Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices are fluctuating, while copper and gold are trending upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New home sales are experiencing a larger decline, while automobile sales are also retreating; however, summer entertainment consumption is showing signs of improvement [2] - In July, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while the drop in second-hand home sales narrowed. The market is undergoing adjustments, and the growth rate of passenger car sales is slowing down, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales increasing [2] - The box office revenue for summer films has significantly improved, with total box office surpassing 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.4% [2] External Demand - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has seen lower increases in tariffs for major economies like the EU and Japan compared to April, with China's tariffs being postponed for another three months [3] - Additional conditions require major economies to commit to investments in the U.S. and purchase energy products, with an extra 40% tariff on re-exporting countries like Vietnam targeting China [4] - July exports may see a slight decline, with a decrease in shipping weight and a drop in shipping volume to the U.S. [5] Production - The willingness to reduce production remains limited, with steel mill profits continuing to rise, leading to an increase in production [6] - Pork prices have decreased due to increased market supply, while the overall willingness to cut production remains low [7] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants is expected to rise in July, despite a temporary decrease due to weather conditions [7] Prices - Commodity prices have generally declined, with domestic rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices continuing to rise, while cement prices have decreased [8] - Gold prices are under pressure due to a softer tariff environment and the Federal Reserve's stance, while oil prices are supported by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand [8] Follow-up Focus - Future attention will be on export data and price data [9]

南非经济学家 贾米恩：我相信美国将对南非加征30%关税主要是出于政治考量。南非有一些事情没有让美国满意——南非把以色列告上国际法院，指控其 实施种族灭绝；南非政府推行黑人经济赋权政策，美国一些政客却把这称作"对白人实行种族灭绝"的行为。 美国总统特朗普7月31日签署行政令，确定了对数十个国家和地区征收的所谓"对等关税"新税率，其中对南非的关税税率为30%。南非经济学家贾米恩在接 受总台记者采访时指出，美国所谓的"对等关税"政策背后隐藏着明显的政治操控意图——凡是外交立场不"顺从"的国家，都可能成为美国贸易霸权的打击对 象。 南非贸易、工业和竞争部7月31日发布声明称，为应对美政府关税政策，南非已启动紧急措施，为受关税影响的出口企业提供咨询服务平台，为相关企业提 供市场指导，促进企业开拓多元化市场。声明指出，美国此举对南非的出口能力构成直接威胁，特别是在汽车、农业和钢铁等重要领域。南非政府致力于支 持本国就业，为出口企业提供政策支持，确保出口行业保持弹性、竞争力。 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Automotive Industry - Ford Motor Company reported its first quarterly loss of 2023 in Q2, with a loss of $800 million and a net profit decline of $36 million, attributing the losses to the unilateral tariff policy [1] - General Motors, the largest automaker in the U.S., experienced a one-third drop in profits in Q2, resulting in losses exceeding $1 billion, and forecasts a potential annual profit reduction of $4 billion to $5 billion due to tariffs [4] Group 2: Price Increases Across Industries - U.S. wholesalers and distributors plan to collectively raise prices in response to tariff impacts, with the industry valued at $8.2 trillion being identified as a major victim of the trade policy [7] - Procter & Gamble announced a 5% price increase on about a quarter of its products starting in August to offset tariff-related cost pressures, despite significant domestic investments [8] - Food giants like Mondelez and Hershey warned of potential retail price changes for consumer goods, with Hershey's tariff costs reaching approximately $15 million to $20 million in Q2, leading to price adjustments and product downsizing strategies [10]

