Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in risk aversion and highlights short-term opportunities in gold, while also emphasizing key positions for the US dollar and non-US currencies [1] Group 1 - The sentiment of risk aversion is decreasing, which may impact gold prices [1] - Key support levels for the US dollar are clearly defined, indicating potential stability [1] - Non-US currencies are being closely monitored for specific price levels that could signal trading opportunities [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices maintained a slight fluctuation pattern on May 26, influenced by the US holiday, with strong support above $3,300 indicating potential for further upward movement [1] - Following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, risk aversion increased, pushing gold prices higher, but the subsequent extension of negotiation deadlines eased market concerns, leading to a slight decline in gold prices at the week's opening [1] - Strong physical gold demand, particularly from mainland China, is a significant long-term support for gold prices, with April exports from Hong Kong to the mainland reaching 58.61 tons, more than double March's 21.071 tons [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold prices are currently operating within the $3,150 to $3,450 range, indicating a major correction phase, while the upward trend since the $3,120 low is in its later stages [2] - The Bollinger Band's middle line remains around $3,290, providing key support for current prices, with short-term focus on a fluctuation range of $3,328 to $3,366 [2] - A breakthrough above $3,328 could target $3,392 and the upper Bollinger Band near $3,400, while a drop below $3,330 may lead to a retest of the $3,290 level [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Safe-Haven Sentiment Boosts Domestic Bond Market and Gold - Fixed Income & Macroeconomic Weekly Report (20250519 - 20250525)" - Report Date: May 27, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the passage of Trump's tax reform bill and the deadlock in US - EU trade negotiations have led to increased market concerns. With the potential escalation of US - EU trade conflicts and the entry of the US debt ceiling issue into the two - party negotiation stage, market risk appetite may decline. This is beneficial for the domestic bond market but may negatively impact the equity market, and gold may continue to benefit [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Stock Market Performance - In the past week (20250519 - 20250525), US stocks declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2.47%, 2.61%, and 2.47% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index dropping 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.10% and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.08% [3]. - Most A - share sectors declined, with the Wind All - A Index falling 0.63%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - Cap stocks changed by - 0.12%, - 0.18%, - 1.10%, - 1.29%, - 1.52%, and 0.04% respectively. In terms of sector styles, blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai market declined, while in the Shenzhen market, blue - chip stocks rose and growth stocks fell. The North Securities 50 Index dropped 3.68%. Among industries, 9 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, with the top gainers being the comprehensive, pharmaceutical, and automotive industries, all with weekly gains of at least 1.8% [4]. Bond Market Performance - In the past week, the price of interest - rate bonds rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.34% compared to May 16, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond increased by 4.15 BP to 1.7208%. The yields of bonds with maturities of less than 1 year, 10 years, and 30 years increased, while those of other maturities decreased [5]. - The capital price mainly declined. As of May 23, 2025, R007 was 1.6266% (a change of 0.15 BP compared to May 16), DR007 was 1.5860% (a change of - 5.14 BP), and the spread between them widened. The overnight capital costs R001 and DR001 changed by - 3.94 and - 6.61 BP respectively. The central bank had a net injection of 460 billion yuan in the past week. In May, the MLF was over - renewed by 375 billion yuan. The bond market leverage level decreased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreasing from 7.14 trillion yuan on May 16 to 6.72 trillion yuan on May 23 [6]. - US Treasury yields increased, and the yield curve shifted upward. As of May 23, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 8 BP to 4.51% compared to May 16, 2025, and the yields of all maturities increased [7]. Currency and Commodity Market Performance - The US dollar depreciated significantly, with the US Dollar Index dropping 1.84%. The US dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen by 1.76%, 1.89%, and 2.15% respectively. The depreciation against the Chinese yuan was relatively small, with the offshore and onshore exchange rates dropping 0.52% and 0.20% respectively [8]. - Gold prices rose sharply. The London spot gold price rose 5.02% to $3342.65 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 4.99% to $3351.00 per ounce. The domestic Shanghai gold price had a relatively smaller increase, with the spot price rising 4.02% to 776.40 yuan per gram and the futures price rising 3.76% to 777.98 yuan per gram [9]. Market - Influencing Events - On May 22, 2025, Trump's tax reform bill, "The One Big Beautiful Bill," passed the US House of Representatives. The bill plans to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion over the next decade and raise the US government debt ceiling by $4 trillion, which has raised concerns about the US fiscal sustainability [10]. - On May 23, 2025, Trump stated that the US - EU trade negotiations had made no progress and proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting from June 1. However, he later postponed the tariff to July 9. The US - EU trade negotiations are deadlocked, and future conflicts may escalate [11].

