopt aluminum in place of copper, citing concerns over aluminum's technical capabilities [2][11]. Market Reactions - Gree's stock price has risen despite the industry's shift towards aluminum, while the stocks of companies that joined the convention have shown volatility, indicating challenges in the widespread adoption of aluminum [5]. - The rising copper prices have led to increased costs for air conditioning manufacturers, prompting discussions about the potential benefits of switching to aluminum [6][10]. Cost Analysis - The cost of copper is significantly higher than aluminum, with copper prices reaching approximately 93,500 yuan per ton compared to aluminum at around 21,862.5 yuan per ton [7]. - The use of copper in air conditioning units accounts for about 26% to 33% of the total cost, with high-end models using up to 40% [9]. - If aluminum were to replace copper, Midea could save approximately 23.2 billion yuan, Gree 17.3 billion yuan, and Haier 12.4 billion yuan in costs [10]. Technical Considerations - Gree has expressed concerns about aluminum's durability and reliability, stating that aluminum components may have a shorter lifespan compared to copper, which could conflict with their commitment to a ten-year warranty [11][12]. - The industry consensus suggests that while aluminum can be used in non-pressurized components, it is not suitable for critical parts of the cooling system due to issues like corrosion and welding difficulties [11][12]. Consumer Perception - A significant portion of consumers (68%) prioritize whether an air conditioner is made of copper when making purchasing decisions, indicating that Gree's commitment to copper may enhance its brand perception [15]. - The push for aluminum in the industry is partly driven by government strategies to promote resource efficiency, but consumer trust in aluminum's performance remains a concern [14][16].

近期，铜市场迎来新一波上涨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜的走势可谓芝麻开花节节高，12月12日盘中一度触及11952美元/吨 的历史新高。此后，铜价高位震荡，截至12月17日19时LME铜价达到11727美元/吨。与此同时，沪铜主 连当日上涨0.4%，收报92820元/吨。 各大投行也扎堆看涨铜价，花旗预测铜价将在明年中期达到15000美元/吨。推动铜价上涨的主要因素包 括能源转型和人工智能领域的强劲需求，尤其是电气化、电网扩展和数据中心建设所需的大量铜。不 过，铜价快速上涨，也把压力传导到下游，已经有空调企业表示要通过涨价消化铜价上涨带来的成本攀 升。 铜价上涨催生 "铝代铜" 铜一直被视为全球经济风向标，今年迄今LME铜价上涨近35%，绝大多数涨幅发生在近一个月。 铜价强劲上涨，除了受到需求激增以及相关关税政策影响，也得益于今年以来持续走弱的美元指数 （DXY）—— 这使得持有其他货币的投资者购买铜等金属更为便宜；此外，美联储与欧洲央行主导的 全球利率下行轨迹，也是推动铜价走高的核心驱动力。 上海钢联铜事业部分析师肖传康表示， 铜价上涨得益于供应偏紧而需求增长。供给端，中国铜原料联 合谈判小组释放 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The price range is expected to be between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side inventory increases and potential capacity expansion are putting pressure on prices, while the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data [3][62]. 3. Section Summaries Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE price of the main contract dropped slightly from 92,280 yuan/ton on December 15th to 91,870 yuan/ton on December 16th, a decline of 0.44%. The basis weakened as the discounts of premium copper, flat - priced copper, and wet - process copper deepened, and the LME(0 - 3) discount changed from 20.69 US dollars/ton on December 10th to - 4.39 US dollars/ton on December 15th [1][59]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME positions increased by 2,912 lots to 351,056 lots on December 15th, indicating an expansion in position volume. However, the SMM Yangshan copper premium market had a cold offer on December 16th, with weak spot trading and a contraction in trading volume [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There is potential for increased supply. On December 15th, Nyrstar reached an agreement with Korea Zinc involving US mines and smelters, expected to be completed in 2026. Fortescue acquired Alta Copper Company, and Hubei Zeming's 50,000 - ton anode copper project is advancing. LME inventory increased from 42,226 tons on December 15th to 45,784 tons on December 16th, an increase of 8.43%, and COMEX inventory also rose, showing supply pressure [2][60]. - **Demand Side**: Demand is weak. China's industrial output and retail sales data were below expectations. Asia - Pacific Technology's "aluminum replacing copper" project in the home appliance field may substitute some copper demand. Although Xiaomi's Wuhan smart home appliance factory was put into operation and Gree Electric Appliance is developing robot parts, the SMM North China electrolytic copper market had low activity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [2][60]. - **Inventory Side**: Overall inventory increased. LME and COMEX inventories rose, while SHFE inventory remained stable at 165,875 tons, suggesting a loose supply - demand pattern [2][61]. Price Trend Judgment It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side inventory increase and potential capacity expansion are pressuring prices, the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data. The copper price is expected to range between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton [3][62].

最近，家电行业发生了一件引人关注的事。 在2025年底的一次行业技术会议上，海尔、美的、海信、TCL、奥克斯、小米这几家主要的空调企业， 共同推出了一个关于"铝代铜"的标准。简单说，就是这些厂家计划在空调的核心部件上，逐步用铝材料 来替代传统上使用的铜。 这个变化背后有直接的原因。空调的压缩机、散热器这些关键部件，长期以来主要用铜制造。因为铜的 导热性好，也耐腐蚀，这能保证空调的效率和耐用性。 不过，值得注意的是，行业里的另一家重要企业格力，并没有出现在这次联合制定标准的企业名单中。 格力方面之前曾表示过，对铝材料在长期使用中的耐久性和稳定性有所顾虑，因此态度比较谨慎，没有 轻易跟进。 这就带来了一个很实际的问题。如果未来市场上出现这样的情况：一边是多数品牌采用铝部件、价格更 有优势的空调；另一边是像格力这样坚持在核心部位多用铜、价格可能稍贵的空调。而两者都承诺十年 的质保，基础效果也差不多。作为消费者，到时候会怎么选？ 可能有人会更看重性价比，选择采用了新技术的产品；也有人会更信赖传统材料的可靠性，愿意为此多 付一些钱。这个选择，最终会由市场来决定。 说到底，无论材料是铝还是铜，对用户而言，最根本的永远是空 ...

