Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposes three important quantitative indicators for economic development: steady improvement of total factor productivity, significant increase in the consumption rate, and maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range [3][10][15] - Total factor productivity is emphasized as a new indicator to measure economic efficiency and productivity development, with strategies including optimizing traditional industries, supporting emerging industries, and promoting core technology breakthroughs [3][10][11] - The plan aims to increase the resident consumption rate by 3-5 percentage points to 43%-45%, enhancing domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [15][16][18] Group 2 - The plan outlines a clear blueprint for the next five years, with a focus on high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive deepening of reforms [4][5] - It includes twelve key tasks across various sectors such as industry, technology, domestic market, and green development, with a notable shift in priorities compared to previous plans [5][8] - The emphasis on a strong domestic market and the need to break down barriers to create a unified national market is highlighted as essential for enhancing internal circulation [24][25] Group 3 - The plan stresses the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies to maintain economic growth within a range of 4.5%-5% [3][26] - It calls for strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies, indicating a more aggressive approach compared to previous plans [26][27] - Financial policies are to be aligned with industrial development, emphasizing the importance of direct financing and the use of diverse financial instruments to support economic growth [31][32]

格隆汇10月29日｜美国总统特朗普周四对美联储提出批评，再次将矛头指向美联储主席鲍威尔，指责其 在降息问题上行动迟缓。特朗普在韩国的演讲中提到"杰罗姆·'太迟'·鲍威尔"，这引发了参加亚太经合 组织峰会的商界高管和领导人的笑声。特朗普补充说："我们不会让美联储因为担心三年后的通胀而加 息。"此言或许暗示他承认通胀最终可能加速。他预计美国经济将在2026年第一季度实现4%的增长，远 高于路透社调查的经济学家预测中值。因经济学家认为，特朗普政府新实施的进口关税仍将拖累经济增 长。周四的言论突显了特朗普与美联储之间的紧张关系，特朗普抨击鲍威尔没有迅速降息，称美联储落 后于欧洲同行，损害了商业信心。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Insights - Foreign investors have withdrawn over $17 billion from the Indian stock market this year, marking a significant decline compared to a net inflow of $20 billion in 2023, making India the worst-performing market in Asia for foreign portfolio outflows [1][2][3] - The outflow trend is primarily driven by external factors such as the strong dollar and internal issues including high stock market valuations and disappointing corporate earnings growth [3][4] Investment Trends - The report from "Ilara Capital" indicates that the largest withdrawals since July have come from U.S. funds ($1 billion), followed by Luxembourg ($765 million) and Japan ($365 million), reflecting a broader retreat from Indian markets [2] - India's allocation in global emerging market funds has dropped to 16.7%, the lowest since November 2023, while China's allocation has surged to 28.8%, indicating a shift in investor preferences [2] Economic Impact - The outflow of foreign capital is expected to exert downward pressure on the Indian rupee, which has depreciated over 3.7% against the dollar since 2025, and could lead to increased import costs and domestic inflation [4][8] - The Indian stock market's benchmark index, Nifty 50, has underperformed compared to other regional indices for five consecutive months, the longest period since 2013 [4] Regulatory Response - In response to the capital outflow, the Indian Securities and Exchange Board has introduced measures to streamline the investment process for foreign investors, including reducing approval processes and allowing overseas Indians to open investment accounts without being physically present [5][6] - The Reserve Bank of India has implemented 11 reform measures aimed at improving access for foreign investors, with a focus on enhancing the business environment and attracting foreign capital [6][7] Future Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about a short-term reversal of the outflow trend, emphasizing the need for clarity in U.S. trade and immigration policies, stability of the rupee, and evidence of reasonable stock market valuations [4][8] - Despite the challenges, some experts believe that India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, with projected economic growth rates exceeding 6.5% in the coming years [9][10]

