Workflow
美联储降息预期
icon
Search documents
翁富豪:5.9美英协议与亚洲政策“双剑合璧”,今日黄金市场操作策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 08:02
昨日黄金冲高回落,亚盘初于 3415 承压,空单 3413.6 入场;欧盘反弹 3369 后二次承压,空单 3368.5 跟进。整体延续极弱下行,尾盘破 3300 加速探至 3288,凌晨反弹至 3300 上方,日线收长下影阳线,显示短期支撑有效,但反弹动能受前波段趋势压制。当前金价在 3300 - 3348 区间震荡,上方阻力 3348 - 3352,若突破需警惕二次冲高至 3365;下方支撑 3295 - 3303,若失守或回踩 3275 - 3255 区域。交易需紧盯关键位动态。 操作策略: 金融市场受美英协议影响,避险情绪降温,黄金、日元等避险资产遭抛售,标普 500 指数上扬。市场对美联储 6 月降息预期大降,美债收益率显著上涨。同 时亚洲大国放松黄金进口购汇限制,助力黄金进口。当前美英协议虽有积极信号,但贸易担忧犹存。投资者后续需紧盯贸易局势、市场情绪变化及美联储官 员讲话,以把握市场走向。 近期国际贸易与金融市场风云变幻。贸易端美英达成"突破性协议",英国大幅降低美商品关税至 1.8%并扩大准入,美仍对英商品维持 10%关税。协议虽带 来乐观情绪,但欧盟放话若与美谈判不取消关税,将对 950 亿 ...
金价亚盘震荡下跌,关注支撑位多单布局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 06:33
需要提醒的是,市场担忧仍未完全消散,仍需留意逢低买盘的支撑情况。本交易日需要密切关注国际贸 易局势相关消息和市场情绪的变化,另外,有多位美联储官员将发表讲话,投资者也需要予以关注。 市场认为这一贸易协议是积极的,因为这意味着特朗普为友好国家设想了一个10%的基线,除了这以外 的任何内容都可以谈判。美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔将于周六在瑞士与中国最高经济官员会 晤。自特朗普首次宣布征收关税以来,被广泛视为地缘政治不确定性对冲工具的黄金曾多次刷新历史高 位。今天的市场都将此视为利好消息。在我看来,10%的基准关税对进入美国的商品来说仍然很高,而 且我认为确实改变了全球贸易的运作方式。英美贸易协议宣布后,包括标普 500 指数在内的华尔街主要 股指受到市场对贸易协议乐观情绪的提振,避险资产遭遇抛售,日元、瑞郎和金价均不同程度下跌。 英美贸易协议的达成,缓解了市场对美国经济衰退的都那样,市场对美联储6月份降息预期也进一步降 温,利率期货显示美联储6月份降息概率已经下降至16.5%,而一个月词概率曾接近90%。美元指数也因 此大幅上涨,周四盘中一度创4月11日以来新高至100.76,收报100.63,为连续两个交 ...
沪铜沪铝沪镍:价格震荡,需求各异 78000 2800
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 04:48
【沪铜:价格震荡,多因素交织】昨日,铜价早盘先上扬后下跌,夜盘小幅走强,重回 78000 上方。宏 观上,全球不确定性反复,中俄发表联合声明,英美达成关税协议,市场风险偏好改善,美联储降息预 期偏好,美元指数重回 100 上方。矿端供给紧张未变,冶炼加工费走低。国内消费旺季近尾声,去库节 奏放缓。综合看,贸易关税虽有突破,但美与他国谈判或存阻力,需求预期有限,叠加美元下行放缓, 铜价或维持区间震荡。【沪铝:延续震荡态势】昨日氧化铝价格反弹,夜盘至 2800 上分。宏观方面, 全球不确定性反复,中俄联合声明,英美关税协议达成,钢铝关税取消,市场风险偏好改善,美联储降 息预期偏好,美元指数重回 100 上方。氧化铝部分地区现货价格微升,短期减产增多,做空情绪减弱, 但新产能投产推进,进口矿石价格下行,氧化铝上方空间有限。沪铝供给约束仍在,产量增长慢。国内 旺季消费近尾声,去库节奏放缓,关注美国铝关税变化。综合看,氧化铝短期下行动能减弱,基本面仍 偏空,沪铝预计延续震荡。【沪镍:多空交织,格局未变】供应方面,矿端紧张未改善,关注雨季结束 进展;镍铁成本高,下游钢厂盈利承压,市场僵持;中间品受硫磺价格上涨和印尼天气扰 ...
