Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and daily moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. It also provides an analysis of the previous day's market conditions and future expectations for various futures including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, and commodity futures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4565 and 4575 points and support levels at 4511 and 4492 points [2][17]. - Ten - year treasury bond futures main contract T2603 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance levels at 108.10 and 108.20 yuan and support levels at 107.92 and 107.85 yuan [2][37]. - Thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 is likely to have a weak wide - range fluctuation, with support levels at 113.7 and 113.3 yuan and resistance levels at 114.2 and 114.4 yuan [2][39]. - Gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 945.5 and 939.6 yuan/gram and resistance levels at 963.3 and 968.3 yuan/gram [3][41]. - Silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to have a strong - side fluctuation, attacking resistance levels at 13800 and 14000 yuan/kg, with support levels at 13423 and 13381 yuan/kg, and may hit a record high since listing [3][49]. - Platinum futures main contract PT2606 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance levels at 444.1 and 448.4 yuan/gram and support levels at 439.8 and 436.4 yuan/gram [3][52]. - Palladium futures main contract PD2606 is likely to have a strong - side fluctuation, attacking resistance levels at 385.7 and 390.3 yuan/gram, with support levels at 375.5 and 374.6 yuan/gram [3][56]. - Copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 89000 and 88500 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 89700 and 90000 yuan/ton [4][57]. - Aluminum futures main contract AL2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 21830 and 21730 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 22000 and 22050 yuan/ton [4][64]. - Alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 2640 and 2620 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2677 and 2692 yuan/ton, and may hit a record low since listing [4][68]. - Polysilicon futures main contract PS2601 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with support levels at 55700 and 55200 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 57400 and 57700 yuan/ton [4][73]. - Lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 is likely to have a strong wide - range fluctuation, with resistance levels at 98900 and 101200 yuan/ton and support levels at 95000 and 93500 yuan/ton [4][78]. - Rebar futures main contract RB2605 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 3146 and 3135 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3176 and 3186 yuan/ton [4][83]. - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2605 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 3312 and 3298 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3340 and 3358 yuan/ton [4][85]. - Iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 795 and 790 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 805 and 808 yuan/ton [5][88]. - Coking coal futures new main contract JM2605 is likely to have a weak - side fluctuation, hitting support levels at 1144 and 1125 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1188 and 1201 yuan/ton [7][91]. - Glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 1016 and 1004 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1046 and 1051 yuan/ton [7][95]. - Soda ash futures main contract SA601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 1155 and 1141 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1185 and 1191 yuan/ton [7][101]. - Crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 445 and 441 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 453 and 456 yuan/barrel [7][105]. - PTA futures main contract TA601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 4720 and 4688 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4756 and 4778 yuan/ton [7][110]. - PVC futures main contract V2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 4526 and 4500 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4576 and 4593 yuan/ton [7][112]. - Soybean meal futures main contract M2605 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 2835 and 2823 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 2865 and 2892 yuan/ton [7][114]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - China and Russia held a strategic security consultation, reaching new consensus on major issues related to strategic security interests, including the issues of Japan and the Ukraine crisis [8]. - Some Japanese organizations expressed their willingness to visit China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry hopes these organizations play a positive role in Japan [8]. - Fujian issued 12 policies to support Taiwan - related businesses, promoting the construction of a cross - strait integration development demonstration zone [8]. - The head of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the "15th Five - Year Plan" will prioritize the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and developing emerging and future industries [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a management method for credit restoration, which will be implemented on December 25 [9]. - Five departments including the National Development and Reform Commission proposed measures to strengthen the construction of data - related disciplines and talent teams [9]. - US President Trump plans to announce the next Federal Reserve Chairman in early 2026, and it is rumored that the White House National Economic Council Director Hassett is the likely candidate [9]. - The US and Ukraine held high - level talks, and the Ukrainian delegation submitted a detailed report on the talks [9]. - Costco sued the US government, claiming that the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" are illegal and seeking a full refund [10]. - The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, the US economy will grow by 2% and 1.7% respectively, and the eurozone economy will grow by 1.3% and 1.2% respectively [10]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicted that the global economic growth will slow down to 2.6% in 2025, lower than 2.9% in 2024 [10]. - The preliminary value of the eurozone's CPI in November increased by 2.2% year - on - year, strengthening the market's expectation that the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates again this year [10]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On December 2, international precious metal futures closed with mixed results. COMEX gold futures fell 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to $59.15 per ounce [11]. - On December 2, the US crude oil main contract fell 1.23% to $58.59 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract fell 1.28% to $62.36 per barrel. The unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventory last week raised concerns about oversupply [11]. - On December 2, London base metals all declined. LME zinc futures fell 1.32% to $3055.50 per ton, LME nickel futures fell 1.26% to $14740.00 per ton, etc. [12]. - On December 2, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0712 at 16:30, up 13 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.0725 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.0794, down 35 basis points [12]. - On December 2, at the New York session's end, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.32, and most non - US currencies rose [12].