"我现在每天睁眼想的第一件事，就是看看金价涨了还是跌了。"小陈十分郁闷，感觉自己陷入了被金价 波动牵着鼻子走的怪圈里。 此外，地缘政治风险变化、美元指数走势以及全球央行购金行为等也是影响金价的重要原因。 "看黄金涨势那么好，我从今年4月初开始买黄金，不论是实物黄金还是黄金ETF，都买了不少。谁能想 到最近又跌了这么多，真是既舍不得卖，又不敢继续加仓，被套住僵在这里了。"像小陈这样心情随着 金价起起落落的黄金投资者并不在少数。 在4月22日突破3500美元/盎司的历史高位后，国际金价一直在3200—3450美元/盎司区间震荡。直到5月 份，随着中美关税谈判取得进展，市场避险情绪骤降，现货黄金最低跌至3120美元/盎司，国内金饰价 格亦随之跌破千元大关。然而，自5月19日起，黄金价格再度连续走高，并于5月21日重新站上3300美 元/盎司。 黄金价格不断波动，背后原因是什么？目前是应该卖出还是持有黄金呢？时间点该如何选择？对个人而 言，哪种投资方式更合适？ 围绕当前黄金投资者最为关注的几个问题，《金融时报》记者特别邀请中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研 究员刘英和格上基金研究员焦冰，对以上问题进行观点分享。 《金融时报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on the EU has increased global economic uncertainty, which supports a bullish trend in gold prices. Central banks continue to purchase gold, indicating a sustained long-term bullish outlook [3]. - For copper and aluminum, while there is a short-term weakness in downstream operations, the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, justifying a "Recommended" rating for both industries [11]. - Tin prices are expected to stabilize at a high level, with corporate profits projected to gradually increase, leading to a "Recommended" rating for the tin industry [11]. - Antimony prices are currently weak due to short-term demand decline, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices, hence a "Recommended" rating is maintained [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a monthly performance increase of 3.1%, a quarterly increase of 4.3%, and a yearly increase of 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1]. Macroeconomic Indicators - China's real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3%, while the industrial added value in April grew by 6.1%, exceeding expectations [4][28]. - The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 52.3, significantly above the expected 49.9 [3][28]. Gold Market Data - The London gold price increased to $3342.65 per ounce, a rise of 3.48% from the previous week [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 29.66 million ounces, an increase of 120,000 ounces [32]. Copper Market Data - LME copper closed at $9565 per ton, up by $52 from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 77,790 yuan per ton, down by 880 yuan [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 139,900 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market Data - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices rose to 20,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 56.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin and Antimony Market Data - Domestic refined tin prices were reported at 265,070 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 370 yuan [43]. - Antimony ingot prices were reported at 220,500 yuan per ton, down by 2,000 yuan [43].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, questioning whether the short-term pullback represents an opportunity or a risk for investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have shown volatility, with a recent downward trend prompting discussions about potential investment strategies [1] - The impact of tariffs and geopolitical factors is highlighted as a significant influence on market sentiment and gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern regarding whether the current market conditions will lead to renewed risk aversion among investors, potentially driving gold prices higher [1] - The article suggests that the current environment may create both opportunities and risks for investors looking to capitalize on gold's movements [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has threatened to escalate the trade war by suggesting a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, which has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - Gold prices surged over $150 last week due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's, but the extension of the tariff deadline to July 9 may lead to a potential price correction [3][1] - The WTI crude oil futures experienced fluctuations, initially dropping but then rebounding to above $61 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][6] Group 2 - The gold market is currently showing signs of potential adjustment after reaching a high of $3365, with technical indicators suggesting a possible downward movement [3][1] - Oil prices are in a volatile state, with support observed at the $60 mark, and the market is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern unless significant news or data emerges [6][4] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes risk management, highlighting the importance of avoiding significant losses while navigating market fluctuations [6]

2025 年 5 月 26 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 黄金、白银、铜、玻璃、纯碱、原 油、PTA 期货将偏强震荡 氧化铝、螺纹钢期货将偏弱震荡 股指期货将偏弱震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3881 和 3905 点，支撑位 3822 和 3798 点；IH2506 阻力位 2715 和 2726 点，支撑位 2681 和 2664 点；IC2506 阻力位 5616 和 5666 点，支撑位 5530 和 5492 点；IM2506 阻力位 5942 和 6019 点，支撑位 5801 和 5742 点。 十年期国债期货主力合约 T2509 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 108.90 和 109.00 元，支撑位 108.69 和 108.62 元。 三十年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 119.7 和 120.0 元，支撑位 119.4 和 119.0 元。 黄金期货主力合约 AU2508 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 790.8 和 797.4 元/克，支撑位 780.2 和 775.2 元/克。 白银期货主力合约 AG2508 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 8 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The tariff policies of Trump have introduced uncertainties, leading to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which is favorable for precious metals in the short - term, while the medium - term trend requires further observation of the trade war's progress [1]. - For various commodities, their short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity utilization, and market sentiment, with most showing a tendency of short - term weakening or oscillating [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Trump's tariff threats have increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and Powell's speech has added more possibilities to future monetary policies. Precious metals are bullish in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the trade war [1]. - **Silver**: The Fed's monetary policy remains in a wait - and - see mode. With the decline of US stocks and the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish for silver. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term [8]. Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda plant is operating at a high level, with stable expected operation this week and a decrease in enterprise inventory. The downstream alumina has low profits, and the replenishment demand is expected to slow down. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: The coal price is expected to be weak, and the domestic methanol operation is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with a narrow adjustment in supply and general downstream demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Metals - **Rebar**: The production of five major steel products has increased slightly, the apparent consumption has decreased, and the supply - demand pressure has increased slightly. The steel market may have weak supply and demand in the short - term, and the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: The coking profit is continuously recovering, and the supply is increasing. The iron - water production is slightly decreasing, and the coke consumption remains high. The coke price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to the approaching off - season of steel demand and the expected reduction of steel mill profits [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore supply increase is not obvious, and the supply - demand is balanced. With the recent macro - level positive news, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's export tariff increase and other news have affected the market sentiment. The domestic spot basis is stable, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Soybeans**: The price drivers of US soybeans are uncertain. The domestic soybean planting is nearly half - completed, and the old - bean inventory is tight. It is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on soybean No. 1 [9]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price first fell and then rose over the weekend. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is adjusting weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [9]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tariffs, the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, and other factors have brought uncertainties to the market. The short - term pressure is not large, and the mid - term trend depends on the implementation of OPEC+ policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber raw materials are resistant to price drops in the short - term due to delayed tapping in Thailand and heavy rain in Southeast Asia. However, the overall expectation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Others - **PTA**: The restart of PX and PTA maintenance devices will lead to a slight increase in domestic supply. The polyester inventory is still high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm needs further observation. It is not recommended to chase the high price in the long - term [13]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market issuance is basically completed, and the supply shock has eased. The economic downward pressure is still large, and the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium - term [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The prices of gold and silver were boosted by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which weakened the US dollar index and increased global market risk aversion. Meanwhile, the tax reform bill promoted by US President Trump in Congress raised concerns about the expansion of the fiscal deficit. Trump's tariff threat on Friday further boosted precious metal prices [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is ongoing. Trump initially claimed to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1, but later postponed the deadline to July 9. Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement expected to reach a temporary agreement by early July [3][6]. - Although the US - China trade relationship has recently eased, there is still great uncertainty in the trade negotiations between the US and other economies such as the EU and Japan. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks occur frequently. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations, so the short - term gold price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 780.10 | 28.30 | 3.76 | 220512 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 775.72 | 21.63 | 2.87 | 48148 | 210456 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3357.70 | 152.40 | 4.75 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 8263 | 162 | 2.00 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 8244 | 131 | 1.61 | 372524 | 3454112 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 33.64 | 1.21 | 3.73 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week due to Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the tax reform bill, and Trump's tariff threat [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is in progress. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for the EU to July 9. Japan may accept a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by early July [3][6]. - The tax reform bill led by Trump will increase the federal debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next decade, causing concerns about fiscal sustainability and global bond market fluctuations. The bill will face challenges in the Senate vote [6]. - Fed officials emphasized patience in policy adjustment. The market expects a 90% probability of an ECB interest rate cut next month [6][7]. - Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation and the "Gideon's Sword" operation by the Israeli Defense Forces [7]. - This week, focus on US economic data such as GDP and PCE, and events like the US trade negotiations, the Fed's May meeting minutes, and speeches by Fed officials [8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - In May, the US manufacturing PMI reached a three - month high of 52.3, and the service PMI was 52.3, with new orders growing at the fastest rate in a year. However, manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month, and the employment index declined [9]. - As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 2000 to 227,000, a four - week low, indicating a stable employment market [9]. - In May, the eurozone manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.2, but the service PMI dropped to 48.9, a 16 - month low, dragging down the composite PMI to 49.5. The money market increased bets on further ECB interest rate cuts this year [9]. - In April, US new home sales reached the highest level since February 2022, with an annualized growth of nearly 11% to 743,000 units [9]. - In April, Japan's core CPI rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the price of rice increased by 98%, which may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October [10]. - In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 metric tons, a 73% increase, a new high in 11 months [10]. - As of May 20, the total gold holdings of precious metal ETFs were 922.46 tons, an increase of 3.73 tons from last week. The silver holdings of ishare were 14217.50 tons, an increase of 302.60 tons from last week [10]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The content provides multiple charts including SHFE and COMEX precious metal prices, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, and the relationship between precious metal prices and other economic indicators such as the US dollar, inflation, and interest rates [14][15][16]