Core Viewpoint - A collaboration among 19 air conditioning companies and research institutions has been initiated to implement "aluminum replacing copper" standards, sparking market discussions about material costs and future product offerings [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The rising cost of copper, which constitutes over half of the material cost in a household air conditioner, is a significant factor driving the shift towards aluminum [1] - The price difference between copper and aluminum is approximately three times, influencing manufacturers to consider alternative materials [1] Group 2: Company Responses - Some brands have indicated plans to launch aluminum-based household air conditioning products as early as 2026, while others have no current plans for "aluminum replacing copper" initiatives [1]

Core Viewpoint - A coalition of 19 air conditioning companies and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, has initiated the implementation of "aluminum replacing copper" standards, sparking market discussions [1] Industry Insights - The cost of copper constitutes over half of the material costs in a household air conditioner, with the price of copper rising significantly [1] - The price difference between copper and aluminum is approximately three times, with one ton of copper being much more expensive than aluminum [1] Company Developments - Some brands have indicated plans to launch aluminum-based household air conditioning products as early as 2026, while others have no current plans for "aluminum replacing copper" initiatives [1]

Group 1: Aluminum vs. Copper in Air Conditioning - The shift from copper to aluminum in air conditioning systems is driven by the copper-aluminum price gap, energy efficiency standards upgrades, and refrigerant replacements, with microchannel technology becoming increasingly prevalent[3] - The competitive landscape for microchannel heat exchangers is dominated by three players: Sanhua, Mahler/Delphi, and Danfoss[3] - Sanhua's revenue growth has slowed, indicating a need for innovation and adaptation in the market[14] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion Developments - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to accelerate due to continuous technological breakthroughs and policy support, with significant project milestones achieved in 2025[19] - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach approximately $479.5 billion by 2029, with a total of 196 fusion devices expected by 2035[40][42] - Key investment opportunities in nuclear fusion include core supporting entities and high-value segments within the supply chain, such as superconducting magnets and power systems[46] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing stable or potentially increasing core players due to cost reduction trends, with a focus on satellite manufacturing and launch services[3] - The domestic satellite constellation projects, such as G60 and GW, are set to significantly increase satellite launches, with G60 planning to deploy 1,296 satellites by the end of 2027 and 15,000 by 2030[60] - The market for satellite services and ground equipment is expected to dominate, accounting for over 90% of the commercial aerospace value chain[52]

董明珠强调，"所以我们并没有说不研究，我们一定研究，直到铝能够完全替代铜，我一定上铝。" 而就在几天前举办的2025年中国家电科技年会上，海尔、美的、小米等多家企业联合发声，将遵守《空调铝强化应用研究工作组自律公约》， 表态将共同维护行业整体形象与竞争力，为空调"铝代铜"技术突破与高质量发展注入动力。 "我们依然坚持不用'铝代铜'"，在小米、美的、海尔等多家空调巨头齐齐加入《空调铝强化应用研究工作组自律公约》之际，"铁娘子"董明珠斩 钉截铁地向外界表态称，"直到铝能够完全替代铜，我一定上铝。" 尽管"铝代铜"具备成本优势这一极具竞争力的杀手锏，但董明珠有着更为审慎的考量。她认为，铝还没有达到铜这样的同等的技术条件和保 障。在没有十足的把握之前，不会使用"铝代铜"。 不过，这并不意味着格力电器对"铝代铜"技术持忽视态度。恰恰相反，格力电器不仅是"空调铝强化应用研究工作组"的成员单位，还参与"铝代 铜"相关《房间空气调节器用热交换器》国家标准的修订。 同时，格力电器在铝业布局多年，多年来间接投资了多家铝企业。此外，格力电器的股东格力集团，去年还曾推动龙源金科铝管项目落地珠 海。 有观点认为，在格力电器业绩承压的背 ...

雷达财经出品 文|丁禹 编|孟帅 "我们依然坚持不用'铝代铜'"，在小米、美的、海尔等多家空调巨头齐齐加入《空调铝强化应用研究工作组自律公约》之际，"铁娘子"董明珠斩 钉截铁地向外界表态称，"直到铝能够完全替代铜，我一定上铝。" 尽管"铝代铜"具备成本优势这一极具竞争力的杀手锏，但董明珠有着更为审慎的考量。她认为，铝还没有达到铜这样的同等的技术条件和保 障。在没有十足的把握之前，不会使用"铝代铜"。 不过，这并不意味着格力电器对"铝代铜"技术持忽视态度。恰恰相反，格力电器不仅是"空调铝强化应用研究工作组"的成员单位，还参与"铝代 铜"相关《房间空气调节器用热交换器》国家标准的修订。 同时，格力电器在铝业布局多年，多年来间接投资了多家铝企业。此外，格力电器的股东格力集团，去年还曾推动龙源金科铝管项目落地珠 海。 有观点认为，在格力电器业绩承压的背景下，倘若友商采用"铝代铜"后进一步内卷价格，格力或面临更为严峻的挑战。在此背景下，其"铝代 铜"的技术研发进程或加速推进。 然而，格力的"缺席"也从侧面释放出一个重要信息，即"铝代铜"技术在当下仍然面临着诸多方面的挑战，其中技术层面的难题尤为突出。 友商抱团"铝代铜" ...