Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for June is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, which may lead to a sell-off in high-valuation technology stocks and a shift towards value stocks [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Economists predict an addition of 110,000 non-farm jobs in June, down from a previous value of 139,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - If the non-farm data falls short of expectations, funds may shift from overvalued tech stocks to value stocks [1] - Technology stocks represent 40% of the market capitalization, and a decline in these stocks could lead to an overall market downturn [1] - Weak data could also prompt the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate cut as early as July [1]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint In June 2023, the performance of ordinary stock mutual funds in China showed a significant upward trend, with 87% of the 1,026 funds reporting gains, highlighting a strong recovery in the market, particularly in technology and semiconductor sectors. Fund Performance - A total of 890 out of 1,026 ordinary stock mutual funds saw an increase in performance in June, with only 133 funds experiencing declines [1]. - The top performers included the China Europe High-end Equipment Stock Fund A and C, which achieved returns of 20.19% and 20.16% respectively [1]. - Other notable funds with over 18% gains included the Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry Stock Fund and the Xinhua Strategy Selected Stock Fund, focusing primarily on technology stocks [1][2]. Fund Manager Profiles - Fund managers of top-performing funds, such as Li Shuai of the China Europe High-end Equipment Fund, have extensive experience, with over 9 years in the industry [1]. - Zhao Qiang, managing the Xinhua Strategy Selected Fund, has a similar background, having held various positions in fund management for over 9 years [2]. Sector Focus - The funds that performed well predominantly invested in technology sectors, particularly in chips and semiconductors, with some exposure to traditional industries like automotive [1][2]. - The Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry Stock Fund's top holdings included major players like SMIC and Tencent [1]. Declining Funds - The funds that experienced declines were primarily focused on consumer stocks, with the Jiao Yin Consumer New Driver Stock Fund dropping by 4.47% in June [3]. - Other funds in the healthcare sector also saw slight declines after a period of growth, indicating a potential market correction [3]. Performance Metrics - The performance metrics for various funds indicated a clear divide between those focused on technology and those on consumer sectors, with technology funds showing robust growth [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment appears to favor technology investments, as evidenced by the significant gains in funds heavily weighted in this sector [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Demand for U.S. stocks is rising as concerns over geopolitical and trade tensions ease, indicating a broader market interest beyond just technology stocks [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Analysts note an increasing likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months, contributing to the stock market's upward momentum [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a gain of over 4% in June, reflecting strong performance across various sectors [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Many industries are outperforming the market average, suggesting that the narrative surrounding U.S. stocks is no longer solely focused on technology [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market in June is expected to have a certain downward pressure in the short term due to disturbing factors, but the bottom is relatively solid, and subsequent market trends will likely be mainly structural. Institutions suggest using dividend assets as the base position and also considering growth and consumption sectors. They are optimistic about banks, the computing power industry chain, card-based collectibles, and innovative drugs [6]. - The Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to continue a stable trend under the continuous efforts of growth-stabilizing policies, but the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and policies need to be further strengthened [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation, urging the US to correct its wrong actions and jointly maintain the consensus [6]. - The EU expressed regret over the US decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4th, which increases economic uncertainty across the Atlantic. Negotiations between the two sides are ongoing [6]. - China's manufacturing PMI in May increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, and the export container freight rate index rebounded. Experts believe that the Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to maintain a stable trend, but policy support is still needed [7]. - The Chinese logistics industry showed strong resilience in the first four months of the year, with the total social logistics volume reaching 115.3 trillion yuan from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [7]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the estimated cross-regional passenger flow in China reached 6.57 billion person-times, with an average daily flow of 2.19 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [7]. - The "involutionary" competition in the automotive industry has led to a continuous decline in the profit margin of the industry, from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.9% in the first quarter of this year, and may also affect the quality of parts [8]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut spot market has stabilized after a rise. The demand from traders and oil mills is weakening. The spot market has strong bottom support, but the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Oils: The trading volume of oils decreased on May 30th. The palm oil export from Malaysia in May increased by 17.9% compared to the same period last month, and about 17% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. The oil market lacks new positive drivers and is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Sugar: On May 30th, the sugar futures main contract showed a narrow and weak trend. The supply in Brazil has improved, and the international raw sugar has rebounded. The domestic spot price is stable, but the increase in imports is suppressing market sentiment. It is recommended to maintain a short-term bearish view [11]. - Corn: On May 30th, the corn main contract showed a trend of increasing prices with decreasing positions. The supply in the northern ports is still high, and the demand is affected by wheat substitution. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 2340 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions lightly with support at 2330 yuan [11]. - Hogs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the hog price in China remained stable. The price in the north may weaken due to the recovery of supply, and the price in the south has limited room for decline or increase. The futures main contract is oscillating around 13,500 [11][13]. - Eggs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the egg spot price remained stable. After the festival, the demand is expected to weaken, and the price will be under pressure. The futures market still faces mid - term capacity pressure [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is stable. The daily production is high, and the inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing. The demand for summer fertilizers is approaching the end, but there is still replenishment demand. The price is under short - term pressure but supported by export expectations [13]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong and the warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged on May 30th. The supply in Shandong is expected to decrease in June, and the market in East China is expected to be firm. The caustic soda 2509 contract continues to operate at a low level [13]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is sufficient, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The price of coking coal auctions is falling, and the price of coke is expected to decline further. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and weaken [13][15]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: On May 30th, the spot prices of copper and aluminum decreased. The copper and aluminum inventories are decreasing, but the overseas tariff risk still exists, and the prices are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [15]. - Alumina: On May 30th, the spot price of alumina increased slightly. The production capacity is recovering, and the supply pressure is easing. The domestic import window is gradually opening. The spot price is firm, but there is an expectation of medium - term oversupply. The alumina 2509 contract rebounds from a low level and may fluctuate around 3000 [15]. - Steel: During the holiday, the tariff risk continued, and the market sentiment was affected. The trading volume of steel decreased, and the supply - demand structure may weaken. The steel price is expected to be under pressure and weaken after the festival [15]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys changed little last week, but the prices were weak. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is not strong, and it is recommended not to chase short positions. The cost of silicomanganese is falling, and the supply - demand of alloys is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall trend of the black series [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: On May 30th, the lithium carbonate futures main contract showed an oscillating upward trend, but the trading volume decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is close to the low - level range this year, and the volatility is increasing. It is recommended to operate within the range of 59,000 - 60,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: On May 30th, the A - share market adjusted, and the trading volume exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan. The European and American stock markets had mixed performances on Monday. The impact of the previous tariff friction on the market has been digested, and the market may have short - term structural fluctuations. The large - cap stocks may be relatively dominant in the future. The technology sector is worth attention. It is recommended to participate in long positions around the gap on May 7th and consider selling straddle options [19][20][21]. - Options: On May 29th, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The basis of stock index futures decreased, and the implied volatility of options changed. Trend investors are advised to defend, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility decreases [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025Q1, the overall performance of fixed - income + funds was mediocre, with a median yield of 0.29%. The scale of fixed - income + funds increased significantly, and their proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points. The growth was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. High - performing products over - allocated technology stocks and manufacturing - related convertible bonds, and some leading products showed strong scale expansion capabilities [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q1 Fixed - income + Scale Proportion Significantly Rebounded - The performance of fixed - income + funds grew steadily in 2025Q1. The total scale increased to 138.0734 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 15.6029 billion yuan. The proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points, the first significant rebound since 2022Q1, indicating market favor [2]. - The growth in scale was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. In 2025Q1, the scale of moderately convertible bond - enhanced, stock - enhanced, and convertible bond funds increased. The moderately convertible bond - enhanced scale increased by 9.4608 billion yuan, the stock - enhanced scale by 6.6139 billion yuan, and the convertible bond fund scale by 0.3438 billion yuan compared to 2024Q4 [2]. 