Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of economic data and trade negotiations on market dynamics, particularly the rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to economic uncertainties and high tariff threats [1][3][4] - The ADP employment data for June showed a significant decline of 33,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023, which was far below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The Challenger job cuts report indicated that layoffs rose to 47,999 in June, the highest level since December 2024, reinforcing concerns about economic slowdown and aggressive cost-cutting measures by employers [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations are creating a highly fragmented global trade landscape, with various countries seeking exemptions or reductions in tariffs while facing significant uncertainties [2][3] - The U.S. is employing a "divide and conquer" strategy in negotiations, with the EU seeking exemptions for key industries and Canada having to withdraw a planned digital services tax to restart talks [2] - The potential for a differentiated tariff system and trade conflicts may disrupt global supply chains and increase production costs, further enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3][4] Group 3 - The instability in trade policies is providing solid support for precious metal prices, with gold and silver expected to find strong support around $3,300 and $36 respectively [4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could trigger significant movements in gold and silver prices depending on the employment trends [4] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach before the non-farm data release, with potential for increased positions if key resistance levels are broken [4]

中信证券报告认为，原油是受中东局势影响最为直接的大宗商品。从供给来看，中东紧张局势一旦直接 牵涉到产油国，相关国家的石油供给往往要在冲突烈度显著下降或战事彻底平息后才能恢复。从价格来 看，紧张局势推动下的油价上行往往发生在开战初期，后续油价中枢仍由供需基本面决定。拉长时间来 看，随着中东产油国供给份额下降以及消费国石油储备、应急机制趋于完善，中东紧张局势对全球油价 的影响在边际弱化。 黄金和美元作为避险资产同样备受关注。国际金价方面，伦敦现货金上周下跌1.91%，COMEX黄金同 样下跌1.98%。美元指数上周则小幅上涨0.64%。对于未来国际金价的走势，机构多数看好。 证券时报记者陈霞昌 当地时间6月22日，美国总统特朗普宣称美军"成功打击"并"彻底清除"伊朗三处核设施，中东紧张局势 再次升级。作为应对手段之一，伊朗议会认为应关闭承接全球约三分之一海运原油贸易的霍尔木兹海 峡，不过，此举尚待伊朗最高国家安全委员会批准。分析认为，全球大宗商品市场和金融市场都将受到 较大冲击。 数据显示，自一周前以色列对伊朗发动袭击以来，国际原油价格已经上涨了约10%，6月的涨幅超过 20%。 自1988年两伊战争结束后，霍尔 ...

美国ADP就业数据意外爆冷，成为搅动黄金市场的关键因素。6月私营部门就业人数大幅减少3.3万，与市场预期的增加9.5万相差甚 远，且前值还被向下修正，创下2023年3月以来的最大单月跌幅。ADP数据公布后，市场反应迅速，美元指数短线急跌，而黄金作为 传统避险资产，凭借其独特的避险属性，吸引资金流入，价格迅速走高。市场目光聚焦于周四（因独立日假期提前发布）的非农就业 报告，投资者对于劳动力市场的韧性以及美联储后续政策路径的预期分歧进一步扩大。 黄金昨日走势多空双方激烈博弈。早盘黄金反弹至3344美元受阻，回落至3328美元企稳后再次试探该阻力位未果。欧盘时段，黄金在 3327美元企稳后反弹至3347美元遇阻，美盘开盘后，又反弹至3351美元受阻，随后回落至3333美元企稳，凌晨开启上涨收盘前涨至 3360美元，刷新一周新高。从技术面看，4小时布林带上轨在3380美元，3400美元整数关口也是上周金价高点附近。5日均线与MACD 指标死叉上拐，KDJ和RSI指标金叉向上，短期技术面黄金存在进一步反弹的趋势。目前上方阻力在3377-3382，下方支撑在3341- 3337，操作上徐老师建议回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅 ...

黄金、白银行情爆发中，一键布局买入金银等避险资产>>> 现货钯金日内涨幅扩大至4.00%，现报1152.33美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing a rare and unusual phenomenon where both stock markets and commodities are rising simultaneously, despite the decline in oil and gold prices [1][4][7]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Major global stock indices have seen significant increases, with the US stock market reaching historical highs after a downturn earlier in the year [1][4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3400 points, marking a new high for the year [1]. - European indices such as France's CAC40, Germany's DAX, and the UK's FTSE 100 have also shown positive performance [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Commodities like copper, aluminum, and lead have experienced price increases, with copper prices surpassing $5 and aluminum reaching a three-month high [6][25]. - In contrast, oil and gold prices have declined, with Brent crude falling from $79 to $66 and gold dropping from 3452 to 3289 [8][9]. Group 3: Underlying Factors - The rise in global stock markets is closely linked to the depreciation of the US dollar, which has fallen from 101 to 97 since May [14][13]. - The US government's intention to weaken the dollar is aimed at reducing debt pressure and encouraging capital repatriation [16][15]. - The expectation of increased US debt and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is driving market sentiment [22][21]. Group 4: Capital Flow Dynamics - The disparity in commodity price movements is influenced by US purchasing behavior, with the US prioritizing the accumulation of certain commodities while neglecting others like oil and gold [28][27]. - The capital flow towards commodities that the US is willing to stockpile indicates a strategic approach to manage future costs amid a weaker dollar [24][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming month of July is critical, with potential further interest rate cuts and significant legislative actions expected [35][34]. - The overall market sentiment is characterized by uncertainty, particularly regarding the credibility of the dollar and US debt [39][40]. - Despite the current stock market rally, there are concerns that it may be a prelude to a downturn, necessitating caution and preparation for potential risks [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation is crucial for the global capital market's trajectory in the second half of the year and could significantly impact wealth over the next few years [1][6]. Summary by Sections Legislation Overview - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, primarily benefiting corporations and wealthy individuals to attract investment back into the U.S. manufacturing sector [7]. - The legislation's core logic involves providing tax cuts for the wealthy while increasing debt to maintain fiscal spending, leading to a historical high in U.S. debt exceeding $41 trillion [7]. Debt Management Strategy - The increase in U.S. debt is seen as a means to manage the debt crisis and maintain the dollar's hegemony, despite concerns about the declining credit quality of U.S. debt [9]. - The proposed "Pennsylvania Bill" aims to convert foreign-held debt into domestic debt, reducing reliance on foreign investors [11]. Economic Measures - The strategy includes depreciating the dollar and lowering interest rates to facilitate the debt replacement process, similar to Japan's long-term economic approach [13][15]. - The U.S. government may encourage domestic institutions to purchase long-term U.S. debt, potentially mandating retirement plans to allocate a significant portion to U.S. bonds [11]. Implications for Currency and Assets - The transition to domestic debt could lead to a depreciation of the dollar, impacting its status as the world's primary payment currency [16]. - The introduction of stablecoin legislation aims to maintain the dollar's relevance in international trade, allowing for indirect use of the dollar through digital currencies [16]. Investment Opportunities - The anticipated depreciation of the dollar and U.S. debt prices may create a favorable environment for safe-haven assets such as precious metals, high-dividend stocks, and stable income bonds [16]. - The recent regulatory changes regarding cash purchases of gold signal a shift towards valuing tangible assets, indicating potential investment strategies for wealth protection [16].

近日，中国人民银行发布《贵金属和宝石从业机构反洗钱和反恐怖融资管理办法》（下称《办法》）。其 中提到，从业机构开展人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易的，应当根据《办法》规定 履行反洗钱义务。 客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易的，从业机构应当按照规定在 交易发生之日起5个工作日内向中国反洗钱监测分析中心提交大额交易报告。《办法》自2025年8月1日起施 行。 央行：8月1日起，现金买黄金超10万元需上报 日前，中国人民银行发布《贵金属和宝石从业机构反洗钱和反恐怖融资管理办法》。其中提到，从业机构开展 人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易的，应当根据《办法》规定履行反洗钱义务。客户单笔 或者日累计金额人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易，从业机构应当勤勉尽责，遵循"了解 你的客户"原则，根据客户特征和交易活动的性质、洗钱风险状况，开展客户尽职调查。 《办法》提到，客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易的，从业机构 应当按照规定在交易发生之日起5个工作日内向中国反洗钱监测分析中心提交大额交 ...

Core Insights - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is reported at 777.1 CNY per gram, up by 0.84% [1] - International gold price stands at 3351.0 USD per ounce, increasing by 0.04% [2] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern dynamics, are supporting gold prices as a safe-haven asset [2] - Emerging markets like China, Vietnam, and India are increasing their gold reserves, which is crucial for stabilizing gold prices [2] Currency Dynamics - A weakening dollar and sustained demand for safe-haven assets are driving gold futures prices higher for the second consecutive day [2] - The dollar is currently in a severely oversold condition, and any rebound could increase the purchasing cost of dollar-denominated commodities, potentially making the dollar a competing safe-haven option against gold [2] Market Supply and Demand - The gold market is experiencing a split; the U.S. market has an oversupply of gold bars and coins, leading to investor sell-offs, while the Asia-Pacific region shows strong demand, with China experiencing a 12% year-on-year increase [2] - Over 90% of surveyed central banks express intent to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months [2] Price Trends and Forecasts - Short-term gold price fluctuations are influenced by dollar movements, geopolitical factors, and market supply-demand dynamics [3] - Long-term support for gold prices is expected from ongoing geopolitical conflicts, complex economic conditions, and central banks' continued gold purchases [3] - Institutions like Galaxy Securities predict that COMEX gold prices may steadily break through 3300 USD per ounce, with extreme scenarios potentially reaching 3500 USD per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the US dollar due to uncertainty surrounding US policies, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in over a decade [1] - Analysts indicate that both the Swiss franc and the euro are primary beneficiaries as investors look for alternatives to the US dollar [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, noted that the rise of the Swiss franc occurred despite low yields on Swiss government bonds, suggesting a shift in liquidity preferences among investors [1] - There is an increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, which is putting additional pressure on the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures prices have risen for the second consecutive day, driven by a weaker dollar and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, with a daily increase of 1.7% to $3362.50 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The demand for gold remains strong due to persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, despite a recovery in market risk appetite [1] - The weakening of the dollar has further enhanced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Investment Caution - Analysts warn investors to remain cautious as the dollar is currently in a severely oversold condition, which could lead to a potential rebound [1] - A rebound in the dollar could increase the purchasing cost of dollar-denominated commodities and may also make the dollar itself a competing safe-haven choice against gold [1]