隔夜市场解读:特朗普再怼鲍威尔背后 藏着哪些中长线机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 02:48
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have decreased from 78 basis points at the beginning of the year to 66 basis points, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3] - The recent $100 billion trade agreement between the US and UK, including an order for $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft, has led to a 3% increase in Boeing's stock price, although the actual realization of these orders remains uncertain [3] - The competition between tech giants, particularly in the AI hardware space, is intensifying, with Apple's self-developed chip breakthroughs and ongoing rivalry with Meta in the smart glasses market being key areas to watch for long-term investment opportunities [3] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks are experiencing a divergence, with companies like Li Auto and NIO seeing significant gains, while New Oriental's stock fell by 2.35% due to policy risks in the education sector [4] - The gold market has seen a 2.3% decline in New York gold futures, but the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies may provide a buffer for gold investments, suggesting a need for careful evaluation of bond and high-dividend stock allocations [4] - The yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds has approached 50 basis points, indicating market expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, which necessitates a reassessment of investment strategies [4] Group 3 - Focus on innovative AI hardware companies with actual order support while being cautious of purely speculative plays [5] - Prioritize leading companies in the renewable energy sector that have successfully expanded into overseas markets and maintain stable profit margins [5] - Maintain a gold position of around 10% to hedge against policy uncertainty risks [5]
瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250508
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 08:48
贵金属产业日报 2025-05-08 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 点,当前利率期货显示今年仍有3次降息空间。在此背景下,美元指数和长端美债收益率或维持相对承压态 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 790.78 | -12.72 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8094 | -158 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 198555 | 10247 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 228462 | -1892 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 107220 | 2768 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 127151 | -2783 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 931982 | -8999 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 801.9 ...
美联储降息预期强化!外资回流A股初现端倪?
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-05-08 01:21
4月24日消息,美联储一名高级官员警告称,如果美国政府维持激进的关税水平,企业可能会开始更多 地裁员,如果失业率大幅上升,将强化美联储降息预期。截至4月25日,市场预期美联储6月降息25BP 概率提升至55%。 | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE 200-225 | | | | 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 | | | | 350-375 375-400 400-425 425-450 | | | 450-475 | | 2025/5/7 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 93.9% | 0.0% | | 2025/6/18 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% ...
张尧浠:美联储不急于降息、经济前景不确定性仍支撑金价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 01:04
张尧浠:美联储不急于降息、经济前景不确定性仍支撑金价 上交易日周三(5月7日):国际黄金遇阻回落收跌,收复周二大部分涨幅,但走势仍维持在中轨等支撑上方,趋势仍倾向上行,暗示仍有再度走强的预期, 基本面前景仍偏向利好,故此,下方关注中轨线附近支撑,以及扩展线支撑位置,仍可继续看涨反弹。 具体走势上,金价自亚市微幅高开于3437.82美元/盎司后,即刻录得日内高点3437.84美元,就此则遇阻回落,于9点半时段录得日内低点3360.09美元,之 后有所止跌,并日内整体走出维持在3370-3400美元区间内持续震荡盘整,到美盘尾走势仍偏弱,最终收于3364.28美元,日振幅77.75美元,相对于开盘价 收跌73.54美元,跌幅2.14%。 影响上,美元指数反弹收涨,维持近期的震荡上移的趋势发展,而对金价产生利空压力,其日内因等待美联储决议的公布而先行获利了结,并维持在一定 的区间内震荡,之后美盘尾,美联储如期按兵不动,声明措辞似乎在暗示滞胀以及关税的不确定性,令金价先走反弹,但由于仍遇阻3400美元附近阻力, 加上市场对贸易谈判持乐观态度,走势再度回落,并且在鲍威尔言论不急于降息,重申愿意等前景更明朗再行动,令金价 ...
【环球财经】对美联储降息预期降温 美元指数7日明显上涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 23:09
新华财经纽约5月7日电(记者刘亚南)由于市场对美联储降息的预期降温,7日美元兑除瑞士法郎以外 的一揽子货币走高,美元指数在隔夜市场和当日上午走强,当日午后涨幅显著扩大,尾盘时美元指数明 显上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.43%,在汇市尾市收于99.665。 美国联邦储备委员会7日结束为期两天的货币政策会议,宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。 美联储在当日表示,经济前景的不确定性已经进一步增加。美联储公开市场委员会关注就业和物价稳定 两个方面的风险,认为失业率上升和通胀走高的风险已经上升。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具(FedWatch Tool)在7日下午5:07分公布的数据显示,美联储到2025 年6月份议息会议时把联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%不变的概率从前一日的68.8%升至 80.1%。 麦格理全球外汇和利率策略师蒂埃里·阿尔伯特·维兹曼(ThierryAlbertWizman)表示,关税对通胀影响 的不确定性,以及通胀预期上升的长期影响,迫使美联储公开市场委员会劝阻交易员不要假设未来会大 幅降息。 截至纽约汇市尾市,1欧元兑换1. ...