3.2 High - performing Products Over - allocated Technology Stocks & Manufacturing - related Convertible Bonds 3.2.1 High - performing Funds' Convertible Bond Positions Were Highly Differentiated - Among stock - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 1.54% in 2025Q1. Guotai Shuangli Bond had the highest yield of 5.49%, and Nongyin Ruikang 6 - month Holding had a yield of 2.52%. The average scale of high - performing stock - enhanced funds was 4.688 billion yuan, with 3 products exceeding 10 billion yuan [26]. - In terms of stock and convertible bond positions, the stock positions of high - performing stock - enhanced funds were mostly between 10% - 20%, with an average of 15.65%. The convertible bond positions varied greatly, with 3 products having over 10% and 7 products having less than 1% [27]. - Among convertible bond - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 3.13% in 2025Q1, outperforming stock - enhanced products. Jinying Yuanfeng ranked first with 7.81%, followed by Nanfang Guangli Return with 6.29%. Some high - performing products also had relatively large scales [31]. - High - performing convertible bond - enhanced funds showed significant differentiation in stock and convertible bond allocation strategies. The average stock position was 10.70%, and the average convertible bond position was 52.16% [32]. 3.2.2 Asset Allocation of High - performing Funds: Over - allocation of Technology Stocks and Balanced Convertible Bonds - High - performing funds had a pure - bond position of 46.2%, a stock position of 14.5%, and a convertible bond position of 23.1%. Their high returns came from over - allocating technology stocks, reducing financial stock positions, and over - allocating manufacturing - related and balanced convertible bonds [37]. - In terms of equity asset industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated technology stocks by 7.2 percentage points, cycle and pharmaceutical stocks by 3.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, and under - allocated financial stocks by 8.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [37]. - In terms of convertible bond industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated manufacturing - related convertible bonds. In terms of convertible bond types, they over - allocated balanced convertible bonds by 5.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [41]. 3.3 Leading Products Showed Strong Scale Expansion Capabilities - On average, 31.0% of stock - enhanced and 54.2% of convertible bond - enhanced funds achieved net scale growth. Some products had significant scale increases, such as Huaxia Wenxiang Zengli 6 - month Rolling in stock - enhanced funds and Zhongyin State - owned Enterprise Bond in convertible bond - enhanced funds [44]. - Many leading products had large scales. For example, E Fund Yuxiang Return in stock - enhanced funds and Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Shuangli in convertible bond - enhanced funds had large sizes [45]. - By fund company, China Europe Fund had the fastest - growing fixed - income + fund scale, with an increase of 15.461 billion yuan. After the scale changes, E Fund, Invesco Great Wall Fund, and Fullgoal Fund ranked in the top three in terms of the stock scale of fixed - income + products [48][50]. 3.4 Appendix 3.4.1 Fixed - income + Funds Increased Holdings of Financial Stocks, and the Duration of Pure Bonds Narrowed - In 2025Q1, the pure - bond position of fixed - income + funds rebounded, while the convertible bond position decreased. The proportion of pure bonds increased by 1.4 percentage points, stocks by 0.4 percentage points, and convertible bonds decreased by 1.6 percentage points quarter - on - quarter [53]. - In terms of equity holdings, the proportion of financial stocks increased by 2.2 percentage points, while cycle and manufacturing stocks decreased by 2.1 and 1.8 percentage points respectively compared to 2024Q4 [56]. - In terms of convertible bond holdings, fixed - income + funds increased holdings of manufacturing and cycle convertible bonds and decreased holdings of financial convertible bonds. The proportion of balanced convertible bonds increased by 5.4 percentage points [59][60]. - In terms of pure - bond holdings, the position of financial bonds increased, while the positions of interest - rate and credit bonds decreased. The weighted average duration of pure bonds narrowed by 0.88 years quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4.2 Introduction to Fund Classification Method - The classification is mainly based on the average stock investment ratio, average convertible bond investment ratio, and other data. For funds that can invest in stocks, those with an average stock investment ratio greater than 20% are excluded, and different types of fixed - income + and pure - bond funds are classified according to specific rules [70]. - For funds that cannot buy stocks, they are classified into pure - bond and convertible bond - enhanced funds based on the average convertible bond investment ratio [71]. - Funds with "convertible bond" in their names are classified as convertible bond funds [72].

