分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 报告统计时间为2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变，建议关注红利低波、银行、 公用事业等方向。待市场出现阶段性调整或政策发力紧迫性提高时再积极布局，可关注AI+、 TMT、电子等科技方向，以及旅游、文娱、体育等新型消费的逢低布局机会。 权益市场， 上周，市场风格方面，小盘及成长风格表现强势；风格波动方面，市场风格波动处于 低位，风格较为稳定。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益离散度继续下降，成分股上涨比 例先升后降，行业轮动速度快速上升；交易集中度方面，前100个股成交额占比及前5行业成交额 占比继续维持在低位，显示行业热点较为分散。市场活跃度方面，上周，市场波动率从高位迅速 下降，换手率亦快速下行。 商品市场方面， 上周，趋势强度表现分化，能化、黑色板块延续其较强的趋势性，有色、农产 品、贵金属板块趋势性较弱；基差动量方面，有色、农产品板块维持高位；波动率方面，各板块 波动率从高位大幅下降；流动性方面，各板块流动性表现 ...

Group 1 - Hongta Securities announced a proposal for share buyback to optimize capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1] - As of May 11, 2023, 359 listed companies in A-share market have initiated buyback plans, with 265 companies specifically for stock repurchase, totaling a maximum buyback amount of 46.9 billion [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission supports central enterprises in increasing buyback efforts, leading to several securities firms, including Guotai Junan and Dongfang Securities, to propose buyback plans [4] Group 2 - The combined buyback amount from six major securities firms is estimated to reach 3.8 billion, with potential total buyback including Hongta Securities reaching up to 4 billion [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a combined usage of stock repurchase and loan increase tools with a total limit of 800 billion, enhancing the convenience and flexibility of these tools [4] - Analysts suggest that the buyback actions by securities firms signal strong confidence in their development, which can instill investor confidence in a volatile market [4] Group 3 - The current wave of buybacks is seen as a combination of policy guidance and market-driven behavior, which is expected to stabilize market confidence in the short term [5] - A series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and increased liquidity, are contributing to the buyback trend, reinforcing the dual drive of policy and capital [5] - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of buyback funding, especially if economic pressures increase, which could lead to cash flow challenges for some firms [5] Group 4 - The A-share market is expected to experience a rotation of investment themes, with a focus on technology, consumption, and healthcare sectors in the short term [6][7] - Analysts highlight three main investment lines: TMT sector, low-cycle stocks under growth policies, and stable sectors like public utilities and transportation [6] - The overall performance of A-share companies is stabilizing, with improvements noted in both large and small-cap stocks [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the active public funds will increasingly focus on core asset pricing rather than marginal information flow pricing, leading to a potential overall adjustment in strategy paradigms [1] - The new regulations on public fund assessments may significantly impact the deviation from benchmarks and the ratio of profitable clients, with historical data showing that a large portion of active funds has underperformed the CSI 300 index [1] - The recent performance of public funds has been generally below benchmarks, attributed to underweighting banks and frequent trading, indicating a trend towards conservative allocation [1] Group 2 - The public fund reforms are expected to increase domestic capital allocation towards Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, supported by positive policy attitudes [2] - The market sentiment may improve due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., which could enhance the relative performance of Hong Kong stocks [2] - The low valuations and policy support for Hong Kong's technology and consumer sectors remain attractive for investors [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a structural bull market, driven by technology sectors, despite external uncertainties such as U.S. tariffs and trade negotiations [3] - The current financial easing is linked to stabilizing the capital market, although it may not lead to a comprehensive improvement in the A-share market's fundamentals [3] - The first quarter reports indicate strong performance in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology sectors, with technology showing superior relative value [3] Group 4 - The A-share market is expected to present structural opportunities as the performance verification period ends, although uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations remain a concern [4] - Recommendations include focusing on dividend-paying stocks for defensive positioning, technology sectors for growth, and consumer sectors supported by policy initiatives [4] - The market is likely to maintain a range-bound pattern due to external uncertainties and the gradual impact of tariffs on domestic economic recovery [4] Group 5 - The initial phase of market volatility is expected to extend due to the complexities of U.S. tariffs, with a potential breakthrough later in the year driven by policy and capital [5] - The market's response to tariff impacts has created disturbances that require time to digest, but the overall bullish trend remains intact [6] - The influx of capital since last September is based on confidence in policy, long-term valuations, and industry trends, suggesting stability in the market [6] Group 6 - The market has recovered to pre-tariff levels, supported by liquidity from state-owned entities and resilient consumer demand [7] - The second quarter is expected to see accelerated policy implementation, which may further enhance market conditions [7] - Investment strategies should focus on small-cap growth stocks and stable dividend-paying sectors under the backdrop of continued monetary easing [7] Group 7 - The market's recovery is seen as temporary, with potential for increased volatility as economic weaknesses become evident [8] - The focus on financial stability and large-cap stocks is expected to gain traction, driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8] - The structural changes in the market may lead to a shift towards traditional consumer assets with high return on equity [8] Group 8 - The outlook for the bond market remains optimistic, with potential for new lows in interest rates, while the stock market is advised to maintain a cautious stance amid ongoing tariff negotiations [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in technology sectors and new consumption areas, with a focus on strategic positioning as market conditions evolve [9] - The emphasis is on monitoring economic impacts from tariffs and adjusting investment strategies accordingly [9] Group 9 - The re-evaluation of Chinese assets is expected to lead to a gradual increase in A-share market levels, supported by domestic policy responses to external challenges [10] - The focus on AI and innovative sectors, along with consumer trends, is highlighted as key areas for investment [10] - The capital market's role in stabilizing expectations is crucial, with anticipated policy measures to support the market amid trade uncertainties [10] Group 10 - Three main investment themes are identified: TMT sector performance, low-cycle stocks benefiting from growth policies, and stable utility sectors with strong earnings [12] - The overall market performance is improving, with emerging growth sectors showing promising results [12] - The focus on low-valuation financial sectors is recommended as they align with the shifting investment strategies of equity funds [12]