文 |姑苏九歌 编辑 |姑苏九歌 12月1日那天，手机上的期货APP差点炸了现货白银价格"噌"地一下冲破每盎司57美元，纽约商品交易所的白银期货更猛，直接摸到57.81美元，这可是实打 实的历史新高。 紧接着伦敦金属交易所的铜价也坐不住了，11210.5美元一吨，同样是历史头一遭。 盯着K线图看了半天，这俩金属最近半年跟开了挂似的，白银从8月底到现在涨了快30%，铜也涨了13%，普通投资者估计都看懵了，不就是白银和铜吗，咋 突然成了市场新宠？ 今天咱就聊聊，这波涨价到底啥逻辑，普通人能不能跟着喝口汤。 价格飙涨的直接推手 伦敦金属交易所的铜价12月1日摸到11210.5美元，美国Comex铜价也涨了1%。 有做期货的老铁跟我说，最近贸易商跟疯了似的把铜库存往美国运，就为了赚那边的溢价。 本来铜矿供应就紧张，这一来一回，市场上的铜更不够用了。 智利那边的铜矿最近不是罢工就是品位下降，挖出来的矿石铜含量比几年前降了快一半，产量自然上不去。 先说白银，这玩意儿最近跟坐火箭似的。 有个在上海做贵金属贸易的朋友跟我吐槽，11月底去上海黄金交易所调货，发现白银库存只剩715.875吨，创了七年新低。 你猜怎么着？10月份 ...

（文华综合） 当前锡价高位运行背景下，下游企业询价及挂单意愿清淡，观望情绪愈发浓厚，现货市场成交维持平淡 态势。下游订单以刚需为主，消费电子领域需求不振，终端企业当前以消化库存为核心，刚需采买节奏 平缓，终端订单恢复进程缓慢，整体需求端支撑力度偏弱。综合来看，锡市呈现"供应担忧主导价格上 涨，实际需求支撑不足"的分化格局，锡价受地缘政治扰动及供应端情绪推动显著走高，资金参与度较 高，沪锡持仓量突破10万手，短期内资金炒作氛围浓厚。 对于后市，金源期货评论表示，特朗普积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席，美元小幅收跌，且日债拍卖 企稳，修复市场情绪，锡价震荡运行。当前刚果金武装冲突尚未对锡矿生产构成实质性冲击，但运输成 本上升，加剧市场对脆弱供应端的担忧。短期宏观中性偏好，且供应端支撑强化，预计锡价仍易涨难 跌。 沪锡震荡上行，主力合约收涨2.15%，报312370元/吨。近期锡价走势强劲，核心驱动因素包括三方面： 一是刚果（金）地缘局势紧张，引发市场对锡供应中断的担忧情绪；二是市场对美联储降息的预期持续 升温；三是伦沪铜价格创下历史新高，对整个有色金属板块形成情绪提振与估值传导，多重利好共振推 动锡价走强。 当前国 ...

12月3日，国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中，碳酸锂期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约大幅下挫 3.71%，报92800.0元/吨。 库存方面，据中辉期货介绍，总库存连续15周下滑，上游库存进一步降低，下游主动降库存至合理区 间，贸易商环节出现明显累库。 展望后市，东海期货表示，当前碳酸锂供需双旺，社会库存持续去库。美联储12月降息预期增加带来宏 观情绪好转，碳酸锂资金关注度持续，短期区间震荡，逢低布局。 供应看，一德期货指出，澳矿CIF报价上涨至1215美元/吨。根据SMM数据，碳酸锂月度排产维持高 位，周度产量下降，其中辉石以及云母产量略有增加，盐湖产量减少。 消费端来看，西南期货分析称，储能板块表现突出，储能电池头部企业排产维持高位，动力电池需求同 步改善，在供需双旺格局下，碳酸锂社会库存逐步去化，目前库存已脱离绝对高位，关注消费持续性以 及矿端复产进度。 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have recently achieved a significant breakthrough, briefly rising to $58.819 per ounce, marking a 10% increase since last Friday and pushing the annual gain above 100% [3] - Despite a subsequent price pullback to around $57, the ongoing tight supply situation and low inventory levels at the Shanghai exchange continue to support silver's strong performance this year [3] - Silver has become the best-performing commodity tracked, with a strong buying interest returning after profit-taking led to a temporary price decline [3][4] Group 2 - The recent surge in silver prices has not been driven by new factors; the core logic remains the tight supply situation at the Shanghai exchange [4] - Market rumors regarding potential tariffs on silver by the U.S. government do not align with the timing of the recent price increase, indicating they are not the main driver of the current rally [4] - Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting have shifted, with a 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which typically boosts the appeal of precious metals [4]

