12月17日，周三，亚市早盘，现货黄金开盘就慢涨，目前来到4320美元附近，现货白银更是凶猛，九点 后开始猛涨，再次刷新历史高点并一举来到65美元上方，最高达到65.63美元。周二（12月16日），现 货黄金盘中一度跌至4272美元附近，却又迅速反弹至4335美元，最终收报4302美元，日线最终收得一阴 十字星线，基本持平。这种波动并非偶然，而是受到了美国非农就业数据、地缘政治紧张局势以及美联 储政策预期的多重影响。 基本消息面： 从非农就业数据表现来看，两个月数据呈现显著分化，利好与利空信号相互交织。11月美国非农就业人 口新增6.4万人，虽绝对值规模有限，但仍优于市场此前5万人左右的预期，一定程度上缓解了市场对就 业市场快速降温的担忧，显示11月美国就业市场存在阶段性回暖迹象。与之形成鲜明对比的是，10月非 农就业数据遭遇大幅下修，从最初公布的数值调整为减少10.5万人，显著低于初值水平，反映出10月受 政府停摆及经济短期波动影响，就业市场承压明显。 失业率指标则进一步释放利多信号，11月美国失业率升至4.6%，高于市场预期的4.4%，且创下2021年9 月以来的新高，意味着即便11月就业人口新增超预期， ...

回顾昨日黄金盘面表现，早盘于4191点位开盘后，行情先抑后扬，下方触及4170日线低点后快速止跌， 随后强势拉升，日线最高触及4221点位，尾盘小幅整理，最终收线于4208点位，日线录得一根下影线长 于上影线的倒纺锤形态阳线，多头动能初步释放，短期趋势偏暖。技术面来看，小时线级别，黄金回调 后企稳回升，均线系统呈多头排列，价格依托短期均线上行，回调力度温和且支撑有效，多头结构相对 稳固，短期上行节奏未改。今日黄金短线操作上，王召金建议以回调做多为核心思路，反弹高空为辅助 策略。上方短期重点关注4230-4250一线阻力区间，下方聚焦4190-4170一线支撑区域。 白银行情分析： 文/王召金 黄金行情分析： 早盘现货黄金维持窄幅震荡上涨走势，当前交投于4208附近，市场情绪受多重因素交织影响，整体偏向 谨慎。眼下正值美联储政策会议前夕，市场进入短暂调整阶段，投资者持币观望心态浓厚，屏息等待美 联储主席鲍威尔最新表态，以精准捕捉政策导向；同时，地缘政治紧张局势持续发酵、美元指数波动传 导，叠加日本地震等突发事件扰动，多空因素相互博弈，进一步影响黄金短期走势，而美联储为期两天 的政策会议即将启幕，成为当前金市波动 ...

当前盘面来看，其实震荡的行情改变不是很大，不管是日线周期还是H4周期，其实都没有太大的技术 改观，日线周期还是在中轨之上，是绝对的强势，只不过现在市场缺少上涨的动力，多头延续可能在本 周美联储利率决议后发生，到时候再看日线强阳的发展情况。H4周期就是标准的震荡区间，布林收 窄，均线粘合，周一的下跌看似要向下破位，但目前连阳的k线还是收高上涨，所以，区间震荡明显， 只要区间不破，就不必过分看多空的破位性行情。那么，今天的行情就先看张后看跌，亚欧盘预计会直 接上涨，4175激进可以做多，上方关注4230高点，不破就短线看，美盘可能会此压制点回落，破位再看 多头力度的延续性。 12月9日，周一现货黄金价格小幅回落，每盎司收报4190.48美元，下跌0.2%，而美国期金结算价则下跌 0.6%至每盎司4217.7美元，市场在美联储政策会议前夕的短暂喘息，投资者们正屏息以待美联储主席鲍 威尔的最新表态，同时地缘政治紧张局势、美元波动以及突发事件如日本地震，都在悄然影响着黄金的 走势。尽管金价短期小跌，但美联储鹰派降息预期、地缘政治紧张、货币波动和债券市场反应，都在为 黄金铺设长期上行路径。专家预测的5000美元目标并非遥 ...

Seasonal Demand Shifts: The conclusion of the Diwali festival in India, a major global gold consumer, also contributed to a reduction in physical demand, removing one of the key supporting tailwinds for the price.Uncertainty Over Federal Reserve Policy: While expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts initially fueled gold's rally, ongoing uncertainty and a lack of precise data (partially due to a U.S. government shutdown in late fall) have contributed to market indecisiveness. The CME Group' ...