中信证券：未来主动型公募会更加聚焦核心资产定价 基准偏离和盈利客户比率可能是公募考核新规影响最大的两个规则。从过往主动型基金业绩基准分布来看，采 用沪深300和中证800的基金仅占总规模的62%，超过18%的产品是赛道型产品。2007年至今，2012—2014年和 2022—2024年出现过三年维度主动型公募大面积跑输沪深300指数10个百分点的情况。 过去3年公募普遍跑输基准，低配银行是部分原因，频繁交易和板块轮动也产生负向贡献。向基准靠拢和保守 化配置是大势所趋，但过程是动态的，绝非简单做多低配行业。未来主动型公募会更加聚焦核心资产定价而不 是边际信息流定价，策略范式可能出现整体性调整。未来资管行业当中相对收益和绝对收益产品的策略、选股 范围和定价模式会呈现明显分化。 华泰证券：公募改革或进一步增加资金配置港股需求 5月7日的国新办发布会对资本市场政策态度积极，重点支持科技、消费领域，对港股市场形成积极影响。5月8 日凌晨，美联储继续按兵不动，强调不确定性以及滞胀风险上升，不急于调整货币政策，基本符合市场预期。 周末，中美展开经贸高层会谈，贸易摩擦或有降级空间，有助于改善市场情绪。 鉴于美国对等关税的复杂 ...

2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 关税窗口期应如何博弈？ 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《政治局会议临近，应如何布局？— 策略周报》2025-04-20 2、《关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大？— 策略周报》2025-04-13 3、《关税迷雾叠加美股震荡，资产应如 何配置？—策略周报》2025-03-30 4、《科技主线重燃，二次上行可期 —策 略周报》2025-03-09 5、《从关税博弈到 AI+突围—策略周 报》2025-02-23 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】新低后宜适度止盈。央行本周降息 10BP，降息幅度相对有 限，后续预计为应对关税影响，未来仍有降息空间。整体来看，在增量政策出 台前，利率仍有下行创新低的可能，新低或是止盈机会（十年期国债收益率止 盈区间 1.50-1.55%）。债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the confirmation of a weak economic recovery, emphasizing the investment value of dividend sectors amidst the current market conditions [3][4]. Market Performance - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.68% to close at 3342 points, while the Wind All A Index increased by 2.32% during the week [4]. - All 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index saw gains, with military, communication, electric equipment, and banking sectors leading the increases, while real estate, electronics, retail, and petrochemicals lagged behind [4]. Macroeconomic Indicators - The April inflation data showed a 0.1% year-on-year decline in CPI, with PPI decreasing by 2.7%, indicating a continued downward trend in industrial product prices [9][11]. - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on global economic conditions, leading to a cautious outlook on future PPI expectations due to anticipated declines in industrial prices [11][12]. Policy Impact - The recent dual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates is seen as a response to the economic slowdown, aiming to support market confidence and stimulate demand [13][14]. - The banking sector has benefited from the policy changes, with dividend stocks becoming a safe haven for investors amid the weak recovery [14]. Investment Strategies - The article outlines four key investment themes: 1. Dividend sectors, particularly banking, are expected to maintain strong investment value due to ongoing weak recovery and potential monetary easing benefits [16]. 2. The TMT sector, driven by digital economy trends and policy support, is projected to remain robust in the medium term, with Hong Kong's TMT companies attracting more investment due to favorable valuations [16]. 3. Cyclical stocks, such as oil and non-ferrous metals, are anticipated to experience valuation recovery as economic conditions improve [16]. 4. Defensive sectors like public utilities and transportation are highlighted for their stable earnings and low valuations, providing a safety margin in volatile markets [17].