华创证券指出，今年以来铜矿山供应扰动不断，供应增速下降，而铜冶炼产能2025年预计增加超过200 万吨，2026年预计也在100万吨以上，矿冶矛盾愈发突出，TC价格自今年4月持续维持在-40美元/吨以 下，长单TC仅为21美元/吨，2026年TC价格预期也将维持在低位，国内铜粗炼产能近1000万吨，CSPT 小组提出的降低10%产能负荷或将涉及产能规模近100万吨，铜冶炼减产预期加大或进一步支撑铜价走 高。此外，美联储降息预期快速升温，带动贵金属走强，白银价格创历史新高，全球白银连续第5年存 在供给缺口，国内上金所+上期所白银库存总计为1235吨，接近10年新低，低位库存下白银的供需缺口 对价格的敏感性逐渐增强。基本金属和贵金属有望受益于降息预期震荡上行。 有色60ETF（159881）跟踪的是中证有色指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有色金属采选 与冶炼加工领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，涵盖铜业、黄金、铝、稀土和锂等主要子行业，以反映 有色金属行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

每日市场动向： 近期美联储降息预期升温，加上美元走弱，黄金多头占据优势。 从美国经济基本面来看，最新公布的宏观数据显示经济增速正逐步放缓。与此同时，美联储多位官员近期释放偏宽松的政策信号，让市场对即将召开的 FOMC会议充满期待，普遍认为会上宣布降息25个基点的可能性极高。 根据CMEGroup的FedWatch工具数据，交易者预测此次降息的概率已接近90%。这一强烈的降息预期直接导致周三亚洲交易时段美元汇率维持低位，而黄金 作为典型的美元负相关资产，在美元走弱的背景下获得了显著支撑。需要说明的是，黄金本身不产生利息收益，当市场预期利率下降时，持有黄金的机会成 本降低，自然会吸引更多资金流入。 此外，全球市场仍存在的不确定性因素，也让黄金的避险属性得以凸显，进一步为金价提供了上涨动力。不过，尽管当前多头氛围浓厚，不少黄金交易者并 未急于开仓新头寸，而是选择等待后续关键经济数据公布后再做决策。 黄金（XAU/USD）在周三亚洲交易时段维持小幅日内涨幅，但由于缺乏持续的买盘跟进或明确的多头信心，上行势头在混合信号中有所放缓。市场普遍预 期美联储或于近期再次调整利率，这一情绪使美元维持在近期低位附近徘徊，从而对无息 ...

12月3日盘中，钯期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至387.35元。截止发稿，钯主力合约报 383.05元，涨幅2.31%。 宏观方面，近期市场依旧对美联储降息预期走强进行交易，铂钯作为贵金属一族，总体存在较强的宏观 属性，在总体风险偏好走强、以金银为代表的贵金属价格大涨的背景下，宏观强力推动铂钯呈现阶段性 走强，但由于宏观动力反覆，注意回调风险，尤其是日本央行近期加息预期引发市场流动性预期走弱， 会为风险资产定价带来压力;基本面方面，铂金2025年总体供需处于偏紧状态，铂金显性库存有去化表 现，基本面有支撑，但近期广期所铂价与外盘出现套利价差，宏观趋势若有反转，现货套利预计带来回 调风险；钯金总体需求增长有限，基本面给与驱动力量不足。 瑞达期货：降息预期所带动的偏多情绪或给予钯金一定支撑 中短期内供应端的边际变化主要受到南非电力供应紧张以及俄罗斯地缘政治局势的影响。需求端，在汽 油净化催化剂领域中"铂代钯"持续推进的过程中，钯金需求较为面临明显的下行压力，钯金市场正逐步 由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带动的偏多情绪或给予价格一定支 撑。 钯期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何 ...

沪银期现结构反转逐渐修复，供应短缺博弈降温，特朗普暗示美联储主席人选为哈塞特，叠加日债拍卖 需求强劲和加密市场回稳，风险偏好企稳，银价大幅震荡。沪银溢价扩大至420元/克，国内情绪强劲。 美联储降息预期回归和俄乌和谈乐观预期共同影响，供应短缺博弈仍将继续，银价仍有向上推动，但实 际短缺可能性有限，谨慎追高。 南华期货（603093）：贵金属价格重心继续上抬 从中长期维度看，央行购金以及投资需求增长前景(货币宽松前景、阶段性避险交易、以及对AI股防御 式配置需求)仍将助推贵金属价格重心继续上抬。短期看，低库存现实以及需求短期释放可能性，增加 价格向上弹性，周内白银已经续刷新高，伦敦银在突破55关口后，目标位已进一步上抬至65，第一阻力 60整数关口；伦敦金阻力4250，强阻力4400，支撑4000。 东吴期货：白银将维持上涨趋势 特朗普称明年初将宣布美联储主席人选，并强烈暗示哈塞特。美国特使已抵达莫斯科，为俄乌和平谈判 做准备。避险情绪缓和，黄金震荡微跌。预计中长期来看，贸易政策不确定性、降息周期开启等因素 下，黄金白银将维持上涨趋势。 大越期货：银价仍有向上推动 12月3日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上 ...

（文华综合） 沪锡震荡上行，主力合约涨超2%，逼近周一高点。近期锡价走势强劲，核心驱动因素包括三方面：一 是刚果（金）地缘局势紧张，引发市场对锡供应中断的担忧情绪；二是市场对美联储降息的预期持续升 温；三是伦沪铜价格创下历史新高，对整个有色金属板块形成情绪提振与估值传导，多重利好共振推动 锡价走强。 ...