当地时间 7 月 31 日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，确定对多个国家和地区征收 "对等关税"，税率从 10% 至 41% 不等。这一政策的落地，不仅在经贸领 域掀起波澜，从军事战略层面审视，其引发的连锁反应及对中国国防安全的潜在影响值得高度警惕。 美国对中国的关税政策虽表面定为 10%，符合中美第一轮日内瓦会谈达成的经贸协议，但这一数字背后暗藏军事领域的多重挑战。 中美贸易战曾暂停并两次延期，却并未真正结束，双方分歧依旧显著。一旦贸易战重新打响，将直接冲击两国国防工业的供应链。中国国防工业所需的部 分原材料、零部件进口可能面临更高成本或限制，影响国防装备的研发与生产进度。 累加关税对军事技术交流形成阻碍，美国此前因所谓芬太尼问题已对中国加征其他关税，累加之后的实际税负，使得中美在军事技术合作、军民两用技术 交流等领域的门槛进一步提高，不利于我国国防科技的创新发展。 技术安全隐患凸显军事防御短板，国家网信办对英伟达特供芯片展开调查，暴露出外资技术可能存在远程控制漏洞。在军事领域，芯片等关键技术是武器 装备信息化、智能化的核心支撑，一旦存在安全隐患，将直接威胁国防安全。这警示我们，在中美军事技术博弈中，必须牢牢掌 ...

美国与韩国日前达成贸易协议，根据美国总统特朗普的说法，韩国输美产品将适用15%关税税率， 美国产品在韩国则不会被征收关税。韩国国内舆论认为，韩方在这一协议作出过多让步，将蒙受不小损 失。 美国多名民主党籍参议员7月31日举行新闻发布会，抨击特朗普政府加征关税和对贸易协议夸大其 词等做法。国会参议院少数党领袖舒默说，美国企业需要确定性，但得到的是混乱和通胀。参议院金融 委员会主席表示，关税的真正代价将在未来数月得到充分体现。 瑞士政府对美方关税政策"深表遗憾"，尽管双边谈判取得进展且瑞士方面始终秉持建设性立场，但 美方仍寻求对瑞士输美商品征收单边额外关税。 央广网北京8月2日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，美国白宫7月31日 晚公布69个贸易伙伴的输美商品所适用的关税税率，这些贸易伙伴的商品在进入美国市场时将被征收从 10%至41%不等的所谓"对等关税"税率，此举在美国国内及国际上引发反对和质疑。 8月1日起，美国将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%，加拿大总理卡尼对此表示失望，称 加政府将采取行动保护加拿大的就业机会并实现出口市场多元化。 ...

美国抛出"对等关税"新表格，引发全球市场再动荡，欧美股市周五全线收跌。 截至收盘，美国三大股指全线下跌。道琼斯工业指数跌1.23%，标普500指数跌1.60%，纳斯达克指数跌2.24%。 最新数据显示美国劳动力市场明显放缓，叠加美国抛出"对等关税"新表格，导致市场避险情绪高涨。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 43588.58 | -542.40 | -1.23% | 2.45% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 20650.13 | -472.32 | -2.24% | 6.94% | | 标普500 | 6238.01 | -101.38 | -1.60% | 6.06% | 本周，道琼斯工业指数累计下跌2.92%，标普500指数累计下跌2.36%，纳斯达克指数累计下跌2.17%。 欧洲股市也全线下挫。德国DAX指数跌2.66%，本周累计跌3.27%；法国CAC40指数跌2.91%，本周累计跌3.68%；英国富时100指数跌0.7%，本周累计跌 0.57%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from approximately 70 countries, effective August 7, indicating a significant escalation in the global trade war [1][2][4]. Tariff Details - Countries with trade agreements with the U.S., such as Japan, South Korea, and the EU, will face a 15% tariff, while India will incur a 25% tariff due to the lack of an agreement [1][2]. - Syria faces the highest tariff at 41%, followed by Myanmar and Laos at 40%, with Switzerland's tariff increasing to 39% from a previously announced 31% [3][4]. - South Africa will be subjected to a 30% tariff, highlighting the low priority given to African nations in U.S. trade agreements [3]. Economic Impact - The average tariff on U.S. imports is projected to rise from approximately 2.5% to 18.4% once the new tariffs are implemented, leading to increased costs for American consumers [4]. - The new tariffs are expected to disrupt global supply chains and may lead to a shift towards regional trade agreements as countries seek to mitigate the impact of U.S. policies [6][9]. Political and Strategic Implications - The tariffs are seen as a tool for the U.S. to exert geopolitical pressure, with the intention of forcing countries to accept U.S.-led trade rules [8][9]. - The ongoing trade tensions may accelerate the fragmentation of the global trade system, pushing countries towards regional agreements like RCEP and CPTPP [9]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the tariffs, stock markets in Asia and Europe experienced declines, reflecting investor concerns over the potential economic fallout [7].