Group 1: Fund Industry Changes - The core of the recent transformation in China's public fund industry is that fund companies must generate real profits for clients to earn higher management fees, with those failing to do so receiving only the minimum fee level [2][3] - The newly approved floating fee rate funds will adjust management fees based on the fund's performance in the first year, with a baseline fee of 1.2% [5][6] - If a fund's performance exceeds the benchmark by 6% or more, the management fee can increase to 1.5% in the following year; conversely, if performance falls below the benchmark by 3% or more, the fee drops to 0.6% [6][7] Group 2: Market Trends in Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector is experiencing renewed interest driven by a shift in consumer behavior towards "self-gratification" rather than traditional needs, with non-wedding purchases rising from 50% to 75% [11][12] - The focus in the jewelry industry has shifted from inventory levels to product strength, emphasizing unique and personalized offerings that consumers are willing to pay a premium for [12] Group 3: Market Overview - The market saw a collective adjustment with a slight index decline of 0.76%, while 3,480 individual stocks fell [13] - Despite a lack of direct selling pressure from major holders, the market is experiencing slow declines due to cautious positioning by institutions [15] - The crowdedness in small-cap stocks has reached new highs, indicating potential volatility if larger stocks rebound [16] Group 4: Technology Sector Dynamics - The technology sector has seen a significant drop in crowdedness, reaching its lowest point this year, which may indicate a potential for recovery [17] - The decline in financing balances, currently around 1.8 trillion, is directly linked to the inactivity in the technology sector, suggesting that market elasticity is low [18][19] - A revival in the technology sector is essential for generating real profit opportunities in the A-share market [20]

Core Viewpoint - DeepSeek is expected to release its R2 model, but as of now, only a minor upgrade to the R1 model has been announced, leading to speculation about the company's future impact on the tech stock market [1][3]. Group 1: DeepSeek Model Updates - DeepSeek has completed a minor version upgrade of the R1 model, which can now be tested on its official website, app, and mini-programs, while the API interface remains unchanged [1]. - The R1 model, released in January, outperformed Western competitors on several standardized metrics and was developed at a cost of only a few million dollars, causing a significant drop in global tech stocks [2]. - There are rumors that the upcoming R2 model may have a staggering parameter scale of 1.2 trillion, nearly double that of the R1 model's 671 billion parameters, but these claims have not been officially confirmed [3]. Group 2: Industry Adoption and Expansion - Despite a decline in DeepSeek's popularity, its technology is being adopted across various sectors, including education and government services, with notable implementations in Tibet and by companies like Luckin Coffee [4]. - The launch of the "藏大智言" DeepSeek platform by Tibet University and the deployment of DeepSeek's model in local government services highlight its expanding influence [4]. - Companies like Zhongke Jiangnan are utilizing DeepSeek to develop AI assistants for financial services, indicating a growing trend of integrating AI into business operations [4]. Group 3: Broader Implications and Market Trends - DeepSeek's advancements are seen as a significant milestone in achieving efficient computation and low-cost training, potentially reshaping the global AI competitive landscape [5]. - The company’s strategy of open-source and cost-effective solutions aims to democratize technology and challenge the existing Western dominance in AI [5]. - Analysts suggest that sectors such as commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy may become new market engines due to technological breakthroughs and policy support, with DeepSeek's developments playing a crucial role [6].

在行业调整期能够保持较好成长性的优质公司，未来有着更大的成长空间。 近期A股市场主要聚焦在两大主题，一是微盘股的抱团飙升，相关指数更是创出历史新高；二是红利股的稳定上涨。 今天（5月21日）早盘市场有所变化，微盘股出现一定调整，主要是因为ST板块的龙头*ST宇顺被停牌核查。红利板块表现较好，煤炭、保险、石 油等板块涨幅居前。 值得一提的是，市场较为关注的科技股近期整体表现不佳，结构性行情较为突出，比如这几天表现较好的创新药板块。另外，赛道股的核心—— 新能源龙头股有所表现，比亚迪、宁德时代两大龙头港股均创出历史新高。 比亚迪港股再创历史新高 早盘，比亚迪AH股均表现亮眼。其中A股再度突破400元/股，盘中创下404元/股的历史新高；港股一度大涨超4%并首次突破460港元/股，创出历史 新高，盘中最高价超464港元/股。截至5月20日收盘，比亚迪A股年内累计上涨近40%，港股累计涨幅接近67%。 随着股价的上涨，比亚迪的市值也水涨船高。截至5月20日收盘，该股总市值超过1.2万亿元，位居A股第八位。比亚迪作为知名大白马，曾以巴菲 特重仓而为大家所知。不过，巴菲特已减仓比亚迪港股，平均减持价格在250港元/股左右 ...

【导读】昨日股票ETF市场净流出资金64亿元，宽基ETF净流出居前 昨日（5月15日），三大股指收跌，当日股票ETF（含跨境ETF，下同）市场净流出资金约64亿元。其 中，宽基ETF净流出居前。 股票ETF单日净流出64亿元 数据显示，截至5月15日，全市场1089只股票ETF总规模达3.54万亿元。当日股票ETF市场总份额减少 41.33亿份，按照成交均价测算，当日净流出资金约为63.74亿元。 细分品类中，宽基ETF净流出居前，净流出53.37亿元。规模变化方面，宽基ETF规模下降296.85亿元。 具体到指数维度，5月15日沪深300指数单日净流出居前，达17.91亿元。 从单只基金看，上证50ETF单日净流出居前，达10.44亿元。沪深300ETF、中证A500ETF龙头等核心宽 基指数ETF均出现一定资金净流出。 业内表示，近期场内资金情绪虽有改善但在多重因素扰动下整体依然偏谨慎，因此一些资金开始对宽基 指数"获利了结"。 | | | | 5月15日股票ETF资金净流出排行 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排行 | 证券简称 ...