中新社北京10月28日电题："十五五"规划建议清晰勾勒"确定的中国" 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》(简称《建议》)28日对外公布。这 份约2万字的《建议》，清晰勾勒出一个"确定的中国"。 ——经济增长的确定性。 "十四五"时期，中国经济总量连跨多个台阶，预计2025年底达到140万亿元人民币左右。外界高度关注 这种势头能否保持。 与"十四五"规划一脉相承，《建议》继续把推动高质量发展确定为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主题， 并要求"坚持以经济建设为中心""经济增长保持在合理区间"。 坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，推动量子科技、生物制造等成为新的经济增长点，促进形成 更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式......经济增长需要各领域同向发力。从产业发展 到科技创新，从国内市场到经济体制，《建议》着眼不同维度作出的上述细致部署，将为中国经济持续 增长护航。 ——发展提质的确定性。 中国反复强调，要统筹经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长。衡量质量的标尺之一，是增长数字能否让民 众"有感"。 《建议》提出的"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标中，既有"科技自立自强水平大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth, with a focus on precision and efficiency in implementation [1][2][8]. Fiscal Policy Support for Economic Development - The necessity for enhanced fiscal policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, particularly to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.5% to achieve long-term strategic goals by 2035 [2][3]. - The fiscal policy aims to address challenges such as population decline, economic restructuring, and external pressures by increasing spending and optimizing expenditure [2][3]. Investment in Key Areas - Significant investment is required in critical sectors such as modern industrial systems, technological self-reliance, and green transformation, which necessitates substantial public investment led by fiscal policy [3][4]. - Fiscal funding is essential to fill investment gaps and leverage private capital through risk-sharing mechanisms [3]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, requiring fiscal measures to enhance consumer confidence and investment willingness [4][5]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing spending and improving social security to stabilize expectations and promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4]. Promoting Social Equity - The plan aims to advance common prosperity through fiscal measures that address income distribution and enhance social welfare systems [5][6]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in reducing disparities and ensuring equitable resource allocation [5]. Addressing Uncertainties - The fiscal policy must maintain necessary spending levels to counteract increasing uncertainties and risks, including economic downturns and external shocks [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal approach is essential to provide a stable foundation for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Focus Areas for Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a proactive stance, with an expected deficit rate of 3.8% to 4.0%, potentially rising to over 4.2% during significant shocks [8][9]. - Annual issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at around 1.5 trillion yuan, targeting key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare [9][10]. Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The plan includes reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability and clarify the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11]. - Measures will be taken to improve local tax systems and reduce reliance on land finance, while also addressing local government debt issues [10][11]. Managing Local Government Debt - The strategy outlines a phased approach to resolving existing local government debt, with an annual issuance of special bonds estimated between 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan [11]. - Efforts will focus on categorizing and managing debt risks while enhancing local fiscal capabilities [11].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The necessity of a reserve requirement ratio cut is increasing due to liquidity pressure on banks' liability side in Q4, but the possibility of an interest rate cut requires further observation of economic data and tariff game impacts [3][4] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates; if an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 History of Q4 Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts - In the past 5 years, except for 2021, policy rates were generally cut twice a year but not in Q4. In 2020, cuts were in H1; in 2024, in H2; in 2022, once each in H1 and H2, mostly by 10BP, with 20BP cuts in March 2020 and September 2024 [1][10] - In 2021, there was no interest rate cut, but the 1 - year LPR was cut by 5BP in Q4. In 2024, the policy rate was cut by 20BP in September and the LPR by 25BP in October [10] - From 2020 - 2022, reserve requirement ratio cuts were about twice a year, once each in H1 and H2, and there were cuts in Q4 of 2021 - 2022. In 2020, affected by the pandemic, comprehensive and targeted cuts were used in H1 [11] 3.2 Central Bank's Stance on Monetary Policy - After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in early May this year, the policy focus shifted to the implementation of existing policies, with room for flexible adjustment based on the situation [2] - The "opportunistic" in "opportunistic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" has three meanings: adverse changes in the economic fundamentals, weakened effects of expansionary fiscal policies, and a sharp decline in the capital market [2][17] - Currently, the necessity for monetary policy to support expansionary fiscal policies may be decreasing, and the focus of monetary policy may be on supporting economic growth, which depends on macro - economic conditions [2][18][19] 3.3 Possibility of Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts This Year 3.3.1 Necessity of a Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut - Banks' liability side faces liquidity pressure in Q4, increasing the necessity of a cut. The high maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity, the need to supplement liquidity regularly under the "structural liquidity shortage" framework, and the special situation this year (large - scale high - interest time deposit maturities and a narrowing M2 - M1 gap) all contribute [20][21][24] 3.3.2 Possibility and Boundaries of an Interest Rate Cut - Since 2024, the central bank launched "policy combos" under different domestic and international macro - environments. Currently, there are similarities and differences, leading to a divergence in market expectations for loose monetary policy [28] - Although Q4 economic data is expected to slow down compared to Q3, it doesn't directly mean a window for policy intensification. It is necessary to observe economic performance from November to December and the impact of the tariff game [39][40] - To support the real economy, a cut in structural monetary policy tools may come first. And a cut may not be the only way to promote a reasonable rise in prices and reduce the real economy's financing costs. Also, a cut may put pressure on banks' net interest margins [45][46] 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - The probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is increasing marginally, but it is not a high - probability event. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and cuts in structural monetary policy tools may come first [48] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates. If an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited by the current low - interest rate level and policy imagination space brought by the "14th Five - Year Plan" [49][50]