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of recent tariff negotiations on the A-share market, suggesting that the market sentiment has improved due to expectations of tariff easing and liquidity release from the central bank [3][10][12] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, which is anticipated to support market stability [9][10] - The report indicates a shift in focus towards sectors such as low-volatility dividend stocks, banking, and public utilities, while also suggesting potential opportunities in technology and new consumption sectors like tourism and entertainment during market corrections [3][12] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to see further declines in yields, with a target range for ten-year government bond yields set between 1.50% and 1.55%, indicating a favorable outlook for short-term interest rate bonds [3][12] - The report notes that the A-share market's average daily trading volume has increased to 1,353.426 billion yuan, reflecting heightened market activity following the easing of tariff concerns and monetary policy adjustments [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. CPI and China's M2 growth, which could influence market dynamics in the near term [21]

Market Overview - A-shares market showed a slight decline in the morning, with the TMT sector experiencing significant adjustments, dragging down overall market performance [1][4][5] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced low-level fluctuations in the morning, with certain stocks like 恒基地产 and 周大福 showing gains [2][17][18] TMT Sector Performance - The TMT sector, particularly the electronics segment, led the decline with a drop exceeding 2%, impacting several leading stocks in the sector [6][9] - 华虹公司 saw its A-share price plummet, with an intraday drop of up to 12%, while its Hong Kong stock fell over 13%. The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 3.913 billion yuan, an 18.66% year-on-year increase, but a net profit of 22.7634 million yuan, down 89.73% year-on-year [7] - 中芯国际's A-shares dropped over 4%, with its Hong Kong shares falling more than 10%. The company reported Q1 2025 sales of $2.247 billion, a 1.8% quarter-on-quarter increase, and a gross margin of 22.5%. However, it provided a revenue guidance for Q2 indicating a potential decline of 4% to 6% [8] Other Sector Movements - The beauty and personal care sector led the gains, with stocks like 水羊股份 rising over 10% [10] - Banking and public utility sectors also showed positive performance [11] Stock Volatility - Several stocks continued to show strong performance, with companies like 华纺股份 and 利君股份 hitting the limit-up for multiple consecutive trading days. Both companies issued risk warnings regarding their stock price volatility [12][14][15] Notable Stock Movements - In the Hong Kong market, 中国碳中和 surged with an intraday increase exceeding 60% following a voluntary announcement of share purchases by its non-executive director [3][21]

东兴证券表示，市场有望重回活跃态势，结构性行情特征明显。市场在经历节前缩量盘升行情后，在目 前节点推出重大政策，激发市场成交热情，有利于五月市场行情重回活跃状态。 中泰证券表示，从行业配置角度看，有三条主线值得关注：（1）TMT景气度有望贯穿全年。（2）稳 增长政策下，关注低位周期股"困境反转"。从估值-盈利角度看，石油石化、有色金属市净率存在一定 修复空间。3、中期经济压力持续，关注稳健类板块。公用事业、交通运输板块盈利能力稳定，且估值 偏低，具备较强的安全边际。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 5月9日，三大指数集体低开，中船系、减肥药、银行等板块和概念股涨幅居前。截至发稿，中证A500 指数跌0.26%，成分股中，中航成飞涨超5%，中鼎股份、百济神州-U、信立泰、安克创新等跟涨。 相关ETF中，截至发稿，A500指数ETF（159351）跌0.42%，成交额超6700万元。 资金流向上，Wind金融终端数据显示，A500指数ETF（159351）已连续三个交易日获资金净流入，累 计"吸金"超1.8亿元。 A500指数ETF（159351 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has officially addressed the controversies surrounding quantitative trading, indicating a phase of regulatory results. The intention was to enhance market efficiency, but the actual implementation has deviated, leading to significant market impacts [1] - Quantitative trading utilizes data and algorithms for rapid profit generation, including tracking large buy orders and executing trades at preset positions. The new regulations will monitor abnormal behaviors in quantitative trading, which may cause short-term market volatility due to potential sell-offs [1] - In the long term, reduced interference from quantitative trading is expected to lead to a more rational and stable market, ultimately protecting the rights of ordinary investors [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a strong upward trend, opening higher and maintaining momentum throughout the trading session. The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 3% during the recent holiday period, providing a positive foundation for the A-share market [3] - The offshore RMB closed near 7.27, having risen significantly from a low of 7.18, indicating a substantial appreciation of 900 points, which is favorable for the A-share market [3] Group 3 - Shenwan Hongyuan has identified consumer and technology sectors as key areas for strengthening economic expectations. The consumer sector is currently experiencing high profitability, while the technology sector is seen as having potential for recovery after recent adjustments [5] - The technology sector's crowdedness has decreased, and market focus is shifting back to long-term industry trends. High PE, TMT, and AI sectors are expected to gain traction in the upcoming months [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1% to reclaim the 3300-point mark, with nearly 5000 stocks in the green. The market experienced a strong performance with over 120 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating a robust profit-making environment [7] - Despite the overall market strength, certain sectors such as oil, banking, and tourism faced declines, while thematic stocks are anticipated to present significant opportunities in May [7]