Group 1 - Malaysia has reached an agreement with the United States to reduce the "reciprocal tariff" from 25% to 19% [1] - The tariff negotiations were completed on July 31 and will take effect on August 8 [1] - Malaysia will implement zero tariffs on approximately 60% of products imported from the United States [1] Group 2 - Malaysia maintained its position on key policy issues, including not making concessions on halal certification standards and rare earth exports [1] - The Malaysian government is continuously assessing the impact of U.S. tariff rates on its economy and is taking measures to mitigate the impact on businesses [1] - Malaysian companies are encouraged to leverage existing free trade agreements with other countries and regions to diversify their export markets [1]

2025.08. 01 本文字数：2164，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 程程 据央视新闻，当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的"对 等关税"税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等。 根据该行政令，瑞士被征收的"对等关税"税率从此前宣称的31%被上调为39%，仅次于叙利亚的 41%和缅甸、老挝的40%，位列美国施加关税税率最高的国家之一。这一水平也远高于其他经合组 织成员面临的15%关税。 瑞士主要商业游说团体瑞士经济协会（Economiesuisse）发文称高达39%的税率"既不合理，也难 以理解"，对瑞士出口商来说是一个极其沉重的负担。 当地时间31日，瑞士法郎对美元也应声下跌0.4%。 瑞士手表在美售价或将上涨20%？ 瑞士联邦财政部表示，关税上调给瑞士钟表业、机械和精密仪器制造商等出口导向型企业及其供应商 带来了压力。 瑞士钟表工业联合会2024年数据显示，美国市场占瑞士手表全球出口额16.8%，每年消化价值约44 亿瑞郎的钟表商品。 投资银行杰富瑞分析师格兹尼克（James Grzinic）表示，如果39%的关税得以实施，在美产品售 价可能上涨20%以上 ...

特朗普政府加征关税举措在美国国内和海外引发广泛反对和质疑。美国多名民主党籍参议员7月31日举 行新闻发布会，抨击特朗普政府加征关税和对贸易协议夸大其词等做法。国会参议院少数党领袖舒默 说，美国企业需要确定性，但得到的是混乱和通胀，"特朗普的关税贸易战是对美国人民的一场贸易 战"。参议院金融委员会主席罗恩·怀登表示，关税的真正代价将在未来数月得到充分体现。 南非贸易、工业和竞争部长帕克斯·陶当天在一份声明中说，更高的关税对南非出口能力构成威胁，特 别是在汽车、农产品加工、钢铁、化工等关键行业。"我们正紧急并坚决地采取切实可行的干预措施来 保护就业，使南非在变化的全球格局中处于有利竞争地位。" 瑞士政府在社交媒体X上发文，对美方关税政策"深表遗憾"。贴文说，尽管双边谈判取得进展且瑞士方 面始终秉持建设性立场，但美方仍寻求对瑞士输美商品征收单边额外关税。 "对于世界其他地区来说，这是一次严重的需求冲击，"印度央行前行长、芝加哥大学布思商学院教授拉 古拉姆·拉詹1日告诉彭博电视台。"你会看到很多央行考虑降息，因为世界其他地区的经济在这些关税 影响下放缓。" 新华社消息，美国白宫7月31日晚发布公告称，美国总统特朗普当 ...