国金期货沪铝日度报告-20250507
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 12:43
宏观方面,美国 4 月非农就业新增 17.7 万人(预期 13 万),ISM 服务业 PMI 升至 51.6(预期 50.3),显示经济韧性,市场对美联储 6 月降息预期降温。 撰写品种:沪铝 撰写时间 2025 年 05 月 06 日 星期二 回顾周期;日度 研究员:曹柏泉 咨询证号(Z0019820) 沪铝日度报告 沪铝主力合约价格今日高开低走下行走势,成交量相比较上个交易日放量。al2506 持仓量 183,758 手,成交量 138,706 手,跌幅 1.00%。 图1:沪铝期货主力合约al2506 走势图 图片来源:国金期货行情软件 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作,未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料,我公司保证已经审慎审核、 甄别和判断信息内容,但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性,报告中的 信息或所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议,本公司对报 告内容及最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致 的损失承担任何责任。 现货方面,截至 5 月 6 日,国内电解铝三地库存 63.6 万吨,较节 ...
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250507
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 12:43
1. Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals and Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views Precious Metals - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) showed a high - level oscillating and回调 trend. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate offset part of the upward transmission effect of international gold prices, and the post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand made SHFE gold weaker than overseas markets. With multiple factors in play, SHFE gold will maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. Copper - Copper prices are affected by macro, sentiment, and expectations. In the short term, the absolute price of copper is difficult to predict, but volatility will remain high [16]. Zinc - Given the supply and demand situation and weak macro data, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short term. Alumina is likely to continue its weak performance due to an oversupply situation and bearish market sentiment [46]. Nickel - The nickel market remains stable in terms of fundamentals, with no significant changes in logic. The nickel market lacks obvious upward drivers [66]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to continue their narrow - range oscillation in the short term as the impact of macro factors on the fundamentals is not yet evident [80]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are falling, and there is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and salt prices. Trade uncertainties may suppress long - term demand [91]. Silicon - With prices in the silicon industry chain falling, downstream polysilicon production cuts are more likely, and the supply side of industrial silicon is also showing signs of adjustment [99]. 4. Content Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Price Performance**: SHFE gold showed high - level oscillation and回调, affected by factors such as the RMB exchange rate and domestic consumption demand [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand, and multiple macro - factors contribute to the current situation of SHFE gold [4]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term volatility remains high. The latest prices of various copper contracts are provided, with daily price changes and percentage changes [16][17]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors (US non - farm employment data and Sino - US tariff issues), market sentiment (disputes between bulls and bears), and policy expectations (upcoming financial policies) all impact copper prices [16]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend. The latest prices of various zinc contracts and related price differences are presented [35][36]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is expected to be loose due to the opening of the import window, and demand is supported by domestic policies but with unclear strength. Weak macro data also affects zinc prices [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Performance**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate, and alumina is likely to be weak. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina contracts are provided [46][47]. - **Influencing Factors**: For aluminum, macro factors and demand seasonality are key. For alumina, the supply of bauxite, production capacity changes, and market sentiment are important [46]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel market lacks upward drivers. The latest prices of nickel and stainless - steel contracts and related data are given [66][67]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slow release of nickel ore supply, the continuous decline in nickel - iron prices, and the weak stainless - steel market all contribute to the current situation [66]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The latest prices of tin contracts are provided [80]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty about Myanmar's复产 and the semiconductor industry cycle affect tin prices [80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium salt prices are falling, and the market is cautious. The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and related price differences are presented [91]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market sentiment, cost - side changes, and trade uncertainties impact lithium carbonate prices [91]. Silicon - **Price Performance**: The prices of industrial silicon and related products in the silicon industry chain are falling. The latest prices of industrial silicon contracts and spot prices are provided [99][100]. - **Influencing Factors**: Expected production cuts in downstream polysilicon and supply - side adjustments in industrial silicon affect prices [99].