Core Insights - The domestic economy is stabilizing, with a narrowing decline in industrial profits and a transition to a "passive destocking" phase in the industrial inventory cycle, led by a recovery in high-end manufacturing [4][8] - The national childcare subsidy policy has been officially implemented, which is expected to alleviate the pressure of newborn population in the medium to long term and boost domestic consumption in the short term [4][8] - Industrial policies are showing positive effects, with significant price recoveries in the supply chain, easing short-term survival pressures for some companies [4][8] Industrial Economic Insights - In June, the revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.0% year-on-year, while profits decreased by 4.3%, a reduction of 4.8 percentage points compared to May [8][10] - The inventory cycle is transitioning from "active destocking" to "passive destocking," with three consecutive months of inventory decline. High-end equipment manufacturing is leading the recovery, with four out of eight sectors experiencing profit growth [10][11] - The automotive industry saw a profit increase of 96.8% due to promotional activities and investment returns from key enterprises [10][11] Consumer Insights - The national childcare subsidy policy targets families with children born after January 2022, with an estimated subsidy scale exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2025, which is expected to boost consumption in the maternal and infant sector [4][12] - In the first half of 2025, gold jewelry consumption decreased by nearly 30% due to high gold prices [4][12] High-end Manufacturing Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases for polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells, although recent price surges have moderated [4][16] - The motorcycle sector is seeing sustained growth in exports as domestic brands expand their global sales networks [4][15] - The home air conditioning market is benefiting from extreme heat and ongoing government subsidies, leading to increased domestic demand [4][15] Hard Technology Insights - AI remains the core growth driver in the hard technology sector, with AI-related investments accounting for 71% of venture capital funding in Q1 2025 [4][19] - The semiconductor equipment sales in Japan reached 404.59 billion yen in June, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [4][17] - The PCB sector is experiencing high demand due to AI, with inventory and turnover days increasing among manufacturers in mainland China and Taiwan [4][19]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 31 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 分析师：刘笑瑜 事件一： 证书编号： S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 7 月 31 日（星期四）2 点，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）2025 年第五次议息会 议。 点评一： 7 月 31 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布了 2025 年的第五份利率决议。其中显示，有投票 权的 12 位 FOMC 委员中 9 人赞成、2 人反对、1 人缺席未投票（美联储理事库格勒） 通过，美联储决定将联邦基金利率区间维持在 4.25%—4.50%不变，这是美联储自 去年 9 月开启降息周期以来再次暂停降息，符合市场预期。这是 1993 年以来首次 出现有 2 位美联储理事在利率决议中投反对票，2 位投反对票的委员分别是负责美 联储监管事务的副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒，此 2 人均为特朗普任命，反映其对美联储 的施压正在产生影响，因为以前鲍曼是著名的鹰派，而沃勒则是想竞争下一任美联 储主席。 本次声明与 6 月相比，比 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic CIS chip industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity due to the increasing market share of high-pixel products and the recognition of innovative single-chip high-pixel integration technology by major brand clients [2] - The domestic CIS chip companies are showing significant growth, with companies like Gekewei and Crystal Integration reporting substantial revenue increases, indicating a positive trend in the high-end market [2][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Gekewei's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 34.11 billion and 38.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.27% to 36.51%, with a record quarterly revenue of 20.75 billion yuan in Q2, up 38.3% year-on-year [2] - Crystal Integration anticipates a revenue of 507 million to 532 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.29% to 20.97%, with a net profit forecast of 260 million to 390 million yuan, showing a growth of 39.04% to 108.55% [2] - Sanqin Technology expects its revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 286 million and 290 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 52.12% to 54.25%, driven by new product mass production [3] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic base station equipment industry is likely to enter a new round of technological upgrade order cycles as operators begin to deploy 5GA services, indicating a positive outlook for related industries [3] - The Chinese government's recent stance on the rapid development of emerging industries, including new energy and artificial intelligence, suggests a shift towards more cautious and regionally tailored investment strategies, which may impact the overall market dynamics [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic sales growth of traditional household refrigeration equipment is expected to shift from high - speed to a relatively moderate range, and attention should be paid to factors such as policy impact, raw material costs, and market competition [4][49]. - The overseas expansion potential of domestic household refrigeration equipment enterprises is promising, and emerging markets have broad development prospects [49]. - In the field of dedicated refrigeration equipment, with the development of downstream industries such as data centers, there is a higher demand for the efficiency of refrigeration equipment, and enterprises need to provide comprehensive solutions [41][49]. - Suggest paying attention to industry leaders in the household refrigeration equipment field and domestic companies with rich reserves in data - center refrigeration solutions in the dedicated refrigeration equipment field [49]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Traditional Household Refrigeration Equipment - **Air Conditioner**: In 2025, the domestic sales of air conditioners maintained a strong trend in the first half of the year, with accelerated shipment growth in the second quarter due to a low base last year and promotional activities. The "trade - in" policy was optimized, with an increased subsidy limit. However, considering the "low - before - high" shipment pattern in 2024, the marginal pulling effect of the "trade - in" policy on short - term shipments may slow down. Attention should be paid to raw material cost changes, and online channels may intensify price competition in segmented markets [4][5]. - **Refrigerator and Freezer**: After relatively rapid growth in 2023 - 2024, the production growth rate of refrigerators and freezers slowed down in 2025. In May 2025, refrigerator production increased by 2.0% year - on - year, with domestic sales increasing by 13.7% and exports decreasing by 6.4%. Freezer production increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with domestic sales and exports increasing by 2.5% and 3.1% respectively. North American exports declined significantly, while African exports grew rapidly. Future production schedules are expected to be adjusted according to market demand and policy changes [23]. 3.2 Comprehensive Leaders and Dedicated Refrigeration Equipment - **Samsung Electronics**: In May 2025, Samsung Electronics acquired the German heating, ventilation, and air - conditioning solutions provider FläktGroup for 1.5 billion euros to strengthen its investment in the HVACR field and enter the data - center refrigeration market [29]. - **Daikin**: In 2023, Daikin acquired the American custom air - handling equipment manufacturer Alliance Air Products to meet the growing demand for data - center cooling solutions. In the fiscal year 2024, Daikin achieved both revenue and profit growth and expects stable profit growth in the fiscal year 2025 [34]. - **Trane Technologies**: The organic revenue of Trane Technologies has been growing for multiple quarters. In the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025, the company's overall organic revenue increased by 11% year - on - year, and the adjusted earnings per share increased by 26% year - on - year. Its commercial HVAC orders in the Americas reached a record high [35]. - **Data Center Refrigeration**: The development of AI and other industries is expected to drive the construction of data centers. By 2025, new and renovated large - scale and super - large - scale data centers are required to reduce their power usage effectiveness (PUE). Efficient refrigeration solutions have become an important R & D direction for relevant enterprises. Different cooling technologies have their own characteristics, and appropriate solutions should be selected according to specific scenarios [41][43]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - **Summary**: The traditional household refrigeration equipment industry is facing challenges such as policy changes, cost fluctuations, and market competition, while the dedicated refrigeration equipment industry has opportunities due to the development of downstream industries [49]. - **Investment Suggestions**: In the household refrigeration equipment field, pay attention to industry leaders such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Haier Smart Home, as well as upstream component companies. In the dedicated refrigeration equipment field, focus on domestic companies with rich reserves in data - center refrigeration solutions, such as Invicom and Shenling Environment [49].