12月4日：上交易日周三（12月3日）：国际黄金冲高回落倒垂收跌，相对于周二走势，有暗示后市将横 盘震荡整理的预期，但方向上，目前仍还是偏向看涨上行不变。 再一方面，本周还有美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率，以及下周在美联储利率决议后再公布的PPI通胀数 据，和美国11月失业率非农数据，以及美国11月CPI通胀数据等等，所以市场等待的不是12月降息前 景，而是明年的降息前景，故此，当下的调整等待也属正常反应。 再者，正常情况下，金价的反弹一般会在降息当周面临遇阻行情，所以，当下在临近下周降息会议落地 之前，表现震荡也属正常。 张尧浠认为，在下周利率会议落地之后，市场将再度回归到明年的降息周期前景之中，那么从本周到下 周的调整则可视为入场的时机和节点。因为，不管是11月非农数据和CPI数据在12月降息会议之前还是 之后公布，区别就是先涨还是后涨，其美国政府的停摆，也已经影响到了11月初的经济，故此，大概率 上，11月非农和CPI将会支撑后续的降息前景。 再加上，美联储也即将换任更加鸽派的主席，都将支撑明年的更加宽松的降息前景。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4206.58美元/盎司，短暂走强遇阻4230美元附近后，回 ...

格隆汇12月4日｜伦敦皇家资产管理公司首席投资官威尔・尼科尔警告称，受地缘政治紧张局势、经济 不确定性以及人工智能相关情绪变化的推动，市场可能面临更大波动。他表示，投资者情绪可能会从对 人工智能的狂热兴奋转向对全球整体局势的担忧。尼科尔还强调了不断攀升的债务水平，指出当前许多 国家的债务占国内生产总值（GDP）比率已远超 20 世纪 90 年代会引发经济学家警惕的水平。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite the current fluctuations in gold prices, the overall trend remains bullish due to supportive factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and strong global central bank demand for gold [1][3][4] - The market is currently awaiting key economic data, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are expected to influence future interest rate decisions and support gold prices [3][4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is seen as a pivotal moment, with expectations of a dovish shift in monetary policy that could further bolster gold prices in the long term [4] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index has shown a recent decline, which typically supports gold prices; however, the current market conditions are causing gold to experience some resistance near key levels [1][3] - The market is in a phase of adjustment, with gold prices oscillating near resistance levels, indicating a potential accumulation phase before a breakout [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions and strong demand from central banks are providing a solid foundation for gold prices, suggesting a bullish outlook for the next year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to drive oil prices upward, despite fluctuations in market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Oil prices are experiencing a tug-of-war, influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC production quotas that help limit supply [1] - The ADP report indicated a decline in hiring last month, which initially dampened WTI futures but the upward momentum was later restored [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analyst Nadir Belbarka from XMArabia suggests that while geopolitical issues and OPEC quotas support higher prices, concerns over demand and macroeconomic uncertainty are hindering a sustained price breakthrough [1] - Belbarka predicts that if the current situation persists, oil may remain in a range-bound trading pattern with a slight upward bias [1]

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report predicts a "sluggish" global economic activity in 2024, influenced by trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.6% this year, maintaining this rate until 2026, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the pre-pandemic average [1][3] Economic Risks - The report highlights risks in the economic and financial markets, particularly due to unpredictable tariff policies under the Trump administration [3] - Developing economies remain vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and punitive tariffs imposed by the US on their exports [3] Global Economic Disparities - There is a concerning gap among "Global South" economies, which account for over 40% of global GDP, half of foreign direct investment flows, and approximately 45% of goods trade, yet remain marginalized in global equity and bond markets [3] Trade and Financial Interdependence - Approximately 72% of global trade is governed by WTO's most-favored-nation rules, while 90% of international trade relies on a concentrated global financial system [3][4] - The interdependence in the short term helps avoid disruptions and signals policy adjustments, as seen in the market reactions following Trump's tariff announcements [4] Currency Dynamics - The report discusses the imbalance between the rules-based global trade matrix and the centralized global financial system, emphasizing the dominance of the US dollar [5] - Despite a decline in the dollar's share of international reserves, no suitable challenger has emerged to replace it, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization without a viable alternative currency [5]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ plans to maintain its production pause in the first quarter of next year despite ongoing weak international oil prices and signs of oversupply in the global oil market [1][2][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to pause production increases for three months, reflecting expectations of seasonal market weakness [2][3] - The organization previously accelerated the restoration of oil production in April, surprising the market, to regain market share from competitors like U.S. shale oil producers [2] Group 2: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices have been under pressure, with Brent crude rising by 2.29% to $63.81 per barrel and WTI crude increasing by 2.36% nearing $60 per barrel [1][2] - The market has experienced a fourth consecutive month of price declines due to supply-demand imbalances and expectations of future oversupply [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. threats against Venezuela, have provided some support for oil prices [3][4] - Trump's recent statements regarding military action against Venezuelan drug traffickers have raised speculation about potential escalations in U.S. military involvement [4][5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Risks - Analysts predict a record oversupply of oil in 2026, with major firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan forecasting further price declines [3] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including U.S. actions against Venezuela and potential changes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could significantly impact global oil supply dynamics [5][6]