Economic Overview - Shandong's GDP for the first three quarters reached 77,115 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year, surpassing the national average, indicating strong economic resilience [1] - The primary industry added value was 4,825 billion yuan, growing by 3.9%; the secondary industry added value was 30,150 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 42,140 billion yuan, growing by 6.1%, becoming the main driver of economic growth [1] Agriculture Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery grew by 4.3%, maintaining the same growth rate as the first half of the year [2] - Vegetable production increased by 3.1%, and fruit production grew by 2.6% [2] - Livestock production showed positive trends, with major livestock and poultry products increasing by 4.0%, and pig slaughtering up by 4.4% [2] Industrial Sector - The added value of large-scale industries in Shandong grew by 7.8%, indicating a sustained positive trend in industrial economy [3] - Equipment manufacturing saw a remarkable increase of 12.0%, significantly higher than the overall industrial growth [3] - The automotive industry grew by 17.0%, while the electronics sector increased by 16.6%, showcasing the rapid development of high-end manufacturing [3] Service Sector - The revenue of large-scale service industries grew by 5.4%, with 87.5% of industries experiencing revenue growth [4] - Consumer upgrade sectors performed well, with entertainment growing by 19.4% and business services by 16.9% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 30,386.1 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with online retail sales increasing by 17.1% [4] Investment Trends - Despite a 3.7% decline in overall fixed asset investment, industrial investment grew by 7.7%, highlighting a shift towards high-quality development [6] - High-end manufacturing investment surged, with general equipment manufacturing up by 29.5% [6] Foreign Trade - Shandong's total import and export value reached 2.62 trillion yuan, growing by 5.5%, with exports at 1.60 trillion yuan and imports at 1.02 trillion yuan [7] - Private enterprises played a crucial role, with their import and export growth at 6.8%, accounting for 75.7% of total trade [7] Social Welfare - The employment situation remained stable, with 1.059 million new urban jobs created, reflecting resilience amid economic pressures [8] - Per capita disposable income reached 33,826 yuan, with urban and rural incomes growing by 4.4% and 5.1% respectively [8]

Economic Policy Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes both short-term and long-term economic growth, focusing on technology innovation, manufacturing, and consumption[2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide detailed industry planning, which will be crucial for future economic strategies[4] - The importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing is highlighted, as a decline in this sector can lead to slower economic growth and increased foreign dependency[5] Market Trends and Predictions - Recent easing of US-China trade tensions is expected to enhance market risk appetite, contributing to a bullish market outlook[2] - The US inflation rate has decreased, with the September CPI at 3%, alleviating concerns about stagflation and paving the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[16][17] - The A-share market has seen a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points, indicating a potential upward trend in equity markets[9] Bond Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has resumed government bond trading, signaling a move to guide interest rates lower, which is favorable for the bond market in the short term[12][13] - However, the bond yield may not return to previous lows due to earlier market adjustments and ongoing risk factors[14] - Mid-term adjustments in the bond market are anticipated, influenced by changes in market risk appetite and inflation trends[14] Consumption and Domestic Demand - The focus on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption is evident, with policies expected to target healthcare, education, and elderly care sectors[6] - The government aims to stabilize employment and market expectations to support economic recovery, especially in light of declining real estate sales and consumer spending[6][7]

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a surge in market optimism, with global stock markets, oil prices, and copper prices rising in response to the positive developments from trade talks in Kuala Lumpur [1][2] - Asian stock markets experienced significant gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4000 points and the Nikkei index reaching a historic high of 50,000 points, reflecting investor confidence in improved trade relations [2] - The progress in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated concerns about economic weakness, contributing to a rise in US stock futures and commodity prices, particularly for agricultural products [3][4] Group 2 - Investors are looking for sustained signals of trade conflict resolution and effective economic stimulus measures from China, which could translate into tangible growth [4][5] - China's industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for the first nine months of the year, with a notable 21.6% growth in September, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [4] - The stability and cooperation between China and the US are crucial for global market confidence, as their trade relationship accounts for nearly one-fifth of global trade [5]

Economic Overview - Ningbo's GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1,349.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 30.11 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%; the secondary industry added value was 573.65 billion yuan, growing by 4.3%, with industrial output at 526.20 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%; the tertiary industry added value was 745.53 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% [1] Comparative Analysis - Ningbo's GDP growth rate of 5.0% is lower than the national average of 5.2% and the provincial average of 5.7% [2] - The secondary industry's added value growth of 4.3% is also below the national and provincial levels by 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively [2] - The city's fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of 18.1%, contrasting with a national decrease of 0.5% and a provincial decrease of 3.8% [2] Foreign Trade Performance - Ningbo's total import and export volume exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1,092.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, which is below the national growth of 4.0% and provincial growth of 6.2% [3] - The city's foreign trade dependency is notably high at 78.3%, significantly above the national average of 32.5% and the provincial average of 58.4%, indicating greater vulnerability to external shocks [3] Future Outlook - Ningbo aims to achieve a GDP of over 2 trillion yuan by 2025, with a current GDP of 1,814.77 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a close competition with Nanjing [1] - The city faces challenges in maintaining economic momentum and is urged to enhance efforts in stabilizing and improving economic conditions [3]